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Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


I have a question for the thread and before I ask I'll say that I'm pretty uneducated when it comes to Israeli or Palestinian politics. That said, given that the two state solution appears to no longer be an option that that leaves only Full Citizenship for Palestinians. My question has two parts with the first being how feasible is this to begin with and if did occur would it make big enough difference?

On another note, it seems that there are indeed strong economic ties with Israeli but what goods and services are we referring to specifically? If the United States or other Countries decided to tell Netanyahu to completely go gently caress himself what would be lost exactly?

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Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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Yardbomb posted:

The US would save a shitload of money and that's mostly it.

Sure. I get that but money typical represents something. In the case of Israeli I'm sure US Defense Contractors would take a hit but I doubt it'd be that much.

FlamingLiberal posted:

It's never going to happen.

It's just more realistic than a two-state solution, which itself isn't remotely going to happen either.

In the case of a country like SA, the majority population was being ruled by a minority and that was never sustainable. So when the rest of the world cut economic ties with SA it eventually caused the collapse of the regime, although it took way, way too long. I don't know if there is any scenario where a very tightly controlled population like the Palestinians are going to be able to have any real leverage over the Israeli political situation. It just seems incredibly far fetched now.

Are you referring to Saudi Arabia? And why is it impossible? Or is the likely conclusion at this point that the Netanyahu government will simply slowly consume the West Bank and Gaza Strip?

I haven't read about the conflict forever but I am of the understanding Palestinians have done well in the United Nations and other International Courts. It seems if the US dropped support of Israeli or even partially that'd put them in a position where they'd have to negotiate.

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May 20, 2006

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FlamingLiberal posted:

South Africa.

The Israelis would have to re-write their Constitution to have a one-state solution and there is no way that will ever happen. At this point my belief is that eventually Israel will annex all of the West Bank and probably just leave Gaza as is, because it's a giant mess and there isn't any benefit to them trying to annex Gaza.

In theory if the US stopped vetoing all Israel-related resolutions at the UN something might happen, but I remember at the end of 2016 how much whining there was when Obama let one nonbinding resolution get through without a veto which basically just finger-wagged at Israel for settlements. No politician with any significant power in the US is going to rock the boat in regards to the US/Israeli relationship.

Blah! I should have known about SA!

It seems that - the general consensus - is that Israeli is going to slowly consume the remaining parts of Palestine and there isn't much at all that anyone can do to stop it. Which is freaking gross and awful. That said, I will say that when it comes to US Politics I do think there is indeed a shift in that at the minimum becoming much, much more skeptical of Israeli. This goes all the way from AOC, The Squad to even MSNBC.

And bombing the AP Headquarters I can't imagine is going to accomplish much beyond pissing of the entire mainstream journalism community.

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May 20, 2006

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PittTheElder posted:

Who would negotiate exactly? From the Israeli side you're talking about a well organized government with control of one of the most modern and capable militaries in the world (SA wishes they had what Israel has), and while it's government is particularly divided right now, the one thing they can agree on is that they sure as poo poo aren't giving full and equal rights to a bunch of Palestinians.

Maybe that changes if you can unite China and the USA to drop the sanction hammer on them, but uhhhhh don't hold your breath

Is there nothing the United Nations or any other international body can do to stop or push back against Isreali?

I'm trying to see if there any possible positive way out of this mess and honestly it doesn't look there is one. :smith:

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May 20, 2006

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PittTheElder posted:

When dealing with problems like this serious action is only possible if all of the Big 5 are on board. The UN was specifically set up by the Big 5 such that it could never be capable of effectively meddling in the business of said Big 5. It's a reasonably good discussion forum but it's not about to compel powerful nations to do anything.

This is a crisis that's been a century in the making, and it's not about to get cleaned up quickly. That said, getting the international community on board is going to be necessary, so definitely do bother the poo poo out of your local elected representative, assuming you have one.

