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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

The other thing, besides fracing that's driven down the price is climate change. The realities of climate change means that there becomes a point in the out-years where the future value of oil reserves approaches 0. That's why you see aramco thinking about selling shares and the Saudis pumping like no tomorrow. Because they recognize that there will only be a few decades left to pump their oil before it becomes worthless. Better to sell barrels at $30 or $20 than not at all.

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

reignofevil posted:

We use Oil to make Plastic so as long as we need Plastic Crap we will need Oil.

bioplastics is a huge deal that will keep growing and industrial usage of oil accounts for 1/4 of world demand. So sure, they'll be some people out there but not enough to hang your Kingdom's economy on much longer.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

tsa posted:

Where in the hell do you get this from? There's no way in hell CC drives oil to 0 that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Gas is an incredibly useful resource and so long as someone can profitably extract it there will be someone who wants to burn it.

1. Oil isn't Gas, I said oil.
2. Decarbonization is happening and will eventually smoother demand. SA will leave oil in the ground.
3. Like I said, there will be oil refiners but it won't be a market to support a kingdom with.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Mozi posted:

Would there be waste water disposal without fracking? Are the waste water disposal companies entirely separate from fracking companies, sharing no legal responsibilities? Are you just being pedantic?

While fracing is why there is so many wastewater disposal wells, but one can frac without using disposal wells.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

JohnGalt posted:

There could definitely be fracing with very little fluid disposal. In the Appalachian basin, it is pretty common practice to mix off production water into the next frac. It doesn't totally eliminate the need (due to TNORM or components that may interfere with completions), but it is significantly reduced. Why this isn't done in OK, I have no idea. I don't have experience there.

Pretty sure a big issue in OK is that the basin is very wet, so they may already be mixing production water back into the next frac, but there just is too much water to use up. But I may be mixing up drunken conversations in my memory.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

A Buttery Pastry posted:

The fact that responsibility is divided does not really seem particularly relevant to me. Dumping industrial waste in an unsafe manner doesn't become fine just because "everyone else is doing it".

But they're not doing it in an unsafe manner. That's the whole deal. No single well is causing this. No one operator can shut off and have the earthquakes stop. Likewise, one injection well wouldn't have the same impact that this many does. It needs better regulation as a group.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Still not sure how this changes the fact that their collective actions cause earthquakes. Like, I get that the whole regulatory structure around the thing isn't great, but lack of proper regulations shouldn't be the same as lack of responsibility.

Have you literally never heard of the concept of "the tragedy of the commons" because that seems to be the stumbling block you can't get over.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Squalid posted:

The proper response to the tragedy of the commons isn't just to let the pasture be grazed to oblivion. Recognizing that all the shepherds bear responsibility for the crisis is a prerequisite for action.

Yes, which is why they need to be further regulated.


A Buttery Pastry posted:

Is that really applicable here? You have companies acting in their own rational self-interest sure, but it's against the interests of not their own group as a whole, but of another group entirely. (That being residents in whatever area they're operating.) And even if it was applicable I'm not sure why it would matter? The tragedy of the commons isn't some perfect defense against acting in an irresponsible manner.

Most of those people are residents too. But if quakes shut down production, that's bad for everyone.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

The types of earthquakes caused by fracking are virtually imperceptible to people- who gives a gently caress if the number of 2-3.0 earthquakes is vastly higher it's utterly irrelevant. Fracking just seems like one of those issues where the strongest arguments against is are "the other party likes it", because there's no legitimate argument against fracking where the wastewater is properly handled.

But it is a real question if all states are ready to regulate such a complex process, especially in states without a history of O&G development. Small, fly-by-night operators can do real damage when local regulators can't or won't regulate effectively.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

JohnGalt posted:

I think it might be a little backwards here. Regulations in relatively new boom states like PA and OH are have MUCH stricter regulations than OK and TX. There is a reason TAFT (This aint loving texas) is a phrase.

Also, unconventional operations really can't be fly by night. A single well is going to require over 5.5 million in initial investment. Any company willing to put that kind of investment isn't fly by night. The mom and pop operators of conventional assest have much lower oversight because it isn't the focus of public afternoon and therefore get away with murder.

The PA threshold for reporting of fluid release to ground is 3 gallons in a 24 hour period. Most fluids in that quantity do not even have a real environmental impact.

Those regulations were passed after the industry hosed up already in many instances. There weren't prexisiting regulations in place when the basins we're opening up.

