Fantasy Football Offseason Thread 2016: The answers are in here, I know it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football Offseason Thread 2016: The answers are in here, I know it

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Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

RVProfootballer posted:

Sell Brown for ~3 first rounders, as long as it's something like an early, a mid, and a late, or 2 early firsts (1.01 + 1.02 definitely is enough here).

I am down for everything but this, mostly because I think Brown has a chance to be a stud for the next 3+ years.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 16:20

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# ? May 5, 2024 13:36

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

Also someone was chatting with me about Jay Ajayi on Reddit and his worth as a 6th round, and I figured my response was worth discussing here:

quote:

We'll have to see how things roll out, but as to your points:

Jay Ajayi averaged 3.8 YPC on 49 rushes for a total of 187 yards plus 90 yards on 7 receptions. As a 5th round pick by a previous staff (both the GM and the head coach are new this year) the Dolphins have absolutely no reason to stick with him. Incidentally Miami's offensive line was the worst for run blocking last year according to PFF, which makes Lamar Miller's performance even more impressive.

Melvin Gordon averaged 3.5 YPC on 184 rushes behind the 31st ranked run-blocking line. Their pass block was also the worst in the league. He himself admitted he was terrible, but as a first round pick for San Diego I would expect far more leeway.
Giovani Bernard suffers from having to compete with Jeremy Hill but was still the RB21 in standard. I agree that he's not a reliable source of point, but he's demonstrated a reasonable floor and certainly has some upside. More importantly he has a history of putting up points; in 2014 he was the RB18 in standard.

Justin Forsett will be 31 in October but with far less wear than most RBs his age, and we've seen a trend where RBs can perform better for longer. He averaged 64.1 yards rushing and 15.3 yards receiving per game and received double digit carries for every game except the one he was hurt in. His injury was a broken forearm which should not impact his ability to run. Obviously we'll want to see how things work out in competition, but I wouldn't be surprised if Forsett comes out on top again.

Ameer Abdullah was in a similar situation to Melvin Gordon, with the 26th ranked run blocking scheme. Abdullah did better than Gordon, averaging 4.2 YPC on 143 yards and getting roughly the same number of receiving yards on fewer receptions. Losing Calvin Johnson to retirement may also encourage more of an emphasis on the run game. Like Gordon Abdullah was an early draft pick (2nd round) and his coaching situation is largely unchanged from last year.

So what does this mean? Well to me it means that Jay Ajayi's situation is far less certain than others near his ADP. Other sophomore RBs have more touches in teams that have a more consistent coaching situation. The sixth round is when the high risk, high reward questions really start to come into play and in my opinion there are better risks than Ajayi. Obviously this may change in the future, but as of now that's how I feel.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 16:21

The Aguamoose: Jan 10, 2006; "Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."

I posted on the boards saying I was looking to rebuild and everyone on the roster was available for the right price, including AB (though I will be looking for a King's ransom for him, if for no other reason than I'm a Steelers fan). Being new to the league I don't yet have an idea of how the other teams value picks and players yet so this is how to find out.

The one offer I've got so far is a real lowball if dynasty trade tools like the one RVP linked are anything to go by (Brandon Marshall for 3 out of Jamison crowder/DeAndre Smelter/Kenny Bell/Pick 32) so presumably they're testing me out too.

I like the idea of trading up mid season when pick value is at its lowest, definitely going to take advantage of that. Also I scoured the free agents as suggested and there are some promising young players there waiting for me to pick up after the draft, like Brandon Coleman.

What have I done to myself, now my fantasy football obsession will be year round!

# ? Apr 23, 2016 17:29

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

Also someone was chatting with me about Jay Ajayi on Reddit and his worth as a 6th round, and I figured my response was worth discussing here:

Out of those four, Ajayi is the most likely to see his value absolutely crater this time next week.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 17:32

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Spoeank posted:

Out of those four, Ajayi is the most likely to see his value absolutely crater this time next week.

Agreed. And I say this as an Ajayi owner.

Abdullah still my guy out of that lot.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 18:01

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

I would have to agree with that but that backfield is questionably packed and we don't know how an offseason under ~Jim Bob Cooter~ might rejigger the offense.

