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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Welcome to the inaugural Irish Politics Thread wherein we will discuss Irish Politics



:siren:ELECTION ALERT: THERE'S AN ELECTION COMING ANY DAY NOW BOYS. DATE EXPECTED TO BE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW (02/02). It's probably going to be February 25th:siren:

The Basics
The Republic of Ireland is a bicameral parliamentary republic with a ceremonial president. Elections to the lower house, the Dáil Éireann, are carried out using PR-STV to elect 166 158 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) from 40 multi-member constituencies. Voters rank candidates in order of preference, a threshold is calculated based on the number of votes cast, any candidate above this threshold on first preference votes immediately wins one of the available seats. The surplus of votes the candidate received (all votes counted after the candidate met the threshold) are then redistributed to their next preference. If no candidate has still met the threshold the candidate with the lowest count is eliminated and their votes re-distributed based on the next marked preference. This process is repeated until either all seats are filled by candidates crossing the threshold or the number of remaining candidates equals the number of available seats. You do not have to indicate a preference for all candidates and can vote for a single candidate if that's your bag but sure why would you.

The upper house, the Seanad Éireann or Senate, is elected using a system of ancient arcane magics divined through communion with the ghosts of the fallen martyrs of Ireland and only those educated in the black arts of government truly understand it. Here is a simple diagram explaining the process:


Coalitionology
No election has returned a single party majority government in Ireland since 1977 and since 1989 coalition governments have been the norm. The head of government is the Taoiseach, a post usually reserved for the head of the largest party in a given coalition. The deputy prime minister, the Tánaiste, has been drawn from both the largest party and junior coalition parties depending on the size of the other parties within a coalition - a handful of seats to prop up one of the big lads usually won't get you a Tánaiste spot but if you have some serious numbers it's usually given out as deference to the junior party. Irish coalitions have a tendency to collapse in acrimonious back-biting.

Here is what the Dáil currently looks like:


The Government


Fine Gael: The traditional second party of Irish politics found themselves sweeped into power with a commanding victory in the 2011 election as voters angered by the bursting of the property bubble, the bank bail-out and persistent allegations of corruption and cronyism turfed out Fianna Fáil. However if you where looking for a drastic change in policy FG might not have been the best choice - they have continued the austerity politics of their predecessors and have spun themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility. Centre-right in outlook, they are hybrid of christian democracy and liberal conservatism.
Leader: Enda Kenny (the current Taoiseach)
European affiliation: EPP


Labour: The other major established party in Irish politics, the Labour party where founded in 1912 and have historically tended to be more moderate than other European Labour parties. Full on Social Democrats now a days they also had a bumper result in 2011 (their best ever) and subsequently formed a coalition government with FG - their traditional coalition partners. Perhaps not the best idea as the subsequent austerity policies have enraged their supporters and they look like they will be facing massive losses at the upcoming elections, they where wiped out in the 2014 European parliament election forcing then leader Eamon Gilmore to resign.
Leader: Joan Burton (current Tánaiste)
European affiliation: PES

The Opposition


Fianna Fáil: Ah, Fianna Fáil. Once the dominating force in Irish politics, they where in power for 61 of 79 years since their first election victory in 1932. Reduced to a staggering corpse by the 2011 election FF have been slowly rebuilding their tarnished reputation with some moderate success. Politically pinning them down has always been tricky; broadly populist, centre right economically (though they insist they are a bit to the left), conservative socially with a dollop of republicanism thrown in. Also hilariously corrupt. I mean like buying private islands corrupt.
Leader:Micheál Martin
European affiliation: ALDE - Though they only joined cause they couldn't get into the EPP and their only MEP was kicked out of the party after defecting to the ECR


Sinn Féin: Sure everyone knows Sinn Féin don't they. SF as they currently exist originating in a split in the party in 1970 when more explicitly socialist elements moved to end the parties long-standing policy of not sitting in the Dáil, a change in policy that brought to a head tensions within the party relating to the handling of the Troubles. The pro-abstentionism faction is Sinn Féin as we know it today, formerly a political force largely isolated to Northern Ireland who have expanded considerably since 1998. Left-wing nationalist, republican, populist, socialist of some fashion (this leads to very heated arguments).
Leader: Gerry Adams
European Affiliation: GUE/NGL


Anti Austerity Alliance - People Before Profit: Workers of the world unite! Again! In the 2011 election the various small socialist parties in Ireland united as an electoral alliance that, surprise surprise, collapsed amid mutual recrimination in 2013. They've decided to have another go at it with the major players being the Anti Austerity Alliance, dominated by the Socialist Party, and People Before Profit, dominated by the Socialist Workers Party. They are hoping to see good gains based on their strong representation in popular protests against the much hated water charges. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. A bunch of trots!
Leader: It's a collective


:siren: NEW PARTY :siren: Renua: What happens when you get kicked out of Fine Gael for being too conservative? Well you form your own party of course! Renua where only formed last year and have never stood in an election. Their election manifesto calls on a flat tax and a full life sentence for burglars. Horrible.
Leader: Lucinda Creighton


:siren:NEW PARTY :siren: The Social Democrats: Another new party this time formed by a Labour minister who resigned the party whip, and two independent TDs (one a veteran of the Workers Party, the other a bit of a policy boffin). Very excited about Nordic Social Democracy, they haven't ruled out forming a government with FG - the party for people who think Labour have gone to far to the right but think SF/AAA-PBP are too far to the left.
Leaders: Catherine Murphy, Róisín Shortall, Stephen Donnelly


:siren:NEW PARTY UH SOMETHING :siren: Independent Alliance: An alliance of independents formed by a bunch of TDs trying to leverage themselves into the best position for government formation negotiations after the election. Oh no I mean they are united behind their strong principles of "reform" and other stuff. Not affiliated with Google in anyway btw. God knows where you would put them on the political spectrum.


