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gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Grey Area posted:

It's the Saudis doing this. They are trying to destroy the North American fracking business, Iran and Russia, all of which have far less money in the bank than KSA.

You can't really destroy the N.A. fracking business. Sure, individual companies will go out of business, but the technology and know-how will remain. Effectively, N.A. fracking becomes a ceiling on prices.

The leadership of Iran/Russia, on the other hand, probably need the revenue to even maintain their geopolitical positions...

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gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Nevvy Z posted:

I had this idea recently. Someone should setup a system by which I can buy a couple hundred bucks of gas redeemable whenever. Basically small scale private speculation by the x number of gallons.

How dumb is this idea?

One way to hedge future price increases would be to buy oil company stock. A (significantly) more advanced method would be options/futures contracts on the commodity itself.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

A Buttery Pastry posted:

The fact that responsibility is divided does not really seem particularly relevant to me. Dumping industrial waste in an unsafe manner doesn't become fine just because "everyone else is doing it".

The problem is that you need to prove in court that company x's actions caused your damage, and that company y's actions weren't an intervening cause. That's not going an easy thing to do.

That said, it's probably not going to matter much. A curious consequence of our environmental laws is that we discourage large, responsible companies from doing this kind of thing.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Rand alPaul posted:

How do you know Company A's cigarette caused your lung cancer? :smugdog: Case dismissed.

Historically, smokers have lost those cases (due to assumption-of-the-risk defenses, but also causation). The legal innovation was direct suits by government insurance agencies.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

ComradeCosmobot posted:

Also California has to bring all oil in by tanker. There are no pipelines that cross the Rockies with refined or unrefined crude. That's why we talk again and again about the danger of oil trains (because trains are the only other way to get it here)

So it's expensive because shipping costs are higher, too.

Easy fix...just start leasing state waters for oil and natural gas production (again). By the time it's online, oil will probably be expensive again.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Last Buffalo posted:

...This was a bubble from the beginning, right ... A bit of conciousness about the industry you're throwing your lot in with does go a long way.

How much of the boom money went into investing in something more long term.

Plenty of experts with all-the-right-credentials were predicting peak oil + increased demand (China, India, etc) would lead to perpetually higher prices. It's a bit much to expect some random roughneck to do a better job forecasting.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Trabisnikof posted:

There are lots of states where the legislature is in the pocket of industry and it doesn't matter what the local community or government tries to do, the state shuts it down....

Weird. Around here anyway, the locals are almost always strongly pro-development. Any opposition to projects comes from distant, urban dwellers.

gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Zeroisanumber posted:

Could be that that's because we end up footing the bill when "development" ends up doing things like leaching pollutants into the groundwater

Fair enough, and in addition, the locals get most of the benefits. But those concerns aren't really a reason to oppose/prevent development. They are just reasons to be concerned that the development is up-to-code and there is sufficient bonding in place.

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gaj70
Jan 26, 2013

Graedyn posted:

...
Heck, there were 20-year-old mobile/manufactured homes selling for $45k plus, and I'm not talking about the double-wides or whatever they call the ones that look like stick-build homes. Houses that would have sold for $100k five years ago were going for close to $250k.
...

Yes, having your house appreciate 250% in five years must be rough. I hear lottery winners have a surprisingly tough life, too.

In all seriousness, North Dakota is about as god-forsaken a place as you'll find on Earth. Before the oil boom, I actually did a back-of-the-envelope calculation (just going price per acre for grazing/rec land X number of acres) and calculated you could have bought the entire state for a few billion dollars

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