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Another factor to take into account (after reading the OP) is that Turkey, too, has a massive real state bubble going on. It's just one article, but that's the most pro-Erdogan newspaper there is, the opposition paper warned about the same things back in May. And if that wasn't enough, the political situation is, to my mind, a ticking bomb, mostly because Erdogan depends on the army to fight the kurds and the gülenists, but the army loving hates his guts because of how much he went after them. It's just that they hate the kurds more, at least for the moment. Oh and Siria and the IS are there too. Anyway how come there isn't more talk about the Deutsche bank? that's what brought me to this thread.
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Feb 11, 2016 11:27
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I dunno, so far bonds seem to point more to panic than anything else. We'll see I guess, my bet is "Two Big To Fail 2: European Bogaloo", what with financial reform in the EU after 2008 amounting to zilch. Ukle, what are those issues with DB that you didn't post about last week? Can you please give us a summary or some links? TIA 
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Feb 11, 2016 16:49
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Freezer posted:No worries, banks will be saved. Nothing a few additional rounds of austerity-fueled firings and pension cuttings can't fix. Oh, don't worry, it's not like I had any doubt. I just wonder how far do they think they can play that game. Looking at the political situation around europe, not much.
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Feb 11, 2016 17:21
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shrike82 posted:The narrative that the economy's being screwed because millenials aren't spending hasn't panned out though. I am not sure you've thought what you are saying through. Considering the high youth unemployement, I doubt that because they didn't buy a house they spend more on other things. When you don't have a job it's not just a house that you can buy.
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Feb 11, 2016 19:31
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Crashrat posted:I have no idea how anyone could stand living in a "pod"style hostel, or living in a living-room shed, for any kind of extended period. I really don't understand how it's associated with living a "less tied down lifestyle," and I especially don't understand how it automatically translates to enabling people to be able to have the time and connections to "work on their startup." I have the impression they are just trying to make a steaming turd appealing to millenials with buzzwords they think millenials will appreciate. The list of which has kindly been provided by Monomythian.
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Apr 2, 2016 11:12
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Sooooooo... The Chinese economy is slowing the gently caress down, every oil producing country is cutting expenses like crazy, banks are loaded with toxic assets, the European stress test are full of poo poo, the real state bubble in Turkey is imploding and Spain decided to absolutely stop any government expense except salaries until next year... When does it all come tumbling the gently caress down?
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Aug 10, 2016 13:24
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The Guardian had a lovely image just the other day, one of those cases of news that are better understood together. CEO compensation soars and Companies attack minimum age proposals, one right beside the other. I now regret not having taken a screenshot.
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Aug 11, 2016 09:37
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I am really amazed that the article says that hoarding cash would undermine negative rates. It doesn't seem to me like they have had any traction, so I don't understand what's there to undermine. Am I wrong on this one?
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Aug 17, 2016 08:40
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So the orthodoxy during the last couple of decades has been central bank independence from government. I see the current central bank overdrive as a reaction to a bad environment but also the logical response to the circumstances, including stupid austerity. Not defending it, mind you, I want to ask, isn't this what central banks are supposed to do, under the circumstances? And, do you guys think that they'll be blamed next time things collapse? (Meaning Tuesday)
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Oct 13, 2016 06:26
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It could lead to the fall of the überleveraged Deutsche Bank. I mean, at the end of the day, the whole point of the austericide in Greece, Spain, etc. Was to avoid disturbing the DB's house of cards. About Le Pen, her win is to my mind a given. I mean, Fillon, her most likely opponent, is racist, homofobe, russophile and wants to destroy the public sector, France's saving grace. Le Pen is just racist. I could see a large part of the French electorate not willing to vote Satan just to keep Lucifer out of power.
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Nov 26, 2016 09:50
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Italian banks are a crater in the ground and the latest rescue attempt organized by, I think, Goldman Sachs, attracted so little interest it was ridiculous. But the spin is going to be that it's the referendum's fault. Calling it now. What do you guys think are the chances Monte dei Paschi goes down, takes Deutsche with it, and then it all goes to hell?
