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The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Paradoxish posted:

No, it definitely makes people depressed.

I went to school for chemical engineering and environmental science, so a lot of the classes I took had people who were going for pure science degrees and a lot of those people were doing environmental/climate concentrations. I've been out of school for years now and none of the people I met and kept in contact with were sad sacks at the time, but a whole lot of them are now. A girl I dated briefly and stayed in touch with called me out of the blue (literally the only time I had spoken to her in years outside of text/email) a couple of years ago in tears because her and her fiancee had decided they couldn't in good conscience ever have children and she didn't know who else to talk to about it. She's doing a phd in some kind of atmospheric research.

A lot of other people I've stayed in touch with basically only ever talk to me about bad news, and that 100% was not true five or more years ago. This is a topic that can really gently caress with you no matter how naturally optimistic you are. The fact that there are people in this thread who just want to have their sadbrains validated probably isn't something that's true on a wide scale.

It's rough as hell accepting that, with all the hosed up and crazy poo poo going on in the world, that we're at the top of of a big loving drop in the next few decades.

I mean, I blandly guess that 2/3rds to 3/4ths of humanity's total population will get wiped from it and I try not to think too hard about the implications beyond the fraction itself. There is no real "victory" against this. It's just how hard we can push to reduce the damage.

Also, as self care, I rarely poke into this thread. :v:

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The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

MiddleOne posted:

Doesn't sound like it would scale well in practice at all.

Beats batteries though, but yeah, it probably has some serious issues.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

starkebn posted:

"we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas!"

Truth, it IS totally worth a try.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Son of Rodney posted:

I've remained relatively optimistic over the last few years, but this year has kinda pushed me back deep into the depressive phase of the cycle. My gf and me are currently decreasing our footprints and waste significantly, but if feels absolutely hopeless.

Im gonna go ahead and try my damndest to remove my Personal impact tho, at least it gives me something to do. My current goal is to spend the next year without buying anything new apart from food and basic neccecities, switching completely to a vegan diet and to not fly. The last year's I've gone on average 3 trips by plane and that is basically half my total budget.

Apparat from that I'm giving money to an Organisation that compensates co2, is this actually doing something or just a feel good measure?

Don't mind oxxidation, that's just his/her posting gimmick. While what you do individually won't turn the tide on its own, you'll be much more ready to deal with the future than most everybody else.

We'll collapse, have several centuries of awful, awful garbage, and probably figure things out from there.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rime posted:

Accessible liquid hydrocarbons are gone. Accessible coal is gone (except really poo poo stuff, like the bagger fields of Germany). Surface minerals are gone. Subsurface minerals are tight. Fish are vanishing worldwide. Insects are vanishing. We don't know the long term health ramifications of the microplastics now showing up in loving Everything, Everywhere, could be nothing, could be worse than asbestos and on a global scale.

I'm not saying we're likely to go extinct as a species, but the chances of us ever recovering to punch higher than Roman level development in the event that civilization completely falls apart is unlikely, and even that seems optimistic given the staggering scale of non-renewable resource depletion and widespread pollution which we've engaged in over the past 75 years.

Our species had one shot, but we're within a millimeter of loving it up forever and sitting here suffering until the next deep impact event does us in for good.

Which seems fair, given the amount of blood we'll have on our hands as a species by the time this is done.

Yeah, it'll be a fairly low power future for quite a while, but "yeah, we'll never surpass the Romans" is a fairly strong statement. Like, yeah, all the steel we've made will evaporate and not be the new surface mines, all the libraries will explode and we'll never have anything better than massive slave plantations.

I get the feeling that this is the a fundamental disagreement that'll be found between a pessimistic person and an optimistic one, so I get the feeling we'll just be talking past each other on this one.

