|
Spoeank posted:Y'all do realize that Devonta became the de facto second option towards the end of the season right? I just looked up his performance in 0.5PPR and he beat the #2 RB by 34 points and the #3 RB by 64 points. After that the dropoff from player to player is closer to 4-5 points. That is an insane difference when you consider he basically missed 2 games with a concussion.
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 04:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 5, 2024 10:58 |
|
|
MrSargent posted:I just looked up his performance in 0.5PPR and he beat the #2 RB by 34 points and the #3 RB by 64 points. After that the dropoff from player to player is closer to 4-5 points. That is an insane difference when you consider he basically missed 2 games with a concussion. Well yeah, scoring 10 TD's in like 4 weeks will do that. And that's not even counting all his yards and catches. I'm still not taking him in the 1st though. maybe i'm dumb
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 06:14
|
|
|
Also leading all RBs in rushing + receiving yards per game and scoring almost 2 PPG higher in PPR than any player who played 10 or more games completely ignoring touchdowns.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 06:25
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Also leading all RBs in rushing + receiving yards per game and scoring almost 2 PPG higher in PPR than any player who played 10 or more games completely ignoring touchdowns. The thing i'm most worried about is 80% of his fantasy output was during his first 9 games, his output significantly dropped for the remaining games. I'm just saying i wouldn't take him in the first, but i understand why people will.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 06:28
|
|
|
Paying for the previous year's output is probably the most likely thing to earn you a first round bust. The only guy I can think of that that's worked out was OBJ this year and he's a guy who could end up in the hall of fame, so I guess if you think Devonta Freeman might be the best RB of the next generation then sure go for it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 13:20
|
|
|
Dandy Kaiser putting words in mouths outchea. I'm just trying to dispel the myth that Freeman became a pumpkin the second half of the year. His YPC became trash but he became the second option in the passing game instead, which was the Falcons way of getting around the line becoming pumpkins. Also paying for sparq production is the road to nowhere THERE I SAID IT
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 15:12
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Dandy Kaiser putting words in mouths outchea. it is my way Just giving a counterpoint. I don't think that Devonta Freeman will be an unproductive player, I just don't think he'll return a first round value. I said the same thing about CJA but I guess I was wrong there  e: I do think that the TD regression thing is a huge red flag, but I can't deny that he's had between-the-20s value. I'm just not really ready to draft a guy in the first based on 3/4 of a season worth of production unless he's OBJ and even then I passed on him too. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Jan 27, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 15:28
|
|
|
I'm a big believer in Hue Jackson, so I'd easily be willing to do a mid to late round flyer on a player like Josh Gordon. Also a huge fan of Lamar Miller wherever he ends up. If Zach Ertz stays healthy, I think he may be a top 3 TE next year, esp with Pederson as HC.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 16:03
|
|
|
I think if it was clear that Freeman would continue getting volume, I would consider him around the turn. Volume is king in fantasy even if I don't regard a player particularly highly. But I'm just not sure that kind of usage is likely to continue. I'm not throwing shade - I'm honestly just not confident in either possibility. This past year, he had more red zone carries than anybody else in the league (over 3 per game) despite playing on a sputtering offense, and his usage rate among running backs was in the top 5. Those are two critical opportunity metrics I look for. He also looked good whenever he made it to the open field (thanks in large part to some terrific blocking by Patrick DiMarco all year). The problem is, he just honestly wasn't very good with that opportunity. In the passing game, he had one of the highest drop rates and lowest catch rates among starting running backs, and when he did manage to catch the ball, he was one of the worst in the league at converting catches to first downs. And on the ground, he really didn't impress me much. He had trouble evading and breaking tackles, and he really had issues finding the hole out of the backfield whenever DiMarco wasn't creaming the daylights out of some poor linebacker. A quarter of his runs failed to gain any yardage at all. One of the things I've been exploring recently is matching up run distributions between players (e.g. how many runs go for 1 yard, 2 yards, 3 yards, 4 yards etc) in order to find players that seem to be producing similar output. I have no idea whether or not it's predictive of anything (my intuition is that it does not predict much), and running output is likely to change significantly from year to year depending on scheme and situational factors (like QB performance and usage). But it's a potentially useful retrospective comparison - a bit of a benchmark of how they have been performing so far. The two runners of the past six years that most resemble Freeman's output are Andre Brown and Ryan Torain.