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Man, this episode hit really close to home.
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Mar 1, 2017 20:01
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 20:19 |
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Raxivace posted:How many of these light novels actually get entirely adapted? I'd have to imagine it can't be very many. The LNs that we see getting anime adaptations or even getting heard about outside of Japan is just the tip of the iceberg. As far as original IPs, the lowest tier usually starts at webnovels or sometimes more traditional publishing contests by major corporations. Essentially no barrier to entry here but also no money to be made, so chances of getting picked up as a "serious" LN are slim and getting picked up as basically anything else is practically nonexistent. Popularity is the primary currency here. Assuming one does get picked up, LNs that are even moderately successful recoup their printing costs quickly. Unlike manga serializations they don't have a constant, rapid schedule of content to put out unless you're in the tier of writers successful enough to even get adapted in the first place. There's a mountain of unfinished/permanent hiatus/geniunely cancelled series sitting at 1-2 volumes to climb over before you even get to the mid-tier. Then, at the mid-tier, you mostly have trend-chasers like the current glut of isekai anime that's been ongoing for the past decade or so. A fraction of the most successful of these might get a (frequently very-low budget) 1-cour anime but are extremely unlikely to get fully adapted. The rest can sometimes get less expensive adaptations like short run manga (usually not covering more than the 1st arc or so) or radio dramas. When you climb above these you get to the titles that are actually able to maintain popularity and make it to 10+ volumes. It's pretty rare for LNs to be a smash hit from the start unless they're running off the credentials of an established author, and series usually take 4-6 volumes to hit peak popularity. By this point the series might have already had an adaptation, and if the series is able to get a season 2 it's not terribly unlikely that it will be able to eventually get a full adaptation. Though, that might take a while. Full Metal Panic ended in 2010 and the adaptation still looks like it's going forward at the rate of maybe a season a decade. A perhaps more typical example of a popular LN, Oregairu, took ~8 years to get all 3 of its seasons, a similar length to the print run. Overlord is still getting adapted 10 years on from the first adaptation. A rule of thumb might go something like: If it gets a season 2 or a movie after the 1st season, there's a 68% chance of it completing a full adaptation. If it gets a season 3, it's probably closer to 95% chance of eventually being fully adapted. Don't ask how Haruhi fits into this rule, a popular series getting to go on near-indefinite hiatus at the height of its popularity. and then popping back a decade later is a statistical anomaly.
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Apr 15, 2024 03:28
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