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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
I think the concept of payment itself is one ignored. Credit Cards were sort of in use in the 1940s but they were typically limited and on a store only basis. The idea of a payment system other than cash that just works anywhere (more or less) is pretty revolutionary. Especially if it allows you to remove the headache of making sure you have available funds at any given time.

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

trucutru posted:

It does introduce the headache of not having available funds to pay the interest in the future. To be fair is is like a time machine for your (future) headache.

If you pay everything with a card, you get one bill that you can pay off, and (like you said) you don't even need to pay it all off at once, though you do incur interest. That's still better than "oh I need groceries but I don't get paid until friday and I don't have the cash now".

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

trucutru posted:

This is not precisely a new problem, you know. I am pretty sure it was solved in the past, it just took a bit longer. You also knew the person who was going to break your legs if you didn't pay personally. Nowadays it is much less personal.

It was solved with checks, which are cumbersome and easier to fake.

I'm not even talking about cheating the mob owned bodega, I just mean that a grocer or whoever just wouldn't sell you food.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

MikeCrotch posted:


However there is one area where we actually are regressing - antibiotics. Antibiotic resistance is a huge problem and it's only getting bigger, to the point where in the next 5-10 years we are going to have diseases that are totally incurable by antibiotics. Basically in some cases we are going to be back where we were before the discovery of penicillin.


Nope, because the thing about anti-biotic resistance is that it requires many more resources than the normal bacteria. Once the environmental pressures are relieved (i.e., people say "oh poo poo these antibiotics won't work anymore) then the anti-biotic resistant bacteria will be outbred.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

ReadyToHuman posted:

increased automation producing more leisure time rather than just putting people out of work,

The only difference here is the amount of unemployment benefits.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Inferior Third Season posted:

The real question is whether any of these new technologies are sustainable economic powerhouses that can match the long-term and short-term growth from earlier technological progress. Clearly, the internet allows for greater economic activity, but I think it's easy to make the case that it doesn't have nearly as dramatic an effect as the proliferation of electricity in the 19th century or widespread adoption of the combustion engine.

Basically, the global economy has been injected with nitro boosters periodically over the past 150 years, and people now think that is the natural speed. However, as far as we can tell, there are no more boosters left. And there was a shitload of inequality and poverty and war during the good times, so who the hell knows how bad it could get now that the good times might be winding down.

The huge caveat here that you're not mentioning is that proliferation of those technologies are not universal. It's really hard to get a grasp on the effects of the internet when a decade ago, most of China didn't have it.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
I would think GPS alone has been a massive change in the way people do things.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Cicero posted:

A very common problem I've seen on these boards with evaluating technological innovation is that when an innovation is first created, it hasn't spread yet and thus has minimal impact, and by the time it's spread and has clearly made a big impact, it's 'in the past' and doesn't count as a current innovation anymore. Basically it's nearly impossible to evaluate how impactful cutting edge innovations are, because cutting edge means they're recent and haven't had time to do much.

Yeah, and I think that's actually a consequence of the modern mindset. Like the first modern automobile was made in 1897, but it wasn't until about 15 years later that Ford started doing his assembly line, and even then it still took a lot of time before cars were really ubiquitous.

That's roughly the same timeline as mobile phones today*, but people think that very little has changed in that interval.


*At least for phones that are smaller than this:

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

HorseLord posted:

This is the stupidest proposition ever.

In the 1970s, designing something as simple as a cylinder head could take you days just to draw the blueprint. If you made a mistake, say forgetting to take part of it's intended shape into account when drawing it from some sides, you would have to start over. Then you would have to wait maybe a month for the machine shop guys to grind you one. Then you would test it. If it did not work as expected, you would have to quite literally go back to the drawing board. Because of this, the sheer cost of developing replacements meant that passenger cars were using only slightly modified engines from the 1950s and 60s (Ford windsor, Chevy small block, A-series etc) into the 1990s.

This was true of literally everything. Integrated circuits were done on paper. Crash safety was developed by people throwing cars off cliffs and going "oh well, I guess we'll do better when we replace this model in 5 years".

It's now 2016. We have extremely fast computers with bitmapped displays everywhere, even in children's bedrooms. Engineers can design and run test simulations of hundreds of iterations of their projects without going further away from their desks than the coffee machine. Every few years engines are obsoleted, because the rate of development is so high. 35MPG has gone from average to incredibly poor over the past fifteen years as Ford just shat out a 125hp/l engine the size of a pencil sharpener. I now, for some reason, own a machine that runs UNIX. That's a mainframe operating system used by scientists. This machine fits in my jeans pocket and I use it as a camera because a real camera would cost more money.

Technology is not declining. For it to decline we would have to go backwards, we would have to trade our LCD tvs for CRTs, replace our gas boilers with coal fires. Technological decline is a loving stupid thing to suggest is happening. Our technological development isn't even stagnating. It's massively accelerating.

Oh yeah, the large advances in quality control is another major shift in the past 50-60 years.

Back in the day they didn't "make things better", they just hoped and prayed that they could catch all of the defective ones before they left the factory. These days you can have fine tuned control over your manufacturing process and make it so that even though there are defects, they're extremely minimal (in the single digit parts per million or billion range).

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

1st AD posted:

I use a GPS watch not to find out where I need to go, but to track my pace, elevation change, and map my routes while I'm running. It can be done without the aid of all this technology, but boy does the technology make the data collection idiot proof.

That's another thing too - it seems like people are mainly concerned about the first product that can do x, rather than the first product that lets you do x easily.

Right now you can tell an app your relevant factors, and let it use GPS to determine the speed and length of your run, and have it calculate the estimated calories expended. You could do all of that (with the proper books, maps, etc) in previous decades, but not nearly as quickly or easily.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Main Paineframe posted:

Those aren't technological changes, though. Those are social, economic, or engineering changes. For example, widespread availability of wireless broadband-speed internet is why YouTube exists now and not two decades ago when watching a video meant downloading a blurry 2MB RealMedia clip the size of a postage stamp. But broadband was around then, and so were both wireless networking and internet over cellphone signals - the reason it's widely available now and not then is because of decades of infrastructural investments and cost reductions, not because of some big technological breakthrough. Those investments and improvements are absolutely very significant, sure, but the question of the thread was about technological change. The fact that it takes time, refinement, and infrastructure for new technologies to go mainstream doesn't really make the results of that iteration into new technological discoveries in their own right.

Cost reductions are very much technological changes because they often involve different processes. Your definition of new technology seems to be "something that's never done before", but that's hilariously reductive.

The difference between broadband 20 years ago and now, for example, is roughly equivalent to the difference between lead-acid batteries and the battery in your mobile phone. To call them the same technology is disingenuous.

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computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Uncle Jam posted:

I think people are still missing the original point and arguing only one leg of support that the original author presented, basically a retrospective of technology. Giving one or two specific examples doesn't really show that economic growth will continue as it has been.


Nothing will show that, and it's boring to try to discuss that.

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