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Everyone except Gerry has said he was Chief of Staff of The Provisional IRA from December 77 to February 78. Edit: This is really good everyone should listen to this weekly http://www.todayfm.com/player/podca...ection_-_Week_2
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Feb 16, 2016 21:09
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I think thats literally the first time I've seen someone say they actually believe Gerry wasn't in the IRA. I don't doubt his intelligence but its a shame he's still leading SF. The terrorism associations from the troubles are definitely still a big issue for a lot of people (especially older voters). With a younger 'untainted' candidate like Pearse Doherty in charge SF would be in an even better electoral position. Pearse would be a bit less prone to numerical errors, too.
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Feb 16, 2016 23:09
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It's the second person I've witnessed saying they believe him. The first was Martin McGuinness.
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Feb 16, 2016 23:14
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RBB was much more eloquent than I've ever seen him in the Dáil. The rest of his party is much more inconsistent; I was at a DCU debate a few hours ago for Dublin NW and the AAA/PBP candidate there didn't really know his stuff and he wasn't a great speaker. The SocDems are looking better each day for me. I really hope they do well enough that if we have a FG/FF/Lab coalition that bring an early next GE, the SocDems will hopefully grow and be even stronger. breadshaped fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 17:24
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Based on the reaction to the debate it does looks like the SocDems might sweep up a fair few ex-Labour supporters. Not sure how it will play out for them though, the only SocDem candidate outside the main three that seems to be getting much attention is Gary Gannon in Dublin Central and it doesn't seem that likely he's going to inch out Maureen O'Sullivan for a seat - the other two seats are pretty much certain for Mary Luo and Pascal Donohue. 7 seats is their target and they'd be doing well to hit it kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 18:34 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 18:32
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Serious voter that I am, I didn't notice that Cork South Central doesn't have a SocDem candidate. Feck Somehow I don't see both Michael Martin and Michael McGrath being elected this time around Sneaks McDevious fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 23:50
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julian assflange posted:Serious voter that I am, I didn't notice that Cork South Central doesn't have a SocDem candidate. Feck Yer in Fianna Fail country boyo
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Feb 17, 2016 23:52
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I would love nothing more than Martin and Enda losing their seats somehow.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:57
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Enda is nailed on but I'd be less confident about Martin.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:01
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Here's a map of all the constituencies the SocDems are fielding candidates in: From here, which has maps of all the other parties as well - including all the ones people forget exist
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Feb 18, 2016 00:09
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There was also a Direct Democracy guy at the debate I was at and loving hell he was bloody loopy. Someone asked a question about the lack of public transport for Dublin north west and his answer was that instead of spending money on metro north, we should be buying a fleet of self driving cars from Elon Musk to take people from their doors to town.  Made me want to look them up and: quote:Prime Time ran a 20-minute investigative report by Rita O'Reilly which highlighted the close links between DDI, People for Economic Justice and DebtOptions Ireland to the Freeman movement.[4] The party also has formal links to the fringe lobbying group known as the National Health Federationwhich opposes water fluoridation, compulsory childhood vaccines and promotes unproven cancer treatments.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:16
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drat didn't mean to edit this. Oh well, it was just number stuff about Cork South Central.
kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 00:22
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Feb 18, 2016 14:11
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Got to hand it to Lucinda, this is a pretty funny response: https://twitter.com/LCreighton/status/700240314964054016 I had a quick look on Paddypower at the election odds for the other SD candidates, from the looks of things Anne-Marie McNally (Dublin Mid-West) and Gary Gannon (Dublin Central) look to be the most likely, at 6.50 (decimal) odds. Outside of the 3 sitting TDs that is. The other candidates all seem to be very distant, odds of 21.00 - 80.00. Hopefully one (or both) of them manage to pull off a surprise and gets in.
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Feb 18, 2016 14:39
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That image is even more out of touch because One Direction have broken up completely now, haven't they? They are barely even the current teen flavour either. Maybe it would have worked better in 2011. Or maybe Labour aren't sure what to do since their gay marriage poster backfired. One thing I did just remember about the debate is how Joan Burton of all people was the first and only(?) to refute the idea that the government does not make jobs. Not even AAA, SocDems, or Gerry said anything against that. I was impressed with that at least. I mean, Labour still don't deserve any seats but hey, it's a start.