Putting this down in text,

1. China
2. France
3. Russia
4. United Kingdom
5. United States

Thinking about this out loud - I could see the UK and France pushing back against Israeli. Maybe just maybe this will happen with US but I have a difficult time with seeing China and Russia getting on board.

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May 20, 2006

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madmatt112 posted:

Israel gets turbofucked almost overnight by militant, vengeful neighboring countries? I don’t know enough to make confident projections of scenarios.

I am off the understanding that earlier animosity towards Israeli has diminished over time along with strengthened economic ties would likely make this scenario unlikely. And I think that Israeli's military now even if they were all on their own would put up one hell of a insanely good fight especially given that most of the other Middle Eastern Countries don't have the capabilities to fight a modern war.

As a last resort, they do have Nuclear Weapons.

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May 20, 2006

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PittTheElder posted:

Nah Israel has normalized it's relations with its neighbors for long enough, that would probably rely on political change in neighboring states as well.

Even if all the Arab states still had a hard on for destroying Israel, historically only a coalition of Syria, Egypt, and Jordan has been able to really threaten Israel with military defeat. Israel is stronger now than its ever been, meanwhile Syria is mid civil war, the Egyptian regime has been bought off with a firehose of American money, and Jordan isn't anywhere near strong enough to go it alone.

The Syrian Civil War is essentially over. Assad won largely due to help from Putin. Granted, it's an extremely weak victory.

The only thing he has to show for it is that he's been able to maintain power at the cost of destroying his own cities and destroying his own economy. He's the king of a pile of rubble. The Countryside will won't ever be safe and controlled by bandits, ISIS and whatever remaining rebel groups exist.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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Even if it was purely a regional conflict, the deployment of Nuclear Weapons would be absolutely catastrophic. Even if a few of them went of it'd likely cause a mini-nuclear winter.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Why would that cause a nuclear winter?

If you nuked a city, it'd burn and all of the ash would go into the atmosphere blocking the sun. Even if it was a limited engagement, there would be global warming.

Here's a whole report on it - NUCLEAR FAMINE:A BILLION PEOPLE AT RISK

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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How can Isreali justify bombing desalination plants, sewage and other infrastructure? :wtc:

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May 20, 2006

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vuk83 posted:

Most of the Israeli population are military reservists. Bye some of the justification that Israel uses, that makes most of the Israeli population targets

Isn't there a draft or mandatory service for Israeli citizens?

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May 20, 2006

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It's done,

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1404138095654670338?s=20

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May 20, 2006

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Does anyone know if he's announced that he's accepted the results and will be stepping down?

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May 20, 2006

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:lol:

Bibi says the whole thing is a sham and he's not going to the swearing in of the new government.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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-Blackadder- posted:

So anyone want to do a quick informal history lesson on why this guy was hated so much by both sides that they formed some kind of Voltron of groups that were apparently the least likely to cooperate in history, in order to get rid of him?

I am not well versed on Israeli politics and this is just my 2 cents but from my understanding over the last few months is that Netanyahu tried to be like every other autocrat. He wanted all the power to himself even at the expense of his own party and allies.

They finally have had enough.

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May 20, 2006

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The NY Times and Washington Post had some photo of damage caused by incendiary balloons and burned what appear to be acres of wheat or some other kind of crop.

I'm not a general or have any real military experience yet these can't possibly be that difficult to detect and shoot down. And there's no way in hell Israeli's response was proportionate.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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AtomikKrab posted:

Balloons are actually incredibly difficult to stop. Very small target that is moving erratically and can be difficult to spot in the sky. Next to no metal so radar is not useful either.

Is there no type of radar that would detect this kind of stuff? I guess it does work but that's kind of super embarrassing for one the world best and most technologically advanced armies.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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Seriously brutal. Big event. Here's a decent summary but not much is known at this time. Not sure why the embedded twitter link isn't working -

https://x.com/KimGhattas/status/1710553669538550060?s=20

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 10:18 on Oct 7, 2023

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

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What the hell is the goal exactly? There's no way they'll actually beat the IDF?

