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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
It's hard to see the attack as success without seeing the damage. Iran claims that they've completely destroyed the base they targeted, but Israel says that it was only slightly damaged and continues to operate. If what Iran says is true, it's definitely successful, sure, but only Israel would know that.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

quote:

The Biden administration made clear to the Palestinians that current U.S. law compels the administration to veto such a resolution or defund the UN, a U.S. official said.

What law is referenced here?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Of course there's a law like that, lol. Was it passed on the back of the Oslo Accords? In any case, I bet with a modicum of creative thinking, one could easily argue that Palestine has enough 'internationally recognized attributes of statehood'.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Barrel Cactaur posted:

It's a circular argument because under the relevant international law full UN recognition de jure validates a state as meeting those criteria.

De facto: The requirements are a permanent territory, a permanent population, a government that nominally has authority over that territorial claim, and that that government can conduct international affairs. Note that the government being recognized doesn't need firm or exclusive control of its whole territory claim, though at least some portion must be under it's control (Gaza is not a stumbling block, even if interested parties would claim otherwise, and the settlements are a solvable issue as most states consider them non legitimate claims) states have been admitted while in civil wars, so neither is the existence of Hamas. The lack of recent elections has never mattered. The population is not just passing through. The government of the West bank already conducts international relations, and could assert more control over the territory. Israel's only choices would be war, or capitulation. Additionally being an independent state makes it way simpler for other parties to legally intervene, even if practicaly non of them actually would

So it's likely several very interesting people are being intentionally wrong on the interpretation of the law. Also I know of at least 4 laws that cover this and suspect there are far more. Of those 4 all are either permanently waivable or dissolve automaticaly with full UN recognition. I couldn't find the one referencing Israelis approval being required.

I mean, just recently the US representative said that the UN Security Council resolution pushing for an immediate ceasefire wasn't binding (and therefore didn't need to be vetoed), even though all Security Council resolutions are binding by default. An obscure law can definitely be interpreted however based on what is seen as more prudent in the moment.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
So if it was just a handful drones, does it mean Israel wanted a token retaliation and nothing more? I guess it's good that everyone's happy with a draw for now.

Interestingly, Iran seems to downplay the strike to the extent of calling it an infiltration rather than an attack directly from Israel.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

hadji murad posted:

The Guardian picked up the baby born to a dead mother but not the mass graves.

I think other big outlets reported neither.

I wonder how much is not wanting to know, or bias towards Israel, or bitterness towards journalists on the ground doing a better job than western orgs could ever do.

It’s a complete failure of the western media, and they don’t deserve our trust ever again.

Remember the next time they are urging military intervention.

I see it reported pretty widely (E: even though it's obvious, since links are about mass graves, absolutely :nws: and :nms:)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f085ced9b0ba3a7

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-troops-storm-back-into-eastern-khan-younis-bodies-recovered-hospital-2024-04-22/
(Reuters, admittedly, doesn't have it in the headline, so it's easy to miss, but the article covers the destruction outside of the hospital, too)

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240422-scores-bodies-found-in-mass-graves-unearthed-at-hospital-in-gaza-khan-younis

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/dozens-of-bodies-exhumed-from-mass-graves-at-gaza-s-nasser-hospital-209449541862

Even by Daily Mail (with obvious caveats).
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13333661/gaza-claims-mass-grave-khan-yunis-raided-israeli-forces.html

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 16:49 on Apr 22, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Marenghi posted:

None of them seem to cover the report of the person in scrubs with their hands bound.

As far as I can tell, this information comes from the rescuers Al Jazeera spoke to, but it hasn't been visually or otherwise confirmed by them yet (at least they haven't commented on the photo mentioned by Nucleic Acids, although I also haven't seen the photo myself, so maybe I missed something). I don't doubt Al Jazeera's reporting, and one of the reasons I recommended Al Jazeera was that locals are more likely to speak to their journalists openly, plus they simply have more journalists on the ground. At the same time, if The Guardian or NBC weren't told the same by the people they spoke to and they also haven't seen it themselves, you get what you get. When the claim is echoed by a Gazan official or by an international organisation, I'm sure we'll see it reported. France 24, for example, cites Mahmud Bassal, spokesman for the civil defence agency, and it doesn't look like he mentioned bodies with hands tied behind their backs elsewhere either, and my guess is he simply was unaware of the reports at the time.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Szarrukin posted:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...re_iOSApp_Other


