2016 Economic Crisis Thread - Duck and Cover?

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2016 Economic Crisis Thread - Duck and Cover?

Will the global economy implode in 2016?
	We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
	My private security guards will shoot the paupers
	We'll be good or at least coast along
	I have no earthly clue

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A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

ToxicSlurpee posted:

One of the big contradictions of it all is that poo poo is only going to get worse until governments start running into the banks and cracking heads.

"My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw banks forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

# ¿ Jan 21, 2016 23:19

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 16:02

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

My Imaginary GF posted:

America is eternal. Luxembourg? One hundred years ago, they didn't exist.

Luxembourg was reestablished two hundred years ago.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 00:01

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

My Imaginary GF posted:

Hundred years ago, what was the currency they used in Luxembourg?

The Luxembourgish franc, though it along with several other currencies was part of Latin Monetary Union, which was based around a bimetallic standard. Politically it was part of the German Zollverein, as it had been for decades. If you're referring to the war, then Imperial Germany distinguishes itself from Nazi Germany by allowing Luxembourg to maintain an independent domestic political scene, even if its foreign policy was obviously guided by a German hand, where the country was treated as a German province during WWII.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 08:34

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Bip Roberts posted:

Besides the UK which ones had remotely continuous governance?

Denmark, and Sweden after it threw us out.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 08:57

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

icantfindaname posted:

Sweden and Norway only date to 1810, and Denmark only to 1848

Okay, what is your definition of continuous governance? Sure, absolutism was abolished in 1848, but it's not like this meant full suffrage or anything like that. It was essentially just an evolution of the fact that no absolute ruler actually ruled absolutely, a formal change which invited further gradual reforms. Like, two decades later you still only had 14% of the population being able to vote. Denmark as a nation state I would place in 1864, as the country was involuntarily divested of any ambiguously-Danish (as many Schleswigers sort of viewed themselves as neither German nor Danish, and at the same time both) peoples that remained and redefined the Danish state as being the state for ethnic Danes. A nation state is not the same as a state though. No revolution has toppled a Danish government, and we've had a continuous succession of kings stretching back to 1340 (The Danish territory having been split in two by two counts between 1332 and 1340), which I would definitely views as continuous. Is it all about the constitution for you? Because clearly then the UK isn't even a state yet.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 09:41

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

My Imaginary GF posted:

Pretty certain there weren't no government in Germany for a few years during and after the war, chief. There was occupation.

Who is talking about Germany????

My Imaginary GF posted:

While no internal revolt has toppled your little kingdom, the Nazis certainly toppled it quite easily. Unless you don't count a state's obligation to protect all of its citizens as including Jews.

0.65% of Danish Jews died, part of the roughly 8% the Danish state and people failed to evacuate before the Germans got them. The ones who were captured were sent to the Theresienstadt concentration (not extermination) camp, where the Danish government pressured the German government into allowing the Red Cross access, which likely ensured the further survival of many of the captured Danish Jews, as the deaths in Theresienstadt were mostly among the elderly.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 14:30

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

icantfindaname posted:

Basically governments need to implement fiscal policy to fix it, stuff like stimulus and actual laws. But that's not gonna happen, at least in the US, so well

Look dude, if this is you attitude about the US, what does that means for its retarded brother the EU??

Agronox posted:

Goddamn it can we have one current events econ thread, I beg you

Nazis are always relevant to economy threads, since they're the justification for economic policy in Germany, and thus the EU as a whole. Plus we're going to have a bunch of Nazis in power in Europe too, and rewritten constitutions, so it's all real relevant. Seriously though, sorry. Guess MIGF's trolling got to me this time, I think I just got annoyed for him spouting stupid poo poo about history for the second time today.

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 21:24

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Ardennes posted:

I see the future crisis a long, slow and very stubborn recession, and when growth happens afterward it very well be extremely borderline (and likely continually revised downward).

In the future, everyone will have access to sandwich-price prostitutes.

e: No one will be able to afford them though.

A Buttery Pastry fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Jan 31, 2016

# ¿ Jan 31, 2016 22:03

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Cicero posted:

"I don't care if we already know of a sensible solution, we need the problem to disappear TODAY!"

A solution that's "Wait literally decades" is not really a solution, is it? Especially when you consider continually growing populations. If luxury apartments becoming regular affordable apartments (+ construction of the latter) doesn't happen faster than the growth of the portion of the population who demand these affordable apartments, then the issue won't ever actually go away. And even if population growth is outpaced by the creation of affordable homes, the fact that the population is growing will still delay supply matching demand in a manner that's not economically crippling for many people.

