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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
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ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

BrandorKP posted:

I would say that in many lower level jobs they are just looking for bodies. Desired attributes in some cases is basically just "not a felon". Often the felons they fire for not disclosing are some of thier better workers. At the lowest level, they see all workers as interchangeable. I don't think it's a question of getting the best for the least, they only care about the least part. They can't even be arsed to be exploitive effectively.

That's something that I think a lot of people forget; right now there is a severe scarcity of Brad Pitt so he can name drat near any price he wants. For the types of jobs that require three or more working limbs and a pulse with the first being negotiable there's an over supply of labor. There is more demand for no to low skill labor than there is supply. You can train pretty much any dumbass with working hands how to unload a truck and sort freight.

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ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

I mean that there are more no to low skill people looking for jobs than there are jobs for them. Hence so many people working part time for minimum wage with bugger all else. Hell even educated people can't find enough work in America right now.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Rex-Goliath posted:

It should be noted that despite all this US production is only down ~20% over half a century. Certainly a noticeable decrease but it's not dying by any stretch of the imagination.

If memory serves it's because Chinese steel has often been kind of "meh" in that they just wanted to make more steel, quality and type be damned, while American manufacturers would often make more specialized/better steel. "Steel" is a pretty complex set of goods. Some of it in America was also vertical integration. If your car/tool/widget company also owns the steel company that you can totally, absolutely control the steel that comes out of it. "Buy steel from China" may or may not get you what you need.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Zeno-25 posted:

It would be poetic justice for all the blue collar folks who voted for Trump in the rust belt, really.

Not really. They already don't have jobs. The only way to make life in the Rust Belt worse would be to enact harsher drug laws, cut welfare, and end free lunch programs.

Oh wait...

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug
Let's give the rich more money for them to hoard. I'm sure that'll help this time.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Confounding Factor posted:

Would you argue that much of that employment growth has only expanded the precariat class with more permatemp contract and part-time work for fewer benefits and at less wages before the crisis? Also too the gig economy has grown.

This recovery is a house of cards.

Pretty much all of the actual growth in the recovery also went to the rich.

Overall there's been a recovery but very few people are benefiting from it.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

SSJ_naruto_2003 posted:

The rich get richer has been a pretty solid trend for the last 50 years.

Historically that can only go on so long before the pitchforks and torches come out.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Senor P. posted:

How are silver and copper useless? Copper is pretty much the de-facto material used for the conducting part of wires used to move electricity. Silver is used extensively in semi-conductors.

If things truly went to poo poo, I don't think silver would be that useful in a day to day sense. However, copper could still see a lot of use. (Pipes for drinking water in a post-plastic world.)

There is also a 2000 year of history of using copper, silver, and gold as currency. Paper money has been around for... 300-400 years?

It's not that they're useless it's that you can't eat copper.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Anubis posted:

Those have always existed. No payments till next year has always been super common when they're clearing off last year's models. Some dealers just figured out that they can basically offer the same thing before they cut prices in September and make out better.

Most people actually don't qualify for the things that car adverts promise anyway. Car dealerships are universally scammy as hell. That whole "no payments for six months! 0 money down! >1% interest!" only happens if you have pristine credit which of course most of us don't.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

FourLeaf posted:

The Atlantic recently posted an article about how the AHCA could lead to an economic recession by cutting thousands of jobs in the healthcare sector. How likely is it that a recession would occur? I consider the Atlantic a generally reliable source, but it just seems so insanely suicidal to me that the GOP would do this so I'm holding out some desperate hope.

(Also: Can we change the year in the thread title?)

Cutting a poo poo load of healthcare jobs like that would in fact be a bad thing but it isn't the AHCA itself that is going to cause a recession. It's the fact that the GOP is in charge that will.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Cicero posted:

Similarly, there can't be another recession, as goons pointed out in many threads, this last one was the one that finally death spiralled and destroyed capitalism.

I think we're still pretty strongly in that recession to be honest. We've seen some recovery but that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet. Recovery from the Great Depression started 3 years after it hit but it lasted a decade easily.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Cicero posted:

There are still some major economic issues obviously, like rural towns basically dying, hollowing out of the middle class, labor force participation slowly trending downwards, etc. but having issues != being in a recession. GDP hasn't decreased in a long time, and the unemployment rate is very healthy.

Underemployment is still rampant and there are like three years ever where productivity didn't increase. Growth is pretty "meh" right now and all those things you mentioned make our economy absolute garbage for most Americans.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

Lightning Lord posted:

Is it possible that any upcoming crisis is artificial, at least in part? Wage growth being purposely repressed as corporate policy and governments globally practicing austerity ideologically seem to greatly contribute.

If it's artificial then somebody is deliberately causing a recession to cause a recession. That isn't what's going to happen; what will happen is short-sighted decisions from the rich and powerful doing those things you mentioned for no reason other than short term profits. That's all that matters; higher profits every quarter, more money for the billionaires right loving now. Demand is what drives an economy and the 99% being able to loving buy things is what drives demand. A rich guy throwing bigger and bigger numbers into the Cayman Islands where they are never seen again generates gently caress all when it comes to demand.

This is why there are indicators if you know where to look; the flight cost is one of them. There are certain things that get hit first when people start feeling a financial crunch. People are obviously not going to quit buying food but they'll travel less, eat out less often, tip worse, etc. You can't totally predict a recession on that but those can be good indicators. Excessive debt is another one and all I have to say about that one is "student debt." A recession is coming if nobody bothers trying to head it off.

ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

sitchensis posted:

FWIW, I was reading these forums around 2007 or so and goons were very saavy at seeing the signs of the impending sub-prime mortgage catastrophe that eventually led to the 2008 GFC. Much more so than any mainstream economic coverage that was, like today, breathlessly reporting how amazing everything was.

I feel as though the big catalyst for the next recession will be the continued collapse of retail.

The collapse of retail is a symptom not a disease.

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ToxicSlurpee
Nov 5, 2003

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Pillbug

call to action posted:

America's only "low tax" if you're rich, once you combine all the regressive nickle and dime fees like car registration that costs me $500 a year on a newer Prius, the school fees for your kids, PIFs/sales taxes that apply on food and other goods that subsidize developers, the private garbage service you need to pay for now because the city one went tits up, the water bill that spirals higher and higher every month due to boomers wanting to pass the buck for repairs to younger folk, road tolls, healthcare copays, etc. we're feed and taxed out the rear end for comparatively nothing. Look at a disgusting state like WA where the rich get by completely scot-free while people who actually need to buy goods to live pay 11%+ sales taxes

The rich also probably make a lot of their money on investments, capital gains, stocks, and so forth. That stuff ends up at a lower tax rate than wages and there are all sorts of rich person fuckery they can get up to to avoid paying taxes on it. Wage earners have to deal with withholding. Dividend earners do not. Meanwhile there are ways to reinvest money that makes it tax-free so a rich person can avoid paying taxes on a lot of their income until they feel like it.

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