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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Most US businesses who install solar panels get them from China, so this will hurt a lot of people.

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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

lmao

It's sadly not a shock that all the people who actually know what the gently caress they are talking about w.r.t c.c. have stopped posting i.t.t.

Just stop engaging with him.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I think I agree with you. We could see some terrible climate catastrophe within a few years (dodged a bullet with some of the hurricanes, I think,) which when combined with our deteriorating geopolitical situation could lead to a near-term future that is pretty bleak in many areas. But we won't be extinct within 10 years (9 now, I guess?) like Guy prophecizes.

But for anyone who thinks that the 2040s are going to look much like today, with the seas up a little bit maybe, that just seems completely impossible to me. We'll be well on our way to a new climate regime, it will be getting worse every year at an accelerating pace, and there will be no options left to stop it. Day to day life will be greatly different, more difficult, and with different concerns, than it is now.

If I had to place more or less unfounded bets, I think there's a reasonable chance of some awful climate change-related event within a few years that serves as an undeniable wake-up call, but in the next decade or two we will just double down on geoengineering to buy more time and avoid really reducing carbon emissions, with uncertain effects (certainly in the long term, where the heat we defer could come back with a vengeance.)

Given that sulfides are having a real effect on the current temperatures, it seems unavoidable that we will go heavy into purposeful geoengineering before long.

Mozi fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Feb 20, 2018

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Really, we're not all that far off from some places on Earth being hot and wet enough at times to literally kill you. Places that are populated and where lots of people don't have air conditioning.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Perry Mason Jar posted:

It'll be locked in in five years.

https://gritpost.com/humans-extinct-climate-change/

edit: Note that Anderson says that within these five years we'll need geo-engineering, too.

Not to say he's wrong, but that's not a persuasive article and I can't find any links to his actual speech.

That said his recommendation I entirely agree with. It's what the world should be preoccupied and united about now, we're missing our last chance and future generations will hate us.

Mozi fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Feb 20, 2018

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I truly hope you live long enough to choke on your own poo poo.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Hey, look at the glass half full - out of the over 1.5 million years of human existence on this Earth, our children will get to watch the end! Isn't that exciting!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I don't want to bet the future of the planet on 'we'll figure it out, trust me!'

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Let’s not be unreasonable here - it’s not that nobody should have children, it’s just that 0.05% of us should have children.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
He's never changed his mind or argued in good faith; argue with him for the benefit of anybody still watching, or just put him on ignore like the rest of us did a long time ago.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Burn'em if you got'em.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I have a metal roof and it's 30 years old and has some dents but is otherwise fine.

Hope this helps!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

StabbinHobo posted:

I'm not comfortable with all this agreement/positive-feedback, so let me add some spice.

If you take the inverse of that list, you get:
- 2 or 3 children
- "two car family"
- single family detached housing
- yearly family vacation + quarterly business travel
- really into barbecue

Those are the people that future generations will look back at like we do the germans who pretended not to notice the camps.

Also it's 2018 and we're still talking about maybe eating less meat instead of continuing a massive international energy revolution.

Not to say these are bad things to do by any means but they are really more for making yourself feel better about what is happening than affecting the final result in any meaningful way. Certainly those who are fighting for local or state legislation are doing important work but unfortunately I can't see how the numbers add up in a positive way. How many fewer steaks do I need to eat to counterbalance Trump pulling us from the Paris accords, which we were never going to meet anyways?

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
You know what? Go for it. Good luck, and I mean that.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
China's Coal Use Climbs Despite Pollution Plans

quote:

China's coal consumption appears to be rising at a rapid rate in 2018, erasing several years of low growth and environmental restraint.

In the first five months of the year, China used 870 million metric tons of "thermal" coal, a 12-percent increase from a year earlier, the government's top planning agency said on June 21.

...

The country was by far the world's largest source of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, accounting for 27.6 percent, the annual review estimated.

China's CO2 emissions rose 1.6 percent in 2017 after declining in the previous two years, it said.

...

The influence of government regulatory measures on coal and emissions can also be seen in NBS steel data for the first five months, covering the period both before and after the winter curbs.

The statistics suggest that steelmakers simply shifted their output to other parts of the country to avoid smog controls in the northeast, setting a series of production records while cashing in on high prices from market reactions to the winter limits.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
People aren't going to go extinct soon (though many other beings will,) but the warming isn't going to stop at 2c or whatever. If we could see what things actually are like 300 years in the future, we might not be so sanguine.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Hooray!

100 Million Barrels: The World Hit a Daily Oil and Liquids Record

quote:

The world is pumping out more oil and other petroleum liquids than ever before.

Global supply rose to 100.3 million barrels a day in the third quarter, the International Energy Agency said Friday in its monthly oil market report. Output, which includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gains, was 2.3 million barrels above the same period last year and 1.3 million barrels a day higher than the second quarter.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I'm so depressed about all of this (and more or less everything going on in the world today) and it seems to me that depression is a rational response to this so it feels to me that it is right for me to be depressed.

Also when articles end like this:

quote:

At stake is the prosperity—and survival—of generations to come. And there’s no time to lose. So if politicians aren’t paying attention, it’s up to citizens to make their voices heard louder than ever.
Yeah, I'm sure that will really kick in any day now. Surely the new IPCC report is still the talk of the town!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Yeah, I know I should probably talk to somebody about it. It's just... I don't want to, because I should be depressed, because everything is depressing.

I know this is all really sad-sack-y but I did kind of at least need to get this much off my chest somewhere.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Or jellyfish and flies, as those are two animals that will benefit greatly from climate change.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I think as long as you prepare and make your own and your family's life as comfortable and stable as possible and help out with your local community that's about the best you can hope for.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Maybe peace and love wasn't such a bad idea after all.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Sundae posted:

Get help.

You should direct that towards the human species in general rather than at those perceptive enough to see the problem.

2 + 2 = we're hosed. People deal with that in all sorts of ways but, I mean, we're hosed.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
It would be hard for you to prove that, considering it is impossible.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

The Dipshit posted:

Out of a dozen years. Yeah, we'll be cutting it more than a little close. On the positive side, maybe some CCS might make it out of the R&D pipeline into something usable for rapid deployment.

I'd bet money we start geoengineering before very long (though really from my perspective we've been geoengineering since the first steam engine was invented.)

Releasing sulfides into the atmosphere will seem like a cheap and easy way to buy some more time and I really think that once thing start getting worse noticably quickly it will be jumped on. The bad parts are a) it will likely cause severe droughts in heavily populated areas that depend on the monsoon season, b) probably other unpredictable effects, and c) if for some reason we halt the releases after starting them we're double screwed so once you start you can't stop, even if it turns out to mess up agriculture across a vast swathe of the globe.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

Flowers For Algeria posted:

I know this has been mentioned time and time again in the thread but do you know which study/studies this comes from?

I found it!

http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockStratAerosolGeo.pdf

Right in the abstract, in the middle of the 2nd paragraph.

"The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates from gradual global warming."

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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
I’m glad that would make you feel better and it may well be therapeutic but many of us will not be fundamentally cheered by actions that have 0 effect on the eventual outcome, which is true of the examples you cite.

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