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He had crept back up into the top 30 or so ADP in dynasty start ups in the r/dynastyff crowd, it was absurd. Of course people were drafting Martavis Bryant as like a top 15 WR too. I don't think most dynasty people appreciate risks associated with guys nearly as much as they should.
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Apr 12, 2016 17:03
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RVProfootballer posted:He had crept back up into the top 30 or so ADP in dynasty start ups in the r/dynastyff crowd, it was absurd. Of course people were drafting Martavis Bryant as like a top 15 WR too. I don't think most dynasty people appreciate risks associated with guys nearly as much as they should. This is definitely a problem with dynasty, and I think it stems from the writers people are listening to. Writers get stars in their eyes about sparq scores and athletic upside but ignore that some people are just too plain dumb to be on the football field. It's the persistent drum beat of "yeah, but what if..." that permeates fantasy football writing and not enough people are there to point out, "yeah he's athletic as hell but he's dumber than a bag of rocks so he doesn't see the field if there are other options COUGH CHRISTINE MICHAEL COUGH"
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Apr 12, 2016 17:20
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my season last year in my keeper league was disastrous and my only even viable keepers were FAs Dion Lewis and Josh Gordon. Spoeank posted:he's dumber than a bag of rocks so he doesn't see the field if there are other options The Jerious Norwood Paradox
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Apr 12, 2016 18:07
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https://twitter.com/MaryKayCabot/status/719992230182825984
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Apr 12, 2016 22:02
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Spoeank posted:It's the persistent drum beat of "yeah, but what if..." that permeates fantasy football writing and not enough people are there to point out, "yeah he's athletic as hell but he's dumber than a bag of rocks so he doesn't see the field if there are other options COUGH CHRISTINE MICHAEL COUGH" Hey CMike worked out great for me. I traded him a Jordan Cameron for a 1st and 2nd.
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Apr 12, 2016 22:08
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Hey all. I am in a 10 team keeper league with 4 keepers per team. I'm trying to pick my 4 keepers out of the following group: WRS: Alshon Jeffrey, AJ Green, Allen Robinson RBS: Devonta Freeman, Thomas Rawls, Lamar Miller I traded away my 1st and 2nd rounders for 2016 last year, so I'm looking to deal my non-keepers for picks if possible. I have two 3rds and two 4ths. Another gm has offered me his 1st rounder (9th overall) plus two 6th rounders for Jeffrey and Freeman. I'd really like to cash in on these players, but this seems like a low offer. However, the other gm knows that I'm over a barrel in trying to get early picks and recoup some value from players that I won't keep anyway. I'm afraid of Devonta not living up to his ranking, but Rawls and Miller seem just as uncertain to me. What do you think? Should I pull the trigger?
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Apr 15, 2016 02:59
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ubiquitous rex posted:Hey all. I am in a 10 team keeper league with 4 keepers per team. I'm trying to pick my 4 keepers out of the following group: I would keep all three receivers. WRs last longer.
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Apr 15, 2016 04:42
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ubiquitous rex posted:Hey all. I am in a 10 team keeper league with 4 keepers per team. I'm trying to pick my 4 keepers out of the following group: With 10 teams and 4 keepers, you're going to be hard pressed to find a better WR, even with the potentials in the rookies this year. With an extra first round pick, though, you might be able to get a top QB to pad the points, if your league is scored that way. I would take the trade.
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Apr 18, 2016 04:26
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Solfrann posted:With 10 teams and 4 keepers, you're going to be hard pressed to find a better WR, even with the potentials in the rookies this year. With an extra first round pick, though, you might be able to get a top QB to pad the points, if your league is scored that way. I would take the trade. He traded away his first and second round picks, so it wouldn't be extra. My problem is that with so many keepers even the 9th overall won't give much.
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Apr 18, 2016 04:32
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:He traded away his first and second round picks, so it wouldn't be extra. My problem is that with so many keepers even the 9th overall won't give much. Yeah, I completely missed that line of his post. In that case, keep the WR's you have, you're committed.
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Apr 18, 2016 04:34
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Alright then; I'll ask you this. Who would you keep out of these three RBs: Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, or Thomas Rawls?