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 16:11
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:I'm a big believer in Hue Jackson, so I'd easily be willing to do a mid to late round flyer on a player like Josh Gordon. Also a huge fan of Lamar Miller wherever he ends up. If Zach Ertz stays healthy, I think he may be a top 3 TE next year, esp with Pederson as HC. Honestly think Gordon will be drafted as like the ~25th WR off the board, and I'm not sure how I feel about it. I guess I'd be OK with him as my WR3 if I had a decent, low ceiling, decent floor WR4. But not sure I'm going to own him anywhere as other people probably expect more from him.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 16:12
|
|
|
So last year, people were going back and forth on AB84 being a #1 overall pick in PPR formats. This year, I am pretty sure that I would take him over anyone else at the #1 pick. Dude averaged 19.7 and 20.2 points the last two years in 0.5PPR, which is just insane. Who else would be in consideration for #1 overall? I see Bell/Charles dropping just a little in the first round coming back from injury and AP is getting up there in age.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 18:12
|
|
|
I thought it was dumb last year but honestly I don't think I see a better pick. Bell is really the only guy I think I'd want otherwise as I'm thinking that his injury recovery concerns are likely to be overblown and it wouldn't shock me at all for him to be RB1 next year.
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 18:28
|
|
|
I slept on it and here is my conclusion. By mid-year: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman = Gio Bernard/Jeremy Hill = CJ Anderson/Ronnie Hillman FULL BLOWN COMMITTEE
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 19:15
|
|
|
So you're saying by midseason Gio/Hill will be terrible too? 
|
|
#
?
Jan 27, 2016 21:40
|
|
|
Jeremy Hill is already terrible 
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 03:01
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Jeremy Hill is already terrible I know 
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 03:34
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Jeremy Hill is already terrible Did I see somewhere he had the lowest YAC in the league or something like that? Good lord he was really bad this year.
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 03:47
|
|
|
IPD certainly adds an interesting wrinkle to drafting. I'm In the midst of a dynasty dispersal snake draft with five teams, and just broke the seal in round 8 to grab Carlos Dunlap, who seems to be a consensus top 10 DE. Back to drafting offense for a few rounds! It's a pretty limited pool of players, unfortunately. I've gotten sniped on a few young RBs, Newton and lockett, and only drafted Murray due to the insane value I got from him falling. Here's what I am working with so far: Demaryius Thomas 1.02 Michael Floyd Golden Tate DeMarco Murray Austin Sefarian-Jenkins 2.01 Carlos Dunlap I don't love my team (especially DT who i plan to try and trade), and am expecting to punt year one(at least). Draft picks are drafted, which is kinda cool, and forces you to really put values on players.
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 15:02
|
|
|
Cervixalot posted:IPD certainly adds an interesting wrinkle to drafting. I'm In the midst of a dynasty dispersal snake draft with five teams, and just broke the seal in round 8 to grab Carlos Dunlap, who seems to be a consensus top 10 DE. Back to drafting offense for a few rounds! Just curious, who else was around when you picked Floyd and GTate? Grats on GTate btw, I'm a big supporter of him, he just needs more targets.
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 16:25
|
|
|
MacheteZombie posted:Just curious, who else was around when you picked Floyd and GTate? Grats on GTate btw, I'm a big supporter of him, he just needs more targets. DGB went one pick before Floyd, and the next WR off the board after was Lockett (after a few draft picks went off the board). I took Tate one pick after that. The next few picks went Ertz, Baldwin, Kuechly and Buck Allen. I view both Floyd and Tate as solid WR2s with upside. When Fitz and Calvin retire they have plenty of room for growth.