Surprising absolutely no one, there is absolutely no proof for UNRWA connections with terrorism other than "trust us bro"

It was very clear from the start. The allegation was a follow-up to calling independent Western media terrorist collaborators for using photos by local Gazan freelancers in their coverage of October 7. It's a blatant attempt to delegitimise any international organisation that may be vocal about Israel's war on the civilian population of Gaza.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
I don't think it deserved a probe, to be honest. It was meant as an opinion, a strongly worded one, but not a statement of fact that would require some level of evidence. Even being wrong is not supposed to be probatable, as long as it's in good faith.

E: sorry, didn't reload the page.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
You shouldn't believe everything you see on social media, be it a distressed 'Gazan nurse' who says Hamas fighters are hiding inside her hospital or a video of a red dot. So many truly heinous acts committed by the IDF were either reported by reputable sources or documented by IDF soldiers themselves, there is hardly any reason to bring up something yet unconfirmed, especially when it looks so extraordinarily outlandish.

E: Not saying that it isn't happening, by the way, just that the presented evidence is flimsy.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Apr 25, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Charliegrs posted:

I could believe that Israel is using loudspeakers on drones with crying baby sounds but I don't know if it's to lure people out because who the gently caress is going to go outside to investigate a creepy flying baby cry? I think it's probably more to just harass the gently caress out of people and keep them from sleeping. It's a common tactic that is used by riot police when they have suspects holed up in a house they will bring out loudspeakers and blast really annoying sounds like heavy metal music all night to keep the suspects from getting any sleep and thus they can resist much less effectively.

This interpretation makes it much more plausible to me. If it's less about luring someone in closer to the drone and more about forcing someone out of shelter, it doesn't matter how realistic the sound is, it just needs to be loud and annoying.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Majorian posted:

I wonder what Israel is going to say...:thunk:

Oh, let's ask the deputy mayor of Jerusalem, who has been making the rounds on Western media lately!

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1783405480947146947

:stare:

Her response to the host was not exactly convincing, btw:

After watching so many Israeli spokespeople in Western media basically saying the same thing with zero adjustments for newly uncovered atrocities, it's clear to me that it's more about quantity than quality. They have someone who speaks English for every Western TV channel, radio, university public appearance, blog, YouTube channel, twitter, they are everywhere. And with no exception, the dumbest talking heads with three prepared sound bites and not a glimmer of thought or a shred of empathy in their eyes.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Apr 26, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
I have a question, actually, because I don't think it comes up in the news a lot. What's the situation with Israeli Arabs right now? Knowing Israel's policing practices and the rise of extreme anti-Arabic sentiment, I suspect a lot of them understandably prefer to lay low fearing persecution rather than participate in protests or more radical action. At the same time, the last time the United Arab List was in the news was when their delegation visited Jordan a month or so ago, and I imagine not all Israeli Arabs are satisfied with their efforts. The latest poll I could find was too close to Oct 7 and indicated increased sense of 'kinship with Israel', but I expect that the overall mood could have changed since.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-high-support-among-arab-israelis-for-volunteering-during-war/

Marenghi posted:

Why can't they find any native Israeli spokespeople?
It's always emigres from the US, UK, Australia, or people who fled Rhodesia and Apartheid Africa.

They probably think they are seen as more relatable by white westerners who is the primary audience. It's all very cynical and stupid.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Shageletic posted:

I mean right now you can be arrested, as an Israeli Arab, for scrolling the internet (https://www.commondreams.org/news/israel-counterterrorism-law), can be stripped of their citizenship for a multitude of offenses, and "[c]ivil rights lawyers say Israeli authorities are interpreting any expressions of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza as incitement" (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-police-crack-down-arab-citizens-expressing-solidarity-with-gaza-2023-10-20/), they are laying low. Even with the recent settler attacks on Palestinian civilians in the West Bank.

