Accelerationism [Glugglugglug]

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Accelerationism [Glugglugglug]

ComradeCosmobot: Dec 4, 2004; USPOL July

SedanChair posted:

There's a hard ceiling to Trump's poll numbers.

*breathes into paper bag* there's a hard ceiling to Trump's poll numbers

looooool

Joementum posted:

@daveweigel: When focus group began, only 10 people said they were 90% or 100% set on backing [Trump]. After an hour of discussing his gaffes, it's 16.

Joementum posted:

@daveweigel: Two voters who came into the focus group having cooled on Trump now say they're more supportive, after 2.5 hours of negative arguments

The more you try to convince people Trump is a horrible human being who should not be allowed to ever become president, the more people who initially agreed with you will begin to love him and become convinced he should

ＤＥＨＵＭＡＮＩＺＥＹＯＵＲＳＥＬＦＡＮＤＦＡＣＥＴＯＴＲＵＭＰＳＨＥＤ :unsmigghh:

# ¿ Dec 10, 2015 09:21

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# ¿ May 8, 2024 21:54

ComradeCosmobot: Dec 4, 2004; USPOL July

Berk Berkly posted:

Isn't old/retired/seniors and political junkies, like, the people who actually vote? Like 75% of the population doesn't vote at all, so basically appealing to 'crazy old people and crazy people in general' is basically 'appealing to people who actually vote'?

Also most recent elections have been more about turning out the base rather than convincing an increasingly small "independent" center. Given how well Trump energizes the base (and Hillary doesn't appear to), well... Let's just say I'm certain you'll be sleeping well tonight.

# ¿ Dec 10, 2015 09:52

ComradeCosmobot: Dec 4, 2004; USPOL July

computer parts posted:

Just because you repeat something a lot doesn't make it true.

Of course. So here are some articles for you:

Right after 2012, the Daily Beast's Michael Medved argued your side: that it was Obama succeeding at keeping "independents" at home instead of voting Romney. But is this really true in light of suggestions that the Republican independent in 2014 viewed the party as too moderate?
If you disagree that it was right-wing Independents, there's always RedState's argument that Romney's pandering to the Independent and lack of evangelical outreach arguably HURT his relationship with the base causing him to lose even when Obama lost 7m votes.
Of course Pew's own polling right after the election fell more in line with the idea that Obama actually did marshal his base in a way Romney presumably did not.
In contrast, you may be more correct about 2008. There, Pew's assessment was that it was not a base election.
But even ignoring that fact, a 2009 analysis of the elections between 1972 and 2004 found that only one election, 1976, was decided on the back of swing votes. All other elections were decided by individuals who had already made up their mind before the election cycle began (of course, to be fair, this does not necessarily make those people the base). Of people who are undecided during the campaign, only one election was decided since 1952: the extremely tight race of 1960.

Now what about my claims that Trump appeals to the base and Hillary does not? Well the former should hopefully be self-evident from all the focus that's been given to Trump's strangely solid base of support, so I'm instead going to focus more on Hillary's lack thereof:

Aside from the Washington Post taking note of Hillary's outreach to the left to stave off a left-wing insurgent before Bernie even declared...
Some have recently noted her disinterest in taking part in the recent MoveOn.org event and reaching out to the base
A Gallup poll does suggest that Hillary may be able to take the base for granted (when compared to Sanders, except that she has more trouble with the youth than Sanders does.
There are, of course, other concerning signs that Hillary may not enjoy the trust of the base when it comes to the general, due to increasing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party as a whole, including the fact that BLM refuses to endorse any candidate and United We Dream's Juan Carlos Ramos has expressed skepticism over her various promises.. Whether either indicates any actual disinterest in Hillary in the general remains to be seen of course. Both might be more indicative of the aforementioned lack of strength and ability to turn out the youth vote, however.

# ¿ Dec 12, 2015 05:49

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