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I think people are still missing the original point and arguing only one leg of support that the original author presented, basically a retrospective of technology. Giving one or two specific examples doesn't really show that economic growth will continue as it has been. I really hate these cherry picked futurology graphs. - It seems more of a function of size of the object than decade of invention. Radio has a similar slope to more 'late-model' inventions. - The slopes of techs that take a long time to adopt don't suddenly accelerate in later decades (or even just push as a linear trend), continue to follow the slow down at the asymptote - 2005 is picked where it looks like computer has a downturn, and lol VCRs (though I dunno when this was made) - No large-form techs are selected for the recent inventions, like home PV or EV charging stations. People really champion that information can be found anytime now with smartphones, but Home PV means you can turn your private home into an electricity producer, which is also bad rear end yet I doubt the adoption slope is very steep. Another tech I'd like to see is home sumps. - Another cause of the uptick of slopes in the later half of the graph may be due to the overall increase of the US economy after WWII relative the world. If you had the worldwide adoption of these things, it would be seriously different. Clothes dryers are still really rare in many developed countries.
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Jan 31, 2016 16:54
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computer parts posted:Nothing will show that, and it's boring to try to discuss that. It's more interesting than 'there's no progress!' 'No way, my phone screen is huge now!'
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Feb 1, 2016 00:53
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I think they don't even know if quantum computing in the way that gives speed up is even possible yet.
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Feb 1, 2016 23:04
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