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Squalid posted:I'm intrigued, can you give a specific example? What industry has this happened in? The oil cartel case.
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Jan 26, 2016 18:30
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RuanGacho posted:Has there been any study on what happens to the petrol states if say, the price remains low enough for long enough or we pass peak oil consumption and they can never again feed their lifestyles on highly subsidised internal consumption? Most oil states will be fine, SA though has a not-insignificant chance of actually imploding as a state because of the weakness of its government and ethnic tensions
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Jan 26, 2016 18:47
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icantfindaname posted:Most oil states will be fine, SA though has a not-insignificant chance of actually imploding as a state because of the weakness of its government and ethnic tensions
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Jan 26, 2016 18:52
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Haha I just was told that there is no bonus this year (expected) and my stock was going to be issued at twenty times current market value. I guess I can go buy lunch when it finally vests.
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Jan 26, 2016 18:58
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Zeroisanumber posted:US companies would probably just laugh. No one is going to trust a pack of Oil Sheikhs, the Iranians, and Vlad loving Putin to hold to a deal. Yet Obama trusts them to hold to their word on nuclear weapons! RuanGacho posted:Has there been any study on what happens to the petrol states if say, the price remains low enough for long enough or we pass peak oil consumption and they can never again feed their lifestyles on highly subsidised internal consumption? Yes, I believe its called the history of Somalia.
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Jan 30, 2016 21:02
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Another thing to consider in this thread: the oil of the Great Lakes. As cheap as Saudi oil to extract, and more of it than the Sauds have proven. So loving much oil in Uganda, DRC, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, its so loving rediculous.
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Jan 30, 2016 21:10
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icantfindaname posted:Most oil states will be fine, SA though has a not-insignificant chance of actually imploding as a state because of the weakness of its government and ethnic tensions And you know we'll be miltarily all up in that craziness to make sure all the royals we like get out safely, then try to install some pro-western democracy like Iraq
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Jan 30, 2016 21:17
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The Economist has made a cool little doodad showing how the profitability of different countries' reserves depend on the oil price: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/01/daily-chart-6?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/adjusting_the_taps_on_oil_price It's quite impressive how thoroughly hosed everyone who isn't Saudi/Iran/Iraq/Kuwait/the UAE is when the price is <$40.
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Jan 31, 2016 19:22
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LemonDrizzle posted:The Economist has made a cool little doodad showing how the profitability of different countries' reserves depend on the oil price: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/01/daily-chart-6?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/adjusting_the_taps_on_oil_price The thing to keep in mind is that only in free-market economies with democratic institutions will unviable capacity be allowed to be taken off the market. This is why free and democratic institutions which are free and fair for whomever is a stakeholder are important: it allows your nation to lay off millions without facing an insurgency or civil war.
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Feb 1, 2016 00:55
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My Imaginary GF posted:The thing to keep in mind is that only in free-market economies with democratic institutions will unviable capacity be allowed to be taken off the market. Well it might not have been a 'civil war' but Weimar Germany seems to disprove your theory
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Feb 1, 2016 14:42
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MikeCrotch posted:Well it might not have been a 'civil war' but Weimar Germany seems to disprove your theory Weimar Germany, a historical state with a reputation for stability and a good ending.
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Feb 1, 2016 16:28
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And there goes the last 2 weeks of gains. Over 6% drop so far today, Brent crude is down to $30.44 at moment.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:33
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http://www.bidnessetc.com/63092-2016-more-bankruptcies-and-capital-expenditure-cuts-to-follow/ posted:Oil Sector Bankruptcies http://uk.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-and-debt-2016-2?r=US&IR=T posted:A recent report out from Jaime Caruana at the Bank for International Settlements looked at the relationship between debt and oil companies, finding that oil and gas company bonds outstanding rose from $455 billion in 2006 to $1.4 trillion in 2014 while syndicated loans to the sector increased from $600 billion to $1.6 trillion over the same period. Meanwhile in  -land:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/world-s-largest-energy-trader-sees-a-decade-of-low-oil-prices quote:Oil prices will stay low for as long as 10 years- Abort abort abort 
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Feb 9, 2016 22:14
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Pimpmust posted:Meanwhile in How is that bad news unless you are a shale producer or a oil producing country? Long term low-ish oil price seems like great news. It used to be common knowledge that the world economy would end if oil ever hit $100 a barrel. Now we are upset oil is cheap?