Independent: What would Irish politics be without the humble independent. For years independents have played a role in Irish politics, the canny politician figuring out that the tendency for coalition governments with fragile majorities means they can extract some pretty strong commitments from governments in exchange for their support. They swing wildly from firey left wingers to conservative right wingers. The next election is probably going to bring even more of these boys in.

Workers And Unemployed Action
Oh yeah these guys. They're a local socialist party from Clonmel. Don't be expecting them to sweep the board.


So you said there's an election? What about THE POLLS




Its looking like the current coalition will not be able to hold onto their majority and will fall well short of the 80 seats needed to form a government. What happens after the election is going to be interesting, whether FG/Lab can continue by jamming together a mish-mash of independents and smaller parties like Renua and the SocDems or FG will look towards FF for support is the big question. An FG/FF alliance has been pretty much unthinkable previously and if there is serious movement on this, as some have speculated, it's a big deal.

Some Issues:

- Tax: With the economy seemingly in recovery FG have turned their eye on the Universal Social Charge, a sweeper tax introduced after the financial crisis to make up for the massive short fall in tax receipts caused by the collapse of the property bubble. FG want to scrap it all together while most other parties are arguing for adjustments to spare those on the lowest incomes. The SocDems are the only party arguing for no change.

-Health: It's all gone to poo poo. Years of budget cuts and hiring freezes have left the HSE in a bad way and crippling bed shortages and long waiting times have become a major national issue. Extra pressure is on current Health Minister Leo Varadkar, who is widely seen to be the favourite to succeed Enda.

-Water: The grand mess that is Irish Water remains an election issue, even if FG and Lab insist the matter is largely settled. Every left-wing party is calling for the controversial Water Charges to be abolished and will hammer away at this at the election, it's been a popular rallying point for those dissatisfied with the government

-The 8th Amendment: Another left-wing campaign issue that has gathered a lot of steam in recent months. The 8th Amendment, which provides constitutional protection for the unborn, has become a major sticking point for further reform of the Abortion laws. Though FG are not too keen on the idea Labour are pushing for it and may twist their arm to hold a vote on the matter to push for a referendum if the coalition survives.

And finally a succient explanation of Irish politics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjl8OIZijjY

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 15:56 on Feb 1, 2016

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012



The Northern Ireland Assembly is the regional devolved legislature of Northern Ireland established by the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. Elections, as with Ireland, are conducted using STV using multi-seat constituencies. As the result of the peace process the Northern Ireland assembly has various unique elements which might seem slightly unusual to the outsider:

Joint Leaders: The leaders of the Executive are the First Minister and deputy First Minister (that lowercase deputy is not a typo!). Though this would suggest one is junior to the other both positions are equal in responsibilities and all decisions made by the office must be made jointly. If one resigns the other loses their position. As of the St Andrews Agreement in 2006 the largest party of the largest designation has the right to nominate a First Minister while the largest party of the second largest designation has the right to nominate a deputy First Minister

Designation: All Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) must designate themselves open the commencement of an Assembly term one of three options: Unionist (supports Northern Ireland remaining within the United Kingdom), Nationalist (supports Irish unification) or Other. These designations are required for cross-community votes which require both a simple majority and separate majorities of Unionist MLAs and Nationalist MLAs. Cross-community voting comes into play with money bills, changes to the standing orders and the election of the Speaker

Power Sharing/Mandatory Coalition: The Northern Ireland Executive (cabinet) is appointed proportionally using the d'Hondt method in a system of mandatory coalition that means any party with sufficient MLAs is entitled to an Executive ministry. Until recently there was no official opposition but after a recent rule change any party that refuses to take a seat they are entitled to within the Executive may take up the title of the Official Opposition which comes with the typical speaking rights associated with the position in other parliamentary systems.

Petitions of Concern: A mechanism now much despised designed to protect minority rights. A petition signed by 30 MLAs will force any vote to be conducted as a cross-community vote, a mechanism which has sometimes been used as a blunt tool by parties to kill controversial votes.

How The Assembly Last Looked:



:siren:EVERYTHING HAS FALLEN APART AND THERE'S AN ELECTION THIS THURSDAY (March 2nd)!:siren:

THE PARTIES


UNIONIST:



The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): The party of "NO" originally set up by shouty god botherer Ian Paisley to oppose the reformist agenda of the then UUP Prime Minister Brian Faulkner. Opposed the Good Friday Agreement. Overtook the UUP as the largest Unionist party in 2003 by absorbing other small Unionist parties and has since severely eaten into it's votes to solidify its position as the largest party and supplant the UUP as the Unionist establishment. Right wing populist social conservatives - oppose same sex marriage, abortion reform, have many prominent creationist members, opposed the bedroom tax and supported rates freezes. Proudly on the wrong side of everything.
Leader: Arlene Foster - a former UUP member who defected to the party and has risen through the ranks rapidly
Current Seats: 38
2016 1st preference vote share: 29.2%
IN GOVERNMENT


