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good to see this thread hasn't changed a bit. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 15, 2024 20:30
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Pretending international law isn't just a post-hoc justification for those who have the military power to get their way is a fine way to carry on an internet debate, but it's by no means a reflection of reality.
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Apr 15, 2024 21:33
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pesty13480 posted:There are plenty of reasons why attacking a consulate is a great idea, if you're cynical enough. This is a really good post. Iran has lowkey played a blinder by communicating the attack in advance to the US/Saudis and making clear it was a one-off though. Hope that one Bedouin kid injured in the attack recovers fully but Iran getting to say "we struck back" and Israel not getting to say "we're the victims" is a good outcome. Only thing I'd disagree with is the prominence of Netenyahu. A lot of discourse about Israeli governance, even from Normally Good Lad Bernie, is centred on Netanyahu specifically and that's a really dangerous angle to take. The Israeli populace are broadly in favour of the ethnic cleansing, if Netenyahu and his administration were replaced tomorrow it would likely be something even worse taking their place. There's a danger we're making Netanyahu into Batman at the end of Dark Knight; he can be the bad guy that did what needed to be done, no matter what heinous poo poo Israel does all the crimes fall on him with the implication that him leaving office is 'turning a new page'.
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Apr 15, 2024 22:00
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apatheticman posted:Pretending international law isn't just a post-hoc justification for those who have the military power to get their way is a fine way to carry on an internet debate, but it's by no means a reflection of reality. What is the alternative?
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Apr 15, 2024 22:10
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rkd_ posted:What is the alternative? Realizing we're just doing imperialism with more steps?
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Apr 15, 2024 22:13
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apatheticman posted:Realizing we're just doing imperialism with more steps? Of course, and I agree that calling out the hypocrisy is good, but making GBS threads on the system itself like there is a viable alternative is also by no means a reflection of reality, and, to be honest, pretty tiring. Also, are any officials actually calling to use international law to justify actions against Iran for their counter-attack?
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Apr 15, 2024 22:28
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apatheticman posted:Realizing we're just doing imperialism with more steps? That's not an alternative that's just a leftist bromide. What are the implications of realizing this? What would the world do with this information if it were up to you? rkd_ posted:Of course, and I agree that calling out the hypocrisy is good, but making GBS threads on the system itself like there is a viable alternative is also by no means a reflection of reality, and, to be honest, pretty tiring. The G7 is looking to sanction Iran but this seems to be through agreement rather than formal international law. Russia would likely veto any UNSC resolutions and there probably aren't the votes for an UNGA resolution. I also don't think the US cares enough to raise it to either body.
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Apr 15, 2024 22:32
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Rules based order is useful because it codifies the privileges of the powerful, and also the privileges of the oppressed. This lets everyone relax and enjoy what they can get. If a participant thinks it deserves more than the current order allows, it can use violence to change the order. This is risky for the usurper and costly for everyone involved. Once a new power balance is adequately demonstrated, exhausted combatants will gladly accept a new, equally unequal order. People respect laws not because they are fair but because the gap between what they want and what they have is not big enough to justify the risk and effort of fighting for more. In civil society, participants are physically closer and more accountable to each other, and incentivized to behave "fairly". You don't harm your neighbor because they can tangibly retaliate. You promote peaceful norms hoping to also enjoy peace. You limit your potential gains and enjoy what you have, and are glad for it, because you can sleep soundly. In geopolitics, there is enough distance and separation between participants, and between those who set policy and those who suffer the consequences of policy, that they behave more Machiavellian. It is the same reason why you might give a local beggar some money, but wouldn't consider to give that money to a much more disadvantaged person halfway around the world. The alternative to rules based order is violence. Preen Dog fucked around with this message at 22:44 on Apr 15, 2024 |
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Apr 15, 2024 22:39
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Kagrenak posted:That's not an alternative that's just a leftist bromide. What are the implications of realizing this? What would the world do with this information if it were up to you? Avoiding the "but the rules say" circular arguments that tend to clog up these discussions.
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Apr 15, 2024 22:40
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apatheticman posted:Pretending international law isn't just a post-hoc justification for those who have the military power to get their way is a fine way to carry on an internet debate, but it's by no means a reflection of reality. apatheticman posted:Realizing we're just doing imperialism with more steps? apatheticman posted:Avoiding the "but the rules say" circular arguments that tend to clog up these discussions.
