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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Main Paineframe posted:

There was never any real chance of Hamas getting concessions from Israel. When the other side has Gaza under a total blockade and can bomb critical infrastructure at will, a protracted all-out shooting war is suicide not just for Hamas but for the entire population of Gaza. While the international media was focusing on the bombing of media offices and apartment buildings, Israeli airstrikes have also been blowing up clinics, hospitals, sewage plants, and desalination systems.

Continuing the conflict would have caused a serious crisis among Gaza's already-overburdened healthcare system and basic infrastructure. Compared to that, dragging on a strike among low-paid laborers a few more days is small potatoes.

In any case, like Israel, Hamas has already gotten what they actually expected to get from this exchange: shoring up their domestic political cred.

While Hamas was decrying Israel's attack on the Al-Aqsa protesters, Palestinian collaborationists spent their time calling for calm and asking the protesters to go home. When Hamas was launching rockets and enduring Israeli airstrikes, the most Mahmoud Abbas did about Israeli attacks was call up Joe Biden and ask him to please politely have Israel stop. As a result, Hamas comes out looking strong compared to Fatah, which has been very much drifting in the winds of public opinion in this whole thing. After a while, Fatah sensed where the winds were blowing and ramped up the anti-Israel rhetoric and endorsed the general strike, but they're clearly being forced to follow Hamas' lead by public opinion...and all their condemnations ring pretty hollow when the PA security forces are still actively cooperating with Israel to help them find and arrest Hamas members. With Palestinian elections canceled again and Mahmoud Abbas being in his 80s, Hamas benefits a lot from acting as a strong advocate for Palestinian rights. Even if their actual accomplishments are nil, just showing their willingness to clash with Israel should help their position a lot in overall Palestinian politics.

This has also been a big blow to Ra'am, the Islamist party that broke away from the opposition to try to cozy up to Netanyahu and play kingmaker. While protesters are everywhere and inter-ethnic street attacks are ramping up even within Israel, Mansour Abbas is spouting both-sides platitudes about how everyone needs to stop the violence and work to better Arab-Jewish relations. Unsurprisingly, his already-small party seems to he splintering under the strain of trying to accept that.

Thanks for the write up, this is the sort of political incentive detail that provides more clarity to the situation.

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Nebalebadingdong posted:

progressive zionists, no longer able to reconcile the increasingly obvious incompatibility between the two ideologies, are now advocating openly for Cowardice



https://forward.com/opinion/469886/what-can-we-do-to-help-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict-stay-out-of-it/

There's a link to the actual opinion piece you've actively made it hard for people to read.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Nebalebadingdong posted:

that was on purpose because you shouldn't read articles from the forward dot com

It's pretty simple and not a new rule, don't poo poo up threads with content- and context-free ragebait.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

punishedkissinger posted:

that article was colonizer apologia so this is a pretty ironic post

Then there's no benefit in posting a clipped image of it rather than linking it so people can actually discuss its abhorrent content. Again, this isn't a new rule.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
This action from October appears to be the basis for the claim.

https://www.npr.org/2021/10/23/1048690050/israel-palestinian-human-right-groups

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Do we have any good sources on domestic Israeli reporting on how blame is being distributed from the event? How are the different parties responding? The central element with the most "work in the joints" for some time now has been the Israeli domestic political balance.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Raskolnikov2089 posted:

So as an outside observer, I'm curious, does this basically gift wrap Netanyahu's controversial judicial reforms for him?

At least in the US this would be the end of dissent. Everyone would rally around the flag.

I believe Netanyahu has already gotten at least some of the reforms before this event, but if anything it's harmful to his political machine. The failure to anticipate or halt this attack wrecks the strongman protector rhetoric that has been at the core of his political identity. It won't necessarily end his career, but it's unlikely to strengthen him.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
I believe someone had said a couple pages back that Israel had already ended running water in Gaza some time ago, and that Israel wasn't the sole or primary energy source either.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

studio mujahideen posted:

None of this matches up with what I've seen or read, so it would be helpful if you sourced claims like this.

