Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
View Results
 
  • Locked thread
Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

The DPRK posted:

On a slight tangent: I found Mark Blyth's book on Austerity really interesting. It helped me understand some aspects of the cause of the 2008 GFC. I'd like to understand what happened in the 1970's that caused the lurch towards what we have today, is there a book or a commentator as erudite and entertaining as Blyth on this subject?

I've seen a lot of angles on this over the years, but if you're interested specifically in why our wannabe oligarchs bought and repurposed conservatism...

quote:

On August 23, 1971, prior to accepting Nixon's nomination to the Supreme Court, Powell was commissioned by his neighbor, Eugene B. Sydnor Jr., a close friend and education director of the US Chamber of Commerce, to write a confidential memorandum titled "Attack on the American Free Enterprise System," an anti-Communist, anti-New Deal blueprint for conservative business interests to retake America for the chamber.[13][14] It was based in part on Powell's reaction to the work of activist Ralph Nader, whose 1965 exposé on General Motors, "Unsafe at Any Speed," put a focus on the auto industry putting profit ahead of safety, which triggered the American consumer movement. Powell saw it as an undermining of Americans' faith in enterprise and another step in the slippery slope of socialism. [...]

The memo called for corporate America to become more aggressive in molding society's thinking about business, government, politics and law in the US. It sparked wealthy heirs of earlier American Industrialists [...] to use their private charitable foundations, [...] to fund Powell's vision of a pro-business, anti-socialist, minimalist government-regulated America as it had been in the heyday of early American industrialism, before the Great Depression and the rise of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal.

The Powell Memorandum thus became the blueprint of the rise of the American conservative movement and the formation of a network of influential right-wing think tanks and lobbying organizations, such as The Heritage Foundation and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) as well as inspiring the US Chamber of Commerce to become far more politically active.[15][16]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_F._Powell_Jr.#Powell_Memorandum

And now we have several hundred billion dollars worth of assholes trying to bring back the Gilded Age

Edit: This Bill Moyers piece provides good historical context.

Accretionist fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Jun 28, 2017

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

uncop posted:

*Good stuff*.

My position is essentially that if you manage to prevent crises, that's great, but it's also fully artificial and there will be organic forces out to destroy that kind of artificial protection. Just like they drove a stake into the heart of keynesian institutions worldwide the first moment they looked weak. The reason i call this kind of political action "organic" is because it is distributed and rises straight out of the profit motive rather than any ideological motive alone. In the real world, market forces aren't just limited to fiddling with prices, but they will use every legal and sometimes illegal means to gain an edge. I will applaud whoever discovers a policy set that simultanously stabilises markets and prevents market actors from crushing it. I expect it will include far more than economic policies, and more of a full overhaul of democratic decisionmaking itself.

Thanks for the great post. I don't mean to be trite or render your post trivial but isn't that what progressive taxation is for?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

namaste faggots posted:

Thanks for the great post. I don't mean to be trite or render your post trivial but isn't that what progressive taxation is for?

It's not enough, as the last 90 years have shown the pendulum will always find a way to swing back.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

MiddleOne posted:

It's not enough, as the last 90 years have shown the pendulum will always find a way to swing back.

OK so this example is imperfect but what about countries with high marginal rate schemes like the Nordics?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

namaste faggots posted:

OK so this example is imperfect but what about countries with high marginal rate schemes like the Nordics?

Man we have one of the fastest privatizing markets in the world with sky-rocketing income inequality. Not even Cameron's UK went liberal enough to privatize the public school system but Sweden went there anyway. Our pendulum just swung a little further left before it turned in the 80's which is why we are still lagging behind the rest of the word. But do not mistake that for the pendulum not turning.





The DPRK
Nov 18, 2006

Lipstick Apathy

Accretionist posted:

I've seen a lot of angles on this over the years, but if you're interested specifically in why our wannabe oligarchs bought and repurposed conservatism...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_F._Powell_Jr.#Powell_Memorandum

And now we have several hundred billion dollars worth of assholes trying to bring back the Gilded Age

Edit: This Bill Moyers piece provides good historical context.

Thanks for this, very thorough.

Would anyone recommend Great Transformations by Blyth for this or does he skip quickly through the causation?

uncop
Oct 23, 2010

namaste faggots posted:

Thanks for the great post. I don't mean to be trite or render your post trivial but isn't that what progressive taxation is for?

Progressive taxation is a sort of babby version of downward redistribution that doesn't actually work by itself. It's impossible to tax a poor person so little that they can afford a lot more stuff. And you need progressivity across the tax system rather than just income taxes to get the rich to pay proportionally more than the middle class. Most nordic countries, for example, have almost flat income tax rates because they just direct actual government spending at people with low incomes.