The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): The Grand Old Party of Northern Ireland who controlled the Northern Ireland Parliament with an absolute majority from its foundation in 1921 to it's abolition in 1973 and remained the largest single party until 2003. Has been in steady decline after it's perceived over willingness to compromise with Sinn Fein saw the Unionist vote increasingly shift towards the DUP. Historically associated with the Conservative Party until 1985, an attempt to revive the link in 2008 to boost the party was a complete failure. Think old fashioned Tories - has a staunch conservative stream as well as a reformist Liberal Unionist tradition that have often clashed over leadership of the party
Leader: Mike Nesbitt - Largely seen to be from the Liberal wing of the party. He used to be a newsreader.
Current Seats: 16
2016 1st preference vote share: 12.6%
IN OPPOSITION - Refused their seats in the Executive after the last election but had already resigned from the executive before the election


Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV): Sick and tired of those god drat lefty liberal DUP politicians and their terrorist hugging anti-Unionist ways? A splinter faction of the DUP who opposed the decision to enter government with Sinn Fein after the 2006 St Andrews Agreement. Pretty much a one man party but he makes up for it in terms of sheer volume. Wants to abolish mandatory coalition and maybe bring back direct rule to stop the terrorists from winning! Think the DUP but even more outraged
Leader: Jim Allister - Their single MLA who has won begrudging respect from some for his one man opposition act.
Current Seats: 1
2016 1st preference vote share: 3.4%
IN OPPOSITION - not entitled to an executive seat

NATIONALIST:


Sinn Fein: I think we've covered them already elsewhere in the thread? Overtook the SDLP to become the largest single Nationalist party in 2003 but are seeing signs of possible decline after years of consolidation, Nationalist turnout has been decreasing and their vote share dropped last year for the first time since the party began contesting Assembly elections amid discontent from some that they have secured too little from the DUP in exchange for copper-fasting their position as the dominant party through the Fresh Start Agreement. Their decision to have deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness resign and not to nominate a replacement triggered the current election. Left wing nationalists, democratic socialist of some flavour
Current Leader: HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED
Queen In The North: Michelle O'Neill - Recently appointed to replace outgoing assembly leader Martin McGuinness
Current Seats: 28
2016 1st preference vote share: 24%
IN GOVERNMENT


Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): Founded in 1970 from a merger of various small local Labour and Nationalist parties, the SDLP advocated for civil rights and opposed the IRA's armed campaign instead calling for a peaceful constitutional nationalist movement based on consent. It's Republican critics have frequently accused it of being too accommodating to Unionism but it remained the largest nationalist vote winner until Sinn Fein overtook it in 2003 amid internal debates in nationalism over police reform. Has been in steady decline since it's popular leader John Hume stepped down and has struggled to maintain it's votes outside of it's traditional Catholic middle class base and it's heartlands of Derry and South Down. The "sister party" of the Labour Party (both UK and Ireland). Social democrats, centre-left but notably staunchly pro-life and opposed to abortion reform.
Current Leader: Colum Eastwood - a young'un who has lead the party into Opposition and has attempted to bolster it's Nationalist credentials by growing a beard.
Current Seats: 12
2016 1st preference vote share: 12%
IN OPPOSITION - Refused their seats in the Executive and joined the UUP in Opposition, have been building links with the party to present themselves as a unified alternative executive.

OTHER


Alliance: Created in 1970 as a breakaway from the reformist liberal Unionist pressure group the New Ulster Movement, Alliance is an explicitly anti-sectarian party that drew support from Ulster Liberal Party voters and moderate Unionists alienated from the UUP after the collapse of the Faulknerite reformist tendency. Though it started life as a moderate Unionist party it shifted it's stance on the union gradually and is now officially ambivalent on the constitutional question since the mid-90s, though many traditional nationalist voters still see it as Unionism in homeopathic doses. Often seen as painfully middle class. Liberals - staunchly anti-sectarian and in favour of integrated education, support same-sex marriage but with conscience protections for churches, opposed rates freezes, floated the idea of reintroducing means-tests charges for prescription medication as opposed to universal free prescriptions. Affiliated with the Liberal Democrats.
Current Leader: Naomi Long - replaced David Ford as leader at the end of 2016, former MP for Belfast East
Current Seats: 8
2016 1st preference vote share: 7%
IN OPPOSITION - Not entitled to a seat in the executive under d'Hondt, however Alliance held the Justice Ministry from 2010 to 2016 as part of a political compromise laid out in the Hillsborough Castle Agreement that ensured this post would be filled through a cross community vote with an implicit understanding from the major parties that the post would be held by a neutral third party. Alliance declined to renominate a candidate for the position after the 2016 election.