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Apr 15, 2024 22:51
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I find this line of argumentation completely baffling, and you should develop it by clearly explaining what your conclusion is and how you arrived at it. Like if it weren't for your post history I would actually assume this is a pro-Israel argument, as much of the case against their campaign (paritcularly recently in this thread) is based around them breaching international laws such as IHL (eg attacking hospitals), the genocide convention or generally held norms around not attacking embassies, and with no other context to go on this appears to be a rebuttal to that (a sortof "might makes right, Israel should be able to do whatever it wants since no-one can stop it" angle). Maybe you think that those international laws are good in principle but that in practice they are selectively enforced in a way that is harmful? You've essentially done the work for me; if Israel can blatantly violate the common agreements that international law is supposed to uphold with little to no repercussions from the power brokers that are supposed to uphold these rules, then their discussion and enforcement are essentially moot.
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Apr 15, 2024 22:56
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Preen Dog posted:The alternative to rules based order is violence. I have some bad news for you regarding the rules based order
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Apr 15, 2024 23:14
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rkd_ posted:What is the alternative? Historical materialist, game theory, or geographical based frameworks all provide a better explanation of the behavior of nation states but those frameworks do not paint a picture of the world that legitimates most states, generally. Irony Be My Shield posted:I find this line of argumentation completely baffling, and you should develop it by clearly explaining what your conclusion is and how you arrived at it. Like if it weren't for your post history I would actually assume this is a pro-Israel argument, as much of the case against their campaign (paritcularly recently in this thread) is based around them breaching international laws such as IHL (eg attacking hospitals), the genocide convention or generally held norms around not attacking embassies, and with no other context to go on this appears to be a rebuttal to that (a sortof "might makes right, Israel should be able to do whatever it wants since no-one can stop it" angle). Maybe you think that those international laws are good in principle but that in practice they are selectively enforced in a way that is harmful? You’re misrepresenting him by conflating description with endorsement Preen Dog posted:. The rules based order exists to legitimate violence when it advantages capital. Butter Activities fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Apr 15, 2024 |
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Apr 15, 2024 23:16
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apatheticman posted:You've essentially done the work for me; if Israel can blatantly violate the common agreements that international law is supposed to uphold with little to no repercussions from the power brokers that are supposed to uphold these rules, then their discussion and enforcement are essentially moot. I think an issue here is that discussions of war crimes are frequently used as a demonstration that Israel's actions are wrong in an ethical or moral sense, and "they are flagrantly violating international laws" is a common argument for Israel's actions being immoral. It is very difficult to discuss acts of war in terms of morality, so the laws of war sometimes serve as a substitute. Following the law is obviously not the same as morality, but I think the resistance to just saying that the laws are moot comes up not because people think the laws are likely to be enforced, but because the laws are frequently used as the grounds to point out how unethical Israel's actions are. To put it another way, materialist/power-based/Marxist frameworks may provide a useful explanation of Israel's actions, but I think many are less invested in that, than they are in discussing the immorality of their actions specifically.
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Apr 16, 2024 03:46
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Believing in the rules-based international order because the alternative is might makes right is kinda like believing in Santa Claus because the alternative is better presents going to the kids with richer parents.
VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 03:50
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While Russias invasion of Ukraine, post-Yugoslavian war crimes, the Holocaust, and Rwanda were all treated “correctly” as aberrations of the rules based international order (or precursors/justification for it) the same rules based international order metabolized and legitimated the Indonesian state genocides, bengal famine, Pol Pot (while he was fighting Vietnam at least), NATO intervention of Lybia, genocide in Yemen and Palestine, and the US invasions of Iraq, Panama, and Vietnam, and especially in the case of Iraq provided “legal” cover for a naked war of aggression. Not to mention the shock therapy plus intelligence/paramilitary meddling the west has done with complete impunity since the fall of the USSR in countless places like Haiti, Congo, and El Salvador. So for me, and probably the majority of people on earth, the idea of the “rules based order” as it actually exists being some sort of inherent or assumed good is absurd.
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Apr 16, 2024 04:07
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AvesPKS posted:So when I see signs that say "Speed Limit Enforced by Airplane," an airplane isn't actually going to write me a ticket? In the future, speed limits will be enforced by loitering munitions and we can cut out the middlemen.
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Apr 16, 2024 04:44
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KillHour posted:In the future, speed limits will be enforced by loitering munitions and we can cut out the middlemen. The police drone ai zooms in and its facial recognition system connects you to your ID. Your phone patterns and social network are similar to people who have been terminated for speeding in the past. It tracks you to your home and waits until your family is likely to be in bed. It locks on. It's not dystopian sci-fi, it's how Israel is targeting Palestinians.