Anyway, like i think you implied, spending-based downward redistribution acts as an automatic stabiliser for the economy, which should make recessions milder. But on the one hand you could say that the automatic stabilisers we had even in Europe before austerity weren't nearly enough, and on the other that markets don't actually seem to want demand-side stabilisation since corporations are at the very least passively supporting austerity and gutting benefits. If they thought they'd be better off with slightly milder recessions than the downward pressure on wages caused by harsher recessions, at least non-labor-intensive industries would be lobbying for benefits for people to spend on their stuff. But I feel like the actual strategy every big player is going for is getting governments to subsidise them directly during times of trouble. And the small and medium companies don't have a voice in a system where your amount of votes is proportional to your capacity to spend.

uncop fucked around with this message at 09:25 on Jun 29, 2017

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

No we don't. Our income taxes are anything but flat. Now capital taxes on the other hand...

uncop
Oct 23, 2010

MiddleOne posted:

No we don't. Our income taxes are anything but flat. Now capital taxes on the other hand...

Are there tax deductions on the bottom end that heavily change it from the numbers listed on the internet? On paper, nordic-style progression looks very different from, say, US-style.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

uncop posted:

Are there tax deductions on the bottom end that heavily change it from the numbers listed on the internet? On paper, nordic-style progression looks very different from, say, US-style.

You got to remember to consider US FICA taxes/State taxes in the equation and the US system also starts to look flatter as well. (FICA is an additional 7.5% and in Oregon the lowest bracket is 5%).

If anything Americans are already taxed more than a bit but we just have cut up our taxation in a different manner and we honestly get comparatively garbage in terms of services.

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless
America's only "low tax" if you're rich, once you combine all the regressive nickle and dime fees like car registration that costs me $500 a year on a newer Prius, the school fees for your kids, PIFs/sales taxes that apply on food and other goods that subsidize developers, the private garbage service you need to pay for now because the city one went tits up, the water bill that spirals higher and higher every month due to boomers wanting to pass the buck for repairs to younger folk, road tolls, healthcare copays, etc. we're feed and taxed out the rear end for comparatively nothing. Look at a disgusting state like WA where the rich get by completely scot-free while people who actually need to buy goods to live pay 11%+ sales taxes

The DPRK
Nov 18, 2006

Lipstick Apathy
Following the latest Mark Blyth video (a presentation and Q&A session alongside Michael Roberts), he mentioned that Portugal were doing fine despite being ran by socialist and communist parties.

I had a look at some of their growth figures and found this in particular quite interesting.

https://tradingeconomics.com/portugal/gdp-from-services

Am I right in thinking that this just about the only way a country's economy can go in the present climate if they don't actually manufacture any thing?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

uncop posted:

Are there tax deductions on the bottom end that heavily change it from the numbers listed on the internet? On paper, nordic-style progression looks very different from, say, US-style.

Specify which country and which numbers you are thinking of and I'll answer you.

rkajdi
Sep 11, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

call to action posted:

car registration that costs me $500 a year on a newer Prius

Where is that? I thought we had higher registration fees, and that's only $165 every other year. And the state right next to me (WV) is full of people bitching that their registration went up from $21 to $51 a year.

High sales tax is the dumbest thing ever though. It's basically a handbrake on consumption, which is one of the major drivers of any economy. Income tax can collect the same amount of money without hurting your consumption nearly as much.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

The DPRK posted:

Following the latest Mark Blyth video (a presentation and Q&A session alongside Michael Roberts), he mentioned that Portugal were doing fine despite being ran by socialist and communist parties.
I'm not sure using Portugal as an example is a great idea, their nominal GDP per capita is only like a third of the US's. Even adjusting for PPP puts them just over half.

SSJ_naruto_2003
Oct 12, 2012



Don't they have like way less resources than the us

Raldikuk
Apr 7, 2006

I'm bad with money and I want that meatball!

rkajdi posted:

Where is that? I thought we had higher registration fees, and that's only $165 every other year. And the state right next to me (WV) is full of people bitching that their registration went up from $21 to $51 a year.

High sales tax is the dumbest thing ever though. It's basically a handbrake on consumption, which is one of the major drivers of any economy. Income tax can collect the same amount of money without hurting your consumption nearly as much.

