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Phlegmish posted:
Those are mah peeps.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:25
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wow rude posted:Also non white vote evenly split but this doesn't mean anything for ~*~reasons~*~ Reasons being there statistically aren't any, and the ones that there are aren't representative of those in the south.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:27
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Mitt Romney posted:Clinton tied Sanders among registered Democratic voters. Most of the cool kids (myself included) stay "unaffiliated" to rebel against the party label and then also have the option of voting wherever the fun is. A large portion of those "independents" are consistent Dems or Repub voters when it counts.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:29
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wow rude posted:Also non white vote evenly split but this doesn't mean anything for ~*~reasons~*~ Someone in this very thread literally said those people weren't really non-whites.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:31
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greatn posted:What would happen in South Carolina if it has the same 48/52 split in non white voters? Just as an exercise. If Bernie keeps all his demographic splits from NH, he wins every primary easily. This will not happen.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:33
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Mulva posted:Reasons being there statistically aren't any, and the ones that there are aren't representative of those in the south. so basically Thump! posted:Minorities in the North vote like this. but unironically. Ok
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Feb 10, 2016 20:38
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Phlegmish posted:Now let me tell you about a place called Seabrook, New Hampshire...they're Trump loyalists almost to a man. My father in law is in Seabrook and supported Trump because he speaks his mind.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:42
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SavageBastard posted:Most of the cool kids (myself included) stay "unaffiliated" to rebel against the party label and then also have the option of voting wherever the fun is. A large portion of those "independents" are consistent Dems or Repub voters when it counts. It's all driven by how NH has a open primary process
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Feb 10, 2016 20:43
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Also, I'm guessing the number one reason for party registered voters in NH is that once you forget or neglect to unaffiliated once, you now need to go to Town Hall to update your registration, and most people are lazy. My coworker was registered R from 2012 when he neglected to unaffiliate and forgot to switch before the deadline. My wife is now registered D because after the traffic to get in, she just wanted to go home rather than wait in the three person line to unaffiliate. I don't know of anyone maintaining party affiliation. Maybe my step-mother? She was somewhat involved in the Democratic party in 2012 with my step-sister who was working for Obama's reelection campaign. There really just isn't a benefit to it, and it would be much easier if we just switched to full open primary.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:47
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Why is Clinton (expected to be) so popular with minorities? I'm not American so I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.
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Feb 10, 2016 20:53
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MMM Whatchya Say posted:Why is Clinton (expected to be) so popular with minorities? She's done a lot of minority outreach over the decades, as did her husband (he was called "the first black president" in the 90s because of that). So she has a very high baseline popularity there. Bernie has struggled a bit with minority outreach (mostly because he comes from 99.998% white vermont) and while the topics he talks about are very much in tune with minority interests (who typically fall in the lower economic strata) his messaging has been hit or miss. He's working on it, but it's an upHill battle. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 20:57 on Feb 10, 2016 |
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Feb 10, 2016 20:54
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MMM Whatchya Say posted:Why is Clinton (expected to be) so popular with minorities? Because the Clintons have name recognition but hosed over the black community in the 90s by pushing tough on crime policies and social safety net reform deals. I would recommend people check out the book The New Jim Crow: http://newjimcrow.com/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om2hx6Xm2JE
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Feb 10, 2016 21:00
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MMM Whatchya Say posted:Why is Clinton (expected to be) so popular with minorities? Some more theories: 1) She's always polled well with minorities, for starters, and continues to do so. 2) Bill's really good at actually being normal around black people and his administration is associated with an economic boom period that greatly benefitted black people re: unemployment and income; the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit helped too. 3) Hillary Clinton's seen as a sure thing and minorities are terrified of the possibility a Sanders candidacy will end up with an all-Republican controlled government because they know from experience they'll end up suffering most. The Tough on Crime and Welfare Reform bills that occurred during the Clinton administration are also only acknowledged as harming minority communities in retrospect, at the time a lot of minorities were in favor of those policies so they don't usually associate the Clintons with those policies' long-term side effects the way you might expect.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:01
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why are felons not allowed to vote (in certain states)? i'm not sure that's constitutional.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:07
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Combed Thunderclap posted:The Tough on Crime and Welfare Reform bills that occurred during the Clinton administration are also only acknowledged as harming minority communities in retrospect, at the time a lot of minorities were in favor of those policies so they don't usually associate the Clintons with those policies' long-term side effects the way you might expect. This is especially true of the 1994 crime bill - it passed the House on a voice vote. Republicans supported it, Blue Dog dems supported it, the Congressional Black Caucus supported it, Bernie Sanders supported it.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:08
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Thanks to the weakness of the DNC they already have a all republican government in the state and local government side. This republican dominated stave governments have hosed black communities over in places like Flint or pushed more Clintonian welfare reforms such as the drug testing requirement in Florida.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:09
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stoutfish posted:why are felons not allowed to vote (in certain states)? Because a lot of Americans have a huge boner for punishing undesirables, unfortunately.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:10
