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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
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Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

My Imaginary GF posted:

If you view group housing as such "a steaming turd" for young professionals, why is it not so for gerontological individuals?

Did you just say "gerontological individuals"? On purpose?

My Imaginary GF posted:

If you turned all the interstates in San Francisco into market-rate mixed-used housing and commercial zones, you wouldn't have the pricing crunch San Fran finds itself in now.

There is very little real estate in SF used by interstates. A little bit of 280, and 101 which mostly becomes surface streets.

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Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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asdf32 posted:

If it's to pretend that you can shield voters from the influence of powerful people then you might be misguided.

That's basically tautological. "Powerful" effectively means able to influence large groups of people, directly or otherwise.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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OhFunny posted:

It finds barely 2 in 5 men born in the mid-80s grew up to earn as much, at age 30, as their father's did at the same age.

What were the numbers like for women? I didn't see anything about a gender split in the article, but I'm phone-reading.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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Oh, for some reason I thought they'd compare daughters to mothers.

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Sep 12, 2006

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Oracle posted:

Mothers didn't hold jobs outside the home in appreciable numbers until the mid-late 70s/early 80s.

Sure, does that make the comparison invalid in terms of economic mobility? It seems like it tells a story.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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That sounds like it would capture head-of-household economic mobility, but not necessarily evaluate progress women have made in terms of their own economic capability.

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Sep 12, 2006

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ohgodwhat posted:

Why does that seem insane? There's 860k doctors in the US

I feel like having 2 insurance personnel for every 3 doctors might be a sign of misallocated healthcare resources.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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ToxicSlurpee posted:

their tendency to just sit on large piles of cash.

That surprises me. I would expect it to be spent on equities, bonds, and other instruments. Are they holding cash as a hedge against the crisis we're discussing here?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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Cerebral Bore posted:

If you can provide a causal link between people being shot and rising literacy rates I'd like to see it, because as it stands now your statement is completely absurd.

Mostly shooting the illiterate?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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rscott posted:

You haven't made a case as to why this is because of globalization and not in spite of it, considering how much economic wealth is siphoned from third world counties to sit in off shore bank accounts.

How much?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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Right, but is the thesis that all of the proceeds of those resource transfers end up in offshore accounts?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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Uranium Phoenix posted:

You could at least pretend to read the article and report I linked.

I (quickly) read both. The first does not talk about what proceeds of resource transfer lands in offshore accounts. The latter also does not, though it seems to generally describe embezzlement or illegal capital movement to tax havens. Neither seems to effectively connect the dots from my question, or substantially support the claim about which I was asking.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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VitalSigns posted:

(for example, H1-B visas should not be tied to a job for a single employer)

H1-B visas can be transferred between employers. The problem is that they're tied to employment, so the transfer has to be approved before the worker quits their current job. I've done many transfers for people though, it's much easier than getting someone a new H1-B (no lottery, f.e.).

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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ToxicSlurpee posted:

Even though tech is growing the amount of money being thrown at it is absolutely absurd. People are piling massive amounts of cash on basically any startup hoping that they'll get on the ground floor of the next Google or Microsoft. Tech will do fine but tech investment is bubbling.

Global VC investment in 2016 was about a quarter lower than in 2015, fwiw. I can't find a good tracking for "tech" specifically, which isn't surprising given the fluid definition. What do you have in mind?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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I think you're talking about a smaller fraction than 1% if you're describing them as super-rich. To be in the global 1% you need about $750K net worth. This describes the top 10-15% of Americans. If that comes largely from house equity, income may be a much lower percentile. They are probably living comfortably, but I don't think they are manipulating the global financial ecosystem beyond buying index funds.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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MiddleOne posted:

If you have a net worth (you do know that net worth is the amount that assets exceed your liabilities, right?) of 750 000 then you're already rich enough to never have to work a day again in your life in any country on the globe.

Yes, I know what net worth is. Being able to generate 45K of passive income (if everything is invested and the market is friendly) doesn't seem like someone who is pulling the levers of power.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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call to action posted:

Oh wow and here I thought that affecting employment would affect wages, silly me

Is there any recent evidence that this is the case?

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Sep 12, 2006

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ToxicSlurpee posted:

There is more demand for no to low skill labor than there is supply.

Backwards?

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

It can be read either way. More demand for low or no skill jobs than there is supply, or more demand for (low to No skill) labor

The previous sentence talking about oversupply of labor makes it hard to read the other way, I think.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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call to action posted:

Maybe they should, it's not really a hypothetical that the job market in 20 years is going to be a disaster for those unlucky enough to be born with the right resources/skills/connections

"I'm just a temporarily embarrassed connected dude, so by the time my kid is grown I'll be able to help them out."

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

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Why 12-18 months?

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Sep 12, 2006

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Haven't flights to Iceland been cheap forever? What were those prices 2 years ago?

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Sep 12, 2006

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Lightning Lord posted:

Is it possible that any upcoming crisis is artificial, at least in part? Wage growth being purposely repressed as corporate policy and governments globally practicing austerity ideologically seem to greatly contribute.

When did wage growth suppression start being corporate policy? Is there a real change that was recent?

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Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Xae posted:

About 2 seconds after the first guy paid another guy to do work.

No, I mean it was presented as something that might trigger a recession, but AFAIK it's nothing new, and has been present through every economic cycle.

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