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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

CalmDownMate posted:



How hosed are we serously?

Depends on which "we" you're talking about. If you're talking about Venezuela or an Exxon stakeholder, you're pretty hosed. If you're talking about your average hugbox gibbis retard, it's a pretty sweet deal.

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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

NathanScottPhillips posted:

No it's because of fracking. That is the only reason.

Fracking is one reason, the complete collapse of cohesion among members of OPEC is another.

I like to think of Vlad Putin dabbing sweat off of his head at the thought of oil dropping below $20/bbl.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Vermain posted:

Where are they going to put their money now?

The US is the only game in town at the moment.


Venomous posted:

So will this gently caress over Hillary in the general?

Nope.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Nevvy Z posted:

I had this idea recently. Someone should setup a system by which I can buy a couple hundred bucks of gas redeemable whenever. Basically small scale private speculation by the x number of gallons.

How dumb is this idea?

The problem that you have is that no one is going to be interested in the idea of selling you gasoline redeemable "whenever" because their value is constantly decreasing due to storage and transport costs. The only entities that buy the way that you're describing are big air carrier and shipping firms (e.g. Delta Airlines).

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Acelerion posted:

Who knows what, if anything, that will lead to but at the minimum a lot of banks are going to be sitting on oil and gas assets going "what the gently caress am I supposed to do with this exactly?"

Cap the well and wait. Half of loving Williston, ND is in standby mode waiting for prices to get better.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
Chevron (CVX) is down 1% today and oil dropped below $30/bbl again before settling at $30.22. Gonna wait until it falls below $30 and stays there at close and then buy, buy, buy!

Also, the Russians have to revise their budget because they forecast at $50/bbl so lol.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

The types of earthquakes caused by fracking are virtually imperceptible to people- who gives a gently caress if the number of 2-3.0 earthquakes is vastly higher it's utterly irrelevant. Fracking just seems like one of those issues where the strongest arguments against is are "the other party likes it", because there's no legitimate argument against fracking where the wastewater is properly handled.

I think I might've found an issue.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Celot posted:

hah WTI is more expensive than Brent now.

As an oilfield worker this personally blows. Almost everyone I know has been laid off. Already had to ship up to Canada for winter projects. Just chasing work wherever it is.

There's an open spot in al-Khobar, Saudi I might apply for. Or there's always law school.

Saudi pays well and you don't pay income tax there. If you're young and don't have attachments, then there's no reason to not take some of those evil old men's money.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
Fun fact: At $28/bbl oil is worth less than the actual barrels that they store it in.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Mozi posted:

Crude oil is now at $26.26.

And I'm still paying $1.95 for gas, what gives! (VT)

$1.65 here in MN, and I imagine that it has to do with the vagaries of regional supply and demand (and how much they think they can still gently caress you).

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Acelerion posted:

Very little frankly. There is way more oil being produced per day than there is demand for it so in this case its mostly supply/demand driven. Oil is very demand driven and is what is is. More oil around does mean demand increases to compensate so the difference between 2% over supplied and 2% under supplied is massive price swings.

I rather like the fact that an 18-month window for a price crash probably caught a lot of speculators off-guard and that there are a bunch of white collar, country club assholes sweating bullets right now.

I know it sucks for the roughnecks and office guys, and I have sympathy for them, but I've got to get my yuks out of this situation somehow.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

computer parts posted:

Which again is tarring the workers with the same brush as the job. Yeah their job is lovely, but there's a reason why they're doing it: there's no other work available, certainly no better work.

Definitely no better work. I know guys who barely got out of high school and were scraping by with warehouse work who went up to Minot and made good money while the boom was on. And yeah, some of them blew through it all on expensive toys and hookers, but I can't blame a guy who's never had money and doesn't know how to manage it if he fucks up and overspends.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Karl Barks posted:

i'm glad the oil people are losing their jobs. i think it's good.

But what if it's actually bad? Have you considered that?

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Buckwheat Sings posted:

It's good for the wildlife of Alberta. Now they just need about 100 years for it revert back to something that doesn't look like a stripmine.

But no matter how hard you try it will never stop looking like Canada.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

gaj70 posted:

Weird. Around here anyway, the locals are almost always strongly pro-development. Any opposition to projects comes from distant, urban dwellers.

Could be that that's because we end up footing the bill when "development" ends up doing things like leaching pollutants into the groundwater, and meanwhile the locals buy jetskis and fishing tackle and bitch about how they aren't getting a six lane superhighway built so that "development" can go even faster.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Celot posted:

Tbh we (oil workers) are pretty big pieces of poo poo for directly contributing to global warming. We probably need rehabilitation or something in order to become worthwhile people who don't put our own income before literally anything else. I know that the unemployment is pretty bad without oil, but eesh.

Reeducation sounds expensive. Would you be alright with some form of exile?

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Squalid posted:

I hereby BANISH all surplus drill crews to their choice of either Phuket Thailand, Bali Indonesia, Jaco Costa Rica, or an equivalent third world beach town with a low cost of living and an adequate supply of brothels; for a period of no less than two years or until crude sells above $50 a barrel.

Don't bogart my good ideas.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

gaj70 posted:

Yes, having your house appreciate 250% in five years must be rough. I hear lottery winners have a surprisingly tough life, too.

In all seriousness, North Dakota is about as god-forsaken a place as you'll find on Earth. Before the oil boom, I actually did a back-of-the-envelope calculation (just going price per acre for grazing/rec land X number of acres) and calculated you could have bought the entire state for a few billion dollars

A friend of mine makes crazy oil money (or did before the crash) for just that reason. His great-aunt bought a bunch of land outside of Minot back in the 70's to raise horses on because it was cheap as hell.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
US companies would probably just laugh. No one is going to trust a pack of Oil Sheikhs, the Iranians, and Vlad loving Putin to hold to a deal.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

OhFunny posted:

Crude oil below 27 dollars a barrel.

How low can it go?

Some analysts were bandying around $15/bbl as the possible low, but commodity analysts have been wrong so often that that number is probably only a little better than a wild rear end guess.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Mercury_Storm posted:

The price went down a bit below 10 bucks in 1998, I guess they're factoring in inflation for the worst-cast-scenario?

I actually remember that. Gas around me was $.73/gallon at one point. 18-year old me was pretty happy about it.

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Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Peel posted:

From the Middle East thread:


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35564492

This is... unexpected. I guess the Saudis are starting to hurt in the pocketbook?

How significant is this?
[/quote]

Of those nations the only people who could possibly increase production at all are the Qataris and the Saudis, and Qatar is not a market shaking player. Venezuela's production is actually dropping because they have corrupt idiots running their oil industry, so they probably signed on because Russia or Saudi threw some cash their way.

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