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punishedkissinger posted:really disappointed to find out David Simon is a hardcore zionist/war crimes apologist. there is no such thing as a left wing Zionist huh Being left wing is not a vaccine against prejudice and biases, and I don't think employing 'no true Scotsman' is a good idea. He simply has at least one truly terrible personal stance, just like many other people of all political stripes.
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Oct 30, 2023 23:19
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Discendo Vox posted:In the New Yorker, The Hamas Propaganda War. The New Yorker has so far been pretty good at finding angles others aren't covering, and this is a strong example. I wonder if Hamas really went all in on that idea of inspiring a massive uprising, attracting volunteers from other countries to join the fight, and achieving a military victory. To me, from watching snippets of interviews with various Hamas politicians, it looks like there is no agreement on whether the attack was supposed to be (or be presented as) just another incursion, albeit on a larger than usual scale, or step one of some bigger and short-term plan.
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Oct 30, 2023 23:54
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I said come in! posted:They are a conscript army that has lost over 300 soldiers since the war began, and 6 tanks that have entered Gaza have been destroyed. They are great at dropping bombs on innocent people, but their soldiers are not well trained, they dont have experience in urban warfare. They are entering a type of combat that even the U.S. was unable to be successful in. My understanding is that the vast majority of Israeli soldiers died in the original surprise attack, and I don't think either Hamas or Israel claimed that more than even a dozen died during IDF's ground operation in Gaza. The same goes for at least 3 out of 6 tanks, and I think there was only one confirmed lost since (Israel has ~600 in total). Hamas have also lost a considerable amount of soldiers in the Oct 7 attack, and even the indiscriminate fire by IDF probably inflicts some additional losses and doesn't kill 100% civilians. It's safe to assume Hamas also suffers losses in skirmishes with Israelis on the ground. Israel claims that at least Hamas fighters were killed in the Oct 7 attack, which is not a reliable number, obviously, but even if it's only one third of that, Hamas is at a disadvantage. I don't know how all this will end, but I don't see any indication so far that Hamas has an upper hand militarily, and unless some neighbouring countries enter the conflict beyond Hezbollah's small-scale attacks, I don't see how it can change.
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Oct 31, 2023 14:02
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Alchenar posted:Just like the fantastic success Israel had controlling the flow of fighters, weapons and ammunition into the country for the last 20 years with complete control of all the borders but the one with Egypt! Are there many foreigners among Hamas fighters in Gaza? Do they have tanks or other armoured vehicles? How many rockets that are not made of pipes and fertiliser do they have? How many fighters are equipped with something better than a 50-year-old AK-47 and patriotic zeal? Do they have access to a sizeable fleet of drones? To my knowledge, answers to all those questions indicate that Israel was indeed successful in controlling the flow of fighters, weapons, and ammunition. This heavily editorialised CNN article that tries to portray Hamas' arsenal as seriously dangerous only shows that their equipment is mostly obsolete, and whatever new stuff they managed to smuggle from Iran is not available in large numbers. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/13/middleeast/hamas-weapons-invs/index.html Hamas had the element of surprise on their side on Oct 7, but they only have their tunnels and general advantage from being on the defence in urban combat. It doesn't look like either Hezbollah oh Houthis managed to inflict any considerable damage on Israel, so it remains to be seen if their involvement will result in anything tangible.
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Nov 1, 2023 00:34
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According to the IDF, 13 soldiers died during the ground operation in Gaza, 11 of whom are named. All of them were from 19 to 21 years old. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-771111 Are there any estimates from Hamas about military losses on both sides? E: They've named all 13 now, it seems. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Nov 1, 2023 |
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Nov 1, 2023 14:56
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Stringent posted:The C-SPAM thread is the place to go if you want more up to date reports on things (accurate or otherwise): https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3842990&pagenumber=1457#lastpost No, thank you. But if there is a post relevant to my question there, feel free to quote it here.
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Nov 1, 2023 15:08
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FirstnameLastname posted:memri had clear examples posted of them flat-out lying, and then lying about lying, aswell as hiding that they're an Israeli intelligence operation. unless you have something that says/proves Boots lies about poo poo too, i think that's how it's different If he doesn't speak Arabic, I don't think his creative and political achievements are relevant to the topic at hand.
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Nov 2, 2023 05:23
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i fly airplanes posted:What is the MO of the IDF? Do you think National Review, a magazine with a very strong editorial bias, is an objective source on the objectivity of the academic in question?
