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Seems reasonable to me, I don't think anyone who's not neck-deep in the SV tech circlejerk bubble seriously believes that VR headsets or the App Economy is going to bring about economic and societal transformations as fundamental as heavy industry, electrification and chemical engineeringfoobardog posted:Logistics has seriously improved greatly since 1940, which while seeming like a difference in degree, becomes a difference in kind as it becomes available to more and more "average" people. This causes much quicker delivery of goods, and often opens up small businesses to near global reach. And when the payload is digital, it has become insanely accessible. I would say the transformations wrought by the internet have already 'hit' though, you're not going to see massive increases in digital information going forwards I didn't even click your link and I was going to make a post about anime. Great minds think alike I suppose icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jan 27, 2016 |
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Jan 27, 2016 04:00
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crabcakes66 posted:Yeah the 50 million jobs and trillions of dollars of global economic activity it generates sure are nothing. It also fits neatly under the 'stuff that's already happened' category
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Jan 27, 2016 04:06
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LogisticEarth posted:The problem with saying "much of the progress since 1950 has been a refinement of old ideas" is that, that's basically been true for every period of human civilization at some point. It's an ongoing process. There's a whole host of ideas out there that could radically change society. From nano-materials, which could be bigger than the widespread use of plastics, to AI, to space-based technologies, and genetically engineered chickens laying pharmaceutically-enhanced eggs. When/if these bear fruit and are economically mundane by 2050, you'll have people looking back and going "well this was refining tech developed in the 1990's, it's not actually new. Ideas are less important than the structural societal and economic changes that accompany those ideas. Leonardo da Vinci came up the idea of airplanes and tanks in the 1400s, but that ultimately didn't have any effect on society. As Krugman says in literally the first lines of his review popular culture has imagined all sorts of ideas of what the future would be like but they didn't happen. Many of them are even technically possible but simply not economically feasible I don't know if the implications of this are that awful but it's a very compelling point I think and saying 'boy you'll look stupid when we invent flying cars and sentinent AIs' almost misses the entire point of the book icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Jan 27, 2016 |
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Jan 27, 2016 04:43
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ReadyToHuman posted:Is GDP a sufficient quantification to measure the change in people's quality of life ? Yes You realize Paul Krugman, the guy who wrote the article in the OP, is a liberal, right?
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Jan 31, 2016 00:35
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