Entirely fair, I was remembering this:

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Those are the confirmed death figures as of today. It's also not 0 water and electricity. It's none from Israel (which is about 45% of the electricity in Gaza) and sadly there has been a lack of access to running water in Gaza for a long time. So it seems very unlikely that thousands of people have died from the electricity and water situation in the last 24 hours. Not for lack of trying, though. The airstrikes are most definitely going to be the thing that raises the casualties in Gaza quickly.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Why should we be focusing on a facebook post by the VP of an IP nonprofit?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Jaxyon posted:

Probably stupid conspiratorial thinking, but given how unprepared Israel was, and with multiple parties, saying they told him, this might actually be a case where the bad fascist man did let a terrorism happen. It's certainly good for Bibi's power, which is all he cares about.

This keeps coming up, and it's not clear that it's true. Netanyahu appears poised to take the blame for failing to respond to the attack. It is a vanishingly unlikely conspiracy theory that he, and his security apparatus, deliberately "let a terrorism happen".

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Predictably, the US and Qatar are now halting the process of opening the $6 billion in funds from the earlier deal with Iran. I'm not actually certain of the legalities here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/12/world/middleeast/us-qatar-iran-prisoner-deal.html

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

The gently caress is this twitter account?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

frytechnician posted:

That clip is years old.

2004, it looks like. DelilahFlowers, you should look into how it was you came across that tweet.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
It might be productive to spend more time looking at the support structure and historical operations of the more absolutist groups on each side of the conflict- who funds them, how they retain support within their broader polity, etc.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize to everyone if this is a really ignorant comment, but how many groups on either the Israeli or Palestinian side are not absolutist at this point?

It sounds like everyone Likud and rightward (which seems to be the Israeli political mainstream whether we like it or not) abandoned the two state approach a long time ago. How much does the Israeli "left" really feel passionate about a two state arrangement? It seems geographically and logistically impossible, but at the same time the only way forward that isn't solved by a horrible displacement or murder of an entire people.

I know even less of the various political factions within the West Bank and Gaza. It sounds like the Palestinian Authority views the 2 state solution as the only viable way forward, but not many others do.

Sorry if I'm not helping anyone by venting my despair.

This is largely why I believe this shift would be a more productive line of discussion, as opposed to "venting despair".

As a subforum that is supposedly moderated for the purpose of education, I think this is a subject where there is more knowledge that we can share with each other, rather than despair-inducing tweets, attacks and information of dubious quality. I don't think Likud or the right wing represent the Israeli mainstream any more than Hamas represents Palestine- and it would be helpful to understand the specifics of sub-entities in their political constituency, such as the settler movement groups or the fundamentalist religious sects that drive the political ratcheting effect at play on both sides. At a minimum, understanding the internal political dynamics of Israel and Palestine would be a way to understand the how, the causality, of the current situation.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Oct 13, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Testekill posted:

Fits in with the IDF history of going "it wasn't us" whenever a journalist happens to get killed by a bullet fired from the direction of IDF troops. Happening to just accidentally kill journalists is a happy accident for them, especially when some of the wounded happen to be from Al Jazeera.

https://twitter.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1712859786700800142

And here's some context for the outlet Rania Khalek works for.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/neville-singham-funded-breakthrough-news-is-pushing-moscow-beijing-propaganda

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

i say swears online posted:

what's your point, that the murdered journalist was a russian plant?

It's context for the mediator you're choosing to use. I think "this heinous crime was fully backed by Joe Biden" is probably a factually inaccurate piece of framing editorializing from someone who appears to serve as a proxy for the Chinese US-facing propaganda apparatus. This series of events is bringing basically every state and nonstate propaganda entity into play with every tool available, it's part of why it's so hard to get accurate information.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Oct 14, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
In the New Yorker, What was Hamas thinking?

They got on the phone with a Hamas political leader in Qatar, and do a good job of critically responding to his statements, but don't get any real answers...in part because it appears significant parts of the Hamas political leadership wasn't aware of much about when or how the attack was going to happen, or anything about what it would entail. The leader in question, Abu Marzouk, seems to be mostly engaged in a flak capacity.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
It may be productive to compare the docs from the NBC report against the map we get a screenshot of from the headcam vid posted in the NYT article earlier.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
As with many other contexts, irrational (or seemingly irrational) actions on the international stage may be responsive to domestic political or cultural concerns. Israeli political leaders are ultimately less beholden to the US than their own constituents.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

BadOptics posted:

Wow, $368 million almost a decade ago (I imagine that number is lower now post-Trump and the current Biden administration) while we're gearing up to send $10 billion in military aid to Israel. How magnanimous of the US.