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Nov 2, 2023 17:13
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HonorableTB posted:I'm still of the opinion that the hospital strike was a PIJ rocket misfire rather than an Israeli airstrike simply because we have seen enough evidence of verified Israeli airstrikes on hospitals that I find it hard to believe that this one time they targeted a hospital, their super accurate guided weapons instead hit an adjacent parking lot instead of the intended hospital. To me the biggest evidence that the hospital wasn't hit by Israel is that the hospital is still standing to begin with. Israel has shown little to no compuncture about civilian targets and their weaponry is as accurate as you can get. It doesn't make sense why they'd miss this time instead of blowing up the hospital like they have been doing previously (even hitting the same hospital a few days earlier! But now they miss?? By that much of a margin?) If the hospital was the intended target then in any case even if the first missile WAS an Israeli miss, their doctrine is to use multiple munitions anyway, and the hospital wasn't hit with any follow up strikes. Israel is predictable in their brutality such that you can get an idea of who attacked what by how relatively destructive it is compared to known Israeli attacks. What if they targeted the car park specifically? \/\/\/ The official number was 471 in the end. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 18:35 on Nov 2, 2023 |
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Nov 2, 2023 18:27
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Looks like the IDF didn't encounter any significant resistance so far and managed to besiege Northern Gaza. https://twitter.com/leventkemaI/status/1720109427712241974 Confirmed by Gazan authorities. https://twitter.com/ytirawi/status/1720126189975511217 Are Hamas betting on prolonged guerrilla warfare in the region?
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Nov 2, 2023 18:54
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Typo posted:doesn't look like they have entered the heavily urbanized part of north gaza yet Makes sense that they feel like they have a better chance in the city proper. I guess we'll have to wait and see if Israel has any plan of smoking Hamas out of those tunnels apart from just bombing until the entire city is uninhabitable 100 metres deep, and also if Hamas actually had a plan or just failed to prevent Israel from cutting off roads and are now scrambling to hold on to at least some urban areas.
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Nov 2, 2023 19:45
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Would a Palestinian Authority spokesman really know what Hamas is feeling about Iran and Hezbollah? Are you thinking of a different guy? Mousa Abu Marzook is a senior Hamas member, not Palestinian Authority.
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Nov 3, 2023 00:29
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What that video with a tank doesn't show, from what I can tell, is a destroyed or even a damaged tank. So while it might be a great stunt for propaganda value alone, it remains to be seen how effective it really was, if at all.WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Nah, at the start of the article it uses an unnamed 'PA security official' as a source of Hamas' current mood Got it, your screenshot was a bit misleading. BUUNNI posted:Why is it news that older Americans are less progressive and are more willing to overlook Israel's warcrimes than their younger counterparts? That same poll has an age breakdown that shows Israel losing support among the <35 cohort, which is the cohort that is going to matter the most electorally in the coming years. Israel completely hosed up. Not sure what you're basing this on. The chart shows that even among younger voters, there was no swing away from support for Israel after Israel's disproportionate response to the Oct 7 attack. In fact, apart from Dems, support for Israel increased significantly. At best you can say that support for Palestine increased also. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 00:56 on Nov 3, 2023 |
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Nov 3, 2023 00:47
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BUUNNI posted:4.9% to 10.5% is a swing. And 14% to 27.4%?
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Nov 3, 2023 01:10
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BUUNNI posted:The trend seems to be that Israel is losing support and will hopefully continue to lose more as their war crimes ramp up. It is unfortunate that most Americans have few problems with funding muslim genocide and ethnic cleansing in the 21st century but it seems like the rest of the world is doing better than them in that regard. I am seriously dumbfounded by the way you interpret that data. Can you explain your maths in more detail? How are numbers that show strengthened support for Israel even among younger voters (18.7% to 30.5% or 1.64x increase compared to 8.3% to 11.5% or 1.38x increase) actually show waning support for Israel? And that not even mentioning that among voters of all ages support for Palestine grew even less impressively compared to support for Israel. Are you sure you're reading the numbers correctly?
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Nov 3, 2023 02:30
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How many Hamas fighters are there? I think someone in the thread mentioned 30k, but that can't be all of them, surely. And what about other militarised groups like PIJ, how numerous are they?
