[MAFIA] Quantum Mafia: Schrodinger's Scum

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Odysseus S. Grant: Oct 12, 2011; Cats is the oldest and strongest emotion
of mankind

How exactly did peoples scumchance change last night?

# ? Oct 27, 2015 01:37

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# ? May 5, 2024 01:15

AnonymousNarcotics: Aug 6, 2012; we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back

I'm really not understanding how and why the percentages will change.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 01:41

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Everyone started at 83% town, 16% scum. I'm guessing that the people who were investigated and returned town had their scum chance go down, and the people who were investigated and returned scum had their scum chance go up. Not sure how exactly "Lock" is affected.

We're getting three people who say they investigated AnonymousNarcotic though, so maybe that's player 1?

# ? Oct 27, 2015 01:41

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

That would make sense. Since AN was popular, voting AN could dramatically narrow our reality.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:01

Kashuno: Oct 9, 2012; Where the hell is my SWORD?; Grimey Drawer

That's a good point. Good thinking gang

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:05

AnonymousNarcotics: Aug 6, 2012; we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back

Voting anyone would dramatically narrow our reality. Let's not get rid of the person who came up town more times than not.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:21

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Conversely, if I'm reading this right, the 82% lock chance and 15% scum chance means that Player 1 has an 82% chance to be vanilla town, a 15% chance to be some brand of scum, and a 3% chance to be the cop. If our goal is to not lynch the cop, that player might be a good bet.

Then again, the lock chance confuses me, and I guess the cop chance is supposed to be hidden? Does investigating someone reduce their chance to be cop? :psyduck:

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:33

imgay: May 12, 2014; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

I think the hook is though that we don't know each others player numbers

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:44

Kashuno: Oct 9, 2012; Where the hell is my SWORD?; Grimey Drawer

Lock is the percentage of realities that their current role is their actual role, so far as I understand it.

A player with a high lock and a high chance of scum, for example, is most likely scum,

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:02

garthoneeye: Feb 18, 2013

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Conversely, if I'm reading this right, the 82% lock chance and 15% scum chance means that Player 1 has an 82% chance to be vanilla town, a 15% chance to be some brand of scum, and a 3% chance to be the cop. If our goal is to not lynch the cop, that player might be a good bet.

Then again, the lock chance confuses me, and I guess the cop chance is supposed to be hidden? Does investigating someone reduce their chance to be cop?

Investigating someone increases their chance of being cop.
When you investigate you eliminate universes in which you're the cop. This the total number of universes where the target is not the cop has decreased.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:06

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

Jedit posted:

code:

           Good Evil Dead Lock
Player  1:  84%  15%   0%  82%
Player  2:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  3:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  4:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  5:  82%  17%   0%  72%
Player  6:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  7:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  8:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  9:  85%  14%   0%  76%
Player 10:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player 11:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player 12:  83%  16%   0%  74%

Remaining universes: 962

Yeah, if Player 1 investigated and somehow passed their certainty roll (that's what happens first, right?) then I'm reading this to be they're more likely to be the cop, or at least town.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:12

Kashuno: Oct 9, 2012; Where the hell is my SWORD?; Grimey Drawer

I'm down for ending speculation until after n1

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:21

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Jesus christ why does everybody in that sample game thread have a dragon avatar

Do I want to know?

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:35

Meinberg: Oct 9, 2011; inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)

I also investigate AnonNarco and got a Not Evil response, so I think it's highly likely that Narco is player 1.

I recommend voting out someone else.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:55

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

Fair enough.

##Unvote

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:58

Meinberg: Oct 9, 2011; inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Since we're doing that, AnonymousNarcotics isn't evil. I also tried to nightkill AnonymousNarcotics but that was before I got the PM saying I didn't get to nightkill on night 0.

Look at this guy though, just jumping at the chance to be a scumbo. My scumdar is pinging pretty hard right now.

##vote Pittsburgh Lambic

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:59

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

Is this a timeline where you have a scumdar? Because you could just think you have one.

Regardless, it's worth a shot.

##vote Pittsburgh Lambic

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:10

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

The only way to find out is to open the box and see if the cat's town, scum, or the cop :allears:

The cat dies when we open the box, but you gotta make sacrifices, you know?

##vote Pittsburgh Lambic

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:15

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Seriously I'm not seeing too much in the way of other productive discussion happening today. If anyone wants, I can try claiming which player I am.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:16

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Alternately we can wait and see about lynching an inactive.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:21

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Alternately we can wait and see about lynching an inactive.

That sounds like a good idea too.

But of course, this could be a timeline in which everyone is active.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:25

garthoneeye: Feb 18, 2013

Yeah, voting lurkers is extra good in this game because there is as likely a chance of them being scum as anyone else really.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 04:50

imgay: May 12, 2014; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

So does lynching actually kill the player or does it just shorten their possibilities?