The Greens: Well, it's the Greens. Technically a regional affiliate of the Irish Green (peep the logo) though they retain friendly links with the English & Welsh Greens. One of the only openly pro-choice parties operating in NI, to the left economically. Managed to pick up their second ever MLA last year. Not much more to say?
Current Leader: Steven Agnew - He's gone a bit bald I guess
Current Seats: 2
2016 1st preference vote share: 2.7%
IN OPPOSITION - not entitled to an executive seat


People Before Profit (PBP): The SWP by any other name. Officially designated as Other though both their MLA's declared themselves as Socialist. As they repeatedly state they are "neither orange or green" and run on a socialist platform, though as an all-Ireland party with representation in the Dáil they have found the biggest success appealing to dissatisfied left-wing Nationalist voters - topping the poll in the traditional Sinn Fein heartland of Belfast West in the last election. Staunch Left-wing eurosceptics, which SF has increasingly focused on as a wedge issue to try to win back voters. Big Old Socialists
Current Leader: Technically collective but for registration purposes veteran socialist commentator and activist Eamonn McCann, who won a seat in Derry last year, is listed as leader.
Current Seats: 2
2016 1st preference vote share: 2.0%
IN OPPOSITION - not entitled to an executive seat

THE WEE LADS aka people who wont win a seat but are a thing



UKIP (2016 vote share: 1.5%) exist in NI though this year they are only running a single candidate, they previously had a single MLA after UUP MLA David McNarry left the UUP and became leader of UKIP in Northern Ireland though they failed to hold his seat at the last election. Behold the mythical left-wing unionist party the Progressive Unionist Party (2016 vote share: 0.9%), a working class party with links to the loyalist paramilitary group the UVF who's continued activity pretty much kills support for the party outside of a small base. After the UUP/Conservative pact went down like a lead balloon in 2008 the Tories reshuffled a couple of things and relaunched the party locally as the NI Conservatives (2016 vote share: 0.4%) with a degree of devolved autonomy but still nobody cares. Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol Citizens Independent Social Thought Alliance (CISTA) (2016 vote share: 0.4%) are a pro-cannabis legalisation party that hilariously outpolled several better known parties at the last election in a couple of constituencies. Want to vote Labour? Well you can't so vote for Cross Community Labour Alternative (2016 poll share: 0.3%) who where recently in the news when one of their candidates was expelled from the UK Labour party for standing in this election. The Workers Party (2016 vote share: 0.2%) are the political remnants of the Marxist rump from the Provisional/Official Sinn Fein split who favoured strict anti-sectarianism and denounced physical force republicanism while praising the Soviet Union and standing in solidarity with the brave DPRK, notable for the multi-year attempt by the USA to extradite their leader for his involvement in a North Korean currency forgery ring.





Wait, I though you had an election last year?

We did! But now we're having another one! Why? Well because of boilers.

The collapse of the Northern Ireland Executive is linked to the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal which was quietly brewing in the background for several months but only exploded in spectacular fashion in December of last year. The controversy relates to a subsidy scheme designed to encourage businesses to switch to wood pellet burning boilers for energy efficiency. The issue being that for some reason the legislation, which is practically a copy of similar legislation elsewhere in the UK, had the paragraphs capping payments completely deleted meaning that those availing of the scheme where actually making a profit the more fuel they used - earning the scandal the nickname "Cash For Ash". With Northern Ireland struggling to cope with a crunched budget the revelation of a multi-million pound overspend outraged a lot of people.

Then the whistleblowers started. Several people came forward to say they had raised concerns about the overspend and had attempted to contact then Enterprise Minister Arlene Foster about the issue, who had subsequently become First Minister. With questions swirling about why Foster took no action her successor Jonathan Bell broke ranks and gave a TV interview claiming Arlene Foster and several DUP special advisers had deliberately prevented him from closing the scheme and there was an attempt to alter official records to shield Foster from the blame. At the same time continued digging by journalists revealed multiple businesses connected to DUP advisors who had profited from the RHI scheme raising the spectre of a bit of dodgy dealings.

With increasing pressure mounting on a public inquiry to investigate the issue Foster doubled down and refused to temporarily step aside pending an investigation, refusing to budge an inch on the issue. The Opposition tabled a no-confidence motion in Arlene Foster that, although it gained a simple majority as the DUP's partner in government Sinn Fein abstained, failed due to a lack of cross-community support. Sinn Fein over the holiday period warned of repercussions if Foster did not voluntarily step aside, she continued to refuse. On 9th January then deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness resigns, kicking Foster out of her job as per the Joint leadership mechanism. Sinn Fein have made it clear that they have lost patience with the DUP and it has become increasingly apparent that the RHI scandal is the last straw in increasing tensions between the two parties that have been on a low boil for several years as the Assembly lurched from one scandal to a another.

Sinn Fein subsequently refused to nominate a replacement for Martin McGuinness leading to a new election being called for :siren:March 2nd:siren: as per standard process

So what happens after the election?

Nobody knows really. Educated guess is that barring any significant electoral shifts Sinn Fein and the DUP will retain their positions as the largest respective parties. SF have repeated that they will not enter an Executive with Foster as First Minister and have presented a raft of demands which must be addressed, many of them outstanding issues from the previous piecemeal agreements that have kept the Northern Ireland executive ticking over. The DUP are officially refusing to "feed the crocodile" but are making some slightly more conciliatory noises, but most likely not enough to appease Sinn Fein.

If no programme for Government can be agreed and no First Minister and deputy First Minister nominated technically we have to go back to a second election - but smart money is on the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland James Brokenshire presenting emergency legislation at Westminster to temporarily suspend the devolved assembly, a move which could mean a multi-year breakdown in regional politics and another period of political confrontation.

SO THE TROUBLES ARE COMING BACK

No.

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Feb 26, 2017

breadshaped
Apr 1, 2010


Soiled Meat
Great OP, OPer.