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stoutfish posted:why are felons not allowed to vote (in certain states)? 14th amendment, fam. quote:Section 2. Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age, and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State. stripping the right to vote for criminal behaviour is explicitly constitutional.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:10
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Thump! posted:Because a lot of Americans have a huge boner for punishing undesirables, unfortunately. Bernie had a forum on criminal justice reform and it was great: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoBkafx9HMc
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Feb 10, 2016 21:11
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Pinterest Mom posted:14th amendment, fam. Before you say "but that's insane" that's the actual legal logic used by the Supreme Court to uphold the constitutionality of felony disenfranchisement in 1974, 6-3.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:12
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MMM Whatchya Say posted:Why is Clinton (expected to be) so popular with minorities? In addition to what was already said, there exists a very large degree of familiarity w/r/t Hillary among black voters in particular because she and her husband were/are big on the whole "retail politics" thing, which is basically being on the ground giving town hall speeches, talking to people, kissing babies etc. The Clintons have been doing a lot of networking with minorities all over the country over the years, which puts Sanders at a substantial disadvantage because he has not (at least not to the same degree). It's almost ironic considering Sanders is arguably better on the issues affecting the black community but voters tend to go with what they know, and minorities know Hillary. That's why there's a lot of optimism on the Bernie side that minorities will suddenly "feel the burn" if only they get to know him better but there's no indication that this is happening in Southern states. That's big, because Super Tuesday is largely comprised of the SEC states which have very large black populations.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:21
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OAquinas posted:(he was called "the first black president" in the 90s because of that). This has been talked about to death in thus thread, but that's not why he was called "the first black president"
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Feb 10, 2016 21:23
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greatn posted:What would happen in South Carolina if it has the same 48/52 split in non white voters? Just as an exercise. Depends on how antisemitic white democrats are.
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Feb 10, 2016 21:47
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With 100% of precincts reporting, we can now get an accurate delegate count from NH for the Republicans. Raw: Trump: 8.128 Kasich: 3.635 Cruz: 2.687 Jeb!: 2.535 Rubio: 2.431 Rounded: Trump: 8 Kasich: 4 Cruz: 3 Jeb!: 3 Rubio: 2 That's 20 delegates out of 23. The remaining three are awarded to Trump, bringing his total to 11. Total with Iowa: Donald Trump: 18 pledged Ted Cruz: 11 pledged Marco Rubio: 9 pledged John Kasich: 5 pledged Jeb! Bush: 4 pledged Ben Carson: 3 pledged Rand Paul: 1 pledged Carly Fiorina: 1 pledged Mike Huckabee: 1 pledged
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Feb 10, 2016 21:53
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Also, the final vote count for the Democratic side is: 94,834........37.9% Clinton, 152,292......60.9% Sanders. Spread is 23 % points, even. Now we need some updated polling for NV and SC badly; if nothing's changed in the last few months since the last one Sanders is going to lose both with about the same margin. (spoiler: stuff's changed, but is it enough?)
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Feb 10, 2016 21:58
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Joementum posted:With 100% of precincts reporting, we can now get an accurate delegate count from NH for the Republicans. UPDATE: New Hampshire rounds the percent of the vote total, not the delegate fraction, so Rubio got three delegates and Trump only got 10. I've changed the numbers in the quote above to reflect that.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:02
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e_angst posted:Everyone is exactly as liberal I, a broke recent college graduate, am. That's why Bernie is going to win in a landslide and have no problems nationalizing 17% of the US economy in a way that will somehow magically only result in tax increases for the top 1%. (Because gently caress having social programs be something that all of society has to pay a share for, our own taxes are too high! We can make the people we don't like pay for all of it! Sure, this is 100% different than all the countries we cite with successful single-payer health care, but gently caress the 1% so much!) You know he's released his proposed income tax brackets, right? He also wants to lift the cap on taxable income for the payroll tax (currently at $110,000, if I remember correctly) to make it more progressive. His top marginal rate is in the low 50 percent range. Truly loving the 1 percent who had top marginal rates of at least 70% until Reagan
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Feb 10, 2016 22:17
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MeatwadIsGod posted:You know he's released his proposed income tax brackets, right? He also wants to lift the cap on taxable income for the payroll tax (currently at $110,000, if I remember correctly) to make it more progressive. His top marginal rate is in the low 50 percent range. Truly loving the 1 percent who had top marginal rates of at least 70% until Reagan Love me, love me, love me, I'm a liberal
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Feb 10, 2016 22:18
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e_angst posted:Everyone is exactly as liberal I, a broke recent college graduate, am. That's why Bernie is going to win in a landslide and have no problems nationalizing 17% of the US economy in a way that will somehow magically only result in tax increases for the top 1%. (Because gently caress having social programs be something that all of society has to pay a share for, our own taxes are too high! We can make the people we don't like pay for all of it! Sure, this is 100% different than all the countries we cite with successful single-payer health care, but gently caress the 1% so much!) Username-post combo.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:30
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SavageBastard posted:Most of the cool kids (myself included) stay "unaffiliated" to rebel against the party label and then also have the option of voting wherever the fun is. A large portion of those "independents" are consistent Dems or Repub voters when it counts. On top of this, even if this wasn't how NH worked...are you really ready to argue "Hillary won if you exclude all the new people Bernie has comverted!!!" I mean, of course mitt wont, because his gimmick is misinterpretting articles then running away, but still.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:34
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fishmech posted:Does anyone know why there's still 17 precincts not reporting? Where's the source of that map?
