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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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News:
- I got the job.
- I am now very busy.
- I haven't forgotten my roots, so I have updated my local files with 2017 data and will soon push an update to all of the apps.

In the meantime, here are some observations.

Best 2017 by Game Score* (typical quality of whole games, rushing only)
1. Alvin Kamara
2. Kareem Hunt
3. Alex Collins
4. Mark Ingram
5. Todd Gurley
6. Dion Lewis
7. Corey Grant (this year's Antone Smith)
8. Aaron Jones
9. Kenyan Drake
10 Austin Ekeler

Worst 2017 by Game Score*
142. Jonathan Stewart
141. Doug Martin
140. Adrian Peterson
139. DeAndre Washington
138. Samaje Perine
137. Jamaal Williams
136. Leonard Fournette
135. DeMarco Murray
134. Chris Ivory
133. Matt Forte

Best 2017 by Expected Points Added* (contribution to team, in expected points of the state of play before and after the carry)
1. Alvin Kamara
2. Dion Lewis
3. Kareem Hunt
4. Mark Ingram
5. Zeke
6. Corey Grant
7. Aaron Jones
8. Duke Johnson
9. Todd Gurley
10. Jordan Howard
(Breida, Collins, Fournette, Rex, Lynch also had good showings this year)

Worst 2017 by Expected Points Added*
142. Jerick McKinnon
141. Adrian Peterson
140. Jonathan Stewart
139. Chris Ivory
138. Thomas Rawls (oof)
137. DeMarco Murray
136. Jay Ajayi
135. Ameer Abdullah
134. Matt Forte
133. Shane Vereen

Best 2017 by Success Rate* (proportion of rushing plays with a positive EPA)
1. Gilly
2. Dion Lewis
3. Todd Gurley
4. Alfred Morris
5. Devonta Freeman
6. Zeke
7. Alvin Kamara
8. Wayne Gallman
9. Duke Johnson
10. Mark Ingram

Worst 2017 by Success Rate* (proportion of rushing plays with a negative EPA)
142. Paul Perkins
141. Chris Ivory
140. Ameer Abdullah
139. Elijah McGuire
138. Bilal Powell
137. Kerwynn Williams
136. Doug Martin
135. DeMarco Murray
134. Thomas Rawls
133. Chris Johnson

*adjusted for variance and sample size using Best Linear Unbiased Prediction

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Jan 4, 2018

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Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Alvin Kamara






Leonard Fournette






Christian McCaffrey






Joe Mixon






Kareem Hunt






Matt Breida


got any sevens
Feb 9, 2013

by Cyrano4747
Rip rawls

Maybe cable will get canned and we get a real o line next year

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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:siren:Data stack and all apps updated with 2017 data:siren:
Reminder here on how to use the apps. List of apps here.

Raw data can be downloaded here.

Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

Dion Lewis:. Best running back of all generations, or just his generation?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Hierarchical clustering of players who took a rushing attempt in 2017 (cluster relationships determined by data going back to 2009, plus combine measures).



Inputs:
- run distribution
- average game score and variance in game scores
- active run share (usage when playing)
- run/pass balance
- inside/outside run ratio
- speed score (weight-adjusted 40 time) and draft weight

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

Dion Lewis:. Best running back of all generations, or just his generation?

Lol. He had a pretty good year.






Current comps for his career so far:

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Denver defense: still good against the run.

got any sevens
Feb 9, 2013

by Cyrano4747
Were the panthers the best? Who was worst? Have you been able to isolate standout defensive guys by tracking them if they switch teams, or is that too team-scheme-dependent and maybe premature on data collection too? I know the seahawks D fell apart this year from injuries, did runners get noticeably better against us over the season?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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got any sevens posted:

Were the panthers the best? Who was worst? Have you been able to isolate standout defensive guys by tracking them if they switch teams, or is that too team-scheme-dependent and maybe premature on data collection too? I know the seahawks D fell apart this year from injuries, did runners get noticeably better against us over the season?

