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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:Joshua Landis' take on the Iran attack is that it was an own goal that took the focus off Gaza, sealed the breach between Biden and Bibi, and made Iran look weak. Interesting hearing him say that as he's usually highly critical of the U.S. and Israel. This is not a take I would expect. I'm not an academic but surely Iran would look weaker if they did nothing, letting Israel completely get away with assassinating their people? To my eyes they made a response that was carefully planned to minimize casualties and cost while still making their position known. Worrying about "sealing the breach" is laughable. There is no breach except the BS that Biden's PR throws out every now and then to try and placate the base. This makes no sense to me.
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Apr 17, 2024 14:26
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It's also pretty wild to paint it as taking the focus off Gaza. What focus? The stance on the israeli genocide in Gaza of the position of anyone in power in the west ranges from "nothing to see here" to "this rocks". What is the point in trying to paint it as "fitting in with the narrative" of the west vs the Arabs or whatever when that has always been "the narrative" happily both aped and reinforced by anyone who has any sort of pull. If our politicians were even capable of listening to any sort of counter-narrative that didn't paint their favorite apartheid ethnostate as a perfect liberal democratic paradise beset on all sides by slavering terrorists there wouldn't be an israel. Absolutely dogbrained analysis.
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Apr 17, 2024 15:12
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Iran succeeded in taking the focus off Gaza because their strikes was a big reason why Israel has had to delay their ground offensive against Rafah. So I guess Iran's strikes were success in that it postponed even greater slaughter of Palestinians. Good for Iran.
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Apr 17, 2024 17:34
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Fidelitious posted:carefully planned to minimize casualties E2M2 posted:And how was it bad for Iran? They showed they can hit Israel from their territory. They telegraphed the attack for weeks. And most of the drones were shot down by the Americans not the Iron Dome. These drones are cheap compared to the munitions required to shoot them down. Saw an estimate that it took a billion dollars to shoot down most of those drones and Iran still was able to hit the airbase. I sort of doubt that billion-dollar estimate too (like in terms of the munitions expended etc.). First of all, these weapons are meant to be used. You also said the U.S. did most of the work, but then again, how much did it cost Iran in relative terms to launch 100 MRBMs? Or a U.S. air-to-air missile fired from an F-15 costs several times more than a Shahed, but the size of the U.S. economy and the money spent on the military is at least an order of magnitude or two compared to Iran, so I don't know if the math works out. And, like, it's a living advertisement for American arms sales especially vis-a-vis the Arabs. This stuff seems like a rounding error. A single U.S. aircraft carrier costs (looks it up) $8 million dollars to run every single day. All of this is just incomparable to the costs of the U.S., for example, invading and occupying Iran. The occupation of Iraq cost $10 billion a month and that went on for years -- and that wasn't even the only war the U.S. was paying for at the time. BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 17:42
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Glah posted:Iran succeeded in taking the focus off Gaza because their strikes was a big reason why Israel has had to delay their ground offensive against Rafah. So I guess Iran's strikes were success in that it postponed even greater slaughter of Palestinians. Good for Iran. Were they really? I don't think Israel ever announced the date for us to say that it was delayed. I'm not sure how much Iran's strike (that Iran said was a one-off) influences Israel's decision making here compared to the fact that Israel's allies were not supportive of a ground offensive on Rafah even long before the strike and especially after the WKC incident when Israel was pressured to scale back its military presence within Gaza.
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Apr 17, 2024 17:48
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Paladinus posted:Were they really? I don't know, I'm just going by what the news are saying. For example https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/15/middleeast/israel-war-cabinet-iran-debate-intl/index.html. Could be BS of course, but if Iran striking military targets in Israel postponed the slaughter even a day, I'll consider it a good thing.
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Apr 17, 2024 17:53
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:"Minimize casualties" doesn't make any sense to me. If you fire 100 ballistic missiles at somebody, I'd think the intention would be to do some damage. It seems like Iran's capabilities would be more credible if they had achieved that. they were able to hit the airfield and at least dozens of missiles were able to defeat Israeli (and US, GB etc.) defenses. Seems like they made their point. I get that it's confusing since when Israel wants to make a point they level a city that has no air defenses or standing military at all. This obviously looks pretty different.
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Apr 17, 2024 17:56
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I think the strike was a win for both sides, in that each can claim the desired outcome was achieved. If/when Israel strikes Iran will ofc throw that out the window and worsen everything.quote:they were able to hit the airfield and at least dozens of missiles were able to defeat Israeli (and US, GB etc.) defenses. Seems like they made their point. Ive seen 9 total, all TBMs that got through. Is there evidence for dozens?
