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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah, unfortunately a drug is going to have to get into the pain pathways at some point and the low-hanging pharma fruit has been plucked. Hopefully one of the next gens will work but the good news for the US at large is that when it comes to opiates, the BULK of the answer is already pretty clear. We just need to use way fewer opiates. Not easy, of course, but it's not a R&D problem that's going to fail in clinical trials or something.

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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

computer parts posted:

Because when we do that, we get heroin outbreaks.
Not going to argue against putting money into safe injection sites and treatment etc. but, that aside, to escape the hosed-up obstacle course we've built that's the next step.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Jun 9, 2016

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I guess at least the opiate ODs are yielding a lot of organs. Still way too many old sick people for them to go around, though.

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/10/14/497799446/organ-donations-spike-in-the-wake-of-the-opioid-epidemic

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
It has been the way things were going in general since 2011 (when the Florida pill mills got shut down, when the first doctors started getting prosecuted etc.). Basically that's when the price for oxy etc. started to go up, heroin-related deaths started to go up, etc. A lot of doctors knew what was up over decade earlier, but my sense was that 2014-ish was when the bulk of even out-of-it doctors had come around. A few are still behind the curve, of course.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah, a lot don't know addiction (e.g., Dr. Drew says a lot of doctors get super pissed when they find out their patients lied to them, while people with experience are like "yeah no poo poo, that's what addicts do, don't take it personally") and also the quick taper probably leaves a doctor with the least legal liability. It's not always really clear what they SHOULD do, to be honest, if the patient doesn't have a lot of money (in which case hey go to rehab). It's not like most people can pull of a gradual taper on their own, either. The lowest hanging fruit is not getting a lot of new addicts out of people just having outpatient procedures etc.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
That (along with a similar compound) is the stuff the Russians pumped into the theater to resolve a hostage situation in 2002
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis
not a terrible idea if they had given everyone naloxone afterwards but they didn't so lots of people died

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

OhFunny posted:

The full breakdown of 2015 deaths from the CDC has been released:
  • 52,000+ Americans died from drug overdoses in 2015.
  • 33,091 deaths from opioids.
  • 12,700 deaths from prescription painkillers.
  • The rest from heroin and other related drugs.
  • Synthetic opioid deaths rose 135% in New York, 125% in Connecticut, and 120% in Illinois.
  • Heroin deaths rose 57% in South Carolina, 46% in North Carolina, and 43% in Tennessee.
  • West Virginia, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Ohio lead nation in deaths per capita at 41, 36, and 30 (tied) per 100,000.
  • The repeal of the Affordable Care Act would throw 1.2 million people off their addiction treatment programs.
Above isn't wrong but just to be clear: 33k is the total opiates, 12k of THAT is prescription stuff, and the rest of that 33k is "street drugs", mostly heroin. Though of course you get overlaps.

The analysis I want to see is a rough forecast, based on extant addiction and current levels of people maintaining, dying, or stopping using, how big the rest of this iceberg is going forward.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Putting straightforward suicide attempts aside, what proportion of users-mixing-opiates-with-depressants-who-OD knew they were playing with fire, do you guys think? Seems like it would be high. Feels semi-suicidal, at least the "gently caress it" sense.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Jan 4, 2017

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I will cobble together a response to that this weekend.

Maybe in the meantime you can regale us with what you think happened in the last decade.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Lote posted:

I would use more up to date findings. You're using a paper from 2010. The author that you're citing wrote the new CDC guidelines in 2016 for prescribing opiates which draw completely opposite conclusions and recommendations.
It's a meta-analysis from 2010. So it's a summary of papers from before that. I'll try to come up with the summary of an academic argument this weekend.

KingEup: totally agree that harm reduction stuff is definitely part of the solution, though we might disagree on the specifics (I don't have strong opinions here, it's hard to say for sure, though I wouldn't say "open the oxy floodgates" for example). Totally agree taking opiates in isolation isn't that bad for you biologically (though you can push it to losing-your-hearing levels, narcotic bowel syndrome levels [toasticle?], etc.). The thread has been these places and most people agree, I think. In a world where addiction tends to cause other parts of your life and decision-making to unravel, it's a problem... OD is now the leading cause of "injury death". Government policy is PART of that world, sure.