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May 20, 2006

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Main Paineframe posted:

I suspect the goal is to make a big show of shoving their thumbs in Israel's eye to placate the major protests that have been raging in the Gaza Strip in the last few weeks (as well as Israel bombing Gaza in retaliation for protests near the border fence). Economic conditions in Gaza are extremely bad, and economic shifts have disrupted some of the few arrangements Hamas had managed to put together, leading to Hamas being unable to pay Gaza's civil service workers, and the border crossings were only just starting to reopen after being closed for weeks. There were reportedly deescalation talks going on, but Hamas was demanding real concessions while Israel was (as usual) perfectly fine with the status quo.

This is a massive embarrassment for the IDF, though. Things have been escalating on the border for some time, and Israeli authorities have been claiming in recent weeks that they've been getting intelligence warnings of attack and heavily fortifying the border in response.

This makes much more sense over the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations. The situation on the ground changed and that really got people upset opposed to governments doing diplomacy. Is anyone able to tell me what a occupation would look like and why those didn't work out in the past?

ummel posted:

Does anyone have a decent twitter list for coverage? The twitter trends are all filled with blue checked troll farms with Indian flags calling for even more genocide.

Same here. I get this is super crazy messed up but goddamn so many accounts I follow are losing it. Every discussion is something about "Don't you know their occupied!?!?" or just terrible videos of killings. I know little of Middle East history and I am desperately looking for something more level headed. I wonder where Isreali democracy reforms head from here...

Gucci Loafers fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Oct 7, 2023

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May 20, 2006

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Main Paineframe posted:

There won't be an occupation. It'll probably just be collective punishment: the IDF will roll in, start blowing up civilian infrastructure until it seems like angry voters' bloodlust has been somewhat sated, and then pull out and announce that Gazans need to overthrow Hamas if they want any kind of relief supplies to be allowed through the border crossings anytime soon. That's how these always go.

Israel used to have a full-on occupation of the Gaza Strip, complete with settlers moving in, same as the West Bank. But as the peace process ground to a halt and deals like the Oslo Accords amounted to nothing, a major insurgency developed, with soldiers and settlers being subject to constant attacks. The IDF proved incapable of stopping the insurgency.

The insurgency was especially bad in Gaza, and Israeli religious-nationalists didn't want Gaza as badly as they wanted the West Bank, so in 2005, Israel just pulled out of Gaza altogether. They evacuated all the settlers, demolished all the military infrastructure, and pulled out of Gaza entirely.

Hamas, which played a large role in building that insurgency, was able to take credit for driving Israel out of Gaza (a much larger concession than anything Fatah had managed), and rode that to victory in elections. In retaliation, a pissed-off Israel sealed off Gaza's border entirely (with help from Egypt).

Since then, Israel's main interactions with Gaza have been using their control of the border crossings for carrot-and-stick negotiating tactics, limiting the flow of supplies and commerce across the border based on their current mood toward Gaza. If Israel gets mad enough at Gaza, they go in and blow a bunch of poo poo up, then pull out and refuse to allow humanitarian aid through the border crossings until Hamas makes some kind of concession. This is just going to be a particularly brutal round of that same old routine (it happens every 2-3 years).

Good summary. While I understand there been a pattern of behavior I would be surprised if just the same thing occurred. This is a fundamental different situation given something like this hasn't happen in over a half century.

Main Paineframe posted:

It's not a possibility because Israel won't accept it. But as long as Israel is adamant about demanding that Palestinians make massive concessions in return for minimal concessions from Israel, the "peace process" is nothing more than a farce. Which is fine with Israel, since all it really wants is to go through the motions to keep the international community off their back while they transfer their own population into as much of the West Bank as possible.

Why won't Israel accept it? And if you were an Israeli citizen I can't imagine being attracted to a home near the West Bank or Gaza Strip given the current circumstances. Even in the future.