You're forgetting it's a complex supply chain. Sure, the whole operation is more complex than just sticking a pumpjack somewhere so maybe fly by night wasn't correct. But even small and medium sized operators have huge incentives to cut corners in this price environment. Then we get the contractors who can be even more incentivized to cut costs. The water trucking company, the injection well owners, the man camp with an illegal septic system, etc. All related to develop and in need of regulation.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Volkerball posted:

What research has been done that connects fracking to earthquakes, and if there is a connection, is it inherent to fracking or is the problem also present in non-fracked wells?

Its more the injection wells that cause the earthquakes and the science is in the phase of "we're very sure injection wells are causing earthquakes, but we don't know the direct relationships between an earthquake and the specific wells"

Here's an infographic about injections wells:

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Zeroisanumber posted:

Saudi pays well and you don't pay income tax there. If you're young and don't have attachments, then there's no reason to not take some of those evil old men's money.

And male, another important qualifier.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

rscott posted:

Idk maybe you should like, have a plan in place to dispose of your environmentally harmful waste before you start using it, that seems like the non lazy thing to do to me.

America's nuclear industry is lazy apparently. :rolleyes:

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

hobbesmaster posted:

In that case, the government said that they'd take care of it.

Then Reid became senate majority leader...

And who's job is it to regulate waste disposal! The government! I'm just following the law! :getin:

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Canada should store the oil in some stable medium like sand until the price goes back up

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

hobbesmaster posted:

Prices at the pump lag the price per barrel of oil a lot, mainly because the stuff making its way to gas stations was sold at whatever it cost the refiners to make and gas stations will try and nickel and dime each other down. ie, if its currently $3.00 a gallon why lower it to $1.80 if the guy across the street is charging $2.949 right now? Lets do $2.939!

ps its $1.72 here in metro Saint Paul, MN. Suck it California.

Whatever, the improved air quality is worth it.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Immature/ignorant people who blow through their money in a cyclical industry deserve pity not spite.



hobbesmaster posted:

Unfortunately life as we know it is impossible without hydrocarbons.

ftfy

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Evil Fluffy posted:

As someone who grew up in an area that was strip mined 80+ years ago I can assure you the oil sands are going to need a lot longer than that to recover. Any waterways that are contaminated with metals and other toxic poo poo are pretty much a lost cause for a very long time because its hard for anything to live in something where the bottom is layered in poison (in addition to the water itself being unlivable).

What makes it worse is the US has stricter reclamation laws than Canada too....

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Warbadger posted:

When thousands of new people with money move into Nowhereville and start buying poo poo it will, in fact, benefit the locals economically.

In someways but not others. Its great if you own a man-camp, not so great if your roads are ruined by trucks and you can't drive when it rains. Its great for the truck stop but not so great for the kids at the county park.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

ganglysumbia posted:

Your dinky back road is all torn up? The amount we paid in permits/leases for using those roads was insane as well. In Pennsylvania I've never seen so many newly paved roads out in the middle of nowhere... poo poo, even the dude selling sandwiches on drill pads probably raked in 100k+. Anyone who wanted a piece of the pie got plenty.



Any state, city, county, or individual who did not invest/save their money wisely is entirely at fault. The first day I started in the oilfield (and I had no knowledge of the industry prior) I was told things are going to go bust again, that was 4 years ago.

Really? There are lots of states where the legislature is in the pocket of industry and it doesn't matter what the local community or government tries to do, the state shuts it down. Setback requirements, road maintenance, emissions are all things where the state government can eagerly gently caress over a community on. Like sucks to be you if your community is more than a day's drive from a air quality inspector, it is going to be really hard to catch an operator illegally releasing if they only do it for 8 hours at a time (and at night).

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

JohnGalt posted:

In Appalachian basin, most (if not all) states require roads to be bonded prior to use. Every utilized road is repaired after (and during) that period. God help you if one of your subs tries to use the first 50ft of an unbonded road to to turn around because you're going to be slammed with a mid five figure fine.


I would like to see these no tax states. If you're talking about PA, it sure is a shame that the impact tax is only distributed to impacted rural areas instead of being diverted to those big cities who have no skin in the game.

Yeah the laws of this nation aren't all alike. Also, only 36 states have a severance tax.



gaj70 posted:

Weird. Around here anyway, the locals are almost always strongly pro-development. Any opposition to projects comes from distant, urban dwellers.

Some basins are actually in urban areas. Other times, the communities where the damage impacts (near sites, downstream) aren't the same communities where the economic boom hits (near highways or existing O&G infrastructure).

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Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Pretty sure it would be a crime for us producers to work together to limit production, that's like a textbook illegal cartel.

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