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Nov 3, 2023 13:08
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Re the discussion about Gazans turning on Hamas. There was a poll from before Oct 7 that indicated that Hamas was maybe losing support. https://www.arabbarometer.org/media-news/what-palestinians-really-think-of-hamas/ A different poll suggested that Hamas still had majority support, even though people would prefer PA to have some oversight over them. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/polls-show-majority-gazans-were-against-breaking-ceasefire-hamas-and-hezbollah I'm not entirely convinced polls can be very accurate in Gaza, but what I think those polls show is that Hamas had at least significant support prior to the attack. There also must be some rallying around the flag now that Israel has unleashed unprecedented destruction upon Gaza. I simply don't see how Israel's actions can convince anyone in Gaza to switch sides when Israel doesn't provide any message of hope to Gazans. If Israel employed anything but blind rage in its campaign, they would be promising to lift the blockade, negotiating with Fatah to ensure that there is a government in place when all is said and done, and, most importantly, broadcasting some vision of how Gaza can be rebuild. I haven't seen anything so far from Israel that would even hint at benefits for Gazans at large from the elimination of Hamas. I don't know if Hamas is winning the propaganda war globally or in the Middle East, but Israel is not even participating in the propaganda war in Gaza itself. It's bizarre, really.
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Nov 3, 2023 14:20
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BUUNNI posted:Explain the difference between "settlement" and "Israeli settlement" please. They are both the same thing. I believe neither the Palestinian residents of Gaza nor the Israeli settlers would call them anything other than settlements. Kfar Aza literally means Gaza Village. Sorry if it comes off as rude, but you can start by reading this wikipedia article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_settlement I realise it's confusing when specialised terms are similar to common words, but there is a meaningful distinction between what is called Israeli villages/towns/cities and what is called Israeli settlements.
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Nov 3, 2023 15:55
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Young Freud posted:Not sure if there was anybody there. The video from the raid makes it look abandoned. If it was abandoned, it was probably in a hurry if they didn't take the plans with them. Or the plans were left there deliberately. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Nov 4, 2023 |
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Nov 4, 2023 02:04
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Soylent Yellow posted:They're actually Arabic Numerals. Europe adopted them during the middle ages to replace Roman numerals. There are actual Arabic numerals different from the ones we use.  But my understanding is their use is not completely ubiquitous nowadays. When I was checking the website of Palestinian Ministry of Health, they had Western numerals for various things there, like phone numbers, quantities, dates (although that one just might be a quirk of date format localisation), 19 in COVID-19, etc. I don't know, however, if military would use Western numerals on maps or whatever. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Nov 4, 2023 |
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Nov 4, 2023 14:43
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Reik posted:Or the IDF is lying again. Unlike with 'al-Qaeda manuals', I don't see any reason for them to lie about those plans. They are defensive plans, so their propaganda value is dubious. Another possible option, though, is that the plans are from ten years ago and are simply no longer relevant. The fact that there are CDs, when even Israel claimed that Hamas militants had thumb drives on them, could mean that that 'stronghold' was actually abandoned a long time ago for whatever reason. Or the plans are actually for some sewer maintenance.
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Nov 4, 2023 22:34
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Reik posted:Because the "defensive plans" they show include the refugee camp the IDF bombed just the other day in them, and the existence of Hamas defensive plans for a refugee camp feeds in to the narrative that IDF was justified in bombing said camp. Ah, sorry, wasn't mentioned in that twitter thread. Makes a lot of sense, if that's the case.
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Nov 4, 2023 23:18
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As much as I am sceptical of Hamas' footage, the IDF's claims of taking out 400 'targets' appear to be even less substantiated than however many dozens of Merkavas Hamas claim they've destroyed.
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Nov 5, 2023 15:48
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Vernii posted:The IDF has admitted to losing ~20 KIA and ~260 wounded in Gaza (which can be a range anywhere from being treated with first aid to 'technically alive') so clearly the weaponry being used against Israeli armor is effective. The question is how much ammo do Hamas have and what losses do they suffer? If, unlike previous incursions, the IDF intend to 'finish the job' even if it costs them several thousand soldiers, provided Hamas' allies don't try to invade Israel, it's not like Hamas can win a war of attrition. ~20 KIA may sound dramatic for the usually casualty-averse IDF, but objectively it's a drop in the ocean. Also, it looks like Israel's wounded can be quickly moved to hospitals inside of Israel. If the IDF can also extract and repair damaged tanks, unless a tank is destroyed completely, even if Hamas damage 60 tanks a month, Israel could be able to rotate them for years on end. There is simply no way for Hamas to effectively Israel's military infrastructure or disrupt their logistics with the weapons they have, while they also don't have much infrastructure beyond the improvised assembly lines for their cheap rockets and, well, the tunnels. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Nov 5, 2023 |
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Nov 5, 2023 18:03
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Vernii posted:If you're trying to get into hypotheticals, Israel's political will and economy will collapse before that point, they don't have the ability to sustain thousands of losses. Military operations do not exist in a vacuum. Obviously, I was only talking about military capabilities, although I imagine billions of dollars graciously provided by Israel's Western allies would help with the whole economy collapsing thing. Meanwhile, Gaza's economy is not just crippled or on the verge of collapse, it literally lies in ruin. Whether Israel 'eliminates Hamas' or not is immaterial if they can keep up their presence in Gaza over a long period and kill a hundred of civilians for every militant.