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May 20, 2006

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Karatela posted:

Because why would Israel accept that, when it involves giving up colonized land, when instead it can keep on keeping on ratcheting down and sometimes blowing up a lot of stuff and get worldwide support as it has for most of a century?

Form current events, it seems that continually ratcheting down is not a strategy that works especially in the long term.

Miftan posted:

Houses near Gaza or near (or in) the west bank are much much cheaper than anywhere else, and Israel has a cost of living and housing price crisis just like most places. Tel Aviv and Jerusalem have absolutely wild house prices and rent.

So yeah, reasonable people wouldn't live there, but there are both hardcore believers and people who just need a place to live within driving distance of big cities (because again, Israel is tiny)

Good point. It's freaking wild how in 2023 the leading crisis isn't a world war, pandemic or AI but that rent is still way too drat high.

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May 20, 2006

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AFancyQuestionMark posted:

Over 300 dead and over 100 taken as hostages?

That. And now you live in in an environment of constant fear. This is a huge failure by the Israeli government to protect it's own citizens. It's a fundamental failure of current policy and I have a hard time seeing that continue.

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May 20, 2006

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Main Paineframe posted:

The reason the settlements got built and expanded so much in the first place is because there's significant political support for them. Spreading those illegal settlements into the West Bank was an intentional government policy.

Even if the government changes its stance, roughly 700,000 people (10% of Israel's Jewish population) lives in the settlements, absolutely none of whom want to be forced out. On top of that, there's a significant political lobby that believes in the annexation of the entire West Bank for religious or nationalist reasons. Those two factors combined means that dismantling settlements en masse carries a political cost no Israeli politician wants to face if they can help it. To make it even worse, the combination of those two factors have led to the growth of radical extremist settlers movements who commit terrorism to "punish" both Palestinians and the Israeli government for any action that is seen as being insufficiently pro-settlements.

To put things into perspective here, when Israel evacuated the Gaza settlements, there were just 6,000 Israeli Jews living in those settlements. Few cooperated willingly, and most of them had to be ordered to leave by armed soldiers. At several settlements, the settlers barricaded themselves inside, rioted, or even shot at IDF troops; the soldiers ended up having to use riot gear to force their way into buildings and subdue some of the settlers by force to remove them. Meanwhile, back in Israel proper, tens of thousands of people attended protests against the disengagement, while the media ran lots of pictures of crying families being dragged from their homes by soldiers. It's not hard to see why even the few anti-settlement politicians wouldn't be eager to repeat something like that with several hundred thousand people.

This makes so much more sense. Thanks for the quick history lesson.

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May 20, 2006

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Saying that "Israel does it too!" has to be one of the worst defenses. There's no excuse for anyone purposely or recklessly targeting civilians in any kind of armed conflict. It literally does not matter who does it, who shot first, or whatever else.

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May 20, 2006

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dadrips posted:

If Israel's duty is to protect its citizens, why does it permit the construction of habitations in areas where it knows (or should know) full well any civilian residents will be at severe risk of attack? Why does it put its own people in harm's way so readily and easily, instead of saying "hmm, maybe not a great idea to build houses next to the place we've locked up a bunch of angry Palestineans for 50+ years"?

The short version, is because they - the Netanyahu and his far-right government are idiots. I can't speak well of other governments either.

Zoeb posted:

I would say that every military or fighting force of every kind from the modern era to antiquity regularly does this when they are in combat. One of the worst features of humanity is that we think that violence is fun. We think it is fun because we need to do violence sometimes against people who threaten and hurt us. Unfortunately it does not stop being fun when the persons receiving the violence no longer deserve that violence. Hamas should not kill random people or abduct random people. They should not kill kids and old ladies. They should not vent decades of anger on civilian populations.

But we're getting away from the root causes aren't we? We're getting pulled into a discussion of tactics, holding victims of genocide to a perfect victim standard. We are getting away from why these people were nearby in the first place. We are getting away from what the conflict is even about in the first place or how it was Israel that made almost every Israeli a member of the IDF by law.

