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My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
If anyone wants some info on various institutional outlooks on US energy & commodities market outlooks, there's some pretty exciting testimony being covered live on CSPAN-1.

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My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Mozi posted:

Crude oil is now at $26.26.

And I'm still paying $1.95 for gas, what gives! (VT)

I'm paying sub-$1.50 for gas

Gives me more money for pizza and beer.

God bless America

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

The_Franz posted:

There is an independent station around here at $1.41. For comparison, $0.89/gallon gas in 1999 would be about $1.28 after adjusting for inflation, so it's not quite at 90s prices yet but it's getting really close.

The dream of the 90's is alive in Obama's America

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

so why did north dakota's population still grow so much from jul 2014 to jul 2015

is it people coming in to mine the trapped roughnecks in williston for money

It's because Fargo's gentrifying and has a boom'n nightlife scene.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Zeroisanumber posted:

US companies would probably just laugh. No one is going to trust a pack of Oil Sheikhs, the Iranians, and Vlad loving Putin to hold to a deal.

Yet Obama trusts them to hold to their word on nuclear weapons!

RuanGacho posted:

Has there been any study on what happens to the petrol states if say, the price remains low enough for long enough or we pass peak oil consumption and they can never again feed their lifestyles on highly subsidised internal consumption?

I'm imagining SA having a high amount of things like gas powered generators because they can and then everything going to poo poo infrastructure wise because of the loss of government price support.

Yes, I believe its called the history of Somalia.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Another thing to consider in this thread: the oil of the Great Lakes. As cheap as Saudi oil to extract, and more of it than the Sauds have proven.

So loving much oil in Uganda, DRC, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, its so loving rediculous.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

LemonDrizzle posted:

The Economist has made a cool little doodad showing how the profitability of different countries' reserves depend on the oil price: http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/01/daily-chart-6?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/adjusting_the_taps_on_oil_price

It's quite impressive how thoroughly hosed everyone who isn't Saudi/Iran/Iraq/Kuwait/the UAE is when the price is <$40.

The thing to keep in mind is that only in free-market economies with democratic institutions will unviable capacity be allowed to be taken off the market.

This is why free and democratic institutions which are free and fair for whomever is a stakeholder are important: it allows your nation to lay off millions without facing an insurgency or civil war.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

MikeCrotch posted:

Well it might not have been a 'civil war' but Weimar Germany seems to disprove your theory

Weimar Germany, a historical state with a reputation for stability and a good ending.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Gas going for under $1.50, I've never seen it so cheap in my life. How low can it feasibly go?

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Cicero posted:

And right now it's around $1.70. So, fairly close.

I can go onto the rez and fill up tax-free for $1.40~ some a gallon. I've never seen gas so cheap in my life; thank god mileage reimbursement rates aren't adjusted on a frequent basis.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
There's an EIA presentation on CSPAN 1 right now about future projected demand and supply growth in the world liquids supply.

EIA still projects 1.5-2 million barrels per day demand growth year-over-year for 2016 and 2017. Not sure how firm that projection is, nor is EIA.

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My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Analyst forecast: $30 = single-digit profitability for rigs, $35 = double-digit profitability for rigs

If prices go up, wells will be drilled. What is likely to be seen for the next decade is for prices to be within a trading band between $30-$40, assuming 1.5-2 million barrel per day demand increase year over year. If demand increases are lower than projected, price band could be lower than forecast.

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