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Feb 18, 2016 18:17
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Someone leaked a poll commissioned for the Sunday Times conducted on the day of the TV debate and immediately after It puts Labour at 4%, that is complete wipeout territory and half of what they have been polling - the Labour reaction has been one of sheer disbelief and they are insisiting it must be an outlier Here's it visualised  For comparison here's the latest Red C poll conducted between Monday and Thursday which tracks closer to what we've been seeing in previous polls 
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Feb 20, 2016 19:35
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And just to add some emphasis to that 4% of first preferences would be the worst Labour result ever - which would be kind of hilarious coming off the back of their best result ever in 2011
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Feb 20, 2016 19:51
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 obliterated
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Feb 20, 2016 20:19
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Is there a clear reason for such a shift? Is it at all comparable to Labour losing in Scotland because of anti austerity and anti right wing sentiment shifting to a nationalist party?
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Feb 20, 2016 21:24
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Coohoolin posted:Is there a clear reason for such a shift? Is it at all comparable to Labour losing in Scotland because of anti austerity and anti right wing sentiment shifting to a nationalist party? Labour in Ireland are comparable to the Lib Dems in the UK. Voted in under the pretense of keeping the reigns in on the bigger party, and failed horribly. There was also a shift in leader just over a year ago and Burton is horrible as a public speaker and as a face of the party. If you want a comparison to UKLabour in Ireland, I'd look at Fianna Fail.
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Feb 20, 2016 21:36
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kustomkarkommando posted:Someone leaked a poll commissioned for the Sunday Times conducted on the day of the TV debate and immediately after "someone leaked a poll" should send all sorts of red flags up. Who "leaked" it, and what were their motivations? What were the sampling methods? How are you confident these are the actual results?
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Feb 20, 2016 21:44
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What does Fail means in Irish.
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Feb 20, 2016 21:58
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Fianna Fail (yes I know I'm missing the accents) means "Warriors of Destiny" in Irish. Long story related to the Anglo-Irish War and the Irish Civil War.
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Feb 20, 2016 22:00
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Cabinet posted:Labour in Ireland are comparable to the Lib Dems in the UK. Voted in under the pretense of keeping the reigns in on the bigger party, and failed horribly. There was also a shift in leader just over a year ago and Burton is horrible as a public speaker and as a face of the party. Though in fairness, I think UK Labour are a mite less transparently corrupt than Fianna Fail
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Feb 20, 2016 22:09
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Discendo Vox posted:"someone leaked a poll" should send all sorts of red flags up. Who "leaked" it, and what were their motivations? What were the sampling methods? How are you confident these are the actual results? It was conducted by Behaviour & Attitudes who are a respected enough polling company, it was undoubtedly leaked to generate a bit of press and the Times published it today in advance (behind a paywall of course) - Labour have generally been tracking slightly lower in their polls for a while than in other polls but full sampling info will be published tomorrow. 8%, which is what they've been sitting on in other polls by Red C and others is still a dismal result for Labour, last time they dipped below 9% was 87 after they pulled out of a previous coalition with FG which was (at the time) their lowest first preference vote share since the 40s - Labour are privately confident they will secure 10%+ and anything lower may spell serious internal party wrangling kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Feb 20, 2016 |
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Feb 20, 2016 22:11
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Coohoolin posted:Is there a clear reason for such a shift? Is it at all comparable to Labour losing in Scotland because of anti austerity and anti right wing sentiment shifting to a nationalist party? Labour got a record poll boost in 2011 as people shifted to the traditional opposition parties en mass in protest to FFs dismal handling of the bail out and the beginning of austerity - their time in government has been marked by a continuation of austerity policies and many of the people who voted for them are bitterly disappointed in their performance - a couple of Labour TDs have even been expelled for voting against the government as the Irish whip system is incredibly strict. Adding to that many Labour figures from years gone by who built the popularity of the party since the 90s are retiring and not contesting the election - generally negativity about Labour failing to mitigate FGs austerity policies plus a passing of the old guard is not making people very optimistic about their chances.
