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http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/house-flipping-skyrockets-sparks-concern-over-housing-bubble-n530866quote:House flipping - buying and reselling a home to make a quick buck - has risen in some hot housing markets, prompting concerns that local housing bubbles could be developing, according to a report published on Thursday. I see we've learned nothing.
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Mar 6, 2016 21:18
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Of the concerns listed in the OP. It looks to me like the most immediate danger 11 months later is the collapse of the Italian financial sector.
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Nov 26, 2016 08:25
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Rated PG-34 posted:This compounded with the lack of recovery from 2008 spells trouble. Apparently people joked to Hillary that it's good she didn't get elected as this downturn would be on her and potentially catastrophic. Indeed. Official unemployment for November was announced today to be 4.6%, but factor in underemployment and those who've stopped for work and the rate is 9.3%.
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Dec 2, 2016 19:37
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Raldikuk posted:Their third largest bank is struggling to raise 5bn euros? jfc The situation becomes worst when you find out two things: 1. Under new EU laws a bank's creditors must take losses before a government can step in with the public's money to save it. 2. 45% of all Italian banking debt is held by average Italians. A year ago Italy stepped in to rescue some of it's smaller banks under the EU rules and 130,000 shareholders and bondholders lost everything. An elderly pensioner killed himself after losing his life savings. There was outrage, so Renzi asked the EU to wave the rules for Italy, but was rebuffed by Merkal and the EU. With a government solution politically untenable. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is now trying to raise the money itself. I'd like to note that the $5.3 billion attempting to be raised is 10 times that of the bank's current market capitalization of $590 million and it's bad loans total $30 billion. $2.15 billion is held by the average Italian. The problem is clear to see. If a deal to raise private money falls through then it looks like the European Central Bank will step in. Guarantee full repayment of the first 100,000 to every junior bondholder. Senior bonds and deposits left untouched. Pen off the $28 billion bad loans to a securitization vehicle supported by a government guarantee. The other Italian banks also need to raise capital though, if no wants to invest private money into Monte dei Paschi, who would want to with the others? Except the public's money. Like Dead Cosmonaut said, they're trying to avoid the public noticing how bad the situation is, but if people do notice and panic that their money isn't safe and a bank run occurs then we're in for a bad time.
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Dec 5, 2016 21:41
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It appears efforts to raise private money have failed. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's board has sent a letter to the European Central Bank asking for an extension to mid-January to raise the 5 billion it needs. If the ECB refuses than Italy will precede with a "bail in" in a few days. Rome is arguing that due to calm markets that the extension should be granted.
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Dec 7, 2016 22:16
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Earlier today I read shrike82's post and decided not to reply to it. A moment ago I saw a bunch of new posts and thought something significant had happened and people were discussing it. Turns out other people read shrike82's post and decided to reply. I'd prefer if we can share and comment on the developments of the various structural issues facing national economies as we see them unfold instead of raising to troll bait like fish to a lure. I'm disappointed in you thread.
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Dec 8, 2016 07:34
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And there was also groverhaus. When Grover's do-it-yourself home renovation was so bad it got it's own SAclopedia entry and smilie  but back on topic: Upward mobility has fallen greatly and income inequality has surged.
I don't see the Trump Administration reversing this. The planned tax cuts would likely widen it even more. Interesting move from the European Central Bank. It will extend it's bond-buying program to December 2017, but drop the amount from 80 to 60 billion starting April 2017. Seems to be trying to walk the tightrope between the Germans fearing inflation and Southern Europeans fearing deflation.
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Dec 9, 2016 03:00
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Subjunctive posted:What were the numbers like for women? I didn't see anything about a gender split in the article, but I'm phone-reading. Page 15. End of Section IV: quote:When comparing childrens family incomes to their parents family incomes as in our baseline analysis, we find similar declines in absolute mobility for sons and daughters (Figure S10). However, the patterns differ by gender when we focus on individual earnings. As noted above, sons chances of earning more than their fathers fell steeply, from 95% in 1940 to 41% in 1984, underscoring the sharp decline in the economic prospects of American men. In contrast, the fraction of daughters earning more than their fathers fell from 43% for the 1940 birth cohort to 22% in 1960, and then rose slightly to 26% in 1984. The pattern for womens individual earnings differs because of the rise in female labor force participation rates and earnings over the period we study (Figure S11). In sum, the subgroup analysis shows that declines in absolute mobility have been a systematic, widespread phenomenon throughout the United States since 1940.
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Dec 9, 2016 04:20
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OhFunny posted:It appears efforts to raise private money have failed. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's board has sent a letter to the European Central Bank asking for an extension to mid-January to raise the 5 billion it needs. The European Central Bank has rejected Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's request for more time to raise private money. The bank's board should be meeting soon to request a bailout. The real question now is how Italy goes about it. Does Rome follow EU rules and wipe out the savings of small time investors? Fueling anti-EU and strengthening anti-EU parties? Or attempt to shield them? Defying EU rules and undercutting the union. I don't see any good options. UniCredit, Italy's largest bank, will announce being attempting to raise 13 billion starting Tuesday. I don't see them getting it.
