Ground Control: deconstructing the run game to an unreasonable extent

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > Ground Control: deconstructing the run game to an unreasonable extent

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

While I think there is definite merit in those findings, it would be interesting to look at players that actually did get better over time or in later years. I want to start by looking at DeAngelo Williams' who has done amazingly well filling in for Bell.

# ¿ Feb 13, 2016 08:19

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 5, 2024 05:52

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Those are pretty cool visuals for getting a better idea of how much better/worse a player is than the league average. It is also really comforting to know that even advanced metrics show that Trent Richardson is just awful.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2016 00:53

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Leperflesh posted:

Something's been bothering me in the back of my head about all these run distributions and the discussion of long runs, and it finally occurred to me.

A long run is impossible when you're a yard from the end zone. The closer you are to the opponent's goal line, the shorter the possible runs: and at the same time, defenses tend to "stack the box" more in those goal-line stand situations.

There must be backs in the league who are specialists in red zone carries; any of them that gets more than 50 carries should show up in the data. They'll tend to represent teams that have offenses capable of frequently getting into the red zone, and the percentage of their runs that extend into long yards should be disproportionately short. I suppose the best way to find them would be to compare sheer number of TDs to run distributions and find backs that have lots of TDs despite very few if any long runs.

I thought FP touched on this a bit and said it would be part of an upcoming chapter. He kinda started the conversation when he talked about the Short-Yardage specialist archetype. Basically dudes that are really good at falling forward for 1-2 yards. I imagine there is some way you can take into account POTENTIAL yardage for each play, so that a play at the 5 yard line doesn't negatively impact probablity of a 6 yard run. And actually now that I think about it, isn't this already part of the distribution plot? FP mentioned that he has the the spot of the ball on each play so that potential yardage wouldn't be hard to determine.

# ¿ Feb 17, 2016 16:34

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

I eagerly anticipate each new chapter and this one was loving awesome. I have learned a lot about stats, but actually enjoyed it!

# ¿ Mar 3, 2016 23:49

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Forever_Peace posted:

Done! And thanks for taking care of that - I had forgotten I hadn't finished fixing the graphics bug in the rest of the old apps! While we're at it, you have any thoughts about the other warning that tends to pop up with these?

Update for the rest of you: I've finished the analysis for chapter five, but am having a hell of a time writing it. "Situational factors" turns out to be a big complicated topic. We may have to break it in two. While I figure it out, anybody have any easy Quick Hit requests so I can keep content coming to the thread?

I would really like to see a breakdown of Lamar Miller. He was one of the top Free Agent RB's this offseason and the general goon consensus is that Miami criminally under-utilized him. Do the numbers agree? What type of runner is Miller?

# ¿ Mar 31, 2016 16:30

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 5, 2024 05:52

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Thank you so much FP! That was a fantastic read and confirmed a lot of my thoughts on Miller. I really can't wait to see what he does on the Texans next year.

# ¿ Apr 6, 2016 21:06

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Football Funhouse > Ground Control: deconstructing the run game to an unreasonable extent