$343 million in 2022, 50% higher than Germany in second place with $202.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Triskelli posted:

NBC Nightly News reported that Hamas was willing to release foreign captives without demands, “if conditions allowed”. Is there any idea what those conditions might be beyond “stop dropping bombs”?

Here's the coverage.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna120545

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Best Friends posted:

The carriers are there, by centcom’s own statements, to deter anyone from attacking Israel while Israel conducts its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

I can't find these statements, can you link them?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

TGLT posted:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...ent-of-uss-eis/

"The increases to US force Posture signal the United States' ironclade commitment to Israel's security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war."

That's not the same claim as "to deter anyone from attacking Israel while Israel conducts its attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria."

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

mannerup posted:

posting this to show real time changes in reporting for headlines and the lede, the initial report pushed out by the Associate Press for this incident was

where it has now changed to

That's pretty appropriate, the problem is that the first version didn't go out with that context on source and verification.

Best Friends posted:

Reposting from earlier in the thread-

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...iterranean-sea/

That seems pretty clear to me, especially that last paragraph when presented in the context of Israel’s attacks on their neighbors and Gaza. But perhaps there is a media literate way to identify that up is actually down.

The context is something you've added and is not "by centcom’s own statements" as you claimed.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Best Friends posted:

My view is that statements exist and are decipherable within and because of the context in which they are made.

Is it your view that centcom just happened to move those carriers and then make statements about how those carriers are there to deter any attacks on Israel? Because even in that interpretation, they are saying they are there to deter attacks on Israel, while israel is attacking its neighbors. Attacks have expanded, and the carriers have not moved.

My interpretation is the plain, intended, and obvious reading. The officer quoted in it would be bewildered by your not reading it that way.

They are not saying that they are there to deter attacks on Israel while Israel is attacking its neighbors. The statement is not the same as the context, and you are adding that context and attributing it to the statement in the initial post. This could be solved by, when you first cite to a source, actually providing or quoting the source rather than "interpreting" it without providing it.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Some of y'all are likely already aware but this "reusing old attack footage" poo poo is practically ubiquitous low-level disinformation and something to be constantly on the lookout for.

Zulily Zoetrope posted:

They're not saying "the carrier group is there to deter attacks on Israel, while permitting Israel to attack its neighbors," that's correct, they're merely saying "the carrier group is there to deter attacks on Israel," while permitting Israel to attack its neighbors. Is that a meaningful distinction?

Yes, very much so, when it's attributed to their statement.

theCalamity posted:

The problem is that the second one is implying that the event is inherently misleading because the Ministry of Health is ran by Hamas. Reuters’ headline is better: “At least 300 dead in Gaza hospital bombing, local authorities say”

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/

The implications aren’t as damning as AP’s.

I'm not sure the purpose of the attribution is to imply that the event is inherently misleading because the Ministry of Health is run by Hamas; it is however a significant limitation of the claim when it's not separately verified. Either the Reuters or the revised AP writeup is better than the original AP writeup.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

I'm not sure why there is even a pretence of a debate about who did when quite apart from everything else, the social media advisor to Netanyahu admitted it was them and that it was deliberate.

https://twitter.com/lowkey0nline/status/1714380404210246079?s=46&t=ARI_L-v32Oind1-d9B3a3Q

Do you have a mediating source for this other than someone working for mint press?

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Groovelord Neato posted:

Gotta stop posting like this man it sucks incredible amounts of rear end. A bunch of people screenshotted it before he deleted.

Great, then we don't need to use mint press as a mediator. This is a setting where every single propaganda entity on the planet is getting their licks in; we should at least attempt to exercise some critical thought about what enters our feeds, and identify and characterize their motivations. In this moment, from these outlets, we are the target for misinformation, and we can also serve as its channel. We should conduct ourselves accordingly.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Oct 18, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Terebus posted:

https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/1714968013068230783

Le Point, a french reporting agency is saying between 10 and 50 people were killed by the blast in the al-Ahli hospital. I'm not srue how credible they are, but this is the first reporting agency not citing numbers originating from Hamas affiliated orgs as far as I'm aware.

In a translated quote it cites an anonymous French intelligence source that spoke to the AFP.

Let Point is an actual media outlet not owned by any governments; their reporting on the conflict, at a glance, does appear slanted in Israel's favor.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
The "mutiny" is greatly overstated; there's a formal process for making a statement of disagreement with policy, which is significant but far from earth-shattering.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Clipperton posted:

Has the dissent channel ever been used for Israel/Palestine stuff before?