# ¿ Feb 13, 2016 11:31

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

icantfindaname posted:

There simply aren't enough of these elite jobs for an appreciable number of people to do.

Wouldn't be very elite if there were.

# ¿ Aug 11, 2016 19:31

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

Why are Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark running higher negative interest rates than the Eurozone?

If I recall (and understand) correctly, the Danish interest rate was lowered in 2012 as a response to currency speculation, specifically the bet that the Danish krone would be forced to unpeg from the Euro. Presumably, maintaining it at a lower level than the Eurozone is seen as a necessary precaution against future currency speculation.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2016 17:40

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Inferior Third Season posted:

It is not so much that anyone thought they would unpeg the krone from the Euro, but the fact that Denmark unilaterally could unpeg whenever they feel like it makes it a strictly better store of value to large investors, and thus can have lower rates to reflect this difference. In addition, there are fewer physical DKK in the world than Euros, making cash hording even more difficult, and therefore lower negative rates more possible.

That sounds like a different conclusion than most of the articles I can find (and what we've been told in the media over the last few years), but then those aren't always the most reliable. Do you have a link to a more thorough explanation?

# ¿ Aug 19, 2016 05:18

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Inferior Third Season posted:

I can only phone post for now, so it's a bit difficult to search for sources, but I do recall a blog post from Krugman from a few years ago that compared the interest rates of Finland and Denmark. They are quite similar economies in nearly all respects, except that Finland is on the Euro while Denmark has the krone which they've pegged to the Euro (but could decide at any time to allow it to float, if they want). The differences in interest rates could therefore be considered to be attributable to Denmark's ability to "exit" the Euro at will, while Finland could not. Just the ability, and not necessarily an expectation of actually doing it, was sufficient.

This was around the time that nominal interest rates first started going negative, and everyone was questioning whether such a thing could last for any significant length of time.

I think I found it, because your explanation perfectly mirrors his. I think I get it now. Thanks.

# ¿ Aug 19, 2016 17:51

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

MiddleOne posted:

Mostly worse for the world. The EU could probably be fine it wasn't so busy circling the drain with austerity.

Yeah, the general rule seems to be that the US has a counter-cyclical effect going for it, as people move their money to safer environments during a recession. Trump and friends would basically have to be undermine trust in America's economy to the point that the US was no longer seen as a (relatively) safe haven for money during a recession, for this to not be true.

# ¿ Nov 17, 2016 17:12

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Le Pen + Italy will be two negatives becoming a positive, as Le Pen realizes that rather than simply abandoning the EU, the French can oust the Germans as leaders and remake the EU as an extension of French power. 35-hour workweek for all.

# ¿ Nov 26, 2016 10:21

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

RandomPauI posted:

What are the odds that Trump has the US Govt bail out Duetchebank and them "forgiving" all his loans once he's out of office?

You mean giving him a controlling interest?

# ¿ Dec 2, 2016 06:50

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Freezer posted:

Meanwhile, US stock markets hit another all time high. There's something weird going on here.

When ~~countries~~ banks poo poo themselves, people come running for the safest investments; the US. Even if the banks in question are in the US.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2016 22:25

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

cheese posted:

What percentage of "health care" jobs are actually related to the insurance industry? It can't be very high.

IIRC, it's around half a million jobs total.

# ¿ Jan 2, 2017 08:01

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

VitalSigns posted:

If those houses were total losses anyway maybe it would have been smart to do everything we could to keep people in their homes so they could contribute to the economy and maybe make some payments down the line rather than throw families out on the street just so we could own unsellable ruins, huh.

Can't allow that, would be a creating a clear moral hazard.

# ¿ Jan 2, 2017 20:49

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Orange Devil posted:

Capitalism is a woefully inefficient economic system for improving human lives. Though I will concede it is better than slavery and feudalism.

Well, we'll see where global warming takes us.

# ¿ Jan 8, 2017 15:47

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

call to action posted:

Yeah but, like most humans on earth, I don't really care about how trade has lifted the world up. I care about my family's prosperity, which trade has diminished the prospects of. Notice how your analysis focuses almost entirely on "countries", as if the wealth distribution in most countries isn't incredibly imbalanced.

