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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
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ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Sorry if this is off topic.

Since large parts of the world is still employing stimulus measures from the GFC (zero or negative interest rates, QE and/or infrastructure spending), if the wheels come off again this year, what tools do the various central bankers still have left to use? Do they have anything? Is there any economists talking about what comes next?

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ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Agronox posted:

Just to be clear, while much of the western world is still at, near, or below zero percent interest rates, QE is mixed (the US Federal Reserve stopped months ago and is letting its QE portfolio roll off), and so far as I know, no major economy with the possible exception of China is doing major infrastructure spending.


I don't think the wheels will come off, but the central bankers don't have many tools left in their box. And, really, that's okay because the solutions should be coming from the political process (Congress, parliaments, etc.) anyway. The best tool will still be increased government spending, although it is for some reason anathema to large segments of the population.

If there's a true deflation scare, I'm curious if we'd see the really heterodox policies come out--for instance, direct monetization of government spending by newly printed money.

Canada is starting some infrastructure spending as well. While most (all?) of Europe is still busy making things worse via austerity.

I listed it more as an orthodox reaction to an economic downturn, less of what is currently happening.

I agree that the challenges coming need to be tackled by our duly elected officials, but those policies are unlikely to be formulated by those bodies for technical proficiency and ideological reasons.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
That guy certainly needs a two story box, or a rancher box in a sitting room, if he wants to attract the ladies.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Perhaps if he wrote the prospectus for Monte dei Paschi he could actually save the European banking sectors.

Alas

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