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Apr 17, 2024 17:58
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Glah posted:I don't know, I'm just going by what the news are saying. For example https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/15/middleeast/israel-war-cabinet-iran-debate-intl/index.html. Could be BS of course, but if Iran striking military targets in Israel postponed the slaughter even a day, I'll consider it a good thing. Ah, I wasn't aware they already had the date. Makes sense.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:02
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:"Minimize casualties" doesn't make any sense to me. If you fire 100 ballistic missiles at somebody, I'd think the intention would be to do some damage. It seems like Iran's capabilities would be more credible if they had achieved that. I thought at first they might have wanted to have their weapons shot down, but now I don't think that makes any sense -- why would anyone want their own weapons to be shot down like that? If none of them had been shot down, that would make Iran look much stronger. If you want an example of what can happen if your attack is too successful, look at Gaza.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:10
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The point of proportional response is to publicly punish, and privately deter a repetition of, an offence committed by one state upon another without the situation spiralling out of control. That Israel and the west get to say "nuh uh, didn't do anything" is part of the compromise Iran chose to make. It's a diplomatic face saving tool to allow a rational country an avenue to accept their chastisement privately without being forced into an escalation by public opinion. The point isn't how much or how little damage Iran did, it's that they still hit targets even after warning everyone it was coming, and Israel needing multiple other nations to defend it. Sadly Israel isn't a rational country so they will probably gently caress this up, and then Iran will probably decide to actually hurt them. And in return we'll hurt Iran because the rules based order isn't meant to benefit people like Iranians.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:11
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Dandywalken posted:I think the strike was a win for both sides, in that each can claim the desired outcome was achieved. If/when Israel strikes Iran will ofc throw that out the window and worsen everything. admittedly that was just from watching videos of the attack online. I don't think the numbers the US or Israel release are going to be anymore useful than that tbh.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:12
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so what happens with the states in between iran and israel when all these exploding things are going over their heads and israel's trying to stop them before they get to where they're going
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Apr 17, 2024 18:23
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:The point isn't how much or how little damage Iran did, it's that they still hit targets even after warning everyone it was coming, and Israel needing multiple other nations to defend it. This is the important part; Iran managed to hit their targets even though: - They warned the world a massive amount of time in advance - A joint force of Israel, US, UK, and France worked to intercept the missiles - Jordan made a surprise guest appearance on Israel's behalf - They didn't use any of their newer missiles We also know that Iran has significantly more missiles & drones than were used; if this attack was enough to overwhelm 4 nations' worth of air defense, then they absolutely have the means to level anything in Israel if they so pleased. The message is clear. It's a huge ego blow for Israel; not only were their vaunted Iron Domes & Arrow interceptors not enough to handle the volley, they can't attack back without eating a successful retaliation. Repercussions are supposed to be alien to Israel, We're talking about a state that installs malware on the terminals of nuclear power plants for funsies.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:30
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Neurolimal posted:It's a huge ego blow for Israel Israel doesnt seem to think it was lol The fact people cheerlead that this was a humiliating defeat/awesome display by both sides depending on who you ask is probably overall a good thing. Majorian posted:Well, they would say that, wouldn't they? It's not like any nation-state is going to be open about their missile defense system not keeping out all of the slow-moving missiles that they were previously warned about. TBM's arent slow moving by any metric. Those exoatmospheric intercepts werent against Shaeds. Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 18:40
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Dandywalken posted:Israel doesnt seem to think it was lol Well, they would say that, wouldn't they? It's not like any nation-state is going to be open about their missile defense system not keeping out all of the slow-moving missiles that they were previously warned about.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:42
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Dandywalken posted:Israel doesnt seem to think it was lol They're not going to publicly go "it was horrifying, Iran has defeated us!", but the fact that Israel, a nation known for its incredibly thin skin and immediate hostility in the face of challenge, blinked & is delaying their retaliation says plenty. We can compare their reaction to Iran's strike to instances where a tube rocket from Gaza landed on a hill; one of those merits an immediate scramble & the leveling of several houses less than 24 hours later. Because in one of the scenarios that can be done with impunity. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 18:44
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:Sadly Israel isn't a rational country so they will probably gently caress this up, and then Iran will probably decide to actually hurt them. Israel doesn’t do proportional response. They have always responded disproportionality. It’s a known long established thing that’s what they do. There are probably absolutely insane things being discussed on the Israeli side internally. If they don’t take it as “win”, they’ll do very very stupid things. Iran has clearly demonstrated they definitely really can hurt them. It’s an extremely dangerous situation.
