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ocrumsprug posted:Sorry if this is off topic. Just to be clear, while much of the western world is still at, near, or below zero percent interest rates, QE is mixed (the US Federal Reserve stopped months ago and is letting its QE portfolio roll off), and so far as I know, no major economy with the possible exception of China is doing major infrastructure spending. quote:if the wheels come off again this year, what tools do the various central bankers still have left to use? Do they have anything? Is there any economists talking about what comes next? I don't think the wheels will come off, but the central bankers don't have many tools left in their box. And, really, that's okay because the solutions should be coming from the political process (Congress, parliaments, etc.) anyway. The best tool will still be increased government spending, although it is for some reason anathema to large segments of the population. If there's a true deflation scare, I'm curious if we'd see the really heterodox policies come out--for instance, direct monetization of government spending by newly printed money.
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Jan 31, 2016 17:52
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Ardennes posted:I assume a return to QE and negative interest rates are possible (if not likely) the question if it will make much of a difference, and to be honest it probably won't. It may help stabilize a downturn to some extent but you need fiscal stimulus. Agree that fiscal policies should do the heavy lifting. I also think--though I have little to back this up with other than intuition--that while skidding around at nearly zero percent is okay, actually going negative is going to be, on the net, ineffective or even counterproductive.
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Jan 31, 2016 18:21
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Goddamn it can we have one current events econ thread, I beg you
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Jan 31, 2016 21:01
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Junior G-man posted:So that would potentially make them as safe and not-dodgy as all those AAA-rated MBS and derivates of those before 2008 then? Uh, you're misunderstanding. A) these are used to help fund the bank, as opposed to something the bank purchased and whose blowup would endanger it (like MBS and CDOs did nine years ago). B) there is not a gigantic market for these (as opposed to the trillions in RMBS that was out there) C) they certainly don't trade as if they were incredibly safe. Investors in CoCos knew what they were getting into. And if they do end up converting, it won't be the end of the world.
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Feb 11, 2016 16:36
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Past a certain point permabears begin to resemble Travis Bickle yearning for a hard rain to wash the scum from the streets.
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Feb 11, 2016 22:42
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readingatwork posted:Honestly I'd settle for micro-apartments becoming more of a thing in the US. It's not really a matter of taste. They're outright banned in many jurisdictions.
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Feb 12, 2016 02:33
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