That said, surmising that the opiate epidemic cause is "intensification of government crackdown" is weapons-grade obtuse.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
You're shifting it a bit already, which is fine, but: I reject that that a government crackdown was what got 2+ million people addicted to prescription opiates, which is more THE CAUSE of the epidemic. The government recently cracked down on prescription opiate availability, which many sane doctors had already done on their own, because they didn't want that number to keep going up.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yes, what insane doctors, not enlightened about how restriction is the monocausal problem and availability is the monocausal solution like KingEup

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah, sorry I didn't get around to doing an effortpost, not that it's a great loss or anything I just said I would and the weekend got away from me.

If the rate of iatrogenic opiate addiction were just MEDIUM (in an absolute sense) then like 20% of the country would be addicted. There were a ton of opiate prescriptions. That's the main base-rate thing that KingEup is eliding with his evidence. People definitely get addicted in part for endogenous reasons, but there's a reason the rate blew up recently and it's not that mysterious and it was the opposite of a crackdown. And yeah, things are going to be bad for awhile regardless of what policy is. We've got ~2 million opiate addicts walking around.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Jan 30, 2017

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Another paragraph from the intro of the article:

quote:

However, two major facts can no longer be questioned. First, opioid analgesics are widely diverted and improperly used, and the widespread use of the drugs has resulted in a national epidemic of opioid overdose deaths and addictions. More than a third (37%) of the 44,000 drug-overdose deaths that were reported in 2013 (the most recent year for which estimates are available) were attributable to pharmaceutical opioids; heroin accounted for an additional 19%. At the same time, there has been a parallel increase in the rate of opioid addiction, affecting approximately 2.5 million adults in 2014.9 Second, the major source of diverted opioids is physician prescriptions.10,11 For these reasons, physicians and medical associations have begun questioning prescribing practices for opioids, particularly as they relate to the management of chronic pain. Moreover, many physicians admit that they are not confident about how to prescribe opioids safely,12 how to detect abuse or emerging addiction, or even how to discuss these issues with their patients.13

KingEup you're locked in on this narrative that isn't true and even without the redtext you have the smell of somebody who either can't or won't think straight about anything, only gets worse with increased "expertise", and is totally fine with scorched earth debating and goalpost shifting. It's hard to tell how much of it was iatrogenic versus diverted, but in the context of pill mills those sources are basically the same thing. Both are "availability".

And, ultimately, the "how did we get here" isn't the same question as the "how do we fix it", where people to varying extents will agree with you. I'm not super interested in hearing your thoughts on that topic, either, to be clear, but at least we don't have to spend time on sky-is-blue stuff.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Well, if we could go back in time to the mid 90s and change prescribing guidelines on opiates, or strangle oxycontin in the crib, or something similar along these lines, well that would have decreased a lot of harm!

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 20:30 on Jan 30, 2017

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Jesus don't tell people taking percocets to switch to suboxone, wtf

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2621435&pagenumber=367&perpage=40#post468879086

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
KingEup what's your "angle", on addiction, history-wise? Like are you a former addict, had parents with issues (I'm this), are a doctor, what? Just curious and interested in the topic? Like I don't think you're a pharma rep but I don't get you at all.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Along those lines, the recent This Life podcast with Battlefield Addiction was interesting. The guests aren't great as far as "how to be on a podcast" goes, but you hear a lot about different kinds of users in different places, different reasons for their using, different approaches to treatment, how things are changing, etc.
http://drdrew.com/thislife/