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Apr 16, 2024 04:53
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Szarrukin posted:good to see this thread hasn't changed a bit. good starter post for page 666 of an israel/palestine conflict thread, truly one of the most cursed harmonic convergences in existence
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Apr 16, 2024 05:55
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The embassy conversation is weird to watch for me because it seems intuitively obvious that it's simultaneously true that under certain conditions an embassy building is totally legitimate to strike (ie. If you are conducting military activity out of it), but also if you are conducting military strikes directly against another country then you have accepted that you are in a shooting war with them.
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Apr 16, 2024 06:03
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https://twitter.com/abierkhatib/status/1780059230965207402 Mehdi Hasan talking about how the media has dehumanized Palestinians and bias towards Israel when it comes to certain terms and descriptions.
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Apr 16, 2024 06:04
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theCalamity posted:https://twitter.com/abierkhatib/status/1780059230965207402 This also dovetails nicely with the leaked NYT memo: https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1779940477120172068 - Do not use the word 'Palestine' outside of historic context - Avoid using the word 'Occupied Territories' - Do not refer to areas where displaced Palestinians are taking refuge in as 'Refugee Camps' - Avoid using 'Slaughter', 'Massacre', or 'Carnage' when reporting on Palestinian deaths - Do not refer to Hamas soldiers as 'fighters', instead use terms like 'Terrorists', 'Attackers', 'Assailants', or 'Gunmen' - Do not use the term 'Genocide' outside of the context of legal parameters. Avoid using quotations that say 'Genocide' - Provide "proper context" or press the interviewee to provide specifics when they use the term 'Ethnic Cleansing' This is coming from the paper of record, which also allows internal dissent. You can imagine guidelines are worse at tighter-run, less prestigious papers. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 06:32
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Israel will sink the ship the IRGC comandeered as their revenge, then be confused when its owners arent appreciative.
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Apr 16, 2024 12:59
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How many days will that US built pier last before Israel accidentally bombs it?
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Apr 16, 2024 13:57
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99pct of germs posted:How many days will that US built pier last before Israel accidentally bombs it? That assumes the pier is ever built, instead of being a naked ploy by Biden to appear to be doing something that'll be forgotten about one way or the other come November.
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Apr 16, 2024 14:11
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99pct of germs posted:How many days will that US built pier last before Israel accidentally bombs it? Did you know that Israel will control security for the land side of the pier, thus giving them the ability to block it whenever they want?
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Apr 16, 2024 15:07
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Piell posted:Did you know that Israel will control security for the land side of the pier, thus giving them the ability to block it whenever they want? "Security conditions around the pier and ongoing militarydeployment in the area has forced us to suspend operations of the pier. Indefinitely." Of course, as others have said, there's 90% odds that there will be no pier, and it was only ever a fake talking point to create positive buzz for a news cycle. Not unlike how every SOTU address has a "Oh btw we're going back to space big time, Mars here we come! Or, um, cancer! Yeah, we're finally curing it, watch this space!" tidbit.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:35
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Even if there's a pier, it's likely to mostly be used for "voluntary" relocations of gazans to the sinai. Also even if it was used for aid, even if Israel didn't bomb it or block it, they'd bomb the aid trucks that pick up from it at some point before they get to people that need it, as is their way. Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 15:38
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Nail Rat posted:Even if there's a pier, it's likely to mostly be used for "voluntary" relocations of gazans to the sinai. Why wouldn't Israel be doing this already through other means if it was the plan? I don't mean to suggest that they wouldn't forcibly relocate people because clearly they're willing to do worse than that, just they don't need a roll on roll off pier to do so. Anyway I'm sure Bar Ran Dun will come in soon to give us an update on the location of the JLOTS/pier ship. But as far as I remember, one of those ships passed Malta a little while ago so unless they're running a weird long con about it, it seems like something will get put down. Whether the Israeli army blocks everything remains to be seen but I know where id put my bets.
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Apr 16, 2024 15:53
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IAmThatIs posted:That assumes the pier is ever built, instead of being a naked ploy by Biden to appear to be doing something that'll be forgotten about one way or the other come November. Generally they don’t make little army boats cross an ocean for a ”ploy”. James Loux stopped in Crete about 10:00 local time. They haven’t stopped since departing so this is likely fuel and provisions. 