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Apr 20, 2016 03:15
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ubiquitous rex posted:Alright then; I'll ask you this. Who would you keep out of these three RBs: Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, or Thomas Rawls? Same price? Miller imo, he's got quite a bit less risk than the other two and just about the same upside.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:39
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I like Rawls there. Assuming he's healthy by week 1. Hard to fault taking Miller though. Both are moderate risks, the type of risk is just a bit different.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:49
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Lamar Miller less risk than Thomas Rawls? Not even close.
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Apr 20, 2016 04:01
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Rawls is coming off injury, has a miniscule sample size, and Seattle might draft a back, so I don't think there's anything wrong with thinking he's riskier than those other two.
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Apr 20, 2016 06:58
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Lamar Miller was allowed to just leave by a team without trying to retain him and was actively drafting his replacement last season. Last season he was continuously rotated off the field for his replacement, despite showing real talent while he was on the field. He's entering a situation with a team that just signed a new QB and a new RB, and no real WR2... There's gotta be a reason why the Dolphins wouldn't throw a full load at him and just let him leave in FA. And it's more than "lol Dolphins." Miller has lots of question marks but the fantasy football community as a whole has decided they're smarter than an NFL franchise. Rawls got hurt and is the RB1 to Christine "loving Christine Michael" Michael. The Seahawks have been run-heavy for like 4.5 out of the last 5 years. His only real question mark is injury, and it was a broken ankle, not a soft-tissue injury that will recur.
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Apr 20, 2016 07:13
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I read the Fins wanted to keep him but simply got outbid by Houston. And a lot of his lack of production last year, especially in the early part of the season, was simply a combo of "lol Dolphins coaching" and the team getting blown out. Since the Texans obviously don't have have a problem with running a RB into the ground, I'd expect them to use their new toy quite liberally By July I'd probably see them as fairly equal, or maybe even have Rawls ranked higher if he heals up fine and the Seahawks don't draft any backs. But as of right now I'd rather gamble on Miller, especially in PPR.
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Apr 20, 2016 07:57
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coronaball posted:Rawls is coming off injury, has a miniscule sample size, and Seattle might draft a back, so I don't think there's anything wrong with thinking he's riskier than those other two. These are my thoughts. Spoeank posted:Last season he was continuously rotated off the field for his replacement, despite showing real talent while he was on the field. "lol Dolphins", he's a three down back so not really concerned about Houston having a bad offense honestly, and they couldn't throw a full load at him because they have no cap space and you can sign some random UDFA or 5th(?) rounder like Ajayi for next to nothing to do a passable job probably, respectively. Miller is stepping into a team where Foster was basically a lock as a top 3 RB for any of the small time he was healthy, there's all the opportunity in the world there. I actually am a tiny bit concerned limiting Miller's workload wasn't just lol Dolphins, except in games where he got a full RB1 load he was still good. So not too worried about it. Spoeank posted:His only real question mark is injury, and it was a broken ankle, not a soft-tissue injury that will recur. Nah, coronaball articulated his risks perfectly. coronaball posted:By July I'd probably see them as fairly equal These are my thoughts too. sourdough fucked around with this message at 11:18 on Apr 20, 2016 |
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Apr 20, 2016 11:09
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This isn't just a case of goons thinking they know better than an NFL team anymore - it's a case of the Texans thinking they know better than the Dolphins, to the tune of $12mil over the next two years (his actual contract is $24mil over 4, but it's structured in a way that make Miller very easy to cut in years 3+4, but very hard to cut in years 1+2). It's not exactly a ringing endorsement, but Foster has been pretty damned good when healthy (so they know how to use a talented runner), and they are just as much of a run-heavy team as Seattle. As I see it, Miller's risk is that we don't know if he can carry a lot of more than ~15 carries per game (though he now moved from a team that rarely ran to a team that runs more than just about anybody else in the league, and his share of the run load wasn't too abnormal), the QB situation sucks so the offense will probably be bad (and bad offenses tend to hurt RB production), and he showed some signs of slowing down last year even on a per-carry basis. His upside is that we know he's a good runner, he had a good year catching the ball and could probably fill the Foster role competently, the Texans are building a promising run-blocking line, and the Texans tend to have a stupid high number of rushing attempts (volume is king for fantasy). Rawls' risk is that we don't actually know at this point whether he'll even be healthy by week 1 (though signs are good) and he'll probably miss all of the training and conditioning prior to the season, it"s not unlikely that they bring in another back, he had a relatively small sample size, and he doesn't appear to be much of a receiving threat. But his upside is pretty simple: he looked like a hell of a runner last year, and is currently the probable lead back on a perennially good team. I still like Rawls better (I've been his cheerleader here for a while now), but it's not so big of a gulf that it'd be unreasonable to prefer Miller.