|
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 16:36
|
|
|
Cervixalot posted:DGB went one pick before Floyd, and the next WR off the board after was Lockett (after a few draft picks went off the board). I took Tate one pick after that. The next few picks went Ertz, Baldwin, Kuechly and Buck Allen. Thanks, shame you missed out on Lockett, but Floyd and Tate are solid picks out of that bunch. Kuechly would have been tempting for me. Speaking of IDP, wants some good arguments to bring up to league mates about adding IDP to dynasty and removing DST? I plan to push for it with my league this season and use a big play scoring setting to help level out the LBs compared to everyone else. Would love to have DL, LB, DB spots, but would just one or two Any Defensive Spots be better? E: Scoring I used in a "test league" this season: Tackle Solo - 1 Tackle Assist - .5 Sack - 4 Interception - 6 Fumble Force - 4 Fumble Recovery - 3 Defensive Touchdown - 7 Safety - 10 Pass Defended - 2 Block Kick - 6 Tackles for Loss - 3 Extra Point Returned - 2 MacheteZombie fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Jan 28, 2016 |
|
#
?
Jan 28, 2016 16:39
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:So last year, people were going back and forth on AB84 being a #1 overall pick in PPR formats. This year, I am pretty sure that I would take him over anyone else at the #1 pick. Dude averaged 19.7 and 20.2 points the last two years in 0.5PPR, which is just insane. Who else would be in consideration for #1 overall? I see Bell/Charles dropping just a little in the first round coming back from injury and AP is getting up there in age. I think AB84 will be the consensus #1 pick. Everyone in my auction league is already talking about building their team around him. The bidding is going to be terrifying.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2016 07:24
|
|
|
So with Calvin Johnson's retirement seeming pretty likely, what is this going to mean for Golden Tate? I don't know that I have seen enough of his play to say whether he has the potential to a be a #1 receiver. Also, if a player retires, what does that do to their cap hit/dead money next season?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2016 18:50
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:So with Calvin Johnson's retirement seeming pretty likely, what is this going to mean for Golden Tate? I don't know that I have seen enough of his play to say whether he has the potential to a be a #1 receiver. Also, if a player retires, what does that do to their cap hit/dead money next season? The salary comes off the books (and Megatron doesn't get paid any of it), but any bonuses tied to the contract are pro-rated against the cap hit throughout the contract years. He had $36mil in various bonuses for his most recent contract, most of which has been accounted for already, but all the remaining pro-rated bonus money accelerates to the following year after a player retires. Long story short, the Lions are on the hook for over $12 million. Golden Tate owned for the weeks that Megatron was banged up back in 2014. He had a 6-week stretch where he averaged 120 yards per game. He looked sharp, picked up crazy yards after the catch, and showed pretty good hands. Downside is the he's not much of a red zone threat (hello Ebron). If Detroit can improve their damned offensive line I'd feel relatively confident about Tate and Abdullah next year.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2016 19:06
|
|
|
Tate is a great YAC WR. He finished 8th overall in yards after the catch, behind Woodhead, Theo Riddick, Julio, A.Brown, Gronk, Landry, and Kelce. Only 3 of those guys have more TDs (Tate has 6, Julio - 8, ABrown - 10, Gronk - 11) and he tied Woodhead for TDs. He's a quick WR that can run routes extremely well. He wasn't far behind C. Johnson on the target list (128 vs Mega's 150), so I'm not sure how much his production will increase, but I think he has the talent to see a good bump in production. My biggest concern will be his route depth. The big names like Julio, Odell, Antonio, etc. all caught passes at 20+ yards at least 20 times (19 for Odell) while Tate only did that 7 times. If Tate starts getting those route calls and hauls in the catches he could be an excellent fantasy option. He'll never be the redzone target Megatron was, but if he becomes their primary stick mover he could make up for it. Bias alert: I guessed (guess because calling it anything else would be a lie) that Tate would be better in 2015 than Megatron, as well as just thinking highly of Tate compared to other people.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
Golden Tate is gonna get a ton of yards because of the YAC but the offense is going to sputter out in the red zone after the ball bounces off Ebron's hands, then Abdullah runs into a wall and Theo Riddick gets 7 yards in the flat. Tate will probably be a very reliable WR2 next year. OR  ZACH ZENNER RUNS FOR A BAZILLION TOUCHDOWNS
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 00:19
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Golden Tate is gonna get a ton of yards because of the YAC but the offense is going to sputter out in the red zone after the ball bounces off Ebron's hands, then Abdullah runs into a wall and Theo Riddick gets 7 yards in the flat. Yo my man, keep the lid on ZZ Top. Dude's going to be my sleeper RB1
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 00:24
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:
get in
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 00:49
|
|
|
I can already see it now...Zach Zenner is going to be our Charles Sims of 2016, isn't he?