Yeah, that is pretty much the issue. Moving the production of consumer goods out of a country might lower the cost of those consumer goods, but if the people who used to hold those jobs can't find another job that pays as well, then it just results in them having less money to pay for their mortgage/rent/groceries, and even less left over to be able to buy those now cheaper consumer goods. Which goes back to the split in the Democratic party between the traditional working class and urban professionals, since the latter mostly sees the cheaper consumer goods.

# ¿ Jan 11, 2017 16:33

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Sundae posted:

How loving detached from sanity do you have to be to have the gall to say your own kids shouldn't get the life you had?

It's good that they've abandoned the sin of nepotism.

# ¿ Jan 23, 2017 20:15

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

shrike82 posted:

It would help if people like Helsing clarified what exactly they're railing against. The tirades about capitalism, globalisation, and neoliberalism are pretty meaningless when you see them shifting goal posts depending on what's advantageous to their argument e.g. China as good versus Russia because they did not 'liberalize' whatever that means, and then on the other hand argue that China is worse off because they have adopted capitalist/market practice.

Those statements are easily reconciled by reading them as "China did well compared to Russia because it didn't liberalize as fast, but it could have done better by liberalizing even slower or not at all."

# ¿ Feb 1, 2017 06:25

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Helsing posted:

Nah, I've never suggested that "China is worse off because they have adopted capitalist/market practice." Quite the opposite, as I said upthread, I think China's development obviously wouldn't have proceeded at the same pace without access to foreign capital and markets. My point is that China's development hardly vindicates neoliberal economic theories given how much China diverges from their commendations. Russia followed a lot of those suggestions much more closely and suffered for it.

I was just replying to shrike82's post, but the first part of my post is pretty much what you just said. Russia followed the suggestions to the letter (liberalizing their economy so quickly that it collapsed into an oligarchy), while China took a more measured pace which allowed them to take advantage of foreign capital and markets without the disruption. I mean, you say it yourself; what gave China a boost was access to foreign capital and markets, not their politics - even if they had to adopt them to a limited degree to unlock that access.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2017 07:09

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

MiddleOne posted:

I'm not getting what you're implying here.

Companies aren't shipping that much stuff at the moment, indicating that the economy isn't in a great state?

# ¿ Mar 7, 2017 20:21

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

MiddleOne posted:

Check the index, it's been hovering between 500-1500 since 2014 and right now it's approaching a 1000 again. For comparison, last year in February it hit an all-time low at 290. Again, what am I supposed to be seeing here?

You aren't looking that far back. Where it's hovering now is around the floor it reached when the financial crisis hit, it has been significantly higher than that both before and after. (Though going even further back they return to somewhere around that floor again.) Didn't people mention earlier in the thread that some shipping companies probably won't be able to keep going at these prices?

# ¿ Mar 7, 2017 21:21

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

icantfindaname posted:

What other countries are there in the first world? The UK's and Canada's economies have not done better than America's, Australia's has but only because it's a mining and commodoties rentier state, Japan is Japan, .... Maybe Sweden has registered better growth? That's about it

Sweden isn't even first world, so it doesn't count.

# ¿ Apr 9, 2017 19:59

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Lote posted:

Are you defining it as "Third World" because it isn't part of the NATO or NATO aligned countries nor is it part of the former Soviet Bloc?

Yes. The reasons for them being part of the "Third World" still apply to this day, and with the Cold War starting up again the original meaning of the term should take precedence over the '90s meaning of the word.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2017 07:55

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Condiv posted:

this is the future of labor, everyone as 1090 wage slaves.too bad the dems did literally nothing about it, cause now the repubs are gonna accelerate the loss of benefits

I'm pretty sure the democrats helped.

# ¿ Apr 14, 2017 14:54

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Twerk from Home posted:

I'm guessing he's comparing that to VAT, which is a bit of a different animal than sales tax. For example, you don't pay VAT on used goods.

Still, for the average European to match that rate with VAT they'd have to move roughly half their purchases to used goods - which doesn't seem particularly realistic.

# ¿ Jun 30, 2017 17:23

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# ¿ Apr 27, 2024 16:02

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

I'd say more than 80% of my possessions are used honestly.

But how much of your disposable income goes to gas/food and other stuff that doesn't fall under possessions?

call to action posted:

Europeans get personally sucked off by social services 24/7 compared to Americans though

I don't know, we're including Eastern/Southern Europe here too. Eastern Europe in particular is more about getting hosed than sucked off I think.

# ¿ Jun 30, 2017 21:07

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > 2016 Economic Crisis Thread - Duck and Cover?