Everyone was going gaga over Zach Zenner last year, and Theo Riddick was insanely productive in the passing game (tied with Allen Robinson, Eric Decker and Danny Woodhead for 18th most catches with 80).

# ? Apr 23, 2016 18:19

Forever_Peace: May 7, 2007; Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah Shoe do do do do do do do Shoe do do do do do do yeah

Don't think anybody preferred ZZ to Abdullah. We (I was one of them) preferred ZZ to some of the various other dudes you could get for peanuts on deep bench leagues. Still do, though that injury was nasty.

Theo looked good in the passing game, but Abdullah has some silky smooth hands too. With Joique finally gone, I'm all aboard the AA train if he looks to be getting at least 60 percent of the load.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 18:31

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Preferring ZZ to other jokers inherently implies that you think ZZ is going to chew up some of Abdullah's production, though. RB production on a team is a zero sum game (mostly).

Abdullah is all promise but he hasn't shown anything outside of his literal first career carry. I still like him the most out of those four jamokes though.

# ? Apr 23, 2016 18:45

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

What are the odds that Tim Hightower will be fantasy relevant next year? He was re-signed by the Saints and is sitting back behind Ingram I guess, but for a guy who was out of the league for four years he looked pretty good when he was playing last year. Ingram tore his rotator cuff in December, had surgery December 10th, and I'm not sure where he's at physically now.

Is there any discussion about the Saints drafting an RB?

# ? Apr 24, 2016 06:57

Veritek83: Jul 7, 2008; The Irish can't drink. What you always have to remember with the Irish is they get mean. Virtually every Irish I've known gets mean when he drinks.

Leperflesh posted:

What are the odds that Tim Hightower will be fantasy relevant next year? He was re-signed by the Saints and is sitting back behind Ingram I guess, but for a guy who was out of the league for four years he looked pretty good when he was playing last year. Ingram tore his rotator cuff in December, had surgery December 10th, and I'm not sure where he's at physically now.

Is there any discussion about the Saints drafting an RB?

Triplett at ESPN puts RB at the bottom of the list for Saints draft priorities. Ingram, Hightower, Spiller, Cadet, Marcus Murphy and Vick Ballard are all on the roster right bow.

Presumably Hightower will back up Ingram and would probably see a full workload in another injury situation. I'd say he's a decent zero RB pick.

# ? Apr 24, 2016 13:58

Silly Burrito: Nov 27, 2007; SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Leperflesh posted:

What are the odds that Tim Hightower will be fantasy relevant next year? He was re-signed by the Saints and is sitting back behind Ingram I guess, but for a guy who was out of the league for four years he looked pretty good when he was playing last year. Ingram tore his rotator cuff in December, had surgery December 10th, and I'm not sure where he's at physically now.

Is there any discussion about the Saints drafting an RB?

As a Saints fan, I would have trouble trusting any one specific RB, especially considering how pass happy we are. Ingram if you had to, but it's a crap shoot any way.

# ? Apr 24, 2016 22:13

Thwomp: Apr 10, 2003; BA-DUHHH; Grimey Drawer

Ingram was killing it for most of last season prior to getting injured.

# ? Apr 25, 2016 14:20

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

LOL Tom Brady.

# ? Apr 25, 2016 18:27

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

LOL Tom Brady.

Lol. Looks like supreme court is next step if he wants to appeal? That'd be awesome

# ? Apr 26, 2016 02:01

Veritek83: Jul 7, 2008; The Irish can't drink. What you always have to remember with the Irish is they get mean. Virtually every Irish I've known gets mean when he drinks.

RVProfootballer posted:

Lol. Looks like supreme court is next step if he wants to appeal? That'd be awesome

# ? Apr 26, 2016 02:10

The Aguamoose: Jan 10, 2006; "Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."

The rebuilding of my dynasty team has begun. I traded away Langford for a 1st and 2 2nds, 1 next year. I'm not confident in him long term (in large part due to this analysis:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/02/24/why-youre-way-too-high-on-jeremy-langford/ ) so am happy with that return.

The next trade I have on the cards is trading away Brandon Marshall. The 2 main dynasty trade evaluators differ on the deal currently floated so I'd like to run it by you guys for a second opinion:

Marshall and a 2017 2nd (likely late, say 10/12) for a 2017 1st (likely late, say 9/12), Jamison Crowder and Kenny Bell.