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Apr 16, 2024 16:16
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Piell posted:Did you know that Israel will control security for the land side of the pier, thus giving them the ability to block it whenever they want? I did not, what a farce.
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Apr 16, 2024 16:39
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Nail Rat posted:Even if there's a pier, it's likely to mostly be used for "voluntary" relocations of gazans to the sinai. Piell posted:Did you know that Israel will control security for the land side of the pier, thus giving them the ability to block it whenever they want?
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Apr 16, 2024 16:50
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They'll have to shut it down due to security risks, the risk being impending Khamas attacks against the IOF troops guarding the pier. Then it'll accidentally get blown up by a stray missile.
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Apr 16, 2024 17:04
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Generally they don’t make little army boats cross an ocean for a ”ploy”. army boats cross the ocean all the time for pure political theater thats a lot of the reason you build little army boats
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Apr 16, 2024 17:43
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punishedkissinger posted:army boats cross the ocean all the time for pure political theater thats a lot of the reason you build little army boats Power projection is much more the navy’s job. They send the Navy for that. Vessel in question:   This vessel is really only for the thing they are asserting they’re going to use it for. Edit: it’s built like an empty bath tub with a ramp on each end. Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Apr 16, 2024 |
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Apr 16, 2024 19:29
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Lopez is north of Tunisia Bobo is back to blount island  Looks like they went out and then turned around.
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Apr 16, 2024 19:52
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Joshua Landis' take on the Iran attack is that it was an own goal that took the focus off Gaza, sealed the breach between Biden and Bibi, and made Iran look weak. Interesting hearing him say that as he's usually highly critical of the U.S. and Israel. One thing I was wondering about is how many ballistic missiles they actually fired, how many of them were duds, and what percentage were those of the total number of missiles Iran has with the range to reach Israel. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QLK2TNyNhc
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Apr 17, 2024 04:52
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Any supposed rift between Bibi and Biden is pure PR to make liberals feel better about supporting a guy helping to facilitate a genocide. And how was it bad for Iran? They showed they can hit Israel from their territory. They telegraphed the attack for weeks. And most of the drones were shot down by the Americans not the Iron Dome. These drones are cheap compared to the munitions required to shoot them down. Saw an estimate that it took a billion dollars to shoot down most of those drones and Iran still was able to hit the airbase.
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Apr 17, 2024 05:40
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I think it’s a risk/reward thing. It’s definitely taken the focus off Gaza, but the main thing bringing that into focus was the WCK murders, which I hate to say it but might have fallen off the news anyway. I’m not sure if what eventually broke the camels back there was the number of IRGC members that have been killed plus the consulate, the consulate alone, or general timing and being seen as a pushover while the slayings of muslims in Gaza were going on. I think the consulate attack was intentionally provocative by Israel and that kind of intent makes it much worse and necessitates a response. Irans big gamble is that they have actually deterred Israel. And that has to do with not only the strike itself but how everyone else reacts. I don’t think Americas tepid reply about defending but not attacking is going to be much of a deterrent. I think also that this might be Russia’s big chance to back up an ally and play the role of a serious statesman and superpower, so they might throw their chips on the table. Oh also I agree that the rift between Biden and bibi is made up. At the very least, the worst it will ever be is a “hmmm okay” instead of a “yes!” and the Israelis know it. That’s why the whole we won’t help you fight Iran thing isn’t effective. This situation is in many ways a failure of American diplomacy. not a value-add fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Apr 17, 2024 |
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Apr 17, 2024 10:24
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The last big official thing USAID posted about the Gaza crisis was in March.  Wait no, they also have two other things more recent, they were just filed funny. Statement on the murder of the world kitchen workers that, well, it's pretty annoyed for USG, I guess From Friday: unnamed usaid guy killed in Jaffa under unstated circumstances. Looks like on Saturday they gave the name but no further details: https://x.com/usembassyjlm/status/1779185367511359844 Oh huh, looks like he was the guy shot by the off duty Israeli officer. https://www.timesofisrael.com/arab-jaffa-resident-shot-dead-by-off-duty-cop-after-apparent-traffic-dispute/amp/ Afaict the footage in the article is from after the shooting when he's being detained by on-duty cops. Doesn't seem to have anything directly to do with organized Israeli action or the guy being a usaid worker, it's a cop being a cop to a regular person / an Israeli cop being an Israeli cop to an Arab regular person.
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Apr 17, 2024 14:19
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