Yes, I saw these reports last year, but then they disappeared from the news very soon after and Palestinians in the West Bank now seem to be bearing the brunt of Israel's police action. I would be really interested if there was an outlet or even a blog that covers current events specifically from the Israeli Arab perspective, as it seems to me to be very underrepresented. Even +972 are understandably focused almost entirely on what's going on with Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank.

\/\/\/ Thanks, I'll check it out.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Apr 26, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
More like Density. Because he's very dense, you see.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Is there a breakdown somewhere that details how the $26 billion from the recent bill meant 'for Israel and for humanitarian aid in Gaza and other places' will be spent? Assuming the US is not planning to start cooperating with UNRWA again, where does the money go now? And more importantly, how much of it, if any, is actually earmarked for Palestine?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Pentecoastal Elites posted:

the “F*** the Jews,” “Down with the Jews,” doesn't seem to be sourced from anywhere, or at least nowhere I could find beyond maybe the op ed writers' imaginations. The only thing I've found anywhere about anyone saying anything like that was, it turned out, from counterprotestor agitators

I think I've tracked down the video they reference.

https://www.instagram.com/stories/highlights/18181895974294813/
(I don't know how to link to a specific highlight video, but the relevant part starts from the second one)

Obviously, the source is Chabad Columbia, and we don't see full context around the clips. Plus, it would be wrong to conclude that it somehow represents the entire protest, but I would say some rhetoric there does cross the line.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
The discussion about the pier got me thinking about how much aid is getting into Gaza right now and how much is still needed. In different news articles, I see conflicting reports on how many trucks enter through the two crossings, how many carry food, and how many would be needed to feed everyone.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68551965

There are multiple conversions between tonnes, truckloads, and meals that I'm struggling to follow, and with local food production, I assume, being completely decimated the number of trucks needed to feed everyone would at least double or triple. What's the most recent in-depth overview of the situation on the ground? Outside of the two crossings, is aid even reaching people who are further away from the border or are there also logistical issues on top of how much aid is allowed in?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

quote:

He pointed out that the trucks screened by COGAT were "typically only half-full. That is a requirement that they have put in place for screening purposes".

This part really puts reported numbers in perspective...

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Fidelitious posted:

For what theoretical reason would Hamas attack the pier? Is it supposed to be the thing about them stealing supplies again?

Why would they attack American soldiers? Because they are soldiers and American. With America's role in the conflict, why wouldn't they attack them?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Jaxyon posted:

So to get this straight, you think the Qassam brigades will attack the pier feeding their people?

Even some people in this thread are extremely sceptical that the pier will actually be used for anything good. Why would fighters in Gaza be more trusting of Biden's initiative?

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Jaxyon posted:

So you think that they're pre-attack it before it can do anything, or that they'll decide to attack it because it's not feeding enough of their supporters?

I'm really struggling to see the logic here that isn't "muslims be violent". Israel attacking makes sense, as they have along record of attacking things that help palestinians, but Hamas doesn't.

I think they will see American soldiers as a legitimate target. Because they are soldiers. From America. Which is exactly what a high-ranking Hamas official said.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Jaxyon posted:

Can you source that quote?

It's from the previous page.

https://apnews.com/article/hamas-kh...94%20he%20said.

quote:

“We categorically reject any non-Palestinian presence in Gaza, whether at sea or on land, and we will deal with any military force present in these places, Israeli or otherwise … as an occupying power,” he said.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Jaxyon posted:

So a Hamas official said they'd see the US as occupiers, not that they'd attack a pier feeding their people. That quote reads as posturing.

I still don't get why you think that they'd attack it if it was supplying food. As I said, they have no history of that, while Israel has a huge history of that.

Who do you think will be manning the pier?

Are you really insisting that fighters in Gaza have no reason to attack American soldiers? Military personnel from the country that supports Israel by giving it billions in military aid?

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 03:26 on May 3, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Turnout is usually low among young people. I bet this also has some influence here.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Gnumonic posted:

Or, to try this another way: Take a look at the actual ranking of most important issues. If I'm reading that correctly, foreign policy is roughly of the same importance as abortion/healthcare. If it were true that issues that aren't ranked highly can be ignored, then the democrats would be justified in completely ignoring abortion & healthcare, since they matter as much as foreign policy. You'd have to be a totally delusional moron to think that those issues don't contribute to people's voting patterns (both whether they vote & who they vote for if they do), even though they're both dwarfed in importance by the economy/inflation.