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Apr 17, 2024 18:51
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I think the Iran attack has taken a lot of heat off Israel - the chorus of condemnation from the WCK killings has been replaced by solidarity from its allies. Israel is likely to start framing the Gaza campaign as part of its "shadow war" against Iran, with destroying Hamas being critical to its national security to avoid having a thorn in its side if Iran decides to launch a full attack. And given that Israel could decide to start a fullscale war with Iran at any times it may be that its allies would rather appease it by allowing it to continue into Rafah without the arms embargoes and other consequences that were previously being threatened. They have vowed to make a a response, but given the lack of damage caused by the attack it they choose to wait until after they've finished attacking Gaza and the US president has been replaced with someone who takes a harder line against Iran.
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Apr 17, 2024 19:12
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It's hard to see the attack as success without seeing the damage. Iran claims that they've completely destroyed the base they targeted, but Israel says that it was only slightly damaged and continues to operate. If what Iran says is true, it's definitely successful, sure, but only Israel would know that.
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Apr 17, 2024 19:23
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Neurolimal posted:This is the important part; Iran managed to hit their targets even though: Iran knows where the anti missile sites are at currently as well. Next attack will be more effective unless they move stuff around
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Apr 17, 2024 19:27
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Neurolimal posted:Repercussions are supposed to be alien to Israel, We're talking about a state that installs malware on the terminals of nuclear power plants for funsies. Source?
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Apr 17, 2024 19:54
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Rust Martialis posted:Source? They're referring to stuxnet
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Apr 17, 2024 20:01
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Stuxnet didn't affect nuclear power plants. So either they are referring to something else or didn't understand Stuxnet. Stuxnet targeted Siemens PLCs used in *enrichment*.
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Apr 17, 2024 20:17
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Rust Martialis posted:Stuxnet didn't affect nuclear power plants. So either they are referring to something else or didn't understand Stuxnet. Stuxnet targeted Siemens PLCs used in *enrichment*. Yeah I suspect they're conflating "nuclear facility" with "nuclear power plant". Neverthless the infection caused a serious accident with nuclear materials which isn't exactly reassuring.
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Apr 17, 2024 20:32
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99pct of germs posted:How many days will that US built pier last before Israel accidentally bombs it? You're all massively underestimating the strategic strength of that potential pier. There's a reason the World Kitchen kilings were such a dramatic moment, lots of politicians don't like what Israel is doing but are scared of the lobby, if they kill 'our boys' or destroy 'our infrastructure' that's a moral justification to finally make a stand. Be cynical about it taking too long, being a method for ethnic cleansing etc if you want but the pier would functionally be a US military/aid site. It would be a powerful geopolitical locum and it's extremely unlikely Israel would interfere with it.
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Apr 17, 2024 21:11
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Vitamin P posted:You're all massively underestimating the strategic strength of that potential pier. There's a reason the World Kitchen kilings were such a dramatic moment, lots of politicians don't like what Israel is doing but are scared of the lobby, if they kill 'our boys' or destroy 'our infrastructure' that's a moral justification to finally make a stand. They have bombed the Rafah crossing many times. They allowed the Kerem Shalom crossing to open and then a week later murdered the Palestinian head of aid distribution. The U.S. has emphasized there won't be American boots on the ground in Gaza. The aid workers who distribute this aid will be at risk of Israeli attack, or they might open fire at civilians at a distribution point, as Israel did in late February. I agree with you that Israel is unlikely to directly attack the pier, but I think there is a definite risk of them interfering with its operation by preventing aid distribution beyond the pier.
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Apr 17, 2024 22:12
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fool of sound posted:Yeah I suspect they're conflating "nuclear facility" with "nuclear power plant". Neverthless the infection caused a serious accident with nuclear materials which isn't exactly reassuring. Unless you know something about it I don't, Stuxnet caused mechanical breakdowns of the moving parts of uranium centrifuges to wear them out prematurely and stall the enrichment program. It wasn't something that was related to containment or even affected anything particularly "hot." Stuxnet had some big potential consequences in the cyberwarfare field, but from what I can tell it's less because it did anything particularly risky to to human life or health than because it was proof of concept for techniques that could. With a significantly different virus because Stuxnet was super targeted: that was the biggest clue it was developed by a well-funded state actor rather than some random hacker group.