Listening to a Labour election coordinator on RTÉ try to argue that the party isn't going to lose seats and may actually come out stronger was glorious.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

kustomkarkommando posted:


:siren: NEW PARTY :siren: Renua: What happens when you get kicked out of Fine Gael for being too conservative? Well you form your own party of course! Renua where only formed last year and have never stood in an election. Their election manifesto calls on a flat tax and a full life sentence for burglars. Horrible.
Leader: Lucinda Creighton

Uh, what?

Also: what factors help Irish lefties choose between the Social Democrats, SF, and AAA?

Badger of Basra fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Feb 1, 2016

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Badger of Basra posted:

Uh, what?

Also: what factors help Irish lefties choose between the Social Democrats, SF, and AAA?

They've proposed a three strike system with a mandatory life sentence for serious offences on a third conviction. Burglary is including. They are also very keen on "life means life". Burglary on general is a big issue with rural ireland so taking a hard line on it might actually get them some support in the country.

The SocDems are soft left really, they focus on public service investment and taxation and seem keen enough to occupy the same space for the left as the Progressive Democrats did for neo liberalism years ago - a wonkish junior coalition party nudging the big parties finance policy. AAA-PBP and SF have larger aspirations, the difference between the SocDems and the other parties on USC probably shows the difference best - both AAA-PBP and SF want to reform the USC to exclude those on the lowest incomes and reform it into a more progressive tax on the highest earners, the SocDems want to keep it as is to maintain a high tax base to fund expanded infrastructure investment.

Whether you vote AAA-PBP or SF has a lot to do with your opinion on SF who still have a spectre of guys in balaclavas hovering over them to some. SFs commitment to socialism gets called into question a bit as well, up here in Northern Ireland there time in government has not exactly been marked with notable socialist reform - a good chunk of the diehard Irish leftists write SF off as populist pretenders. The trade unions backed a transfer pact between various left wing and direct democracy parties which SF signed up to, but AAA-PBP did not due to caginess about instructing voters to give transfers to SF (though frankly that's probably going to happen)

And of course a lot of people won't vote AAA-PBP cause they are effectively fronts for well established parties, their insistence that they aren't controlled by the Socialists/SWP respectively and are new broad based movements doesn't convince many people

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Feb 1, 2016

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


How much can Sinn Fein actually do to enact socialist policies in Northern Ireland though? Aren't they rather limited by the need to work with the DUP who are anything but interested in socialist policies? I'm not trying to sound like an apologist for them, I've not got a horse in this race, genuinely curious about the growth of Sinn Fein in the Republic. I've heard a little about a growing clash in the party between the old heads from Northern Ireland and a younger generation of activists who are less concerned with reunification and more worried about improving social justice in Ireland but aside from that I know very little.

Considering my sister stays in Dublin now I probably should know more about Irish politics but that tends to go as far as "Fianna Fial & Fine Gael are both terrible".

MonotoneKimi
Oct 9, 2012

If you aren't registered/have moved, there is still just about time to get on the supplemental register of electors.

You can check the electoral register here to make sure you are on it.

To be added to the register you need to fill out form RFA2.
If you have changed address you should fill out form RFA3.
And in the edge case, if you are on the register and have since become an Irish citizen you need to fill out form RFA5 to vote in the general election.

You will need to attend your local police station to complete the form.

Note:
"only those forms received before the 14th day before polling day (excluding Sundays, Public Holidays and Good Friday) at an election or referendum, may be considered for entry onto the supplement for that poll."

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Some random thing to sink your teeth into.

RTEs election centre is pretty good:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/

The Indo has managed to wrangle a weekly podcast with Pat Rabbitte, Bertie Ahern and Nora Owen dissecting the election, listen here:

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/rightcol/listen-the-front-bench-podcast-1-34407788.html

They also have another podcast with more analysis from some less well known names:

http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/listen-the-floating-voter-podcast-3-34407468.html

Nordie Blog Slugger O'Toole are doing detailed constituency by constituency profiles that have been v. good so far. All here:

http://sluggerotoole.com/author/saw/

And if you prefer things a bit more web 2.0 the journal has an election feed here:

http://www.thejournal.ie/election-2016/news/

kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:20 on Feb 1, 2016

School Nickname
Apr 23, 2010

*fffffff-fffaaaaaaarrrtt*
:ussr:
I think housing is going to be a serious issue in the upcoming election, especially in Dublin. There seems to be a concerted effort by all major actors to keep the housing supply low and rents amazingly high. If you actually drove around certain sections of Dublin, you'd notice a decent amount of dilapidated properties/brown sites with for sale signs on them that have been like this for years. After the crash NAMA (National Assets Management Agency) was set up to buy all the unsellable property off the banks at a "discount", then sell them back to the developers who built them at an actual discount. It's also been sitting on a large amount of property since the crash, not developing and selling them on, in the midst of a rental crisis. :psyduck: There's also a huge amount of cash buyers in the past two years and I don't know where the gently caress these people are getting the money.

It's gotten to the point where houses built in the 1930s, in areas known for gang-related shootings, were going for over €200-250k. My sister just barely managed to get a hovel of a cottage in Dublin for ~€180k, that will be near impossible to sell off in later life, with a small garden for a cat. People in the area will probably eat her future cat though. She's also banking on me to get a job up there to help her pay for the mortgage. Dublin is third world shithole, with a garbage traffic system (The city itself was never designed, and has never ever been redesigned for motor traffic), junkies on every corner and tyrannical landlords who are bound by no laws (the reason so many people are desperate to get a house). Welp.