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Nov 5, 2023 19:48
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Many pages ago, but someone asked about the prophecy of Isaiah that Netanyahu referenced. The relevant bit in the context of religious Zionism is Isaiah 66:6-17. That and several preceding chapters reflect on the rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem, and there is an obvious theme of return to the promised land. So, no, Bibi wasn't implying he was a Messiah, he was just trotting out an old classic.
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Nov 6, 2023 01:35
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According to the IDF, they are now operating within Gaza City proper. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-is-open-gaza-fighting-pauses-aid-hostages-2023-11-07/ quote:Troops on foot and in armoured vehicles and tanks "have one target - Hamas terrorists in Gaza, their infrastructure, their commanders, bunkers, communications rooms," Gallant said. Either we will see a sharp increase in Israeli casualties very soon, or Hamas' urban warfare plan wasn't that great after all.
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Nov 8, 2023 13:30
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The one thing I saw publicised recently was a rocket launching site claimed to be in a youth centre near a mosque. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/379831
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Nov 8, 2023 16:49
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mitztronic posted:I feel bad for breaking the rules including any of the videos, so here are a few I looked up (I had to stop because there's only so much I could take in a day.): Yeah, I think the one I posted is the most convincing of the bunch, and it is still not 100% convincing. Videos where you can only see a hole in the ground are basically worthless as far as real evidence goes. When the IDF wanted to justify their bombing of a refugee camp, they had no problem of posting a video of them raiding some kind of an outpost and showing defence plans they found (or 'found') here, so it's highly suspicious that here they chose to only show a non-descript hole or a door leading to what can be a regular cellar.
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Nov 8, 2023 18:48
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Marenghi posted:https://x.com/JalalAK_jojo/status/1722376328760947143?s=20 If I read the law correctly, it somehow aims to distinguish between consumption for the purpose of being informed and consumption for the purpose of support. So Israeli media obviously can quote Hamas when they say they want to destroy Israel or whatever to show how bad they are, but there is always a possibility of a thoughtcrime occurring when you read the words 'death to Israel', I guess.
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Nov 9, 2023 14:49
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7c Nickel posted:You don't have to believe Israel, Brazil has confirmed that "On Wednesday, Brazil arrested two people on terrorism charges as part of an operation to take down a suspected Hezbollah cell planning attacks on Brazilian soil." Someone who knows Brazil's political landscape better can comment, but it doesn't look like Brazil's Ministry of Justice is in the pocket of Bolsonaro or otherwise would make an explicitly pro-Israeli arrest on trumped-up charges. There must be at least some credibility to claims of a possible Hezbollah terrorist attack. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 00:59 on Nov 10, 2023 |
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Nov 9, 2023 23:09
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BUUNNI posted:I'm sorry but the statement "validating that it's not complete bullshit" is one of the worst weasel-wordings I have ever encountered. That's not what the word "validate" means. And it certainly is not a "massive event", it's two guys who have been caught up in a law-enforcement operation and they were apparently Lebanese. Let's maybe wait and see the results of Brazil's judicial proceedings before we start claiming there are shocking geopolitical machinations happening around the world that give any credence to the Zionist's current genocide against the people of Gaza. What do you mean by 'and they were apparently Lebanese'?
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Nov 10, 2023 01:04
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Don't think it was posted yet. A very interesting first-hand account of how Israel warns people that their homes are about to be destroyed for no apparent reason. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67327079 quote:"I'm speaking with you from Israeli intelligence," a man said down the line, according to Mahmoud. I doubt they try very hard to find someone like Mahmoud if the first person they pick is less cooperative, but it's surreal that they patiently waited for people to leave their homes only to make them watch their lives destroyed. Also, interesting that they have someone with perfect Arabic for those calls but not for the calls they claim they intercepted.