# ? Oct 27, 2015 05:43

garthoneeye: Feb 18, 2013

Actually kill.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 05:52

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

There was an effort post here about what lynching can give to us but I'll sum it up by saying we should lynch today and see what happens.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 07:06

imgay: May 12, 2014; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Is there a votefinder?

# ? Oct 27, 2015 07:48

MatchaZed: Feb 14, 2010; We Can Do It!

Apologies for being super inactive, I have been sleeping/busy in all possible timelines.

Speaking of, what is everyone's favourite quantum fiction?

Got Rather Watch Them as !scum. Their suggestion to lynch today and see what happens notwithstanding.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 08:05

Odysseus S. Grant: Oct 12, 2011; Cats is the oldest and strongest emotion
of mankind

This thread got a whole lot more complicated overnight.

As far as I see it, it doesn't really matter who we lynch, seeing as our results last night were completely random.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 08:52

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Jesus christ why does everybody in that sample game thread have a dragon avatar

Do I want to know?

It's nothing fet-based. Malazan Empire is a forum for readers of Steven Erikson's Malazan Book of the Fallen series and I believe they award avatars by post count. In the books dragons are all ancient shapeshifters so high volume posters get dragon avatars, and regular Mafia players post a lot.

I've added a Votefinder tracker to post #2 along with the probability matrix.

Jedit fucked around with this message at 09:19 on Oct 27, 2015

# ? Oct 27, 2015 09:17

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Jedit posted:

It's nothing fet-based. Malazan Empire is a forum for readers of Steven Erikson's Malazan Book of the Fallen series and I believe they award avatars by post count. In the books dragons are all ancient shapeshifters so high volume posters get dragon avatars, and regular Mafia players post a lot.

I've added a Votefinder tracker to post #2 along with the probability matrix.

Thanks for the explanation!

Rather Watch Them posted:

There was an effort post here about what lynching can give to us but I'll sum it up by saying we should lynch today and see what happens.

I agree with that. It seems to me like we won't really have any big cascading effects (people losing investigative powers, other people having their cop chance go way up) until we get a cardflip.

Cardflips in this game do seem to take the form of opening Schroedinger's box. Each player is both town and scum as long as he is alive, but once his box is opened, he's fixed as being one or the other, and all the realities where his role would make certain actions impossible come to an end.

Basically, it's :psyduck:

: The Game.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:28

Ghostwoods: May 9, 2013; Say "Cheese!"

I investigated Meinberg. He's probably not evil.

I don't want to vote for Pittsburgh Lambic. I like turtles :unsmith:

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:36

Ghostwoods: May 9, 2013; Say "Cheese!"

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

If anyone wants, I can try claiming which player I am.

Would that make any difference to the percentages though? Whatever you claim, you could be lying, so it shouldn't collapse down any parallel realities.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:43

Pittsburgh Lambic: Feb 16, 2011

Ghostwoods posted:

Would that make any difference to the percentages though? Whatever you claim, you could be lying, so it shouldn't collapse down any parallel realities.

It wouldn't; I was thinking at the time that dropping claim could provide additional insight when/after I was lynched about how the mechanics would work going forward. Not sure how useful that would be now.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:51

AnonymousNarcotics: Aug 6, 2012; we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back

I feel bad lynching anyone since technically everyone is town.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:58

AnonymousNarcotics: Aug 6, 2012; we will go far into the sea
you will take me
onto your back
never look back
never look back

Although everyone is scum too

# ? Oct 27, 2015 14:59

Ghostwoods: May 9, 2013; Say "Cheese!"

AnonymousNarcotics posted:

Although everyone is scum too

Hm. There is that.

Well, I guess there's just one thing for it. Random.org, activate!
... 9.

Ninth person on the list of players in the first post is Carbon Dioxide.
##vote Carbon Dioxide.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 15:06

Double May Care: Mar 28, 2012; We need Dragon-type Pokemon to help us prepare our food before we cook it. We're not sure why!

Carbon dioxide is also second most inactive to WilliamAnderson.

##Unvote

##Vote Carbon dioxide

# ? Oct 27, 2015 19:02

Kashuno: Oct 9, 2012; Where the hell is my SWORD?; Grimey Drawer

##vote nolynch I DENY YOUR REALITY.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 19:06

MatchaZed: Feb 14, 2010; We Can Do It!

##Vote Carbon dioxide

I'll hop on a bandwagon. Someone is dying soon enough. It could possibly be me!

# ? Oct 27, 2015 19:14

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# ? May 5, 2024 01:15

Meinberg: Oct 9, 2011; inspired by but legally distinct from CATS (2019)

Kashuno posted:

##vote nolynch I DENY YOUR REALITY.

This is super scummy!!!

##vote Carbon Dioxide

But I'd rather vote out inactive people.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 19:14

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Video Games > Let's Play! > [MAFIA] Quantum Mafia: Schrodinger's Scum

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