:shrug:

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Socks4Hands posted:

the 2011 posts are pretty great:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246860691730165X#sec2

I mean, yeah, it's doable and that post was not wrong. It's also not going to happen, either.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

There is not one miserable person in this thread that I believe for even a second that if a scientist called a meeting and demonstrated he could pull 100 million tons of carbon out of the atmosphere for a dollar in a scalable way and that climate change was canceled that I believe would then become happy instead of being angry and desperately trying to find the next thing that justifies their misanthropy and personal lovely pessimism.

Nah, I post in here from time to time.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Made by who? Over the next 50 years china and india are going to have almost 3 billion people waking up and asking "why don't we have a middle class?" and the sacrifices you've decided you would be willing for them to make will literally not matter.

When they decide they want tvs and cars and college educations the only solution possible is to have the good cars and tvs all ready so they want those or some equivalent they like better. If that technology is impossible then too bad, they will just use the regular old cars and tvs and either the world will die or we will adapt or whatever, a bunch of ideals about self sacrifice won't come into it at all.

Over the next 20 years they'll quite likely have a billion climate refugees between them. I think you don't appreciate the problem here. :v:

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Conspiratiorist posted:

Both are countries that hate each other's guts, that have gone to war against each other in the recent past, that have existing border disputes, that constantly blame each other for instigating terrorist attacks on their respective soils, and as the Indus dries up Pakistan looks to its neighbor who says "tough luck" while siphoning the water they need to sustain their own agriculture.

But I mean, I guess they could also find a compromise.

If they do find a compromise, I'll have high hopes of us figuring out how to have a high tech civilization through climate change.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

How are u posted:

The Himalaya water all 3 of those nations. The glaciers that feed those rivers ain't gonna be around in 80 years.

try getting super tight with regards to usage in 20-30 years. Thus the concern.

http://www.grida.no/resources/6674

The Dipshit fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Nov 6, 2018

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Jack2142 posted:

Its okay in 20-30 years we will have fusion powered desalination plants right?... right? :eng99:

Happy thoughts, desalination will probably be much, much less energy intensive than it is currently. People are doing cute things with graphene oxide as a filter material and that stuff is cheap as dirt.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Nocturtle posted:


It's interesting that solar continues to decrease in cost, ignoring the usual issues of intermittent generation and grid compatibility. Nuclear costs are going up?

I'd believe it, especially if this analysis is focused on the US (isn't it?). The entire supply chain is kinda dog poo poo and poised to get worse. I'd like to see how China and India is doing with nuclear costs, since they are building it out, China especially, since they are going from 4% and shooting for 15-20% by 2030 or so with total capacity.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

gmq posted:

Even if one country or two get all gung-ho about it, how do you get the rest of the world to follow suit? Even the threat of war wouldn't be enough, and if war does happen, how do you get all the economies running again after its end (if they manage to end it fast enough)? All the solutions seem to depend on somewhat healthy economies.

US/China/EU are pretty much the big three political blocs that need to change. Resource extraction nations like Saudia Arabia aren't going to be dictating much if nobody wants to buy oil for burning.

The above three blocs can lean *hard* on Brazil and the DRC, if needed. How to get the top three to get moving in sync is the biggie.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

gmq posted:

I think of those three China is the only one that actually has the political capability to mobilize quick enough to do something (but that doesn't mean they will). The USA has a climate change denier as president for two more years (if not 6).

So... welp?

Out of a dozen years. Yeah, we'll be cutting it more than a little close. On the positive side, maybe some CCS might make it out of the R&D pipeline into something usable for rapid deployment.

The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Rime posted:

If that gets to the voting stage, let alone passes, let alone achieves a single one of those bullet points in under ten years, I will eat a leather shoe on live streamed video.

Sounds like a :toxx: to me.

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The Dipshit
Dec 21, 2005

by FactsAreUseless

Trainee PornStar posted:

Just checking I got this right.. So somehow we have to reduce our Co2 emissions while simultaneously emitting enough black carbon & aerosol to stop even more warming?

Crap! we really have baked in a hard time for ourselves :(

"The last thing we de-carbonize is airline flights" is probably the shortest summary. That being said, it is going to be one hell of a ride, yeah.

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