School Nickname fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Feb 2, 2016

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I have dreamed of making this thread but I'm glad to see it's an actual good poster who beat me to it :unsmith:

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
There are hardly any houses for sale in Cork where the last time I heard (Evening Echo lol) the average house in the city was €230k.
It's not London or Singapore or San Francisco. It's Cork!

Not sure what can be done about this as people will have another poo poo attack if the value of their homes plummets so I can't any remotely courageous government action on the cards.

School Nickname
Apr 23, 2010

*fffffff-fffaaaaaaarrrtt*
:ussr:

julian assflange posted:

I have dreamed of making this thread but I'm glad to see it's an actual good poster who beat me to it :unsmith:

OP didn't include the sordid history of Fine Gael/Fianna Fail, probably for fear of being sued into penury for defamation ("M-Muh Good Name! :qq:", cried the man called out by a loving Judge in a Tribunal, who said he made corrupt payments). Irish forums are actually so afraid of litigation that political discussion is essentially non-existent on the largest forum, boards.ie, with the next largest forum politics.ie being a peanut gallery where old fogies, communists, shinners and other shills engage in passive aggressive slapfights preventing anyone from grasping the bigger picture. Irish people can't even be that mean to each other on the internet, you see. If something scoop-worthy does appear from the news or elsewhere on p.ie though, there's a flood of people who jump in and start screaming, "Do you want this site to be taken down!?!!", etc.

Even Reddit isn't immune. Talk too much in too serious a manner and there will be 2-3 guys "from legal backgrounds" extolling the virtues of defamation law in an attempt to shut down discussion. Sometimes I feel that I can only sum up the Irish political system with, "A peaceful land, a quiet people."

As, I too, do not come from the Land of the Free, and am therefore unable to not give much of a gently caress, here are some inappropriately timed photos of Enda Kenny, leader of a party with blatantly fascist orgins (Fianna Fail members to this day call them Blueshirts) that I managed to come across.


School Nickname fucked around with this message at 02:17 on Feb 2, 2016

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

So does Ireland have a similar libel problem to the UK, or is it worse?

MonotoneKimi
Oct 9, 2012

julian assflange posted:

There are hardly any houses for sale in Cork where the last time I heard (Evening Echo lol) the average house in the city was €230k.
It's not London or Singapore or San Francisco. It's Cork!

Not sure what can be done about this as people will have another poo poo attack if the value of their homes plummets so I can't any remotely courageous government action on the cards.

My sister paid €250k for a 4 bed semi in a Cork commuter town end of last year. She bought because the standard of the very limited available rental properties was so low.

It took me two and a half months to get a place to stay in Dublin last autumn. The housing situation is completely farcical at this point.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

What are the major newspapers in Ireland? I don't mean the rags

School Nickname
Apr 23, 2010

*fffffff-fffaaaaaaarrrtt*
:ussr:

Chomskyan posted:

What are the major newspapers in Ireland? I don't mean the rags

If you want to exclude rags, The Sunday Business Post is the only one left that qualifies. It's the only one that isn't either a local mouthpiece (Irish Examiner), a willing and pathetic scyophant to the State (Irish Times), or owned by the current High King of Ireland, Denis O' Brien (Irish/Sunday Independent, a rag on its best day). It actually manages to do a bit of investigative journalism now and then.

School Nickname fucked around with this message at 02:11 on Feb 2, 2016

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

School Nickname posted:

OP didn't include the sordid history of Fine Gael/Fianna Fail [...]

While interesting, I'm not sure what it adds to the discussion in 2016. None of the parties hold any consistent line or ideals anymore and sway whatever way will allow them survive the next election.

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Badger of Basra posted:

So does Ireland have a similar libel problem to the UK, or is it worse?

It's something that is getting more attention of late since in the last year, Ireland's richest man Dennis O'Brien is now suing/injunctioning anything that mentions him. As mentioned above, he owns a lot of the press and has always been litigious.
This article from the Irish version of Onion was a fairly big story https://m.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/3g19eu/as_removed_from_waterford_whispers_the_denis/
While it's just another spoof news site, their beef with O'Brien is real and produces some good stuff

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Sounds like no date for the election today. Have to wait until tomorrow. :argh:

Labour apparently favour a Friday election (26th) so whether they've managed to twist FGs arm on the date will be interesting to see

happyhippy
Feb 21, 2005

Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup
Pillbug

julian assflange posted:

There are hardly any houses for sale in Cork where the last time I heard (Evening Echo lol) the average house in the city was €230k.
It's not London or Singapore or San Francisco. It's Cork!

Not sure what can be done about this as people will have another poo poo attack if the value of their homes plummets so I can't any remotely courageous government action on the cards.

Living in Cork atm.
2 years ago I thought my rent of 700 euros a month was loving ridiculous for the city.
Now I'm estatic its that low, renting a place half decent is 900+

And as for buying, I checked out a 150 yo mildew stinking farmhouse out that hasn't been renovated since the 50s and the asking price was 175k. Sold for 190.

Random Integer
Oct 7, 2010

I look forward to the perennial choice between the corruptly incompetent and the incompetently corrupt.

julian assflange posted:

It's something that is getting more attention of late since in the last year, Ireland's richest man Dennis O'Brien is now suing/injunctioning anything that mentions him.


