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rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy

Trent posted:

This nightmare scenario makes no sense. What would ask this robot manufacturing be making? Why would the capital class want to make a bunch of stuff if no one else can buy it? They can't all just sell yachts to each other for very long.
If you had an army of robots who could make whatever you want, why would you ever need to sell anything? You just get them to make whatever you want/make more robots. You'd have you're very own slave economy, of what value are consumers to you?

BrandorKP posted:

If you can turn the activities of your job into a flow chart your job probably will be automated eventually.
They will never make a shitposting robot....NEVER.

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rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
It's worth noting that Marx's analysis relied on technology as labour enhancing rather than replacing, and it's the growing proportion of dead labour in the form of capital that leads to a decreasing rate of profit. It's a pretty good model, and the same one used by the likes of Smith and modern economists today, but there is no special reason machine can't essentially replace all labour, and conversely, there are some jobs that not everyone can do. So if anything the crisis comes sooner than that.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
Oddly enough, autonomous cars may actually assist transit, in the right situations. You robocar to the rail station, train into urban areas, the bus or robocar to work. You could maybe also do it with other options like biking or walking. If done properly, you could actually reduce congestion.

Something I'm really existing about though is the idea of variable bus routes. So suppose everyone had a smart phone, you enter where you are and need to go. That gets sent to a computer which them aggregates you requests with everyone else's, to generate a set of lines, created dynamically. The phone app then tells you which buses you get on and which transfers to make. Interesting, no? You could pull of the same thing with a taxi fleet, or a mix of taxis and buses, if you can get the whole thing automatic.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
Driverless forklifts are definitely going to kill jobs sooner than driverless trucks, because you have much finer control of the environment. A fully automated logistics train is kind scary, and is probably what Amazon is trying to aim for here. Kinda hoping though that other companies step up their game, because if that future is coming, it'll be bad if Amazon is the only player there.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
Well as mentioned, actual forklifts are a step up - the kiva robots need a dedicated space and a specially constructed environment to operate effectively (or at all), the idea behind a driverless forklift is that those requirements would be drastically reduced, meaning you can scale it way up. Like, here's the scenario: Minimal crew/fully automated ships, offloading cargo onto automated ports, storing products in automated warehouses, which are then distributed without drivers - that is a lot of jobs being threatened, and all the people being laid off won't necessarily be able to find new jobs.

rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy

Paul MaudDib posted:

Fundamentally the maxim that >= 1.0 jobs must necessarily be created for every job displaced is loving stupid. We've reached a level of society that would have been considered post-scarcity by someone just a century ago, and we use less and less manpower to do it. People need money to live, so we've created a massive service sector, but the day has finally arrived where that too can be automated. Even "complex" jobs like driving are starting to look pretty iffy.

The service sector is way up, the participation rate is way down, and yields are way up. The writing is absolutely on the wall.
Look at the US political system right now, look at the party with a clear hold on both Congress and the Senate (which it will probably keep till 2020, maybe 2024), and tell me how supportive they will be of a growing proportion of population that is unable to find employment. More people are going to fall through the cracks, and no one is willing to help them.

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rudatron
May 31, 2011

by Fluffdaddy
I hear you can solve overfitting by making your cost function more curvy-like, just like in real statistics.

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