For fun, observe that "Protecting Democracy", which seems to be the the issue Democrats are leading with, was also only ranked as the most important issue by 3% of the voters - exactly the same as foreign policy or abortion. By your reasoning, most people really don't care about protecting democracy either, so it surely won't influence anyone's vote. A less asinine take on this would be: "Which issue is the most important?" is a totally useless metric for predicting how people are going to vote.

The discussion is kind of getting too much into the weeds of American politics, but the poll you quoted is not that good for what you are trying to prove. When given only one thing to choose, a lot of otherwise important issues get 1-2%, because they are seen as not high level enough. It's easier to pick 'fix all of the economy' over something more specific like 'sort out oil prices' because it covers more of the issues you care about. This is because the poll is less about specific issues and more about economic v. non-economic.

Here's a better poll for what you're talking about
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...her-key-issues/

It shows that things like healthcare or race relations are actually on a lot of people's minds and so they are picked up by politicians for their platforms.


While I don't think that the war in Gaza is important for the majority of the youth vote, it's one of the many issues where they are dissatisfied with Biden's performance and it definitely contributes to his diminishing support among younger millennials and gen z.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202403291554.pdf

How much exactly it contributes is debatable, though. This youth poll from March suggests that for many young people there are more important issues.

https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024


So in theory, Biden may be betting on some big announcement on one of the higher priority issues to win young people back. Or it's all just tea leaves, I don't know.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Preparations for the Rafah offensive are in full swing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68961753

I'm sure this will help Israel's image of the only free democracy in the region.

quote:

The Association for Civil Rights in Israel (ACRI) said they had filed a request to the country's Supreme Court to issue an interim order to overturn the ban.

The group said that claims that the broadcaster was a propaganda tool for Hamas were "unfounded", and that Sunday's ban was less about security concerns and more to "serve a more politically motivated agenda, aimed at silencing critical voices and targeting Arab media".

The Foreign Press Association (FPA) urged the Israeli government to reconsider its decision, saying the shut down of Al Jazeera in the country should be "a cause for concern for all supporters of a free press".

The FPA said in a statement that Israel now joins "a dubious club of authoritarian governments to ban the station", and warned that Mr Netanyahu has the authority to target other foreign outlets that he considers to be "acting against the state".

The Committee to Protect Journalists' (CPJ) Program Director Carlos Martinez de la Serna echoed the same concerns, saying: "The Israeli cabinet must allow Al Jazeera and all international media outlets to operate freely in Israel, especially during wartime."

The UN's Human Rights office also called the Israeli government to reverse the ban, posting on X: "A free & independent media is essential to ensuring transparency & accountability. Now, even more so given tight restrictions on reporting from Gaza."

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

E2M2 posted:

Channel 12 is saying Israel rejects the ceasefire

Wasn't the deal written up by Israel to begin with? I remember Blinken called it Israel's 'generous offer'. Just absolutely unhinged diplomacy.

E: looks like Hamas accepted the offer from Egypt that Israel hasn't even considered yet and is very likely to decline.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 19:36 on May 6, 2024

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Moktaro posted:

Hmm yes the extremely online phrase "*, my beloved", totally a normal thing that people say out in the real world. :thunk:

It was in Arabic. Ya Hamas, ya habib, odrob, odrob Tel Aviv. It rhymes.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Your Brain on Hugs posted:

It feels like the US defunding UNRWA has sort of been forgotten, but it seems to me at least like it's extremely significant in terms of the ongoing famine in Gaza. Also seems like an extremely clear violation of the ICJs recommendations about not contributing to genocide. With what the US has been saying about the ICC though, it's clear they don't feel bound by institutions like that at all.

I wonder what effects this is going to have in the coming decade. I feel like the US is openly making GBS threads all over even the pretence of the rules based international order in a way they were previously smart enough to avoid. Soft power has always been a huge tool in the US's maintenance of their hegemony, I feel like they might have degraded it significantly, but time will tell.