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 01:36
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:I can already see it now...Zach Zenner is going to be our Charles Sims of 2016, isn't he? So you're saying I should own both?  Because I already do. 
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 16:29
|
|
|
Yea if you have a 20 man bench and an IR slot Zenner is worth a spot.
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 16:53
|
|
|
MacheteZombie posted:So you're saying I should own both? Staying one step ahead of the curve, that's how champions are made.
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 17:06
|
|
|
Spoeank posted:Yea if you have a 20 man bench and an IR slot Zenner is worth a spot. My league wants to cut roster size.  10 team, .5ppr league. Our current roster size is 29 due to yahoo limitations. (moving to myfantasyleague this offseason)
|
|
#
?
Feb 2, 2016 17:14
|
|
|
The Ground Control Project is live. First chapter and first app are up. Chapter 2 and two more apps go up within the week. Goons: assemble.
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2016 16:56
|
|
|
Forever_Peace posted:The Ground Control Project is live. First chapter and first app are up. Chapter 2 and two more apps go up within the week. Goons: assemble. Wow, this is really cool for hopeless nerds like me who can't get enough of this poo poo. I'm sure you have considered ways to use this data to help predict fantasy value? Anything we can do to help in that regard?
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2016 19:14
|
|
|
Very cool stuff Forever_Peace - bookmarked and look forward to keeping up with this series! Any Dynasty players up for some back-and-forth roster analysis? Interested to hear how you all manage your teams and approach trading in the dynasty format.
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
MrSargent posted:Wow, this is really cool for hopeless nerds like me who can't get enough of this poo poo. I'm sure you have considered ways to use this data to help predict fantasy value? Anything we can do to help in that regard? Weeeellllll I'm trying to be careful with claims of "prediction". I'll be getting into it eventually, but NFL stuff is notoriously hard to predict. I WILL, however, be doing plenty of speculating from retrospective data! For example, in the upcoming chapter 3, I run through all of the major 1st and 2nd year running backs, use an algorithm to determine which veteran players they have the most similar output to, talk a little bit about the impression that I get from their run charts (with some film notes), and comment briefly on how much I like them as a prospect. And there is also an app that will allow you to do pretty much exactly the same thing with any player you want. It's not the same as "predicting fantasy value", but I certainly think it's fantasy relevant. One of my goals is also to make folks smarter consumers of commentary. When you hear things like "Eddie Lacy is not breaking tackles at the line any more", I want to make it easy for you to just go look for yourself how his running this season compares to last season, and whether the difference is in the short yardages near the line or in long runs or in getting stuffed more often etc. I am beyond excited to write chapter 4, which talks a lot about the impact of randomness in the NFL running game, with a focus on sample size. It's been the topic I've most wanted to write about since I originally started futzing around with the data.
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2016 23:59
|
|
|
Oops, just realized I forgot to answer you second question. Yes, there's a ton of things I could use help with! The OP has a list of "data wishes" with links to google docs that show the data format I need. If there's something in particular you think would be cool to look into, just get the ball rolling in the thread and we'll figure out the best way to gather and enter the data we need for it. The second and third are probably the most fantasy relevant (draft info and combine measureables).
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2016 00:22
|
|
|
WITHOUT LOOKING Who has the most fantasy points in a (singular) Super Bowl in the last 20 years (according to PFR)? Spoeank fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Feb 5, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2016 17:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 5, 2024 10:58 |
|
|
Spoeank posted:WITHOUT LOOKING I'm just going to take a wild guess and say Eli Manning.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2016 17:59
|
|