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That analysis ignores the fact that new development rarely reflects the current housing stock mix. In Denver, for example, there are *far* more luxury apartments and townhomes going up than single family homes, driving up average rents while not reducing demand for lower-end housing as areas become more desirable. The "new cars vs old cars" argument also doesn't work here because, again, there are far more luxury multi-family apartments going up than anything else, and these won't magically morph into single family homes or working class housing stock any time soon. I'd also take issue with the assertion that new housing stock has "better features" in any meaningful way.
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Feb 12, 2016 22:06
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fknlo posted:Pretty sure I saw something about how vacancy rates Denver are starting to climb, so a correction in prices might be close. I saw that too, but I think the pain is going to be around for awhile as vacancies climb in luxury dwellings but remain historically low for more affordable places. Zillow predicts a 4.0% increase in rents across the metro this year, among the highest in the nation. People like to say we've got San Francisco prices and St. Louis salaries out here. It's hyperbolic, but we definitely face slightly different affordability issues than, say, the Bay Area. There simply aren't that many six figure+ jobs here.
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Feb 12, 2016 22:46
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fknlo posted:I'm actually trying to transfer out there right now with a low 6 figure job and the housing market is pretty solidly out of what I feel comfortable spending to buy. At least if I'm paying too much in rent I'm not hosed when the bubble pops and my house is now worth half of what it was.  Just kidding. I just bought a house a few months ago, but luckily it was like $230k (aka as cheap as it gets in the metro for something that's habitable and somewhat decent) so I hope I don't get hammered that hard when the bubble bursts.
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Feb 12, 2016 22:57
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Squalid posted:But luxury development often does become working class housing. I lived in a Victorian inner ring suburb full of big houses with minarets and stained glass, now inhabited by old Italians and young African American families. It's not magic and it won't happen anytime "soon," but the use of this kind of housing stock inevitably changes, even if it's hard to grasp the timescales on which these processes operate. I don't want to apologize too much for developers, unrestrained they would never provide the kind of mixed income housing known to benefit communities, but places like San Francisco must have more housing. This is a process that takes many decades, and doesn't really address the issue - housing affordability NOW, or at least in the forseeable future. quote:And there are many obvious better features you get in newer buildings. Features like no lead in the paint or pipes, or a garage. Or features like formaldehyde in the drywall, and PVC pipes instead of copper ones. New buildings are by no means always better.
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Feb 12, 2016 23:05
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