My understanding is that in the short term, it's not that significant because the next payment is only due this summer (I believe it's true for America, Germany, and EU). The main problem right now is less with funding and more with Israel interfering in various ways with aid getting into Gaza and problems of getting aid directly to people in an active war zone in general. In the long term, of course, if the conflict continues for another half a year with the same intensity and funding doesn't resume, even though some countries increased their contributions and other agencies and orgs try to fill in where possible, UNRWA will run out of money and it is bound to have tremendous and horrifying repercussions for the region, as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gazan refugee camps depend on UNRWA for basic needs.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

punishedkissinger posted:

I think raising the blood pressure of people like this is good, even if it's not a huge material shift in policy.

https://twitter.com/itamarbengvir/status/1788458123436433783

It's a start. Hope to see many more tweets like this from Ben-Gvir in the future.

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Young Freud posted:

You would think that, but those stockpiles have been getting depleted because they've been using them. Supposedly, they were getting into stockpiles that the US sold to them after the Vietnam War and finding out they dudded out and Hamas was repurposing them as IEDs against Israeli invasion. They were so exhausted they were using 50 year old explosives and in such quantities that they gave their enemies a reliable logistics chain.

Is there a source for this?

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
The article doesn't list the lack of the more modern bombs as the reason, so I am not entirely convinced Israel is about to run out of ammunition.

quote:

Why use MK-84s?

1) Getting rid of old stock 

Generally, air forces are known to use old stockpiles, says Brian Castner, a senior crisis adviser at Amnesty International, who specialises in weapons and military operations.

Bombs are expensive to store and maintain and need to be kept under heavy guard. They have a shelf life and, after a point, it can become dangerous to handle and load them, so it makes sense to drop the oldest first.  

What’s more, if Elbit Systems - which has hired multiple former high-ranking IDF officers and wields influence over the IDF - wants Israel to stock up on MPR-500s, then it would be in its commercial interest to pressure the IDF to get rid of its MK-84s as fast as possible.

Neither the IDF nor Elbit answered MEE's questions about this.

2) US pressure

Under a security assistance agreement spanning 2019-2028, the US has agreed - subject to congressional approval - to give Israel $3.8bn annually in foreign military financing, almost all of which it has to spend on US-made weapons. 

What Israel buys is mostly decided by the Pentagon, and the Pentagon also wants to get rid of old bombs. So the US may be looking to offload some of its MK-84s, which it has sold to Israel in the past.

A US Department of Defense spokesperson didn't reply to a request for comment.

3) Financial concerns

Every year, the Israeli defence ministry asks for a special extra budget to deal with unexpected threats.

And the more bombs the IDF drops, the more it needs to replenish its arsenal - and the more money it needs to do so.

In 2014, Netanyahu promised to cut the defence budget but reneged when the army demanded 10 billion Israeli shekels (more than $3bn) after its invasion of Gaza.

“We have to care for the standard of living, but first we have to care about life itself,” Netanyahu said of the decision, echoing fears stoked by the MOD that the IDF needed more investment to be ready for the next confrontation.

4) Operational necessity

On 14 May, the IDF misled foreign media that ground troops had entered Gaza, which some saw as a ploy to hit Hamas by driving their fighters into tunnels before striking them with more than 400 bombs.

As the so-called "Metro" is a vast network of tunnels, it’s not enough to breach it at a certain location. High-fragmentation bunker-busters, it could be argued, might have been likelier to kill and maim more underground fighters.

Regardless of the justifications, military or otherwise, the use of MK-84s in built-up civilian areas when the IDF has less harmful bombs in its arsenal that do the same job raises further questions under the laws of war about the proportionality - the potential loss of civilian life - of Israel's recent bombing campaign.

The article also says MK-84s are still manufactured, so it's hard to tell if they are new or from really old stockpiles.

E: Took a minute to get that NYT article. It also doesn't say there's a deficit of bombs, and Israel, in fact, was dumping older bombs from day one just because they have them. There seemingly was no gradual phasing in of increasingly old and unreliable bombs.

Paladinus fucked around with this message at 13:15 on May 10, 2024

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