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Apr 20, 2016 12:04
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Forever_Peace posted:This isn't just a case of goons thinking they know better than an NFL team anymore Beyond this, the Dolphins might have just thought money was better spent elsewhere, too, rather than that Miller isn't good. Also, it isn't like all NFL team decisions are smart. I'd easily accept that most of the time they are better than decisions we'd make, but the Rams trading for pick 1 this year or the Eagles signing Murray for a ton of money last year are obvious examples where most people think it's a mistake and most people will probably be right. It happens.
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Apr 20, 2016 13:10
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Miller is cool and good and the dolphins are dumb and bad. He's going to have a great year. Full stop.
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Apr 20, 2016 13:53
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coronaball posted:Rawls is coming off injury, has a miniscule sample size, and Seattle might draft a back, so I don't think there's anything wrong with thinking he's riskier than those other two. This would be my advice also. There are way more unknowns with Seattle and Rawls right now than with Miller. Miller will definitely run the ball. A lot.
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Apr 20, 2016 17:58
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LmaoTheKid posted:Miller is cool and good and the dolphins are dumb and bad. He's going to have a great year. Full stop. High-Five.
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Apr 20, 2016 18:00
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Miller already had the 12th most targets + carries do you guys really think he's gunnin for that #1 spot. I'm not saying he's bad, I just think y'all are underestimating his question marks because B.O.B. GONNA RUN HIM INTO THE GROUND.
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Apr 20, 2016 19:24
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Welllllll not a lot of guys played the full season this year. But fantasy is a weekly game, and Miller was 22nd in touches on a per game basis. There's a pretty good chance that Houston bumps that considerably. At least, they probably want to. The question is whether Miller can carry that load without compromising efficiency.
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Apr 20, 2016 19:30
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Forever_Peace you my guy 
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Apr 20, 2016 19:31
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Forever_Peace posted:Welllllll not a lot of guys played the full season this year. But fantasy is a weekly game, and Miller was 22nd in touches on a per game basis. There's a pretty good chance that Houston bumps that considerably. He can and he will.
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Apr 20, 2016 19:34
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Apparently Kenneth Dixon just did a visit with Houston. Not sure if that actually means anything, but if Houston were to draft him, I'd imagine there'd at least be some hand-wringing over what it means for Miller's usage.
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Apr 20, 2016 19:37
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So last season our commish up and decided that we are a keeper league. I wasn't super happy about that since I basically got hosed out of my first round pick, but whatever, I lucked into an 8th round Devonta Freeman. I suggested to him after the fact that maybe our keepers should not automatically take our first round pick and should instead be based somehow on how they performed the previous season or where they were drafted the previous season. He claims ESPN only allows first round pick replacement for keepers. Is that accurate? Do you guys know if ESPN allows the commish to edit the draft order at all so we can try to make this keeper business a little less retarded? Thinking of not doing that league again anyway since the waiver system is bad and we have like 4 really active and engaged players while the other 8 don't bother paying attention.
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Apr 21, 2016 02:30
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We just switched to ESPN last season so maybe our commish missed something but it does look like you can only set keepers as first round picks. We base our keepers on the previous years draft position so we tried to make each coach brings a list of keepers that we wouldn't draft. That as well as you can imagine. A keeper would be drafted out of order and there would be a chorus of "He's Bob's keeper, moron. Pay attention" and "Why would Marshawn Lynch be available in the 5th round, dumbass." The commish would back up the pick and the same keeper would get drafted 2 turns later. We're trying to think of a better system this year.
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Apr 21, 2016 03:04
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Y'all dudes are making me go back and rewatch all the Dolphins offensive snaps. I'm through two games and the most impressive player out of the backfield is Jarvis Landry Also they literally do not have Miller pass block, which is really weird. He's not a release valve either, he just sorta leaks out and stands off to the side  On plays where they want to air it out and need extra protection they put in Williams, otherwise they split Miller out wide.
