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Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000
Does it count as accelerationism if I think Trump taking the GOP nom is good for America long term, as well as (probably) good for the GOP?

Trump represents that part of the electorate that any government/society basically has to totally ignore or marginalize in order to function, that the GOP has been playing for votes since pretty much the Civil Rights Act of 1964. I can think of no better way to relegate these people back to the edges of society where they belong, than to have a referendum, in the form of a Presidential election, on what they represent and who they are as people, and have the result of that referendum be that they get utterly loving annihilated in the general.

That said, I'm actually not so sure that they would be annihilated in the general, but without putting up the stakes, it isn't a referendum.

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Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000
I'm not sure what effect it would have on his core supporters other than it would alienate them from the GOP enough that they wouldn't be a reliable source of votes for them anymore. And if the GOP establishment has any sense, or survival instinct, they'll not try to draw water from that well for another 25 years.

It's basically the endgame of the Southern Strategy and the end of the Nixon era, if we're lucky.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

McDowell posted:

Marginalizing people is never helpful. Instead we should embrace them and change them.
Trump supporters are mostly just older people who were around when there was more lead in paint and in gasoline and stuff. And I guess maybe some of their kids. I know you're not being serious, but any reasonable person should have no problem putting these people in a corner and just pretending like they don't exist, forever. And for their part they're used to not being taken seriously by anybody in their day-to-day life, so it's not as cruel as it sounds at first, either.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

computer parts posted:

Has anyone actually done a demographic profile of Trump supporters? I know on the other side the age gap has been shown for Bernie.
http://bfy.tw/3KiA

quote:

In terms of demographics, Trump’s supporters are a bit older, less educated and earn less than the average Republican. Slightly over half are women. About half are between 45 and 64 years of age, with another 34 percent over 65 years old and less than 2 percent younger than 30.
Like I said, they're the lead paint demographic.

e: lol

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

McDowell posted:

Nah just marginalizing them feeds their persecution complex. They need to understand that they are stupid and juvenile and should sit down and shut up.
They're never going to "understand" that the way you want them to. They aren't capable of it. But they can be marginalized to the point that they give up on politics and go back to whatever the gently caress it is they were doing before the GOP decided to marshal them as a force to win elections with. Like, trying to gently caress their cousins or whatever, I dunno.

For the rest of us, the effect is pretty much the same, and for them, they mostly won't know the difference. Everybody wins.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

ocrumsprug posted:

If Trump wins the nomination there are too many Red Team voters for any idenitifiable group inside the team to meanfully realize they are outside the mainstream. Even an embarrassing loss will see 40% of the population voting for him which seems pretty validated to me.
Nah. 40% is Reagan-Mondale stuff. It's a blowout. They'll be thinking of that map filled with blue states for the rest of their lives, before they head to a poll on Election Day. Or rather before they think about heading to a poll and then find a better use for their time (cf cousins, above). And the fact that they will lose to Hillary loving Clinton will magnify that 100-fold. It's not enough to defeat the Republicans, we need to demoralize their base such that the party has to find a new one, and heal itself. It's no good to have one party in the US even remotely capable of governing.

Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000

ocrumsprug posted:

It is a blow out while 40% of the country agrees with them instead of 51%. Honestly I am not seeing how that will lead to a round of soul searching and coming to the conclusion that they are on the fringe of American society.

The only people doing anything resembling introspection will be traditional mainstream Republicans, and they aren't really the problem.
For like the third or fourth time: the point isn't that they change their minds, it's that they stop going to polls.

And 40% of the popular vote is not the same thing as 40% of the population.

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Kilroy
Oct 1, 2000
If they get their man in the general and he loses it's going to radicalize them even more, and that's the whole point. They're already expressing disillusionment with the GOP for not being enough purestrain movement conservatism for them, cf Paul Ryan and the budget deal. If they lose in 2016 they will absolutely pin it on their candidate and their party failing conservatism, rather than the other way around. That's what they always do. The more they see the Republican party as failing conservatism, the better, since it means they won't bother to vote for the GOP or anybody else. We don't need them to see the light or whatever, we need them to find it hard to get representation in government.

You seem to be conflating the GOP collectively doing the soul searching and changing, with individual GOP voters doing the soul searching. They are not the same thing.

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