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Apr 17, 2024 22:34
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PostNouveau posted:They have bombed the Rafah crossing many times. They allowed the Kerem Shalom crossing to open and then a week later murdered the Palestinian head of aid distribution. The U.S. has emphasized there won't be American boots on the ground in Gaza. The aid workers who distribute this aid will be at risk of Israeli attack, or they might open fire at civilians at a distribution point, as Israel did in late February. There won’t be military boots on the ground. There will almost certainly be military contractors that go ashore. I think the WCK killings were a clear they intend to gently caress with the aid distribution. If they gently caress with it once it’s installed (and I mean seriously gently caress with it to prevent food aid) then I think they intend to kill nearly everybody in Gaza, or atleast everybody male of military age (I already think that fwiw). There is a second major potential function for a pier like this and these types of army landing vessels, as an evacuation point. But that’s not possible unless they have a place to go and they don’t. I think there should be pressure about that starting now and I don’t see it any where, or even contemplated anywhere.
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Apr 17, 2024 23:10
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I guess since US diplomacy let a resolution pass last month that made Ben-Gvir sad, they are now working overtime to gently caress over palestinains in a more permanent manner. Which means leaning on voting countries to refuse granting Palestine nationhood. https://theintercept.com/2024/04/17/united-nations-biden-palestine-statehood/ quote:The diplomatic cables detail pressure being applied to members of the Security Council, including Malta, the rotating president of the council this month. Ecuador in particular is being asked to lobby Malta and other nations, including France, to oppose U.N. recognition. The State Department’s justification is that normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states is the fastest and most effective way to achieve an enduring and productive statehood.
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Apr 17, 2024 23:13
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https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1780683348211376278?t=Jh4THt-jnDuSURNo5Iy9FQquote:While clarifying that President Joe Biden has worked vigorously to support “Palestinian aspirations for statehood” within the context “of a comprehensive peace that would resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” a diplomatic cable dated April 12 details U.S. talking points against a U.N. vote for Palestinian statehood. The cable says that Security Council members must be persuaded to reject any proposal for Palestinian statehood — and thereby its recognition as a sovereign nation — before the council’s open debate on the Middle East, scheduled for April 18. The Biden admin totally absolutely wants Palestine to be a state but please don’t vote for it The actual cable: quote:“It remains the U.S. view that the most expeditious path toward a political horizon for the Palestinian people is in the context of a normalization agreement between Israel and its neighbors,” the cable reads. “We believe this approach can tangibly advance Palestinian goals in a meaningful and enduring way.” theCalamity fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Apr 18, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 23:35
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1780683348211376278?t=Jh4THt-jnDuSURNo5Iy9FQ Boy I can’t wait for April 18, when everything somehow magically changes.  (Please shut the gently caress up until April 18)
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Apr 18, 2024 02:30
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"Come on, Abbas, stop with this 'we want to be a real country' drama. If you do, you can meet our decrepit president that is happily funding the current genocide of your people! Maybe you'll even get ice cream during the photo op!" https://www.axios.com/2024/04/17/un-palestine-membership-biden quote:According to the officials, Abbas rejected the U.S. pressure and his aides told the Biden administration they are moving forward with the vote. It says quite a bit about how poo poo the offers are when even a corrupt empty suit like Abbas can't play along.
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Apr 18, 2024 03:32
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quote:The Biden administration made clear to the Palestinians that current U.S. law compels the administration to veto such a resolution or defund the UN, a U.S. official said. What law is referenced here?
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Apr 18, 2024 03:41
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Paladinus posted:What law is referenced here? Possibly this https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/2333 quote:(Sec. 410) Prohibits U.S. contributions to any affiliated organization of the United Nations or to the United Nations if they grant full membership as a state to a group that does not have internationally recognized attributes of statehood.
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Apr 18, 2024 03:58
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The US is really threatening to melt the modern global order to protect Bibi. Wild.
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Apr 18, 2024 04:37
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Yawgmoft posted:The US is really threatening to melt the modern global order to protect Bibi. Wild.
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Apr 18, 2024 04:48
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What would being in the UN actually get for Palestine?
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Apr 18, 2024 05:53
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Yawgmoft posted:The US is really threatening to melt the modern global order to protect Bibi. Wild. No, they're just going to veto the application. The law just spells out the consequences if they didn't veto it.
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Apr 18, 2024 06:00
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The US having a law on the books requiring them to veto Palestinian statehood or defund the UN for the past thirty years is definitely a twist I was not expecting, considering how long there's been talk about two state solutions.
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Apr 18, 2024 06:08
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