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Feb 10, 2016 11:32
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NihilismNow posted:How is that bad news unless you are a shale producer or a oil producing country? Long term low-ish oil price seems like great news. People calling something the new normal or a fundamental shift away from everything that was previously known is all too often the first sign that things are about to go right back to normal. I assume that's the joke.
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Feb 10, 2016 14:24
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So when can we expect to see the effects of the lifting of sanctions on Iran? Or has part of the plunge so far been in anticipation of that? I can't find any sources suggesting that they're ramping up production though.
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Feb 10, 2016 14:32
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How can I get in the business of predicting oil prices? It seems everyone's predictions of anything 2+ years down the line is always incorrect.
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Feb 10, 2016 14:57
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NihilismNow posted:How is that bad news unless you are a shale producer or a oil producing country? Long term low-ish oil price seems like great news. If you are in a business that is supported directly by the oil industry - and with the kind of money they've been pulling in over the last ten years, that is a whole lot of businesses - then the low oil prices and their persistence starts looking very scary The southwest, midwest and plains states are incredibly dependant on energy revenues and the beating they are taking right now from the tanked oil prices... I started at the company I work at only 9 months ago, our stock prices have dropped from 40 dollars a share to 7 dollars a share and after our Q4 earnings report is missing even the worst case predictions I wouldn't be surprised to see us trading below 4 dollars a share by the end of the week. Low oil prices are going to put a hell of a lot of people out of work.
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Feb 10, 2016 15:09
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I'm that guy, I work in a company connected to the oil and gas industry and yeah the mood in the industry is bad.
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Feb 10, 2016 15:30
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Anubis posted:People calling something the new normal or a fundamental shift away from everything that was previously known is all too often the first sign that things are about to go right back to normal. I assume that's the joke. Yes, this. These dudes making 10 year predictions around a stable oil prices are either scamming someone or are really dense, either way not worth listening to. This should help you figure out where prices and production is going:  Note the massive investment needed (a lot more dollars per barrel gained than before, and accelerating upwards) for a rather small uptick of mainly condensate/bitumen related oil production during the last ten years since 2005, and then look at the crashing investment. Meanwhile the IEA are pulling out predictions like these:  The IEA WEIO 2014 p 51: “Annual investment in upstream oil and gas rises in the New Policies Scenario by one-quarter to more than $850 billion by 2035, with gas accounting for most of the increase. More than 80% of the cumulative $17.5 trillion in upstream oil and gas spending is required to compensate for decline at existing oil and gas fields. A further $5 trillion is required for oil and gas transportation and oil refining.” “Gradual depletion of the most accessible reserves forces companies to move to develop more challenging fields; although offset in part by technology learning, this puts pressure on upstream costs and underpins an oil price that rises to reach $128/barrel in real terms by 2035.” All that investment to keep production slightly creeping upwards, there's one more kink though:  Note "Yet-to-be" areas. That's oil we haven't found or developed yet, and with very little investment going to exploration (and we've long since gone past the point where we were finding more oil resources than we were using up already) it's not looking like those will be found or developed, unless prices are 100+. The most recent 2015 IEA outlook has a 4% decline in existing (conventional) fields provided there are enough investments. IEA’s 2013 outlook showed a whole 8% average decline pa in existing fields without investments. It's not super complicated math, yet we have these guys coming out and flagging ~50 dollar oil for a decade? Do they know something about a civil war and collapse of China/India/Europe/The USA that we don't? 