As a total aside, I think Dr. Drew thinks doctors are responsible for the epidemic and NOT pharma for a few reasons, but one of them is because he got ID'd as taking $ from GSK for talking up Wellbutrin's lack of sexual side effects (or even positive sexual side effects), which he defends himself from by saying it was consistent with his clinical experience etc. In other words, pharma is just pharma being pharma and it's the doctor's job to do the right thing, which he claims he did.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah I think he basically did get paid to tell what he thought was true, problem is he didn't disclose he was paid by GSK etc. A no harm no foul thing but also pretty obviously not-great ethics-wise.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Interesting, knew vaguely that "giving opiates in the hospital didn't result in addiction" got fuzzed into "giving opiates doesn't result in addiction" but didn't know kind of the original lynch-pin of that.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Sure. Caffeine helps, too.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

Weren't a lot of psychiatry related drugs discovered by accident?
A lot of all drugs are discovered by accident. It's true that the mechanism of efficacy is GENERALLY less well understood in psychiatric drugs but it's also true that that understanding is surprisingly bad for a lot of all kinds of drugs.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Don't recommend this podcast in general (it's "outside my comfort zone" / borderline homework for me) but there was a good interview with Sam Quinones (author of Dreamland) on EconTalk about the heroin epidemic. His "beat" is Mexico and Mexican Americans so he knows most about that side of things.
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2017/01/sam_quinones_on.html

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
There is decent evidence that Ketamine might be a new antidepressant tool. In general though yeah antidepresants aren't a huge psychiatry success story for mild or medium depression and they wouldn't be the first thing I'd try. Put me in the psychiatrists aren't typically morons camp, though.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
LIfe expectancy dipped a bit in 2015 in the US, which doesn't happen often outside of things like the AIDS epidemic. They're kind of agnostic about it in the article but since nothing killing young-ish people has increased I'm pretty confident that opiate-related ODs are driving it.
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/12/08/504667607/life-expectancy-in-u-s-drops-for-first-time-in-decades-report-finds

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Ytlaya posted:

How does this work? I was under the impression opiates didn't actually cause any harm to the body outside of the respiratory depression if you take too much. People can experience side effects like malnutrition due to their addictions, but that isn't directly caused by the drug.
You can gently caress up your hearing (Rush Limbaugh) and you can screw up your GI tract/perforate your colon (Tom Arnold) but those are the only common ones I know. The first isn't fatal obviously and while the second can be it's not progressive if you can cut down opiate use AFAIK.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I think reasonable people can agree that over-prescribing opiates in large part caused the problem (which we can deduce by comparing the United States to other countries or being even mildly curious or even passingly knowledgeable about the timeline of oxy and pain as 5th vital sign or not being ideological morons, etc.) AND that pulling the rug out from that without a sensible policy about where these addicts would go would result in more OD deaths when they started doing heroin etc. Guessing narcan wasn't part of that 2011 Ohio plan, either. There would have been plenty of deaths--and even more fresh iceberg created under the surface--if they just kept the pill mills running, though. Hard to know what that lag would look like in aggregate, but if you care about human beings then another line you'd like to see on that chart is "# of new addicts/potential addicts".

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I'm not overstating things at all when I say your top-line takes are no less dumb than saying the opiate problem in 19th century China was due to government crackdowns or under supply.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
~23k drug convictions are going to be vacated in Massachusetts, though it took a long time by any standard to get here.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/stunning-drug-lab-scandal-could-upend-23-000-convictions-n739626

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Addicts generally don't lead normal lives and it's not just government policy that causes that.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
What would you guess is the over under on what those folks would choose if it was "just" a choice, though?

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Ytlaya posted:

Yeah; even on suboxone I never felt quite the same as I did back before I had ever used. Even ignoring the psychological issues, I couldn't experience feelings like pleasure or excitement in the same way I could when clean. I know that some addicts are able to feel totally normal on suboxone, but for me it just made things tolerable and preferable to using a short-acting opioid.
This is still a pretty good outcome, relatively speaking, though sounds like you got to an even better one. Even with perfect policy I don't know what proportion of addicts would end up doing real stable maintenance (on suboxone or methadone or heroin or whatever) and not getting other problems / be still able to meet life's normal challenges. Like the rate must be way better in Vancouver than in Cleveland, but Vancouver still has a lot of ODs.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

Teriyaki Koinku posted:

What is the significance of the exemption specifically? Is it part of the crackdown on pill mills?
Yes, though less PILL MILL in the Florida 2010 sense and more "doctors continuing to prescribe opiates for chronic pain when they probably shouldn't but it's less clear-cut". It's basically saying, "if you're going to give patients opiates outside of these accepted areas of long term use, you need to at least demonstrate you tried to taper the dose and it went south".