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Nov 12, 2023 14:30
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Private Speech posted:Is there any evidence they do it frequently (or indeed more than once)? All I've seen is that one story. There were reports that after Oct 7, many residential buildings were bombed without any warning whatsoever, but my understanding is they still do that to some extent. We know, for example, that they 'warned' some hospitals in advance. Rigged Death Trap posted:'Door knock' bombs are the standard. Maybe in that particular case they literally knew there were no Hamas fighters in the area and basically wanted to demolish those buildings in advance, so Hamas have fewer places to hide later. In any case, it doesn't read like a puff piece to me. It's absolutely atrocious what Mahmoud and his neighbours had to go through, and you know they are the lucky ones.
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Nov 12, 2023 15:39
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The IDF have shared a video that they claim shows Hamas militants attacking an Israeli tank from the entrance of the Al-Quds hospital. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-at-war/1699881898-idf-releases-footage-of-hamas-firing-rpg-from-gaza-city-hospital quote:According to the Israeli military's statement, "the soldiers identified a terrorist squad with two RPG launchers amongst the civilians. During the exchange of fire, civilians were seen leaving the hospital building, and other terrorists who came out of adjacent buildings hid among them and joined the attempted attack." The video they shared doesn't seem to show that or that 'terrorists [...] returned into the hospital after the clash', however. With tanks so close to the hospital itself it's not really that surprising that they are attacked by someone who is also close to the hospital, and if they really were inside the building, I imagine the IDF would be able to provide more convincing footage.
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Nov 13, 2023 17:35
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Main Paineframe posted:Whether the footage is convincing doesn't really matter. They've already achieved their objective with that release: to get you focusing on the footage itself, rather than the part at the end where they opened fire on the entrance to the hospital with guns and tank cannons, killing 21 people: Yes, that's a good point. I don't know if the video shows them opening return fire and at whom exactly, but the lack of follow-up footage suggests it probably wasn't surgical.
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Nov 13, 2023 18:00
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Google Jeb Bush posted:the hope for Gaza is that Israel decides the combination of miscellaneous casualties and bad press for X0,000 civilians killed is getting a little high, declares victory, and goes home I really hope that they at least stop bombing the city now that they claim Hamas no longer controls it. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-has-lost-control-of-gaza-says-israeli-defense-minister/ Yoav Gallant posted:“There is no force of Hamas capable of stopping the IDF. The IDF is advancing to every point. The Hamas organization has lost control of Gaza. Terrorists are fleeing south. Civilians are looting Hamas bases. They have no confidence in the government,” says Gallant, after an assessment of the fighting. 
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Nov 13, 2023 20:14
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I think there's almost no chance Israel stops until (at the very least) they kill the two men they've identified as bearing ultimate responsibility for the 10/7 attacks - letting them get away would essentially be an admission of defeat. That would presumably require them to breach deep into the tunnel system which will be difficult. Haven't they already said they'd killed one of them? Ravenfood posted:Pretty sure they are in the mode of "every male age 16 (or plausibly deniable as such) or older is actually a terrorist" so, while Hamas no longer "controls" it they'll just keep genociding anyway. It looks like they are aware of how bad it all looks and maybe, and again, I hope, it's enough to make them reconsider. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/fm-cohen-israel-has-2-3-weeks-before-international-pressure-for-ceasefire-becomes-significant/ quote:Speaking during a briefing to reporters, Cohen says that his diplomatic counterparts have emphasized humanitarian issues during the conversations he has held with them and some have requested that Israel seek a ceasefire, although they have not done so publicly. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Nov 13, 2023 |
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Nov 13, 2023 20:45
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Neurolimal posted:I think Netanyahu's survival specifically is an outlier, in that he marketed himself specifically on something like October 7th never happening. If say, Hassan Rouhani had ran on "America will never be able to fire a missile at our generals!" then I'd imagine responses would be different, along with if Bush had said "Under my watch, no irregular group will ever get into America and terrorize us!". Constantly bombing Gaza into submission was supposed to keep it a non-factor while Israel gobbled up the West Bank. Why would you compare it to Gallup when you can just compare it to previous YouGov polls?  https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/47710-americans-are-growing-less-sympathetic-to-israel-as-war-fears-grow E: Didn't notice you edited the post. But if you look at the data, support levels barely changed compared to pre-Oct 7. The bump is only there because some people who normally don't care thought that they could form an opinion now that the conflict is in the news again. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Nov 14, 2023 |
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Nov 14, 2023 00:44
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Kokoro Wish posted:Note that the YouGov poll is not talking about Palestine or Palestinians. It's talking about Hamas. Uhm, no? It's very explicitly about sympathy towards the Israelis, the Palestinians, or both.
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Nov 14, 2023 02:47
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