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Feb 10, 2016 17:05
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People predicting stables prices for anything are basically crazy, because it is obviously, as we're seeing now, going to be dependent on the world economy and demand &tc. I don't think it'll tick up to normal for a couple of years, but eventually that surplus will deplete again and we'll be back to "oh gently caress we need to transition from oil because it's $100" again.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:43
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Yeah, I wish we could dig up the Peak Oil thread dating a number of years back
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Feb 10, 2016 22:46
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ganglysumbia posted:How can I get in the business of predicting oil prices? It seems everyone's predictions of anything 2+ years down the line is always incorrect. "Hmm, yes, our forecast for the next few years is always that the oil price is going to continue to do whatever it happens to be doing at the moment. Would you like to subscribe to our really useful website? It's $8k annually per employee, or $250k for your organisation." The sort of thing you hear from actual consultancy firms that actual oil companies rate and give money to.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:53
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Pimpmust posted:... I'm really not knowledgeable about this stuff, but doesn't a lot of it hinge on what your forecast for demand is? Oil consumption (not natural gas, just oil) has been flat in the US / North America for going on ~15 years now and has been declining in Europe. Since 2000, globral oil consumption has increased only 15-20%, and like half of that has come from China. The lions share of the remaining increase is somewhat equally split between India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Brazil. On a 10 year+ timeframe, for China, lets say we have some reasons to be pessimistic that it will be able to keep up its accustomed rate of growth. Brazil isn't doing so great, seems perpetually locked in a middle income trap, and doesn't account for that much total oil consumption anyway. Russia and Saudi Arabia are headed straight for the shitter no matter how you look at it, and, again, will account for only a small portion of global consumption even if their consumption continues to grow. So unless you imagine India uplifting a shitzillion people out of absolute poverty in the next 10 years, or some other miracle in the developing economies, it seems at least plausible that even very modestly increasing production will be able to more than keep up with global demand. And by an admittedly simplistic argument, that makes it at least plausible that prices may remain low unless supply is restricted. Since states like Saudi Arabia and Russia basically need to pump oil as fast as they can get it, regardless of the market price, just to keep their states from collapsing, I'm not sure I see that happening. And if it does happen, at this point even a modest supply restriction by e.g. Saudi Arabia would open a floodgate of blueballed North American oil from producers desperate to sell at even just moderately higher prices. Bearing in mind that both the current pants-making GBS threads drop in price (along with large increases in price over the last 10 years) have been driven by relatively modest changes in supply or demand, it seams reasonable that we may stay sufficiently in oversupply for the next 10 years to prices to stay low. Am I missing something huge here?
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Feb 10, 2016 23:44
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how is that 5 - 10 year forecast going to be affected by greater development and implementation of 'green' tech?
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Feb 11, 2016 01:18
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I doubt there's going to be much displacement of fossil fuels by new energy technologies in the short term, electric cars are still too expensive for a lot of the population even in rich countries and you're not going to see electric passenger jets or large-scale use of electric freight trucks for a while
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Feb 11, 2016 01:54
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NihilismNow posted:How is that bad news unless you are a shale producer or a oil producing country? Long term low-ish oil price seems like great news. It's pretty bad if you care about the environment at all. High oil prices, or even rapid unstable price fluctuations incentivize research and investment into alternative sources of energy. A long, steady period of low oil prices like we had before the 70's would guarantee that we continue to burn it in massive quantities into the foreseeable future.
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Feb 11, 2016 02:22
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VirtualStranger posted:It's pretty bad if you care about the environment at all. High oil prices, or even rapid unstable price fluctuations incentivize research and investment into alternative sources of energy. The effects of global warming are already bad enough that most people (well, more people) are on board with the need to research into renewable fuels without catastrophic oil prices.
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Feb 11, 2016 04:06
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Flavahbeast posted:I doubt there's going to be much displacement of fossil fuels by new energy technologies in the short term, electric cars are still too expensive for a lot of the population even in rich countries and you're not going to see electric passenger jets or large-scale use of electric freight trucks for a while There is, the ball's already rolling on that one. Of course that depends on your definition of "short term", but companies are already incentivized to market fuel efficiency and electric cars because that's what customers have been conditioned to want. Just in general also, the technology that would make electric cars cheap (i.e., cheap dense batteries) have other uses that are being pursued anyway.