The appropriate way to isolate particular players is with the player tracking type work, which I unfortunately don't have access to (though I was eventually able to cajole Matt Harmon into pursuing some of my ideas on low-hanging fruit to pick for running back stacks, like "clock time behind the line of scrimmage per run" as a measure of LevBell-like patience).

The distribution plots do give an indication about which unit is important to the defense, though. Teams with good D-Lines tend to suppress the length of runs in the 1-5 yard range, while teams with good run-stopping linebackers and strong safeties tend to cut off the proportion of long runs (~7+) in a "bend don't break" style defense. The Quick Hit on defenses talks a bit about this (on website).

I did, however, re-run my CAPARE model after your question. This stands for "Context- and Player- Adjusted Rushing Expected yards".

As a reminder:
1) We're only looking at defense against rushing attempts by running backs (and exclude attempts by quarterbacks and wide receivers).
2) We're excluding 4th down rushing attempts (because they tend to be strange - the goal usually isn't to gain "yards" plural, but to fall forward for just one yard).
3) We're ranking teams based on the strength of the statistical evidence in favor of their difference from the league average, not necessarily their estimated impact on average yards per carry against.
4) We're controlling for context effects on each and every single rushing attempt, including adjustments for down and distance, field position, and score differential for each half (and overtime).
5) We're adjusting for the estimated quality of the running backs being defended against. For running backs with small sample sizes, we assume that they are probably about average, while for running backs with larger sample sizes, we increasingly rely on their track record (in technical terms, we include a "random effect" term for running backs).

By this measure, 2017 was actually a really great year for run defenses. Five of the top-20 run defenses since 2009 were from this past year, and MIN just missed the list. This included:
4. ARI
8. PHI
11. TEN
13. CLE
18. DEN
21. MIN

#1 overall is still Denver 2015, and it isn't remotely close.


Worst defense this year was the Rams, but nobody was even close to the worst from previous years. NO 2012, CHI 2013, TB 2011 are still the three worst in the database.

Forever_Peace fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Jan 7, 2018

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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follow-up: here's Carolina this year, since you asked. Blue is league-average since 2009, red is Carolina.



This is typical of a great D-Line. Average defense stops about a fifth of all runs for no gain. Carolina stopped about a quarter.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


I just saw that the nfldb and nflgame github repos were marked unmaintained by the owner. So sad. Did anyone take over on a new fork, or is there a good alternative free, python-friendly nfl data source now?

There’s a couple kaggle datasets of questionable quality.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

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Oh man, that sucks! All the teams moving around are almost certain to break the update mechanism without manual workarounds.

I don't know of anything else that is free, unfortunately.

Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

Forever_Peace posted:

Oh man, that sucks! All the teams moving around are almost certain to break the update mechanism without manual workarounds.

I don't know of anything else that is free, unfortunately.

Hey, how good was the Eagles' committee this year? I heard it was surprisingly good for who was working it

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

Dead? That's what they want you to think.

quote:

There is approximately a 15% chance that Adrian Peterson actually broke Dickerson's record, but it was not noticed due errors accumulated by rounding the lengths of rushes to integer values.

http://dumbmatter.com/2013/01/did-a...surement-error/

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007


Ignores red zone differences. How many rushes did each man have that were measured to fractions of a yard, and/or crossed the goal line?

e. actually "how many" isn't important. Just, the analysis should exclude yards that were measured precisely and only apply a curve to yards that were rounded. It might be quite a chore, but presumably the "precise" yards can be counted by looking at all rushes beginning or ending within the 1 yard line, right?

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 23:14 on May 4, 2018

JIZZ DENOUEMENT
Oct 3, 2012

STRIKE!

Forever_Peace posted:

Sorry guys. =( The next chapter has been 90% done for quite a while, but a couple of data science job opportunities opened up that I wanted to pursue, which has been eating a lot of my time.

I did just give a stats-y job talk that casually dropped some Ground Control stuff on em though. They loved it!

You arouse me, mentally and sexually.

I hope you get that job!

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Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

Is Melvin Gordon bad or is the line still just lovely?

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