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Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Sign me up.

Is the Town Cop the equivalent of Werewolf's seer?

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Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

One thing I was wondering about, and I was hoping someone with good knowledge of probabilities can tell me...

What, if any, are the long term effects from almost everyone investigating the same person in night 0 vs. (almost) everyone investigating a different person in night 0?

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Oh, apparently you get voted on for not having time to post in this thread during sleep and work?

Oh well, whatever. If I'm gonna die anyway, I'll just say what I got in case my death roll makes me the cop.

My investigation result was that WilliamAnderson is not evil.

I'll join the OTHER one-person band-wagon and

##vote meinberg

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

In my defense, I would like to say that global warming is a lie.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Kashuno posted:

C02 have you played here before?

No. The only reason I noticed this thread is because it was posted in Let's Play. I usually don't venture into the Game Room subforum. Last time I did a forum game of mafia/werewolf was years ago. I was intrigued by the quantum thing so I decided to sign up to see how it goes.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

I thought of one strategy: if we lynch someone that, according to an investigation, is scum, and they do turn out to be scum, the person who did the investigation is more likely to be cop. So at night, when we're all playing the remaining scum, it's a good idea to kill the person who's more likely to be cop. But during the day, when we're all playing villagers, you want to protect the cop.

We're basically quite literally different people at night and at day.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Cathulhu posted:

Also: My investigation was Ghostwoods scum.

##unvote
##vote Ghostwoods

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

This is a bit weird. If you both say Jedit reversed your actions and the result of your investigation, you tell everyone who you... or your scum quantum doppelganger (SQD) tried to kill. Which is more information than you'd give normally.

Another thing I realized just now - the universe in which you are the cop and the universe in which you are scum are by definition not the same. That means that your own investigation results are by definition useless for deciding who you want to target for your night kill (assuming your SQD tries to win as scum, instead of having its universes deleted to help out townie you). If anything, SQD has the best chance of winning by targeting people that are scum according to cop you. And cop you ALSO wants to kill scum in their universes.

So the best general strategy would be to convince people that your investigation turned up the True Scum. If they kill that person, you increase both the chances of ending up in an universe where you're good and scum is dead, and of ending up in an universe where you're scum and you helped kill off a good guy.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. I'm sharing all this because one personal goal of playing this game is to understand if there's any kind of strategy possible in quantum mafia at all. Seems there might be, but it takes some mind-bending thinking.


Anyway, investigation told me that Kashuno's a good guy.

----
Disclaimer: This quantum version of CO2 does not necessarily condone the actions of his quantum doppelgangers.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

... Does the above also mean that for people who got only not evil investigation results so far, the best strategy is to vote for people who are *not* scum according to others either? That would make this game a lot more interesting. I have to think about this.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Dammit guys I wanted to shoot Kashuno too but the mod didn't let me because he switched around my things too.

Why can't I join in the fun? :(

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

I agree, if only because nobody seems to have anything sensible to add to the discussion at this point.

##vote nolynch

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

garthoneeye ain't scum.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

I'd rather hear Jedit's hints after this game is finished. The after-game discussion should prove interesting no matter what.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Cathulhu posted:

I shot Kashuno, and lied about my n0 investigation.

##vote Cathulhu

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

loving hell I did something stupid and picked someone for investigation that I had investigated before. Feel like a moron.

To make up for this, I'll post the analysis sheet I made last night.



Jedit: I have a gameplay question. According to my analysis the alpha scum died. Is it possible in this game for a lynched person to roll beta scum while the alpha scum is still alive or not? Not that it really matters much, just out of curiosity.

Carbon dioxide fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Nov 4, 2015

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Jedit posted:

Night 0 actions processed

code:
           Good Evil Dead Lock
Player  1:  84%  15%   0%  82%
Player  2:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  3:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  4:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player  5:  82%  17%   0%  72%
Player  6:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  7:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player  8:  83%  16%   0%  75%
Player  9:  85%  14%   0%  76%
Player 10:  83%  16%   0%  74%
Player 11:  81%  18%   0%  72%
Player 12:  83%  16%   0%  74%

Remaining universes: 962
It is now Day 1. Go to.

Pittsburgh Lambic posted:

Everyone started at 83% town, 16% scum. I'm guessing that the people who were investigated and returned town had their scum chance go down, and the people who were investigated and returned scum had their scum chance go up. Not sure how exactly "Lock" is affected.

We're getting three people who say they investigated AnonymousNarcotic though, so maybe that's player 1?

These are the most relevant posts for that thought.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Well, if no-one else has anything to add, I rather vote on someone who can't possibly the cop. (Maybe in this game voting for the cop is better because it confirms it but it feels wrong, so I won't)

##vote Rather Watch Them

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

imgay posted:

Has any documented who can't be the cop yet?

I have, check the graph I posted a bit earlier on this page.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Alright then.

##unvote
##vote WilliamAnderson

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

I couldn't investigate myself, obviously. So, got a result of Rather Watch Them = evil.

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

No big changes in my huge chart, except for the investigation tallies.

This is counting all posted investigations from everyone who has a chance of being cop (everyone alive except Rather Watch Them)
code:
Name      | is good | is evil
narc      |    2    |    0
imgay     |    4    |    0
Meinberg  |    3    |    0
garth     |    2    |    1
RWT       |    3    |    1
CO2       |    2    |    0
Hiipfire  |    0    |    0

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

That sounds like a sensible choice.

##Rather Watch Them

Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Wait. garthoneeye, your vote and mine weren't in the right syntax. Let's try that again.I could've sworn they were accepted by the 2nd post yesterday

##vote Rather Watch Them

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Carbon dioxide
Oct 9, 2012

Edit: check the Jedit post at the end of last page. :)

Holy crap that went fast at the end.

Time to talk strategy, because this game is weird enough that a normal Mafia strategy wouldn't work anyway.

So I was player 11, which means I had a slightly above average scum percentage for most of the game. That's why I decided to... uh, mostly play as scum but keep my options open in case I wasn't. For my night kill I mostly tried killing the cop. Other than that, it didn't really matter. Targeted imgay when it was clear they weren't scum because nobody was gonna vote them out during daytime anyway. I might also have tried to target possible competitor scum in order to remove those universes.

I knew that for the last day when I was active, Hiipfire was very likely to be the cop - and there was a reasonable chance they had checked me and gotten scum, which is why I specifically did not indicate I wanted to see his investigation result. It would've meant my death. Hiipfire had been a lazy poster for the entire thread so I felt quite lucky. In the end I didn't turn out to be scum so whatever. I did the correct thing there.

During day time, I was completely honest. By themselves, cop results were useless anyway, so better to share them, right? Besides, if I *was* the cop I wouldn't be scum so everything would work out. I voted for possible other scum, which makes sense: either I am scum and it's better to be certain ASAP, or I'm not and it's a good thing to kill wolves. No point in tricking people during daytime, while your role isn't defined yet. I also made the graph, that as far as I could tell was correct. I did keep my scum targets for myself - those could end up becoming discriminating evidence. And I didn't post updates to the chart afterwards, at first because nothing much happened, later on because my chance of being good seemed to drop. No point in posting charts if it might end badly for me.

To conclude... this game might've been more interesting if our cop Hiipfire had been a more active poster. I might also have died earlier. Other than that - I have no idea if my strategy actually made any sense, it's still not completely clear to me how this game is supposed to work.

I hope Jedit can post his thoughts here, he saw all people's percentages change up close, and he might understand more of the strategy involved. I thought it was kinda weird that Jedit kept saying that there will be one universe left REAL SOON but then it wouldn't happen until the end of the game.

So, that's my thoughts on this game.

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