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Feb 11, 2016 04:56
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I'm talkin serious displacement within that 5-10 year period, I think it'll happen eventually but not in that timeframe
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Feb 11, 2016 05:19
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The problem with "serious displacement" is that very cheap or even moderately cheap gas prices will slow what progress has been made. Electric cars will happen but it very well may take decades for them to see their full effect on prices. Also, there are non-first world countries where penetration is going to happen even slower, countries that may if anything see even greater oil use in the years to come. Anyway, the ultimate issue with cratering oil prices isn't purely economic, it is geopolitical and it is quite obvious that that the Saudi have purposely launched a price war (when normally you would expect them to moderately cut back production). This has caused Russia and Iran not to mention other states that still can afford to produce, to keep production up as much as they can just to try and stay afloat (even if they ultimately just sit on the oil). To be sure, it is fair to expect prices to go down but the current trend is ultimately being decided by governments and will continue or end with their decisions. You can look at many different trends, but the ones that are important are probably the current status of the Syrian/Yemen civil wars, internal politics of the Saudi royal family and the tenor of Russo-Saudi relations. Obviously, a slowdown in China and generally dismal economic prospects world wide are going to effect price at some level, but in reality demand hasn't change that much but what has changed is that certain producers are way over producing for political reasons (valid or not, is up to your point of view). In that sense, electric cars will some have an significant effect but it isn't going to anything versus the raw power of major gulf producers to brute force prices if they feel it is necessary. (More or less, the same event in 1986/1987, very likely helped promote the collapse of the Soviet Union.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Feb 11, 2016 |
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Feb 11, 2016 05:31
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Flavahbeast posted:I'm talkin serious displacement within that 5-10 year period, I think it'll happen eventually but not in that timeframe That wouldn't happen even with $4 gas. That's about the timeframe to go from "technology is ready" to "rolling out of the assembly line", and the technology is far from ready right now.
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Feb 11, 2016 05:33
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The various biofuels for example serve as a substitute to oil in many ways (to the point of being *counted as equivalent to oil* in official statics over production figures) and their price is set relative to oil, as their total production costs are often on the high side they too are feeling the pinch now. Electrics are different, but also high cost and can't compete on price when oil prices are this low. So no, I don't think displacement will be happening during <10 years to keep oil prices at $50. They can serve to rein in very high oil prices, but that too takes time, it's not easy to ramp up production quickly on either biofuels or electric cars so oil price spikes can still happen (see 2007/2008). You are also missing the point I made about depletion rates and capex. To keep a whopping 1-2 million barrels in oversupply for 10 years you'll need a lot more capex than is currently happening.
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Feb 11, 2016 07:44
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Crude oil below 27 dollars a barrel. How low can it go?
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Feb 11, 2016 15:17
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Flavahbeast posted:and you're not going to see electric passenger jets or large-scale use of electric freight trucks for a while Or maybe never in the case of airplanes, if there is no groundbreaking development in battery technology to improve their energy density. Energy density of the powering source is way more important for airplanes than it is for cars.
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Feb 11, 2016 15:21
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shrike82 posted:Yeah, I wish we could dig up the Peak Oil thread dating a number of years back http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3414736&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 I remember this one because I got dogpiled and banned for saying that there wasn't a peak oil crisis.
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Feb 11, 2016 19:57
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Baron Porkface posted:http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3414736&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 Can you post a quote or two for those who don't have archives?
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Feb 11, 2016 22:42
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OhFunny posted:Crude oil below 27 dollars a barrel. Some analysts were bandying around $15/bbl as the possible low, but commodity analysts have been wrong so often that that number is probably only a little better than a wild rear end guess.
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Feb 11, 2016 23:05
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Baron Porkface posted:http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3414736&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 You were banned because a mod asked you to back up what you were saying and you got snippy with them. Not quite the same thing
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Feb 11, 2016 23:16
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Zeroisanumber posted:Some analysts were bandying around $15/bbl as the possible low, but commodity analysts have been wrong so often that that number is probably only a little better than a wild rear end guess. The price went down a bit below 10 bucks in 1998, I guess they're factoring in inflation for the worst-cast-scenario?
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Feb 11, 2016 23:19
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