My understanding is a lot of it is classified, but given that it's used very frequently I'd be shocked if it weren't. What's unusual in this case is that someone's using the press to run a PR campaign with it- that's less common.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

BUUNNI posted:

We know that several nations and organizations have sent aid to Palestine, but why do you think that Israel or the US would ever allow that aid to be delivered?

More broadly, can you think of any reasons why Middle Eastern Muslim nations would have qualms about providing aid to a people who are viewed by most developed nations as being uninteresting at best and terrorists at worst?

Again, the US is the largest contributor of aid to Palestinians through UNRWA, and those other nations are, in fact, also providing aid.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Something about the color layering in that inset photo made me first believe this was a sandwich ad.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
What the War Means for Palestinians Inside Israel

Chotiner article in the New Yorker interviewing Amjad Iraqi of Al-Shabaka on the experience of Israeli Palestinians, both historically and in response to current events. I'd welcome evaluation of Al-Shabaka, as I am not familiar with the org and its ideological position.

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It's sortof bizarre how the one incident where the fault is debatable is drowning out all the discussion of all the other atrocities where fault is known.

Not particularly; beyond the fact that it's big, dramatic, it has a fairly directly attributable deathcount, the debate itself is a driver. Propaganda outlets on all sides of the conflict feel both an incentive and an obligation to address it.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 02:38 on Oct 22, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Al Mayadeen's funding is deliberately and famously obscured. It's based in Lebanon and has historically served as a disinformation proxy.

A quick glance at their english language site shows two tracks: mediating RT material and associated proxy material, and a white line of content paraphrased and copied from other press sources, commonly on how America is in decline (sometimes without attribution as "source: News Websites"). This overarching narrative approach is illustrated by the lineup of their "in five" videos is representative. Some review of their media material designed for youtube, telegram and tiktok suggests they're receiving a lot of it from other propaganda platforms or there's a degree of direct coordination there, there's just a ton of cross-pollination with columnists from china daily, CGTN...wow, Bouthaina Shaaban. Channel identification material suggests the english version is targeting our demographic.

It's also educational in another respect: I've learned that redstream is the russia-operated left-targeting propaganda successor to redfish; it looks like it's being run through a Turkish media firm now to provide greater deniability, but it's still churning Russian propaganda.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Oct 22, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
A general problem of discussion of I/P is that there information environment is thoroughly contaminated; while all sources of information are imperfect, here virtually everything is legitimately suspect. The setting is an absolute playground for every kind of mis- and disinformation, from just about every actor, made all the worse by the heightened emotions of the subject. In this environment, there are many, many, many circumstances and situations where you just do not have good information- and a strong pressure to fill that gap with an assumption grounded in your prior beliefs. These gap-filling practices in turn become unexamined premises and points of severe conflict.

Discussion would probably be more productive if it were grounded in what we do know rather than trying to compare the moral weight of different prior assumptions about things we don't know.

wins32767 posted:

D&D premise is inherently liberal, it's that rational discussion can change minds. The authoritarian impulse to silence someone you disagree with isn't how functioning liberalism works.

I don't understand the connection you are drawing between D&D's "premise" and liberalism.

pro starcraft loser posted:

Was there confirmation that Israel didn't want to accept these two hostages at first? That really baffled me.

I do not believe there was.

Darth Walrus posted:

This site has always had a principle of probing/banning reality-detached psychoposting in order to facilitate saner, more functional conversations. What on Earth are you on about here?

Koos has an inconsistently applied practice of explicitly not punishing viewpoints; coupled with an extreme hesitancy to punish bad faith and a general lack of consistent moderation, it's basically an invitation to trolls. The thread has actually been much cleaner than one would expect under the circumstances.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Israel/Palestine 2023: Strip of Theseus

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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

Google Jeb Bush posted:

al mayadeen is not necessarily a reliable source for details, as one can perhaps expect from the martyrdom language

as usual, i'm not really equipped to evaluate their alleged primary sources or their translated takes; qadura fares does seem to unofficially involved with Fatah's treaty-mandated prison oversight but his position also rapidly gets weird and confusing

i think i saw someone digging into al mayadeen a bit earlier but I don't have it to hand

I did; they’re a disinformation mediator with deliberately opaque funding. We’re generally the target demo for their English language material.

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