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Feb 20, 2016 22:18
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Spacewolf posted:Fianna Fail (yes I know I'm missing the accents) means "Warriors of Destiny" in Irish. Long story related to the Anglo-Irish War and the Irish Civil War. that's rad 
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Feb 20, 2016 22:42
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forkboy84 posted:Though in fairness, I think UK Labour are a mite less transparently corrupt than Fianna Fail Fair! But it's more of a comparison than FF-UKLabour Kurtofan posted:that's rad It's also in our national anthem! However it is pronounced more like "fall" than "fail"
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Feb 20, 2016 22:54
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kustomkarkommando posted:It was conducted by Behaviour & Attitudes who are a respected enough polling company, This means nothing. Many polls are poo poo. What was the method?
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Feb 20, 2016 23:06
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Discendo Vox posted:This means nothing. Many polls are poo poo. What was the method? They usually conduct their polls with door to door surveys sampled across all constituencies and then weigh the results by self declared likelihood to vote and past voting history, eliminating undecideds. As I said the full data has yet to be published yet by the company and the reported margin of error is 3%, which isn't that far from a similar poll conducted by Millward Brown in the same time period for the Sunday Independent which puts Labour at 6% with a similar margin of error. Again these are all headline figures being released for the weekend media cycle before the full polls are published for the Sunday papers edit: Actually hold on the full tables have been released now kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 23:21 on Feb 20, 2016 |
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Feb 20, 2016 23:15
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http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/watch-mary-lou-mcdonald-confronted-by-incensed-man-on-dublins-grafton-st-34468268.html Interesting bit of news from the other day. A well dressed man who identifies as a small business owner confronted a Sinn Fein politician on the street. He said they follow a tax policy which punishes people who want to work hard and get on. He also said he was apolitical but would vote Fine Gael. The media hasn't covered it since but he was outed on Twitter and Facebook as CEO of the Irish branch of Sarasin & Partners, a wealth management firm that manages £13.4B worldwide. Marenghi fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Feb 21, 2016 |
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Feb 20, 2016 23:32
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Marenghi posted:http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/watch-mary-lou-mcdonald-confronted-by-incensed-man-on-dublins-grafton-st-34468268.html loving hell. I saw this earlier too. loving chancers.
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Feb 21, 2016 00:35
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A wealth management firm that manages less than fourteen pounds? I didn't know things were that bad in Ireland.
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Feb 21, 2016 00:43
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Marenghi posted:http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/watch-mary-lou-mcdonald-confronted-by-incensed-man-on-dublins-grafton-st-34468268.html Lol I thought it was some shopkeeper
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Feb 21, 2016 01:16
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I'll be interested to see what the turnout is like. A piece in the Irish Times suggested the referendum last year had got a lot of people interested in politics who wouldn't have had an interest before.
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Feb 21, 2016 01:22
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julian assflange posted:Lol I thought it was some shopkeeper I had a feeling he was out of touch with the common man when he complained about his poor middle income children not wanting to earn 69K if Sinn Fein brought in a new tax band.
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Feb 21, 2016 01:27
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The turnout for the referendum was decent considering they generally get poo poo turn outs - the campaign hasn't exactly been electrifying though and people have been complaining about how boring it's been considering the months of build up and electioneering. I would still hope for something in the mid 70s range, so a bit higher than the last couple of elections but on par with the last election off the back of an FG/Labour coalition - which did not work out very well for Labour so maybe they are trying to be boring on purpose
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Feb 21, 2016 01:30
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julian assflange posted:I'll be interested to see what the turnout is like. A piece in the Irish Times suggested the referendum last year had got a lot of people interested in politics who wouldn't have had an interest before. The circles I follow from the Marriage Ref are really pushing for people to get out and vote in this GE. No idea if they will actually show, but there is an effort to get the youth voting and at the very least the LGBT to vote.
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Feb 21, 2016 02:15
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Marenghi posted:http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/watch-mary-lou-mcdonald-confronted-by-incensed-man-on-dublins-grafton-st-34468268.html I'm pretty sure all those young people who earn 69 grand he's talking about have already been "taxed out of existence" because I've never loving met any.
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Feb 21, 2016 03:53
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Kurtofan posted:What does Fail means in Irish. Don't worry about it, the English meaning works much better.
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Feb 21, 2016 10:06
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