Isn't O'Brien suing the Dail because a TD dared to ask some questions about his dealings with the IBRC? (Questions she only asked because O'Brien got an injunction against RTE preventing them reporting on his IBRC deals)

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

forkboy84 posted:

How much can Sinn Fein actually do to enact socialist policies in Northern Ireland though? Aren't they rather limited by the need to work with the DUP who are anything but interested in socialist policies? I'm not trying to sound like an apologist for them, I've not got a horse in this race, genuinely curious about the growth of Sinn Fein in the Republic. I've heard a little about a growing clash in the party between the old heads from Northern Ireland and a younger generation of activists who are less concerned with reunification and more worried about improving social justice in Ireland but aside from that I know very little.

Just to get back to this now that I'm at a computer, one of the major issues putting pressure on SF in Northern Ireland in recent months has been their agreement to slash corporation tax to 12.5% (from 20%) as part of the "Fresh Start" deal with the DUP - a deal that the SDLP and other parties have complained froze them out of the negotiation process. SF used to openly support tax harmonization between Northern Ireland and the Republic, 12.5% being the rate in the South of course, and opposed increasing the corporation tax rate in South on various occasions. At a time when cuts to departments are beginning to bite heavily in Northern Ireland, and SF knows this all to well as they have helped implement front-line cuts to education through their control of the Department of Education, it seems absurd to suggest slashing available funding even more. SF did seem to realize that this position may not have been as tenable as it was once before around about the middle of last year and made noises publicly about supporting the devolving the power but not making any commitments to a cut, but never the less they agreed with the DUP to cut the rate substantially (even with very noisy opposition from the Unions and SDLP). There have been some comments from Councillors opposing a cut even after the deal was been made so it hasn't gone down entirely well with all of the party. Of course you could argue this was a necessary price to pay to get DUP support for the deal but it did used to be one of their objectives economically until the optics became a bit too bad.

SF is feeling the pinch in some quarters in the North from the left, Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit is set to snatch an assembly seat from them this year in West Belfast which is an SF heartland through and through. He ran in the Westminster elections last year as well targeting SF with criticism from the left and managed to snatch about 10% of the vote from them - giving them their worst result in the constituency since 1992. Similarly, the SDLP (now under new leadership) seem to be gearing up to attack SF as being weak on challenging Austerity at Stornont - though I'm not sure how well that tactic will play out for them.

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

forkboy84 posted:

How much can Sinn Fein actually do to enact socialist policies in Northern Ireland though? Aren't they rather limited by the need to work with the DUP who are anything but interested in socialist policies? I'm not trying to sound like an apologist for them, I've not got a horse in this race, genuinely curious about the growth of Sinn Fein in the Republic. I've heard a little about a growing clash in the party between the old heads from Northern Ireland and a younger generation of activists who are less concerned with reunification and more worried about improving social justice in Ireland but aside from that I know very little.

Considering my sister stays in Dublin now I probably should know more about Irish politics but that tends to go as far as "Fianna Fial & Fine Gael are both terrible".

http://thebrokenelbow.com/2016/01/18/1916-and-irelands-revisionists-a-counter-blast-from-justine-mccarthy/

Ed Moloney posted:

The simple truth is that in Mr Adams and his colleagues there really is much less for the Irish establishment to worry about than they imagine or fear.

These are not revolutionaries who wish to upend the social and economic order, despite their history of armed struggle; the willingness to use guns does not in itself signify anything more than a readiness to end another’s life.

As republicans go, they are more Pearse than Connolly, more concerned about changing the colors of the flag that flies over the GPO than challenging how the GPO does its business, more intent on attaining power than using it to transform society.

Their track record in government office in the North, from an almost instant acceptance of public-private partnerships and cuts in the health services, through to the recent negotiation of the viciously pro-austerity ‘Fresh Start’ deal tells us that.

Sinn Fein is a party which has elevated pragmatism and expediency to art forms, disclaiming a fixed economic and social ideology in the interests of attaining and keeping office, driven more by the polls than political doctrines, one day championing the victims of austerity against the banks, the next declaring it ‘has no problems with capitalism’.

Last March, on the margins of a St Patrick’s Day bash for Hillary Clinton in Manhattan, at a time when alarmed European bankers were comparing Sinn Fein to the then Greek radicals in Syriza, Goldman Sach’s CEO, Lloyd Blankfein asked Gerry Adams for a private chat which lasted ten minutes or so.

Afterwards Blankfein confided to a fellow guest that he had come away ‘greatly impressed…..and re-assured’ by the Sinn Fein leader.

So relax, Dublin Four. Easter Monday 2016 isn’t going to be any bit as bad as Easter Monday 1916. If you don’t believe me, then trust the man who runs the most powerful and egregiously greedy bank in America! I don’t think Gerry Adams would lie to him.

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


Informative stuff, thanks. Definitely not the successors to Connolly.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Its Friday 26th

Get those posters up

https://www.twitter.com/PaschalSheehy/status/694823467200438273

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Great photo

breadshaped
Apr 1, 2010


Soiled Meat
Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Labour have no real definable ideals. You've got Labour TDs harking on about appeasing job creators, Fine Gael trying to develop progressive social policy and Fianna Fail who are doing nothing but desperately to convince people they are honest politicians.

I might vote Social Democrats or perhaps Sinn Fein. There's no party that I can see with a leftist social/economic policy without being populist as gently caress.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Only a few hours into the official campaign and we may have already reached peak cringe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63XaJdZF9cU

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I lasted a minute

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

A reminder that Healy-Rae is considered to be one of the possible kingmaker independents who might be able to replicate his father's success with extracting sweet deals for a confidence-supply agreement. His name is getting thrown around alongside people like Michael Lowry.

