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Will the global economy implode in 2016?
We're hosed - I have stocked up on canned goods
My private security guards will shoot the paupers
We'll be good or at least coast along
I have no earthly clue
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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

disjoe posted:

Insurance companies at least theoretically are incentivized to work to lower healthcare costs, but they're not incentivized to pass those costs on to consumers.

The (very) slow adoption of bundled payments is a good example of insurers taking steps to reduce costs. But like most innovations in that area, Medicare and Medicaid lead the way.

Insurers pushed for bundled payments since forever.

Providers refused to go along with it because they axiomatically refuse anything Payers want.

Also because until the last decade or so most payers were still using paper systems. For the same reason: "Insurers want us to use computers. So that must be bad for us. Lets try to administer billions of dollars using paper".

Helsing posted:

Obamacare utterly fails to address this problem for much of the population. It's a lottery system where the quality of your care is dependent on where you live, and it leaves the most dysfunctional parts of the system untouched while downloading all the costs onto middle class consumers. Your insinuation that it's basically just as good as single payer is idiotic and even most of it's liberal defenders will admit the system was far from ideal.

The biggest problem with Obama care is that too many people are still on Employer based plans. Killing them is the first step towards fixing the system.

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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Subjunctive posted:

I feel like having 2 insurance personnel for every 3 doctors might be a sign of misallocated healthcare resources.

And how many dentists, dental technicians, nurses, home case assistants and other Providers are there?

The number is North of 5 million.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

tekz posted:

Is this some sort of 'make it so miserable for everyone that there's a massive push for UHC' accelerationist plan?

By pushing more people into the individual market you lower the overall cost per person of the pool.

Plus it means that you can pick a plan and a Payer that has the Providers you want to see.

Plus it helps make the Payers accountable. Right now Payers can piss off Members nilly willy and it just don't matter. As long as the VP of HR is happy they keep the account.


Plus it stops hiding the up to 80% of the cost that the employer picks up that people don't see. A ton of people just see the $20-150 a pay period and think that is how much insurance costs. They aren't seeing the hundreds of dollars the employer is kicking in (tax free).

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Helsing posted:

I live in a country with universal healthcare but at the moment something I'm doing for work involves researching available insurance plans for small businesses / individuals and it's loving nightmarish. Health insurance is not the kind of thing that lends itself to market mechanisms, from what I've been told I gather research on how people pick between options in situations like this shows that even savvy and well educated professional types usually tend to choose plans based on arbitrary features like which option is listed first. This just isn't an area where market mechanisms operate well and trying to force a market solution merely worsens outcomes.

The solution here is to expand medicare to cover everyone and then to start addressing the massive rent-seeking that lobbyist control of Washington has enabled. Trying to fine-tune the Rube-Golderberg machine that is the American medical insurance system is just a set-up for more failure. And that's without even getting into how totally politically unfeasible your plan is. Medicare for all is a long-shot but it's at least plausible you could sell Americans on switching into plan that most people are already familiar with. I think there'd be blood in the streets if you told people you were taking away their employer insurance plans and replacing it with whatever crapifeid options the Obamacare exchanges have left on offer.

The plans employers provide are subject to the same rules and regulations that the individual market is. My employer offers High Deductible health plans on Bronze, Silver and Gold which are nearly identical to what I can get in the exchange. The only difference is the ~$500 subsidy my employer provides.

Medicare for all is a joke of a plan. Literally no one in the industry takes it seriously. Unless you want to put every provider in the country out of business overnight.

The key problem with American healthcare is that the care is too expensive, but people don't talk about how to get costs down, they talk about how to pay for it.

Medicare for all or no the cost of providing healthcare is increasing faster than any payer plan can handle. If left unchecked it will be 30% of our total economy in less than 15 years.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

ToxicSlurpee posted:

Frequently the plans are utterly misleading as well. At work we had an HR guy come around and show us the math on the plans. Turns out the most expensive one loving sucked and the cheapest one with the highest out of pocket maximum was actually the best deal, especially if something catastrophic happened to you.

The difference wasn't small, either; the "best" one was like $150 a month. The cheapest is $13.

At a number crunching and actuarial level the high-end plans can be proven to make your care worse. You are more likely to be over tested and over treated if the providers think it isn't going to cost you anything. You end up paying more for worse outcomes.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Helsing posted:

Wow, the industry that benefits the most from an extremely inefficient system is full of people who don't think the system should be abandoned. I'm shocked.


Switching to a universal public system would be a massive cost saver and have the added benefit of freeing up economic resources that could be used more effectively elsewhere.

Feel free to address the point that Medicare reimburses at or below cost and shifting the entire population to it would put providers out of business instead of attempting to deflect.