The worst people in the world, who are the root of this conflict, who set these people up: their necks are not on the line, at all. They are the ones who settled people in these areas. They are the ones giving the orders, spreading propaganda that dehumanized and demonized Palestinians for decades.

They have been numerous armed conflicts in the the modern area (post WW2) and while you do see awful things occurring it's quite clear some use these tactics much more than others so much at times it's not grey but black and white. I'm not sure of your point? Sure, the conflict hasn't occurred in a vacuum. Everyone here already knows that.

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May 20, 2006

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hadji murad posted:

Every time someone pops up with the attacks on civilians need to stop I realize how badly educated people are on the apartheid system that attacks and degrades civilians daily which has gone on for decade.

What are you even trying to say? And the occupation has gone on much further than a decade.

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May 20, 2006

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This is discussion is providing an excellent example of the whole problem and why violence begets more violence. Israel does something horrific but to have that same cruelty follow-up by others is also wrong. Did anyone parents here ever teach them two wrongs don't make it right?

The whole situation really sucks and I don't see it getting any better.

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May 20, 2006

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Regarde Aduck posted:

Indefensible certainly. An inevitable consequence of material reality? Also yes. The boiled frogs have guns and broke out, it was never going to clean.

There have been plenty of minorities oppressed through out human history. Some of them did not stoop to the level of murdering even the dumbest and naive ravers.

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May 20, 2006

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Neurolimal posted:

Mariupol was an actual battle, though. Two armies shooting at each other. This is a fleet of jets prowling across a defenseless city looking for errant hospitals or schools that haven't been bombed yet. You expect this scenery in the middle of an intense conflict, not the chair force eyeballing which group of citizens should eat a bomb.

The Russian army has been under explicit orders to literally raze the entire city. It doesn't take much to see while the situation in Gaza is bad it is not at all comparable to something like Mariupol or Aleppo.

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May 20, 2006

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Irony Be My Shield posted:

Asking 'what else could Hamas have done' is insane to me because they demonstrated they could do a whole bunch of other things last weekend! They decisively breached containment, overran some IDF positions and were able to capture senior IDF officers. If they had done that without also committing some of the worst atrocities against civilians of the 21st century that would've put Israel in a very difficult situation - Bibi would still have been humiliated by a catastrophic failure, and his government would have to negotiate for the release of the prisoners. But as-is all domestic and international opposition to razing Gaza to the ground has evaporated, and Hamas will be wiped out along with any civilians who are unable to flee (currently this is looking to be 'all of them').

Same. They could have easily have chosen to pick military targets but instead choose civilians at rave? History is full of oppressed minorities and many of them got their freedom without resorting to Columbine-esq. shootings.

FlapYoJacks posted:

"some of the worst atrocities against civilians of the 21st century" is a huge stretch considering what Israel has repeatedly done, and is currently doing RIGHT NOW to Palestinians during the 21st century.

True but why does this matter? The situation could be even be worse, much worse yet I cannot think of any reason why it would be morally justified to kidnap an old Israeli grandma or murder even the dumbest raver.

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May 20, 2006

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kolby posted:

Chalking up rapes and murders to "lack of discipline" seems odd to me.

Footage of the attacks including those against civilian is plastered all of their social media and often celebrated or at a minimum endorsed.

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May 20, 2006

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BUUNNI posted:

The IDF is doing way worse things to larger numbers of people in the past and currently so if your concern is innocent victims then I’m not sure the handwringing about Hamas is going to lead to less blood being spilled.

Why not? Are they not responsible somehow? How on earth is pointing out that Hamas explicitly targeted some of the most innocent and least responsible people for the whole conflict with maximum violence then only to share it on their social media as some sort of victory?

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May 20, 2006

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nogoodpeople posted:


Violence begets violence.