I have kind of the opposite reaction because yeah, tapers are loving painful which means hopefully-temporary loss of function and the BU-BUT HIPPOCRATIC OATH! response seems very disingenuously pearl-clutch-y to me.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I think it has pulled less focus in part for the same reason that nobody is talking about the genetic risks of addiction. It's tough to legislate genes and it's almost as tough to legislate hope. It's also kind of hard to argue that rural white Americans are uniquely hopeless and the opiate trend hasn't tracked (say) economic prospects that closely. Another aspect working against it is that the high profile deaths are all Heath Ledgers and Philip Seymour Hoffmans and Princes etc. THAT ALL SAID, yeah it's obviously part of what is going on.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Oh, the other factor that hasn't come up I don't think is child abuse. People who were abused as kids are way more likely to become addicts.
http://www.nijc.org/pdfs/Subject%20Matter%20Articles/Drugs%20and%20Alc/ACE%20Study%20-%20OriginsofAddiction.pdf

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
If you're a for-profit pharmaceutical hater, I can't think of a better recent argument than this lamebrain podcast about investing in companies with potentially-profitable "solutions"
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/04/18/can-drugmakers-cure-the-opioid-crisis.aspx

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I think reasonable people can disagree, here, but while Christie is a bad guy who should be in jail he's probably the best we could have hoped for (among plausible alternatives) in terms of being inform-able and reasonable on policy. The rest of the panel seems surprisingly decent. It probably helps that being associated with trying to fix the problem isn't exactly a plum assignment. Our healthcare system is geared ridiculously poorly to actually deal with this though so it wouldn't surprise me if the response amounted to handing out federal money to over-promising scammers but, even if they do great policy, we're still solidly on the going-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better side of things.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

tetrapyloctomy posted:

I saw my first probable carfentanil/sufentanil overdose recently. Naloxone worked so transiently that we needed to intubate, we literally would have obliterated the pharmacy's stocks trying to run a drip at a high enough rate. We're going to run out of vents and ICU beds if a big batch of it lands.
That's what people pointed out to me when I said they should have used it in Russia when they gassed the hostage situation (that narcan wouldn't do the job a lot of the time). Wonder if somebody is working on a stronger molecule or if that is even biochemically plausble.

Going just off word of mouth and a few articles and there is a clear observation bias there but it seems batches of overpowered stuff landing in a specific location is how this often goes down... haven't heard of facilities being overrun at least.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

tetrapyloctomy posted:

My hospital had over thirty overdoses in one weekend last year. Luckily most were just slightly-fentanyl-spiked heroin or the usual stuff, so they got a single dose of naloxone and walked. A lot of them don't get counted in the official stats: people bring them in a private auto apneic, blue, and limp; we butterfly them in the seat and slam in a dose of naloxone without moving them because it's faster than trying to drag dead weight out of a car into a chair or stretcher; they wake up, refuse to come in, swear at you for loving their high; and then their friend drives them off. There are dozens and dozens or users at The Tracks pretty much all the time, and if you get a batch of carfentanil-laced dope there, well, a lot of people are going to end up intubated or dead.

(My own record for reversed ODs was seven in an hour, in a Memorial Day Weekend shift in 2010 or 2011. I think we have five ventilators.)
*googles "improvised ventilator"*

Maybe you have a few more in the ambulances?

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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret

KingEup posted:

You have to be loving kidding me:
I would expect she's come around on at least some of that in the last 10 years but she's the worst one, yeah.

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