Medicare's costs are rising almost as fast as Private Insurers costs. If you bother to inform yourself you will find that Medicare is driving a portion of the Private Sector costs because over time their payment schedule has been forced from slightly above cost to slightly below cost. This forces the private sector to subsidize Medicare. Medicaid is even worse and is very far below cost, the additional costs are again pushed to the private sector.

The second factor driving private premiums up faster is that they aren't crippled with a retarded congress. They're trying to prepare for future cost increases. Congress is intentionally letting those build up for Medicare to cause the system to fail. You'll notice that they idea of increasing the revenue from the payroll tax that funds Medicare is never discussed, only how benefits should be cut.

Medicare's cost savings would mainly be administrative, and those are debatable, and would do nothing to prevent the long term cost of care increases.

Even if you waved a magic wand and removed 100% of Payer cost and Profit you only drop 2-3 years worth of Medical inflation. Since healthcare wasn't affordable back in '14-15 you don't end up fixing anything.

The price providers are charging is constantly increasing and the quantity of services demanded is constantly increasing. People always focus on the payer side because they love to beat up on insurance companies. Yet they aren't driving the cost. The providers are.

Xae fucked around with this message at 04:53 on Jan 4, 2017

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Aliquid posted:

Yes you idiot. Healthcare is a right and should not be for-profit. I literally want health insurance companies to go out of business. Hospitals will be fine.

Provider = Hospital

Payer = Insurer


If you're going to flame someone you should at least get a loving clue.

When you say to a Hospital "I'm going to pay you at or below cost for everything" they go out of business. No organization can sustain a deficit forever. This isn't a hard concept.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Helsing posted:

I'm sure that you also oppose the implementation of any kind of labour saving technology or international trade that potentially displaces workers as well. This is certainly not special pleading on behalf of your specific industry. After all, it's not as though the rest of the first world has managed to provide comparable or superior healthcare outcomes with lower spending through single payer systems.

That is a non-sequitur if I ever saw one. Automation and Labor savings has gently caress all to do with the current clusterfuck.

quote:

What I really find interesting about this post is that from the beginning I've been very obviously focused on how prohibitively costly health care is for actual people, and yet you literally cannot conceive of anyone being concerned about anything except cost inflation. Here's a headline: the lack of adequate care and the financial burden the current system is placing on people is a far bigger issue than cost.
And here is the backstory:
Healthcare wasn't always unaffordable. It became unaffordable due to medical inflation. It has been sitting there growing at 7-10% a year for decades. The inflation has to be stopped because 7-10% growth is just not sustainable under any payer system.

quote:

The United States is at the epicenter of the wealthiest and most powerful global civilization that has ever existed. It is completely capable of providing decent and affordable healthcare to its population. Switching to a public system modeled on the Canadian single-payer insurance model or even the British system would save a lot of money that is wasted on administrative overhead in the current highly inefficient system.
It isn't just "administrative overhead". Look up OECD figures for things like MRI per capita or procedures per capita. Right now the USA performs almost twice as many MRIs per person as the UK (55/107). The US performs dramatically more procedures per person than places like the UK. Simply changing the payer system does nothing to address that.

quote:

As far as reducing costs there are many options and all they require is the political will to implement them. Hey, I'm just spitballing here but perhaps it's time to let medical professionals enjoy the same stimulating blast of free trade that manufacturing workers have been enjoying since the 1980s. Crack down on unnecessary medical procedures, take a harder line in negotiations, purge the lobbyist parasites, and perhaps if the doctors kicks up a fuss bring in Chinese and Indian doctors to undercut their wages.
See these are good ideas because they address the core problem: The cost of providing care. Paying for care is ultimately secondary if it is affordable in the first place. Cracking down on the tech arms race is a huge one too. Hospitals are getting into dick measuring contests over technology and patients are demanding the latest and greatest things, particularly in imaging, even if they don't need it. You don't need a state of the art MRI scan for a routine broken bone, but you'll probably get one in the USA.

quote:


Like any disruptive economic or regulatory change some people would stand to benefit and others would stand to lose, but in this case it would clearly be a net gain. I personally would like to see a much stronger safety net and an economic policy geared around ensuring people get and keep high wage jobs, even if they have to transition from industry to industry. But insofar as some economic disruption is necessary and inevitable I think it's loving hilarious when some neoliberal shithead singing the praises of the American healthcare system suddenly starts crying over job losses.


It's one of those examples of a historically arbitrary and path-dependent outcome that sort of made sense in the past (though even then it left a lot to be desired) and which now can literally only be justified by appealing to how disruptive it would be to change it. Even this thread's resident apologist cannot quite bring themselves to argue that the system is working fine -- all they seem capable of doing is insinuating that somehow any change would make it worse.