In MN the registration cost is based on the base value of the car and then each year after the car has been made it gets knocked down a bit. (Here is a link to the rate schedule). The minimum fee is $35 if your car is '07 and older and the max is $1,259 for a brand new car with a base value of 99,800-99,999.99 (not sure what they do for base value above? probably extrapolate?) and that is per year. It seems like a fair way to do it imo.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

-=SEND HELP=-


Pillbug

call to action posted:

America's only "low tax" if you're rich, once you combine all the regressive nickle and dime fees like car registration that costs me $500 a year on a newer Prius, the school fees for your kids, PIFs/sales taxes that apply on food and other goods that subsidize developers, the private garbage service you need to pay for now because the city one went tits up, the water bill that spirals higher and higher every month due to boomers wanting to pass the buck for repairs to younger folk, road tolls, healthcare copays, etc. we're feed and taxed out the rear end for comparatively nothing. Look at a disgusting state like WA where the rich get by completely scot-free while people who actually need to buy goods to live pay 11%+ sales taxes

The rich also probably make a lot of their money on investments, capital gains, stocks, and so forth. That stuff ends up at a lower tax rate than wages and there are all sorts of rich person fuckery they can get up to to avoid paying taxes on it. Wage earners have to deal with withholding. Dividend earners do not. Meanwhile there are ways to reinvest money that makes it tax-free so a rich person can avoid paying taxes on a lot of their income until they feel like it.

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

call to action posted:

11%+ sales taxes

And this is considered high?

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

Orange Devil posted:

And this is considered high?

Yeah, where do you live?

Twerk from Home
Jan 17, 2009

This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.

call to action posted:

Yeah, where do you live?

I'm guessing he's comparing that to VAT, which is a bit of a different animal than sales tax. For example, you don't pay VAT on used goods.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Twerk from Home posted:

I'm guessing he's comparing that to VAT, which is a bit of a different animal than sales tax. For example, you don't pay VAT on used goods.
Still, for the average European to match that rate with VAT they'd have to move roughly half their purchases to used goods - which doesn't seem particularly realistic.

SSJ_naruto_2003
Oct 12, 2012



I'd say more than 80% of my possessions are used honestly.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

ToxicSlurpee posted:

The rich also probably make a lot of their money on investments, capital gains, stocks, and so forth. That stuff ends up at a lower tax rate than wages and there are all sorts of rich person fuckery they can get up to to avoid paying taxes on it. Wage earners have to deal with withholding. Dividend earners do not. Meanwhile there are ways to reinvest money that makes it tax-free so a rich person can avoid paying taxes on a lot of their income until they feel like it.

Add to this that capital gains taxes are always flat and you have a real juicy situation. Your money, which can work for you day and night without abandon in productive investments whether you have 1 dollar or a billion is taxed according to a flat rate. Your work, of which you have a finite amount of is taxed progressively. This discrepancy, without even getting into tax planing and tax fraud is a big problem. With many western countries simultaneously abandoning wealth tax, property tax and inheritance taxes (or supplanting them with generous deductions) it's not difficult to figure out how wealth inequality is rising so rapidly.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Differentiating between income types is dumb.

Different types of income and different types of credits and deductions is 90% of tax complexity.

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Still, for the average European to match that rate with VAT they'd have to move roughly half their purchases to used goods - which doesn't seem particularly realistic.

Europeans get personally sucked off by social services 24/7 compared to Americans though

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
Trump overrules cabinet, plots global trade war: https://www.axios.com/exclusive-trump-plots-trade-wars-2450764900.html

quote:

With the political world distracted by President Trump's media wars, one of the most consequential and contentious internal debates of his presidency unfolded during a tense meeting Monday in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, administration sources tell Axios.

The outcome, with a potentially profound effect on U.S. economic and foreign policy, will be decided in coming days.

With more than 20 top officials present, including Trump and Vice President Pence, the president and a small band of America First advisers made it clear they're hell-bent on imposing tariffs — potentially in the 20% range — on steel, and likely other imports.

The penalties could eventually extend to other imports. Among those that may be considered: aluminum, semiconductors, paper, and appliances like washing machines.

One official estimated the sentiment in the room as 22 against and 3 in favor — but since one of the three is named Donald Trump, it was case closed.

No decision has been made, but the President is leaning towards imposing tariffs, despite opposition from nearly all his Cabinet.

In a plan pushed by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and backed by chief strategist Steve Bannon (not present at the meeting), trade policy director Peter Navarro and senior policy adviser Stephen Miller, the United States would impose tariffs on China and other big exporters of steel. Neither Mike Pence nor Jared Kushner weighed in either way.

Everyone else in the room, more than 75% of those present, were adamantly opposed, arguing it was bad economics and bad global politics. At one point, Trump was told his almost entire cabinet thought this was a bad idea. But everyone left the room believing the country is headed toward a major trade confrontation.

The reason, we're told: Trump's base — which drives more and more decisions, as his popularity sinks — likes the idea, and will love the fight.

The problem, according to top officials who argued strenuously that the move is ill-advised: The trade war wouldn't just affect China. The collateral damage would include a slew of allies, including Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Watch for: Trump was warned — and White House officials anticipate — that an affected industry like automakers is likely to seek a court injunction within hours of any tariffs on steel.

What do you think?