Should I hold out for a better deal? I am thinking I will tell the league the offer and give them the chance to beat it, and if no-one does to go for it.

If Fitz ultimately doesn't re-sign I can see Marshall's perceived value dropping a lot, whereas at the moment I think most people assume/hope Fitz will be back.

# ? Apr 27, 2016 08:19

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

That would be enough to get Marshall from me. Without knowing how your league differs from consensus/my leagues, to give you an idea of how older receivers are valued, Calvin Johnson was going for like an early to mid 1st this off season. I'd snap at getting a late 1st for Marshall, so the offer you have is still good enough.

I definitely wouldn't publicly announce the offer on the table. Find any other teams that look light at WR and ready to make a run this next year or two, and privately offer them Marshall, maybe something like Marshall and your 2017 3rd for their 2017 1st (or whatever, if they have something else you like better). I still wouldn't tell them explicitly the other offer you have, just that you have interest.

# ? Apr 27, 2016 11:01

The Aguamoose: Jan 10, 2006; "Yes, I remember the Aguamoose..."

Thanks. I wouldn't announce the exact offer, just say I had one that I was going to accept on a certain day, in case anyone else was interested in the player.

I get the impression that's fairly normal in the league as on the boards there were complaints about a blockbuster trade before I joined where the seller undersold and others were annoyed they hadn't had the chance to make a better offer.

# ? Apr 27, 2016 11:52

Honore_De_Balzac: Feb 12, 2013

I think you can get more for Marshall. I would send an offer to the whole league for their 1sts straight up.

The Fitz thing is a concern, but selling Marshall to move a round up is a bad move imo.

# ? Apr 27, 2016 17:40

weas: Jul 22, 2007; Tougher than the
toughest tough guy

David Johnson is Yahoo's #1 RB this year?

# ? Apr 27, 2016 18:09

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

all individual fantasy site rankings are dumb, here you go

http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/consensus-cheatsheets.php

he's still the current #3 RB though, wow

# ? Apr 27, 2016 18:21

Rahzmataz: Apr 29, 2013

This might not be the best place to ask, but does anyone have a league with a couple of spaces? Played for the first time last year in a public league and of the 10 teams, 4 were inactive. Looking for a league with space for me and my other half if possible.

We're good for easy wins!

# ? Apr 27, 2016 18:28

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

I mean, how do I not keep David Johnson for a 13th after seeing that?

# ? Apr 28, 2016 05:04

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

David Johnson RB#1 :laffo:

It's Lev Bell and anyone who tells you otherwise is a dumb poop face.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 05:18

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Spoeank posted:

David Johnson RB#1

It's Lev Bell and anyone who tells you otherwise is a dumb poop face.

You better believe I'm going to push David Johnson as RB#1 in my leagues though.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 15:40

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Lewis at 20 is pretty criminal IMO.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 15:42

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Dynasty trade offer time!

So I joined a dispersal dynasty draft earlier this year, and am working on overhauling my team over the next season or two by targeting youth and 2017 draft picks.

I have a guy who is hounding me for my 1.02 rookie pick, and sent me this offer:

He gives: Dorial Green-Beckham, 2017 1st (he's a bad team)
I give: 2016 1.02, 2.05 and Willie Snead

I like DGB's physical traits and upside, but have concerns with his route running and off the field issues in the past adding risk. I prefer the 1.02 to him straight up, and depending on landing spots, would be selecting Treadwell or Docston with that pick.

I'm leaning towards standing pat for a few days to see how landing spots shake out, as I expect the 1.02 to increase in value after the draft this weekend, leading up to our rookie draft this summer. Any thoughts?

Here's my team, if it helps (left out my IDP guys):

QB: Dalton, Palmer, Smith
RB: Demarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, Karlos Williams, Dunbar, Crowell, Taliaferro, Gillislee, Carey
WR: Demaryius, Michael Floyd, Tate, Snead, Smelter, Hogan, Steve Smith, McBride, Quick
TE: Delanie Walker, ASJ, Z Miller

# ? Apr 28, 2016 17:37

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Cervixalot posted:

Dynasty trade offer time!

So I joined a dispersal dynasty draft earlier this year, and am working on overhauling my team over the next season or two by targeting youth and 2017 draft picks.