Yeah, the guy with the novelty country song may have an important role to play in the next few weeks. Jesus.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
I fear that video is exactly what Americans expect of Irish politics.

The SocDems are the only party running with real substance, I think. Their three pre-existing TDs should all get re-elected, hopefully. It's a shame they couldn't get a few higher profile new candidates though.

Its also a shame Shane Ross and co. in the Independent Alliance were so attached to their Leaders Allowance expenses and didn't join the SocDems. If the SocDems were likely to have 5+ TDs they'd start to look like a real, rather than 'fringe' party.

I think we'll end up with a Fine Gael/Labour minority government, with Fianna Fail support (without being in government) for the next 18/24 months. Basically until Fianna Fail feel they can pull the plug, have a new election, and win enough seats to be the larger coalition party in a government. I think Fianna Fail are too smart to go into government with Fine Gael as the minority partner - they know they'd likely be eaten alive at the next election. But they're also not likely to be in a position to create a workable coalition this election.

My biggest hope is Renua lose all 3 of their seats, but from the looks of things Lucinda is fairly safe at the least.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Blut posted:

I fear that video is exactly what Americans expect of Irish politics.

The SocDems are the only party running with real substance, I think. Their three pre-existing TDs should all get re-elected, hopefully. It's a shame they couldn't get a few higher profile new candidates though.

Its also a shame Shane Ross and co. in the Independent Alliance were so attached to their Leaders Allowance expenses and didn't join the SocDems. If the SocDems were likely to have 5+ TDs they'd start to look like a real, rather than 'fringe' party.

I think we'll end up with a Fine Gael/Labour minority government, with Fianna Fail support (without being in government) for the next 18/24 months. Basically until Fianna Fail feel they can pull the plug, have a new election, and win enough seats to be the larger coalition party in a government. I think Fianna Fail are too smart to go into government with Fine Gael as the minority partner - they know they'd likely be eaten alive at the next election. But they're also not likely to be in a position to create a workable coalition this election.

My biggest hope is Renua lose all 3 of their seats, but from the looks of things Lucinda is fairly safe at the least.

The SocDem ticket is pretty light on names all together bar the big three. Last time I checked they had only managed to muster about 14-15 candidates in total - considering the Greens managed to find someone to stand in practically every constituency I am slightly disappointed that the SocDems seem to be aiming for something a little bit more reserved. I would have thought they would have least have had a punt at Dublin West/South-West. I guess there's always a chance they will team up with Ross and co to form a technical group if they fail to hit the 7 seats mark.

I'm thinking FF pulling some supply and confidence deal seems likely and FG/Lab is probably the outcome, but there is an outside chance that if Labour do very bad (below 10 seats, though I've seen talk of 15 seats or below 10% of the vote being a line for some in the party) Joan could get the heave from within and FG could attempt a single party minority - though realistically they would probably pull in Renua (shudder) to try to bulk out their votes a bit and insulate them.

Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




This got posted over in the Pics thread, and it deserves reposting here:



(Also, kustom: you should do a post about Northern Ireland, because as an observer from the States the politics there make ours look somewhat sane. Plus we both are having issues with FLEGS!.)

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.

Troy Queef posted:

This got posted over in the Pics thread, and it deserves reposting here:



(Also, kustom: you should do a post about Northern Ireland, because as an observer from the States the politics there make ours look somewhat sane. Plus we both are having issues with FLEGS!.)

Start here for NI politics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnH1OkBgTuQ

School Nickname
Apr 23, 2010

*fffffff-fffaaaaaaarrrtt*
:ussr:

Troy Queef posted:

This got posted over in the Pics thread, and it deserves reposting here:



(Also, kustom: you should do a post about Northern Ireland, because as an observer from the States the politics there make ours look somewhat sane. Plus we both are having issues with FLEGS!.)

I hope the SDs don't go the way of poor Grimey. :( There is a candiate running in my constituency. Hope she does well. My Dad for 6 months was fairly set on Sinn Fein as his only alternative, but as soon as he heard of the Social Democrats he became interested. A lot of people really don't want to vote SF due to their political baggage, even if they like their polices.

In other insignificant news, r/ireland mods have decided to shift political threads that could potentially damage their handlers of any nature, to an unheard of subreddit, where it will never be read (for the duration of the election). The residents are now impotently downvoting every mod post, knowing their reddit is going the way of boards.ie. Heh.

School Nickname fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Feb 4, 2016

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

Troy Queef posted:

(Also, kustom: you should do a post about Northern Ireland, because as an observer from the States the politics there make ours look somewhat sane. Plus we both are having issues with FLEGS!.)

NI Politics:

Sneaks McDevious
Jul 29, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
I'd say separate thread for NI as there is so much insane

Bryter
Nov 6, 2011

but since we are small we may-
uh, we may be the losers

School Nickname posted:

My Dad for 6 months was fairly set on Sinn Fein as his only alternative, but as soon as he heard of the Social Democrats he became interested. A lot of people really don't want to vote SF due to their political baggage, even if they like their polices.

Yeah, the drop in support for SF among people who were around back in the day is pretty stark:

Bryter fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Feb 4, 2016

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

What party is going to kick the loyalists out of Ulster and reunite the island?

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lemonadesweetheart
May 27, 2010

DUP and PUP

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