:words:

Good post. I don't get why it's so hard to understand that it's possible for both Israel and the West bare responsibility for the conflict and at the same time Hamas is still responsible for targeting innocent civilians that essentially have nothing to with it at all.

nogoodpeople posted:

Israel is amassing 100,000 troops on the Border of Gaza. They will enter Gaza and raze it to the ground. They will permanently annex the region.

I fully believe Israel is going to destroy Hamas. They're going to invade Gaza and won't stop until their are gone. The next year is going to be ugly. :ohdear:

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May 20, 2006

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Mischievous Mink posted:

It's just weird to keep giving it the same weight as a much larger scale, even more indiscriminate brutality going on. Israel is targeting some of the most innocent and least responsible people for the whole conflict with maximum violence and parading it on social media while hollering for victory over their enemies as well. And they are much better at it than Hamas is. While being celebrated by our own elected governments! Palestinians don't even have the capacity to elect an alternative to Hamas, as they have had the right to elections taken away from them. And now over a million children are being collectively punished, bombed to rubble while being called terrorists and having their deaths cheered on.

Who says I am giving this incident anymore importance over any other horrific thing that happens in war? The point here it doesn't matter what Israel does or does do but what Hamas did because simply the idea they're compelled to go on mass shooting of dumb twenty-something popping molly at a rave or abducting Jacob's Grandmother at her Kibbutz is absolutely loving psychotic.


Yes, I've seen the videos of Gaza strip being bombed too.

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May 20, 2006

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Mischievous Mink posted:

Israel actually has a ton to do with Hamas and what they are like in 2023.

They do, I mentioned that earlier. The United States is also responsible them getting control of the Palestinians government granted it was largely Bush Jr. and the GOPs doing.

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May 20, 2006

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TheDisreputableDog posted:

I can’t believe there are Americans here arguing there’s a moral distinction between settlers and civilians when it comes to being murdered.

I can't believe it's being argued at all either. The point doesn't have anything to do with the past but a group of people absolutely still had agency over their decision to go on a shooting spree despite their circumstances.

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May 20, 2006

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Main Paineframe posted:

Yeah, what kind of psychos would go through a residential area kicking down doors and shooting anyone inside?

:words:

I really don't want to sound flippant here, but I feel like you might be coming at this from a place of ignorance, because atrocities are all over the news right now and getting you stirred up, but you don't have enough knowledge about the conflict in general to be able to really put those atrocities in context alongside all the atrocities that don't make the front pages of Western papers.

SourKraut posted:

Cutting off power to Gaza, ceasing deliveries of what small flow of potable water can be reliably depended on, preventing food and fuel from entering, I would say that all of these are much larger "psychotic issues" as it relates to impacts on humans and suffering, but you don't seem to be applying quite the same focus as the rave or grandmother hostage-taking.


Okay, these are obviously horrific things but why would I bring up past Israeli or Western failings or atrocities during a discussion regarding peaceful ravers being rape, murdered and kidnapped? I don't see how sharing more awful details regarding a largely one-sided conflict changes anything regarding the morality of innocent people being slaughtered? :confused:

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May 20, 2006

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Chillmatic posted:

Can someone help me understand the drive to disprove specific details of certain atrocities while at the same time saying there is no moral difference between a beheaded victim vs. one buried in rubble?

If they’re at the same level of inhumanity, then what difference does it make?

Intent.

If you are a military leader, strike a military target but end up killing civilians unintentionally that makes you at the least possibly a lovely general. Beheading on the other hand, you are clearly trying to murder. There is no way that is remotely any kind of accident. It also hits the human psyche of being an especially cruel way to die.

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May 20, 2006

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OctaMurk posted:

And Israel is striking only military targets? Really this is more like a carpet bombing campaign, take a look at the destroyed neighborhoods of Gaza and tell me any general reasonably thought those apartment buildings were all legitimate military targets.

No, I don't believe so.

OctaMurk posted:

The death in Gaza is not accidental. And when you cut off food, water and electricity to a blockaded area then it cant be considered an accident if any civilians starve or thirst to death.

I never said or even implied that it was accidental? Why are you even bringing this up?

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