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Dawncloack posted:Anyway how come there isn't more talk about the Deutsche bank? that's what brought me to this thread. As its probably over the heads of most posters here. Honestly stinks of Lehman all over again, very similar setup as well and exactly the same kind of noises; got another dodgy debt instrument that is slightly related to the issues as well, really is 2008 déjà vu. Its not just Deutsche in a bad position, its many banks in Europe and the US, just Deutsche were kind of in trouble already with struggling to generate new business weakening their position and with the Asia markets going tits up, which it is very exposed to, and it really doesn't look good. Assume this time it wont go the way of Lehman's though and the Germans will be forced to bail it out even though it will costs them short term maybe 100 Billion euros.
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Feb 11, 2016 15:53
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Junior G-man posted:And that was necessary or helpful why? That wasn't a snipe, it was explaining why there wasn't any discussion on the topic as most people on here wont read the FT, work in finance, etc. Deutsche's issue isn't one that's going to cause it to go out of business though its just a liquidity issue worst case its broken up ala Lehmans, it only needs a relatively negligible amount to be raised over the year to keep its ratio in legal levels - hence why a German bailout is possible. Would be very similar to what the UK did with RBS, a bank of similar size.
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Feb 11, 2016 16:07
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Junior G-man posted:Maybe you mean well, but this sounds incredibly pedantic. As if reading the FT endows you with supreme financial intelligence. Can you please take a step back, I really think you are misinterpreting what I am writing. Its not pedantic its just Deutche's issues have not been discussed outside financial circles as until Mondays statement from Deutsche it was an issue not reported by the mainstream press. I even wrote a post on this subject last week even before Monday's statement as this has been brewing for a while, but decided not to post it as it was just not something people were aware of so thought wouldn't get any discussion. As to the fallout from the German's bailing out Deutsche, its not far off being priced into their share price, which is significantly below their 2009 levels. Other banking stocks have been falling for the past 6 months, especially banks with Chinese exposure, its kind of seen as a given that at least one of them will need assistance. Also Deutsche Bank needing assistance wont cause a bank run, that was proven in the 2007-2009 crisis - the only time there was a bank run is when there was no assistance given (Northern Rock).
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Feb 11, 2016 16:34
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