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Feb 10, 2016 22:57
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Neurolimal posted:On top of this, even if this wasn't how NH worked...are you really ready to argue "Hillary won if you exclude all the new people Bernie has comverted!!!" While a poor argument for various reasons, Clinton winning if you exclude all the new people Bernie converted does have some merit. Remember that most states don't allow you to same day register or vote in whichever primary you wish. For instance, in Florida you've got 6 more days to register or change your party affiliation. If you miss that cut off, tough poo poo. Which negates the advantage of neophyte voters turning up to vote for the first time on election day. This will also hurt Trump the most in the Republican primary. Perhaps even far more than it would first appear given his anemic ground game.
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Feb 10, 2016 22:58
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Pinterest Mom posted:14th amendment, fam. #burntheconstitution
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Feb 10, 2016 23:15
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etalian posted:It's all driven by how NH has a open primary process It's not entirely open. Everyone who is registered to vote is registered as either Democrat, Republican or Unaffiliated. If you're registered as a Dem or Republican, you can only get that primary ballot. If you're unaffiliated, you can get either (although only one or the other, not both in the same primary) ballot. Requesting either the Dem or Rep ballot will formally affiliate you with that party. Then there's this weird part after you vote where you can re-unaffiliate yourself and go back to being with your own unaffiliated self.
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Feb 10, 2016 23:19
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Before you say "but that's insane" that's the actual legal logic used by the Supreme Court to uphold the constitutionality of felony disenfranchisement in 1974, 6-3. How was that not 9-0? The 13th amendment still allows for slave labor as punishment for a crime, how can it be honestly argued that the ratifiers of the 13th and 14th thought voting was a more important right than being freed from slavery?
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Feb 10, 2016 23:26
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Mulva posted:How was that not 9-0? The dissenters objected based on: A) jurisdictional issues (it shouldn't be in front of the Supreme Court in the first place), and B) The Equal Protection Clause governing the right to vote. Justice Marshall posted:In my view, the disenfranchisement of ex-felons must be measured against the requirements of the Equal Protection Clause of 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment. That analysis properly begins with the observation that because the right to vote "is of the essence of a democratic society, and any restrictions on that right strike at the heart of representative government," Reynolds v. Sims, 377 U.S., at 555 , voting is a "fundamental" right. As we observed in Dunn v. Blumstein, supra, at 336:
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Feb 11, 2016 00:05
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It really is worth noting that Bernie is a hero in New England, I can't even duck into a bong and dildo store without hearing the owner and a customer having a conversation about how cool he is, so it isn't surprising to me that he creamed Hillary but at the same time the other states gotta be viewed separately-I kinda think Iowa was bigger for him even if he still lost. For the record I have nothing against Bernie Sanders, bongs or dildos.
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Feb 11, 2016 00:41
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Phlegmish posted:Now let me tell you about a place called Seabrook, New Hampshire...they're Trump loyalists almost to a man. Have you ever been to Seabrook? It's exactly where I would expect Trump supporters to be found. I never drink the tap water when I'm in Seabrook.
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Feb 11, 2016 02:37
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Bifner McDoogle posted:It really is worth noting that Bernie is a hero in New England, I can't even duck into a bong and dildo store without hearing the owner and a customer having a conversation about how cool he is, so it isn't surprising to me that he creamed Hillary but at the same time the other states gotta be viewed separately-I kinda think Iowa was bigger for him even if he still lost. this. pretty much every left leaning person i know likes bernie more then clinton but will vote for either in the general. the worry i have is that if bernie is the general canidate, he will lose against someone like trump. because i know my dad and others are more afraid of socialism then a fascist. it would be germany 1933.
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Feb 11, 2016 03:05
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CountFosco posted:Have you ever been to Seabrook? It's exactly where I would expect Trump supporters to be found. I never drink the tap water when I'm in Seabrook. Seabrook is disgusting. It's kind of upsetting, to me, that the majority of republicans who live in my state chose Trump. I also do not know any Trump supporters from NH. I have a co-worker from Maine who likes him, and that's it. Literally everyone I talk to says the same thing.
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Feb 11, 2016 03:11
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