I have a guy who is hounding me for my 1.02 rookie pick, and sent me this offer:

He gives: Dorial Green-Beckham, 2017 1st (he's a bad team)
I give: 2016 1.02, 2.05 and Willie Snead

I like DGB's physical traits and upside, but have concerns with his route running and off the field issues in the past adding risk. I prefer the 1.02 to him straight up, and depending on landing spots, would be selecting Treadwell or Docston with that pick.

I'm leaning towards standing pat for a few days to see how landing spots shake out, as I expect the 1.02 to increase in value after the draft this weekend, leading up to our rookie draft this summer. Any thoughts?

Here's my team, if it helps (left out my IDP guys):

QB: Dalton, Palmer, Smith
RB: Demarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, Karlos Williams, Dunbar, Crowell, Taliaferro, Gillislee, Carey
WR: Demaryius, Michael Floyd, Tate, Snead, Smelter, Hogan, Steve Smith, McBride, Quick
TE: Delanie Walker, ASJ, Z Miller

At this point, I would stand pat. Maybe a month ago if you were feeling the itch to trade I'd have moved those picks (though I don't think DGB is worth a 1.02), but the draft is tonight so definitely let the landing spots shake out to potentially jack up the 1.02 value.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 17:40

Chen Kenichi: Jul 20, 2001

Cervixalot posted:

Dynasty trade offer time!

So I joined a dispersal dynasty draft earlier this year, and am working on overhauling my team over the next season or two by targeting youth and 2017 draft picks.

I have a guy who is hounding me for my 1.02 rookie pick, and sent me this offer:

He gives: Dorial Green-Beckham, 2017 1st (he's a bad team)
I give: 2016 1.02, 2.05 and Willie Snead

Ummmm DGB + 2017 1st for your 1.02 is at least close to fair. No way I do this trade from your end

# ? Apr 28, 2016 18:11

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Chen Kenichi posted:

Ummmm DGB + 2017 1st for your 1.02 is at least close to fair. No way I do this trade from your end

Thanks all - I get tunnel vision while trading sometimes, and those big shiny assets distract me. Gonna hang out til after the draft and see how things shake out.

2017 pick hype is real.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 18:14

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Are we gonna have our own TAQ draft thread for tonight's draft, or am I stuck with the TFF "100 posts per minute" draft thread? I can never keep up in those.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 19:44

Zypher: Sep 3, 2009; Rutgers

Your 2006
Mythical National
Champions!

I'd say just post in this thread during the draft. Don't think a separate thread will get too much traffic considering only about 5-10 of these guys are gonna be fantasy relevant this year outside of IDP

# ? Apr 28, 2016 20:40

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Why would anyone not do IDP?

But yeah, that probably makes sense. I wasn't sure if we had a separate thread in past years or not.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 20:46

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Leperflesh posted:

Why would anyone not do IDP?

I keep asking my league this, and they still won't add IDP!

# ? Apr 28, 2016 20:50

Quarterroys: Jul 1, 2008

Where do y'all stand on the great Treadwell vs. Doctson debate of 2016?

# ? Apr 28, 2016 20:58

Honore_De_Balzac: Feb 12, 2013

MacheteZombie posted:

I keep asking my league this, and they still won't add IDP!

IDP is bad. We already have too many kickers.

Also I lean Doctson because of upside.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 21:09

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Honore_De_Balzac posted:

IDP is bad.

The opposite is true. Sorry you don't like fun.

Cervixalot posted:

Where do y'all stand on the great Treadwell vs. Doctson debate of 2016?

Doctson.

# ? Apr 28, 2016 21:10

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Alright, Zeke confirmed as 1.01 in every dynasty league.

Curious how high everyone thinks he'll go in redraft. Gotta be like 2nd round at the latest, assuming no really bad news comes out during this offseason?

# ? Apr 29, 2016 01:40

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Doctson over Treadwell mostly because that Minny team is built to run and defend and IDP IS THE BEST

# ? Apr 29, 2016 06:09

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# ? May 5, 2024 13:36

Beer4TheBeerGod: Aug 23, 2004; Exciting Lemon

LOL Jay Ajayi.

# ? Apr 30, 2016 03:10

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football Offseason Thread 2016: The answers are in here, I know it

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