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Dec 9, 2016 19:46
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Horseshoe theory posted:How's Intesa Sanpaolo doing? All I could find was a chart showing that of it's loans 15.7% are bad. http://www.businessinsider.com/statistics-non-performing-loans-npls-italy-banking-system-2016-11?r=UK&IR=T
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Dec 10, 2016 05:16
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Depending on how this plays out we may have to scratch low oil prices off the OP list. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have come to an agreement to slash production by 1.8 million barrels produced per day. Saudi Arabia has stated it may cut production even more than it's agreed too. Although there's speculation that, like most times, some nations (especially Russia) will not cut back or cut back less than agreed. At the moment though the news has oil prices up 20% from Nov 30. Analysts predict it will take a year for the US and other Shale producers to pick up production enough to offset the cut back. Bank of Americas Blanch forecast $70 by mid-2017.
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Dec 12, 2016 05:46
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A few things I've been reading about : 1. Monte Paschi I think we've pretty much covered the various scenarios that can occur with Monte Paschi, but recall how earlier in the thread when Mozi said it takes some time for people to notice just how bad things might be? It appears people (or rather investors) have noticed and are pulling their money out. Monte Paschi's deposits lost 6 billion worth of euros between September 30 and December 13. 2 billion since a December 4 referendum. The government stepping in I think is all but certain. 2. American credit card debt reaches all time high. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Credit underlines our economic system. You buy with credit and then pay later. What concerns me is that the high amount of credit card debt per household, almost $8,000, suggests that our growth is being fueled by credit instead of income. Unemployment is low, but part-time jobs and stagnant wages means credit is supplementing low incomes. Defaults are low at 2.86%, but I think it's something to watch. 3. Stock Market and US economy Interesting talk from David Rosenburg. He points out that for the first half of the year that US GPD growth was essentially flat at 1%. It was stronger in the 3rd quarter, but estimates from UBS, JP Morgen, etc for 4th quarter growth are below 2%. The return of higher rates and more traditional monetary policy from the Fed signals slower 1st quarter growth in 2017. Trump sending plan (if it happens) won't kick in until the later half of 2017 and is way everyone is talking about stronger US growth.
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Dec 18, 2016 02:22
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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/20/trump-to-oversee-fiscal-bloodbath-instead-of-prosperity-says-reagan-omb-director.html Interesting talk from David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan, on CNBC. Arguing that Trump has no room to grow the economy since things are at highs right now and that the market is delusional about a Reagan 2.0 grow. Also pointing over that the fight over repealing the ACA is going take months of time and that the debt ceiling is going back into place in March. That the tax reform will be a neutral swap that doesn't put money into the economy. Seems to think there'll be a showdown over amount of debt added over the infrastructure bill from the more fiscal Republicans. Thoughts? I for one am wondering when the bubble is gonna burst on Wall Street's dream of there's going to be a massive economic boost from Trump's economic policy.
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Jan 22, 2017 23:07
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Raenir Salazar posted:If the markets crash and we have another recession/depression happening, what happens if Trump orders the GOP to pull a China and close markets/make it illegal to sell/deny reality etc? That would be total chaos. People and investors would panic.
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Jan 25, 2017 01:19
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/26/trump-calls-for-20-tax-on-mexican-imports-to-pay-for-border-wall The trade war with Mexico is a go.
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Jan 27, 2017 01:08
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It's been pointed out elsewhere that the United States imports a lot of food from Mexico. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/a-mexican-border-tax-would-hit-avocados-chili-peppers-beer
Thinking about it Trump could impose a 15% tariff via executive order by declaring an emergency any flimsy exucse (Mexico's trade with us is a disaster!) and spike food prices.
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Jan 27, 2017 03:57
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ToxicSlurpee posted:Probably the bigger snag is going to be education. The American education system is already a dumpster fire and the GOP loathes public funding in schools. It'll be great for the rich if the "all private, all the time" thing goes in but it's going to suck for the rest of us. That's also going to dick over America as a whole overall in the very long term. You'll have fewer college graduates, fewer people graduating high school with the numeracy required for modern jobs, and an overall lower education level. That means fewer engineers, fewer programmers, fewer doctors, fewer mathematicians, etc. Less funding for colleges means less pure science getting done which is going to cause America to lag behind especially given the right's tendency to reject any science that disagrees with their beliefs. It'll be like the Nazis getting screwed over for rejecting "Jewish science" all over again. This is also going to utterly dick over America if it gets into yet another war as well. An unhealthy population that can't see doctors and can't afford enough food doesn't generate good soldiers. Similarly a badly education population can't generate better gear than the enemy especially considering that the military industrial complex only cares about shoveling money into the pockets of people who own the contractors. Deregulation leading to shoddy, dirty products will cause worse innovation in the private sector in general and good that can't compete internationally. The part I highlighted is already a huge problem. Only about a quarter of Americans 18-26 years old meet the US military's fitness standards. I'm sure we'll lower them to the floor again like we did when we invaded Iraq and people stopped signing up, but the quality of the average soldier will be worse.