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Apr 21, 2016 03:14
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Dolphins bad, Miller good.
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Apr 21, 2016 03:37
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Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by "lol dolphins"
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Apr 21, 2016 04:28
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Spoeank posted:the most impressive player out of the backfield is Jarvis Landry people who aren't surprised: me
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Apr 21, 2016 05:06
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This season will be my first time playing dynasty as I recently took over a vacant team advertised on reddit. The league format is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 D/St, .5 ppr, with one of the flex becoming superflex in 2017. There are 12 teams and despite scoring the fourth lowest points total last season the team somehow came 4th, leaving me with the 9th pick. I think the team is a bit weak to compete this season and so am inclined to focus on building for the future, and with superflex on the horizon better QBs seem like a priority. Does anyone have any suggestions of where they would start? QB: A Smith, Eli, Griffin RB: Langford, Yeldon, Forsett, Jennings, Rainey, McCluster WR: Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Tyler Lockett, Tavon Austin, Andre Johnson, Deanthony Thomas, Taylor Gabriel, Harry Douglas, Ty Montgomery, Brandon LaFell, Victor Cruz TE: Witten and Donnell DST: Pats
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Apr 22, 2016 22:59
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The Aguamoose posted:This season will be my first time playing dynasty as I recently took over a vacant team advertised on reddit. The league format is Looks like 2016 will be a rebuild so look to trade Marshall for a young QB to someone with an overstock of them - Look at the Mariota, Winston, Osweiler owners as one might bite for a short term stud WR for a championship run next year, and you might even be able to get another young RB/WR or two on top of it. Draft WR heavy early (unless Zeke Elliot somehow makes it to 9) and pick up a couple of RBs late, preferably guys who should end up second string with potential to carry more load when starters become free agents or get injured (see Jay Ajayi, Buck Allen, Karlos Williams). There always seems to be a TE or two you can grab from waivers that emerge every year to fill the gap there. This team needs quality youth everywhere and is not a championship contender unless Eli turns into Peyton in his prime and Langford/Yeldon both get heavy lead back shares. You might want to do some research into second year players that are on the wire as well. I am guessing there are a few guys like a Philip Dorsett (1st rd pick Colts last year) that have up side possibilities after weak rookie showings you can stash instead of someone like DeAnthony Thomas as an example.
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Apr 23, 2016 04:39
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The Aguamoose posted:This season will be my first time playing dynasty as I recently took over a vacant team advertised on reddit. The league format is This is a pretty full gut job for me. Depending on how your leaguemates value guys, I'd look to sell even youth like Langford and Lockett if you can get a good return (some people think each will be huge this upcoming year). Yeldon is probably a hold, as people seem to be pretty down on him after the Ivory signing. Definitely sell Brown now before he gets any older or has a slightly worse season that knocks him off his perch. Griffin is a hold, as his value could massively spike if he shows off anything this year. This is dynasty superflex, so Marshall isn't going to come anywhere close to getting you a young QB. He's a sell for anything like a mid 2nd or better, and if you can't get that, wait til in season and hope he carries on from last year. In summary: Sell Eli for any 1st round pick, Smith for anything better than a late 1st, hold Griffin Sell Langford for anything better than a late 1st, hold Yeldon, sell all other RBs for literally anything Sell Brown for ~3 first rounders, as long as it's something like an early, a mid, and a late, or 2 early firsts (1.01 + 1.02 definitely is enough here). Sell Lockett for any mid 1st or better, Marshall for any mid 2nd or better, sell all other WRs for anything Sell either TE for anything Sell DST for anything Target basically only WRs, picks, and young QBs if their owner is undervaluing them and not realizing their value in your upcoming superflex. I'd basically totally punt on 2016, stocking up on rookies and future picks, and hope to hit on enough in 2016 and 2017 to become competitive by 2017/2018. If your league allows future pick trading, always try to work in 2017 picks. Add in a 2017 2nd or 3rd wherever possible, always try to substitute someone's 2017 1st instead of their late 2016 1st, etc. Stocking up on free handcuffs or backup RBs could be ideal; you lose more games in 2016 by starting them, and if the guy ahead of them goes down, you gain huge trade bait during the year...precisely when people are valuing picks least.