Just nationalizing the payers is literally the dumbest thing you can do. It is the one thing worse than doing nothing. Because the only thing that happens is shifting a cost that is growing uncontrollably onto the public books. With no cost control and at the current growth rates Medical Care will be 30% of the US economy in 10 years. It is projected to start to drop in ~15 years due to "natural demographic changes". It will be something like 40-45% of the US economy at its height.

Single Payer is a lovely hill to die on in the United States. CO, a blue state, put single payer on the ballot in 2016. It lost by 80 points. There are plenty of countries that have non-single payer systems that work well. Implementing a system that mimics one of those is a winnable fight that can improve people's lives.

And as a side note, Medicare isn't the panacea everyone who doesn't have it thinks it is. Its claims get denied much more than private insurers do. It is just that when they get denied the provider fixes the problem and resubmits to medicare instead of trying to bill the patient. I spent my last couple of years in the industry dealing with the Re-submission poo poo. If I hammered home one thing it was that providers are loving poo poo at paperwork. We had a project that was billed as this miraculous RULES ENGINE (tm) that could determine if a providers claim would get rejected. It was just a bunch of stupid poo poo "Hey, if you diagnose a broken left arm make sure the treatment is coded for treating a broken left arm. Not a broken right arm or a broken left leg. ". One of the smarter things Obamacare did was mandate the ICD10 changeover, which hopefully kills off all these lovely homegrown coding systems hospitals used then tried to transcribe to ICD9.

Xae fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Jan 4, 2017

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

The Insect Court posted:

Gladly. The point is wrong because if Medicare reimbursed below "cost"(which is usually vaguely and arbitrarily defined by people who make this argument) is wrong, because if it were true then providers would not contract with Medicare.

Hospitals are not being forced at gunpoint to accept Medicare patients by jack-booted statist thugs, like in some Paulite fantasy. Nor are hospital administrators all idiots who decided that it's ok if they lose money with every patient because they'll make it up on volume.

21% of doctors are no longer accepting new Medicare patients. 3% Do not accept any Medicare patients.

http://kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/primary-care-physicians-accepting-medicare-a-snapshot/

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

ToxicSlurpee posted:

When I hosed up my knee the first time the bone doctor I went to was a super friendly guy with a pretty thick Southern accent. When he heard that my primary care doctor ordered an MRI for it he pretty bluntly said "if you were ever wondering why medicine is so drat expensive in America that's why. $5,000 for an MRI or $50 for an X-ray. 95% of the time I can tell you what's wrong with either of them. Which would you rather pay for?" I later came to find out that the doctor I was seeing at the time just did MRIs for basically everything that was wrong with you.

I quit seeing that doctor. MRIs are good and cool for diagnosing certain things but they don't need to be done every single time you go to the doctor.

The other thing is that you aren't just getting an MRI, you're probably getting some crazy rear end fancy poo poo with 100x the resolution needed.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120545569

TL;DR in Japan they have price controls for imaging. So even though they have a ton of MRI machines they are mid range work horses that are still good enough for 99% of uses. In the US every hospital wants a research grade one for the 1 in a million patient that needs a super high tech one.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

cheese posted:

Can you really not loving comprehend that if every single American were covered under Medicare, that this would enable us to have significant leverage to negotiate lower rates for a wide variety of services, procedures and medications? Your argument is literally "Single payer would not matter because costs would be the same" when half of the loving point is that single payer gives you a strangle hold over costs. Costs are not fixed. They are not chiseled in the stone of the loving Lincoln Memorial.

Medicare doesn't negotiate prices. It sets procedure prices by a formula and it is legally forbidden from negotiating drug prices.

You're not describing Medicare for All, you're describing a new program.

Xae fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jan 8, 2017

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Dr. Fishopolis posted:


edit: I'm actually shocked that you would even present neonatal infant care as a case for cost inflation when we have a worse infant mortality rate than loving Slovakia.

Countries use differing definitions of live birth and viable birth.

The USA uses the broadest definition. Many second and third world countries use more narrow versions.

The WHO did a study on this in '06 and concluded that until everyone is using the same set of criteria it is impossible to compare across countries accurately.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

Oh I see. So, America just has a different definition of "baby" than every other country, which is why by every measure and report it only seems to have a horrifying infant mortality rate. When in fact, we have the best babies, really the most amazing number of deaths per 1,000 live births. Everyone says that, they say "America has a really incredible rate of baby death". That's what they say, it's really incredible. The best.

edit: Did you know the WHO actually studies and publishes data on infant mortality rates? In fact, they have a whole page on the methodology and sources for their infant mortality data. Funny stuff to publish for an organization that "concluded" a decade ago that it's an inaccurate metric.
Child mortality != Infant mortality.

quote:

The legal requirements for registration of fetal deaths and live births vary between and even
within countries. WHO recommends that, if possible, all fetuses and infants weighing at least
500 g at birth, whether alive or dead, should be included in the statistics. The inclusion in national
statistics of fetuses and infants weighing between 500 g and 1000 g is recommended both because
of its inherent value and because it improves the coverage of reporting at 1000 g and over. For
international comparison, 1000 g and/or 28 weeks gestation is recommended.
Evaluation of reporting of early deaths has shown that we may be underestimating perinatal deaths
in many countries. It is likely that the decision whether to classify a delivery long before term as a
spontaneous abortion or as a birth, which must be registered, may be affected by the circumstances
in which the birth occurred and by the cultural and religious backgrounds of the people making the
decision, as described for the past (15). For example, a stillbirth at 22 weeks of gestation must be
registered as such: at 21 weeks and six days, registration is not required.
Underestimates associated with maternal death in high-mortality settings may be as high as 5% for
stillbirths and 3% for neonatal deaths. These estimates are based on Egyptian survey data for 1993
and 2000 (18,19).
Developed-country historical data suggest that, as smaller and sicker babies survive, an increasing
number of small babies are registered. The extent to which this affects mortality rates is difficult to
assess (15).
Given these differences in recording the fact of death, it is not surprising that there are even greater
differences in the way in which causes of stillbirths and neonatal deaths are recorded. One of the
objectives of this report is to stimulate interest in improving the quality of reporting and clinical
diagnosis of causes of perinatal death.


http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/43444

The TL;DR is that the US record almost all births, even premature births, as live births.

Many countries classify premature or non viable births as either stillbirths or spontaneous abortions.

While the WHO has a definition they would like everyone to follow many developing countries do not use it.

Xae fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Jan 9, 2017

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

Are you arguing that the ranking data from the CDC and the WHO itself is incorrect? Both data sets show the United States around 30th down the list of developed countries for infant mortality.

If it is incorrect, by how much and why exactly? If the WHO knows the data is inaccurate because of a reporting discrepency, do they take that into account when they publish their rankings? If not, why not, and why isn't that mentioned in the otherwise extremely verbose and complete dataset? If the WHO does correct for it, why does their data correlate so closely with the CDC?

Moreover, why do you want to dismiss this metric out of hand? Even if the data is as flawed as you claim, the countries above us on the list are not "developing" in any sense of the word. They are Finland, Japan, Portugal, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Norway, Korea, Spain, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Belgium, etc. All of which spend infinitely less than we do on healthcare, all of which inarguably let fewer babies die.

Most of that information is in my quote. The rest of it is in the document.

I'm not your secretary. It isn't my job to do your homework. It is your job to inform yourself, preferably before spew bullshit all over the place.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

According to the document you've linked, the WHO does in fact apply their corrections to the country rankings they publish. And guess what? It tracks almost identically with the data that the CDC publishes.

You're the one claiming that all the published data is wrong, and that the United States infant mortality rate is better than all the research seems to indicate. Where do you think it should rank instead, and why?

Reread it.

The report corrects for missing data, aggregation mismatch and countries using different formulas.

It explicitly calls out that it did not adjust for live/still born definition differences.

It also says because of that not to use the data to compare different countries

Dr. Fishopolis posted:

Well, this deepens the well. Why the gently caress does America have nearly twice as many preterm births as the UK?


Obesity is currently the largest known factor, but it doesn't account for all differences. Lack of pre-natal care is another issue, but the USA has higher premature birth rate even with people getting pre-natal care. And since this is 'murica there is also a racial discrepancy as well.

The first studies aren't expected for a couple more years. Working through the differences in how countries collect stats and define terms has slowed the research. Until those come out it is anyone's guess. Or anyone's blank screen to project what they want it to be.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

Companies moving operations out of China into the poorer Southeast Asian countries to save money has been going on for years now

Some of the companies are planning on jumping right to automation instead of seeking cheaper labor.

Foxconn, of iPhone game, plan on replacing something like 100,000 workers in China with robots. We're at the point where near slave labor is still more expensive than robots.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

sitchensis posted:

FWIW, I was reading these forums around 2007 or so and goons were very saavy at seeing the signs of the impending sub-prime mortgage catastrophe that eventually led to the 2008 GFC. Much more so than any mainstream economic coverage that was, like today, breathlessly reporting how amazing everything was.

I feel as though the big catalyst for the next recession will be the continued collapse of retail.

We're about due for another recession. The test will be if it is just a normal one or another "Great Recession".

Housing is in a pretty unique position to gently caress the global financial system.

Subjunctive posted:

When did wage growth suppression start being corporate policy? Is there a real change that was recent?


About 2 seconds after the first guy paid another guy to do work.

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Xae
Jan 19, 2005

Differentiating between income types is dumb.

Different types of income and different types of credits and deductions is 90% of tax complexity.

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