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Dec 1, 2016 08:34
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Mozi posted:I'm probably botching this, but I think it boils down to something like DB extending billions in loans to Italian banks which are now bankrupt and if forced to realize those losses (instead of getting bailed out in a circuitous manner as happened with Greece) DB would go bankrupt as well. I was thinking of that, but also of the fact that that DB seems to be very undercapitalized (and while trying to give you a figure for that I found this and this.), and also it has a derivatives portfolio of 47 trillion USD. (For reference, Germay's GDP is 3.36 trillion USD). On the derivatives, DB's CEO has said that the fears are overblown and that it's all ok because some of those derivatives they owe and some they are owed to them. So it's all fine and dandy with those derivatives! As 2009 proved conclusively. In short: duck and cover.
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Dec 1, 2016 22:34
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shrike82 posted:MPS blowing up along with the EU is pretty good news for the US. Are you sure? What's your thought process?
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Dec 8, 2016 07:51
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I think you forget that derivatives will kill any of that, oh, and you are taking Trump at his word... Good luck with that xD
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Dec 8, 2016 08:08
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BarbarianElephant posted:Make unemployment illegal. Eh... Like in Belarus? http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4412427.ece
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Dec 14, 2016 00:17
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It will all be fun and games until Deutsche Bank implodes and takes the EU with it and China starts invading around to deflect domestic unrest. Then it will be hilarious.
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Jan 3, 2017 10:02
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^^^^ I bet it's going to be really big. The Great Depression had a second part in 1932, why would the Great Recession be less?CommieGIR posted:Hey Britain hows that Brexit going? Oh, pound hit another multi-week low? Full speed ahead? Good job. The thing is, the pound falling is kinda good for the UK. The UK was suffering a bad case of the Dutch disease, that's when one particular industry exports so much that the currency used is very much in demand, thus raising its price. This might be good for that particular industry and it certainly looks good in the news, but every other industry that exports is hosed. Usually this happens with oil, and for instance it's one big obstacle on the way of the diversification of the Russian economy. (ONE obstacle, there are many more). In the UK it was the banking industry. So many governments and rich assholes wanted to place/launder their money in the UK, so they bought pounds, so the pound raised. Great for the banks, awful for any other industry that exports. Of course, imports become more expensive. And that gives another push to local industry. I bet we will see a lot of imports substituted in the UK in the coming years. In short, a cheaper pound is probably more in line with the economic fundamentals of the countries. That it screws over the financial types is just another added bonus. Dawncloack fucked around with this message at 18:45 on Jan 9, 2017 |
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Jan 9, 2017 18:41
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CommieGIR posted:Nearly every British "Export" is owned by a foreign business. Where does it pay taxes? Where are their employees located? Edit: Let me defeat my own point here. They probably pay very little in taxes because that's EU and Tory policy for you and they probably pay their workers poverty wages.
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Jan 9, 2017 19:03
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Crowsbeak posted:So should I be concerned that I am seeing reports of downturn in recourse extraction sectors of Africa's economy while I am also seeing German Manufacturing taking a hit? You should. Also check the Baltic Dry Index. It's low as it's ever been.
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Mar 7, 2017 19:51
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MiddleOne posted:Check the index, it's been hovering between 500-1500 since 2014 and right now it's approaching a 1000 again. For comparison, last year in February it hit an all-time low at 290. Again, what am I supposed to be seeing here? A buttery pastry explained my point perfectly, that's what I meant. Am I wrong in thinking that it means trade is on the downswing? I seem to remember someone in this thread commenting that the shipping line in which they worked was going from global to regional. What do you think, though?
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Mar 7, 2017 21:48
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BrandorKP posted:Much More Rapid Climate Change I doubt, personally, the US is going to disengage. You don't increase your army massively to, then, not use it. I agree with you we are in for more than a recession. I think we are facing extinction.
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Mar 23, 2017 14:45
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So I think on the 25th of October the party congress in the PROC comes to an end, and presumably the premier will feel secure in his position, so that he can get to start a controlled demolition of the Chinese financial system. Or simple stop pretending that everything's peach. And I think that's when we should grab a drink, sit back and watch the fireworks. How off-mark do you people think I am?
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Oct 3, 2017 14:24
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I think you are right. What was I thinking? I must have been coming down with an optimism.
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Oct 31, 2017 01:29
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