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Feb 1, 2017 02:08
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https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-28/ryan-said-to-forge-unexpected-alliance-with-bannon-on-border-taxquote:The proposed border-adjustment plan would tax U.S. companies domestic sales and imports at a new 20 percent rate, while exempting their exports. The change -- which would replace the existing 35 percent tax on companies global income -- would encourage companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and reverse the tide of corporate tax inversions, Ryan says. Can't wait to read about this next to Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. God the trade and currency war this would cause. edit: Just saw this too: https://twitter.com/ReutersPolitics/status/837144192631570432 quote:"Unlike earlier presidents, Trump is signaling a willingness to impose import restrictions -- especially against a country like China -- where the justification under WTO rules for doing so may be highly questionable," said Chad Bown, a senior fellow and trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Christ. He's going to tear apart the whole international trade system down. OhFunny fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Mar 2, 2017 |
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Mar 2, 2017 04:47
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Atlanta Feds Q1 GDP Now Estimate Falls to Just 0.8% That doesn't look good. Even worst when federal workers become unemployed if the proposed cuts to the various federal departments go through.
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Mar 16, 2017 03:55
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BrandorKP posted:G20 just dropped its commitment to free trade. and we inch that much closer to a trade war.
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Mar 19, 2017 07:22
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Stocks had their worst day in 6 months. Looks like they may have snapped out of their Trump Dreams, but I guess we'll see what's what soon. https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/844247587653914625 https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/844278449019801600
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Mar 21, 2017 21:05
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Oh right. The border tax is a go btw. Retail is already under heavy stress. This will probably push the bankruptcies forward. Border tax has become a 'given,' chief GOP tax writer says quote:A border adjustment tax will probably make an appearance in the final tax reform plan, the Republicans' chief tax writer in the House of Representatives, Rep. Kevin Brady, told CNBC on Tuesday.
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Mar 21, 2017 21:21
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BrandorKP posted:I'm hearing anecdotally from sales guys on the bulk side that there is about a 50% chance China "slams the door" on grain in retaliation if it happens. Have heard the same about Mexico. I'd say with Mexico that's more than an anecdote. The plans are being laid already. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/mexican-companies-craft-plan-to-sidestep-u-s-grain-imports quote:One of Mexicos largest business groups is working on a bargaining chip ahead of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement: finding alternatives to the U.S. for grain imports. quote:Switching suppliers isnt as easy as flipping a switch. Mexico depends heavily on rail for imports from the U.S. and Canada, which wouldnt work for goods from South America. But Mexicos ports could handle imports from the south, and the benefits would outweigh the costs, Castanon said.
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Mar 22, 2017 03:28
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Zyklon B Zombie posted:Can anyone else in the world even pick up the slack off the sheer volume of food exports that the United States produces? I was under the impression that the US was one of the few countries that had a huge surplus of food. When it comes to corn the answer is no. The US exports more than 2.5x the amount than the 2nd largest exporter.
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Mar 22, 2017 19:34
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Double posting, but subprime credit losses in the auto loan market are worsening. http://www.businessinsider.com/fitch-on-auto-loan-market-2017-3/#the-subprime-auto-loan-delinquency-rate-is-moving-higher-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/mizuho-on-subprime-auto-lending-conditions-2017-3 http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ford-stock-price-march-20-2017-3-1001851020 Ford looks to be very exposed due to it's high levels of financing. quote:The number of Americans who have stopped paying their car loans appears to be increasing a development that has the potential to send ripple effects through the US economy. quote:The 60+ day delinquency rate for subprime is closing in on the 6% mark, and is the highest in at least seven years. quote:"The data suggest some notable deterioration in the performance of subprime auto loans," Fed researchers said in a post. "This translates into a large number of households, with roughly six million individuals at least ninety days late on their auto loan payments."
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Mar 22, 2017 21:04
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Rated PG-34 posted:what are the odds that if ford is toppled by risky lending, they'll get bailed out 100%. Any of the Big Three going under would a massive blow to the economy. They are to big to fail. Twerk from Home posted:They're not going to get toppled, because cash is available for the company to do corporate debt. The automakers got in trouble before because of a liquidity crunch, and right now corporate lending is still easy. You are probably right, but it's another sign that this economic expansion is nearing its end.
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Mar 23, 2017 02:47
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https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/850433023929614338 Economy not looking strong.
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Apr 8, 2017 17:18
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