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I think he would have imposed tariffs already if he could. Like the immigration band its one of his election promises and its weird that its been stalling from any kind of implementation this long.

sitchensis
Mar 4, 2009

TBH any decision which economists hate gets a thumbs up in my books

call to action
Jun 10, 2016

by FactsAreUseless

sitchensis posted:

TBH any decision which economists hate gets a thumbs up in my books

Me too, I say this as an econ grad. Most conventional (i.e., non heterodox, non Marxist) economics is just justification for the rich to get richer.

Proud Christian Mom
Dec 20, 2006
READING COMPREHENSION IS HARD
The irony is that Trump's supporters are the ones that will be harmed the most by a trade war

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
Yeah, usually the argument goes back to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff (which is in some quarters, guess which ones) has been blamed for the Great Depression, the problem is it is also contemporaneous with a greater financial catastrophe and a nearly impotent Federal government. FDR did lower tariffs as a far of the New Deal but it is difficult to say if it made a difference especially since most countries kept their tariff laws.

Also, it isn't necessarily important how much your trading but what your balance of trade and if your internal production is actually sustainable or useful.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

I'd say more than 80% of my possessions are used honestly.
But how much of your disposable income goes to gas/food and other stuff that doesn't fall under possessions?

call to action posted:

Europeans get personally sucked off by social services 24/7 compared to Americans though
I don't know, we're including Eastern/Southern Europe here too. Eastern Europe in particular is more about getting hosed than sucked off I think.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




U.S. Trade Partners Watch Warily as Trump Considers Steel Tariffs https://nyti.ms/2tUAJxZ

More on potential steel tariffs in the times today.

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

call to action posted:

America's only "low tax" if you're rich, once you combine all the regressive nickle and dime fees like car registration that costs me $500 a year on a newer Prius, the school fees for your kids, PIFs/sales taxes that apply on food and other goods that subsidize developers, the private garbage service you need to pay for now because the city one went tits up, the water bill that spirals higher and higher every month due to boomers wanting to pass the buck for repairs to younger folk, road tolls, healthcare copays, etc. we're feed and taxed out the rear end for comparatively nothing. Look at a disgusting state like WA where the rich get by completely scot-free while people who actually need to buy goods to live pay 11%+ sales taxes

WA state is pretty weird. Politicians here keep putting income taxes on the ballot, and people keep voting them down, so regressive taxes just keep getting added and increased to make up for it. What I don't get is why they don't make a bill that introduces an income tax while simultaneously doing away with the sales tax. That might actually have a chance if voters can be decently educated. My guess is there may be something in WA State laws that prevents this, but I haven't looked into it that deeply. Either that or we just have lovely politicians which I can absolutely believe also.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Wowza, another good chart:

Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart https://nyti.ms/2uB0FLy

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

DrNutt posted:

WA state is pretty weird. Politicians here keep putting income taxes on the ballot, and people keep voting them down, so regressive taxes just keep getting added and increased to make up for it. What I don't get is why they don't make a bill that introduces an income tax while simultaneously doing away with the sales tax. That might actually have a chance if voters can be decently educated. My guess is there may be something in WA State laws that prevents this, but I haven't looked into it that deeply. Either that or we just have lovely politicians which I can absolutely believe also.

Alternatively the system is functioning exactly as intended by all actors with power: the rich get richer, the poor get hosed.

HashtagGirlboss
Jan 4, 2005

DrNutt posted:

WA state is pretty weird. Politicians here keep putting income taxes on the ballot, and people keep voting them down, so regressive taxes just keep getting added and increased to make up for it. What I don't get is why they don't make a bill that introduces an income tax while simultaneously doing away with the sales tax. That might actually have a chance if voters can be decently educated. My guess is there may be something in WA State laws that prevents this, but I haven't looked into it that deeply. Either that or we just have lovely politicians which I can absolutely believe also.

Pretty sure your guess is right. I can't see that getting passed the single topic initiative rule.

wateroverfire
Jul 3, 2010

BrandorKP posted:

Wowza, another good chart:

Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart https://nyti.ms/2uB0FLy

As always, the actual paper is worth a read. A lot of nuance is lost in the retelling.

For instance, post-tax real income for the bottom 50% of earners in the US grew from about $18,000 in 1982 to $25,000 in 2014 measured in constant 2014 dollars. That's an increase of about 39%. (source: Bottom chart of Figure 3 in the appendices of the linked paper) - the same period in which the income share going to the bottom 50% declined (source: Top chart of Figure 3 in the appendices). Standards of living went up substantially for just about everyone even though inequality rose. IMO just talking about inequality makes for a shocking article but not one that's super useful in talking about the world.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

Apparently LIBOR is fake, which Matt Taibbi thinks means that $350T of lending transactions is now fraudulent. Can anyone with more knowledge of this comment on it?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/taibbi-is-libor-crucial-financial-benchmark-a-lie-w497305

  • Locked thread