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Apr 23, 2016 04:56
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Thank you both, much appreciated. Plenty of food for thought. While the specific players you've suggested trading differ, the overall message is the same - trade everyone and anyone I can get a good deal for. There are a few promising young players available as free agents, I'll be trying to scoop them up when waivers reopen after the draft. I don't mind that the team needs a lot of work, it'll just make it all the more satisfying a few years down the line when I (hopefully) have built it up from nothing.
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Apr 23, 2016 05:54
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RVProfootballer posted:This is a pretty full gut job for me. Depending on how your leaguemates value guys, I'd look to sell even youth like Langford and Lockett if you can get a good return (some people think each will be huge this upcoming year). Yeldon is probably a hold, as people seem to be pretty down on him after the Ivory signing. Definitely sell Brown now before he gets any older or has a slightly worse season that knocks him off his perch. Griffin is a hold, as his value could massively spike if he shows off anything this year. This is dynasty superflex, so Marshall isn't going to come anywhere close to getting you a young QB. He's a sell for anything like a mid 2nd or better, and if you can't get that, wait til in season and hope he carries on from last year. There is one issue I have with this idea - people generally overvalue 1st round picks when it comes to player-for-pick trading. What you are proposing requires some competency in the league, which makes this line of thought quite difficult to pursue in even a modest form. From my experiences Eli won't get a 1st, Smith won't get a 1st, Lockett won't get a 1st, Langford MIGHT get a first but doubt it. I guess a factor is how long has this league been around for? If it has been a few years then maybe those are possible, but I tend to think not. Brown could fetch what you want, but as WR1 you can hold him back and pursue other avenues first and trade him as a nuclear option if you cannot get youth other ways. Would be best to keep him as he should have 5+ years of very high production ahead of him and you do not find that production in the draft readily. Another avenue to pursue is just moving up in the draft - my 2nd rd and ***** for your 1st rd. 3rd and *** for 1st/2nd rd - this tends to work a lot better IMO. Remember that 3rd rd and beyond are pretty much needle in haystack shots and if you can offload any pick rd 3+ with a player (or 2, or 3) that is not a top guy to get into the top 2 rounds (and hopefully first) you are winning.
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Apr 23, 2016 15:41
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Chen Kenichi posted:There is one issue I have with this idea - people generally overvalue 1st round picks when it comes to player-for-pick trading. What you are proposing requires some competency in the league, which makes this line of thought quite difficult to pursue in even a modest form. From my experiences Eli won't get a 1st, Smith won't get a 1st, Lockett won't get a 1st, Langford MIGHT get a first but doubt it. I guess a factor is how long has this league been around for? If it has been a few years then maybe those are possible, but I tend to think not. Brown could fetch what you want, but as WR1 you can hold him back and pursue other avenues first and trade him as a nuclear option if you cannot get youth other ways. Would be best to keep him as he should have 5+ years of very high production ahead of him and you do not find that production in the draft readily. True enough about the QBs, those values are assuming superflex, which isn't kicking off yet. Better to hold them than sell for too little now, though. There's a trade calculator made by one of the /r/dynastyff guys, dynastyfftools.com, that aggregates ADP from some number of places (I actually don't know exactly from where, though). Lockett has an ADP of 44 and Langford 77. That's good for roughly pick 3 and pick 8. Brown does have years of production left, but op needs an overhaul and would be far better served turning 1 guaranteed top tier WR into 2-3 good shots at quality top 20 WRs. Brown having another 2-3 top 3 years isn't helping op win any championships, just helping lower the value of his upcoming draft picks. In the 2QB ADP, which is almost certainly noisier, Eli is at 88 and Smith at 115, good for picks 9/10 and 15. Whether his league values any of those guys in those ranges is of course another question  Also really like your idea for just moving up. I think this works best during the season, when you can offload an older but productive RB2 or WR3 that won't have much value during the off season. Obviously won't work now, but last off season, something like Andre Johnson and a 3rd for someone's 2nd, or trade a handcuff + 3rd to someone for their 2nd, etc. sourdough fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Apr 23, 2016 |
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Apr 23, 2016 16:19
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