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Concerned Citizen posted:Vote Trump. Why settle for the lesser of two evils? Voting just for the yuks is a very real possibility this year.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:16
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Kings Of Calabria posted:Voting just for the yuks is a very real possibility this year. I like strategic chaos voting but would personally feel like the karma factor if your joke vote actually wins is too high. Just vote Clinton. Vote for a winner. It feels good when you vote for someone and they win.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:21
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Bip Roberts posted:I like strategic chaos voting but would personally feel like the karma factor if your joke vote actually wins is too high. Just vote Clinton. Vote for a winner. It feels good when you vote for someone and they win. I respect Clinton as a woman, a lawyer, an accomplished politician, and a person; but I will never ever in my life vote for her because of her past and present stances on issues that directly relate to my lifestyle.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:26
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If you live in a non swing state the logical thing to do is pay zero attention to the presidential race and instead become the most informed voter possible for all your local races for dog catcher or whatever.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:27
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Kings Of Calabria posted:I respect Clinton as a woman, a lawyer, an accomplished politician, and a person; but I will never ever in my life vote for her because of her past and present stances on issues that directly relate to my lifestyle. Hmm, maybe you have some growing up to do.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:36
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Bip Roberts posted:Hmm, maybe you have some growing up to do. I can't wait until I mature into a person who votes based on cable news polls instead of what I feel is right.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:39
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I called a 27% win for Trump yesterday, we'll see how he does.
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Feb 9, 2016 08:39
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oystertoadfish posted:confirmation bias is either the best or the worst thing about statistics, depending on whether you're a normal person or a professional who actually has to use statistics for things instead of just talking poo poo Like, elections have this certain pattern and then whoops something drastic happens. A whole political party suddenly goes up in smoke. Who'd a thunk it. But the octopus in the jar predicted the Whig Party would win!
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Feb 9, 2016 09:15
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Omi-Polari posted:Not a statistician but my understanding is that most of these predictors are totally worthless since we only have a handful of elections to go by, and an enormous number of variables that can gently caress everything up. You can make informed guesses, like who will likely win New Hampshire considering the state's culture, polls making Trump the probable choice, etc. but the rest is just a wash. Relying on a sample like Dixville Notch is just asking for a “Dewey Defeats Truman” situation, basically. They’re great predictors, till suddenly they are not. Scientific polls are as good as it gets.
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Feb 9, 2016 09:19
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It's also to say that parties are constantly changing and every election is different. Every president won doing something different from the last one. Whole new interest blocs (like the youth vote) come into being that didn't exist before. Or a major issue like sectionalism or civil rights breaks a party apart. Immigration could do it, and actually threatened to with the early Republican Party which tried to expand its base with Catholic immigrants while placating anti-slavery Knownothings who opposed Catholicism because they thought of it as another form of slavery lmao Ok I'll shut up now.
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Feb 9, 2016 09:26
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Hot take: I would like Bernie Sanders to win convincingly today.
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Feb 9, 2016 09:49
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Shinjobi posted:Hot take: I would like Bernie Sanders to win convincingly today. He was +20% in NH in RCP at the end of IA. Anything less than that would be shameful.
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Feb 9, 2016 10:23
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Mitt Romney posted:He was +20% in NH in RCP at the end of IA. Anything less than that would be shameful. Yeah I don't really care, Mitt. Move along.
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Feb 9, 2016 11:06
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Jim Gilmore is only down by nine votes!
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Feb 9, 2016 12:20
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Platystemon posted:Relying on a sample like Dixville Notch is just asking for a “Dewey Defeats Truman” situation, basically. They’re great predictors, till suddenly they are not. Let's dispel with this fiction that Dixville Notch doesn't know what they're doing. They know exactly what they doing.
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Feb 9, 2016 12:23
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I'm relistening to the 538 podcast and it's a wild and crazy ride with voter intentions. The stump speeches seem to be more effective especially in the weather conditions, so if Trump is not working hard, he might miss out cos Cruz and Kasich and even Rubio are definitely doing better in those.Joementum posted:Let's dispel with this fiction that Dixville Notch doesn't know what they're doing. They know exactly what they doing. Nothing to see here, everything proceeding as expected 
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Feb 9, 2016 12:27
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Joementum posted:Let's dispel with this fiction that Dixville Notch doesn't know what they're doing. They know exactly what they doing. Kasich ruined their predictive value by personally calling every voter. No way Kashit is winning it.
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Feb 9, 2016 12:34
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Phlegmish posted:Kasich ruined their predictive value by personally calling every voter. No way Kashit is winning it. In the past, many candidates visited Dixville Notch, but Kasich was the only one this year.
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Feb 9, 2016 12:45
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Has New Hampshire made Gilmore the POTUS yet?
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Feb 9, 2016 13:22
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Thump! posted:Has New Hampshire made Gilmore the POTUS yet? Still a couple of hours to go
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Feb 9, 2016 13:34
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Thump! posted:Has New Hampshire made Gilmore the POTUS yet? He’s only behind by nine votes!
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Feb 9, 2016 13:37
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Fill the Gill!
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Feb 9, 2016 13:37
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Oh boy oh boy, I really can't imagine anything I'd rather be doing than watching the country's slow decline into fascism, probably with a hot cocoa to keep the cold out.Joementum posted:Voters will, for the first time, be required to show an ID in order to vote. Valid forms of ID include a NH driver's license, NH DMV non-driver ID card, military ID card, passport, or a student ID card from most schools and college in New Hampshire. This is your daily reminder that requiring an ID to participate in an activity guaranteed in the Constitution is disgusting and barbaric and counter to the spirit of this great nation. That is all. (Please disregard if NH is a civilized place where ID are provided free of charge)
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Feb 9, 2016 13:43
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resurgam40 posted:Oh boy oh boy, I really can't imagine anything I'd rather be doing than watching the country's slow decline into fascism, probably with a hot cocoa to keep the cold out. I agree that it's p hosed up, however I'm not sure if private party primaries are protected in the same way that the general election is. Can anyone give some insight on the subject?
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Feb 9, 2016 13:44
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resurgam40 posted:Oh boy oh boy, I really can't imagine anything I'd rather be doing than watching the country's slow decline into fascism, probably with a hot cocoa to keep the cold out. I keep saying, if everyone was given subdermal identification implants at birth this wouldn't be an issue.
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Feb 9, 2016 13:45
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so if rubio isn't in the top two here the slow-motion train wreck we've been watching for the past seven months begins to rapidly pick up speed right
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Feb 9, 2016 13:57
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baw posted:so if rubio isn't in the top two here the slow-motion train wreck we've been watching for the past seven months begins to rapidly pick up speed right Depends on who's is in the top two and what the spreads are. If the top three are Trump at 30, Cruz at 20, and Rubio at 20, with the rest of the field splitting the remainder, then not much about the race has changed. If the top four are Trump at 30, Cruz at 20, Kasich at 20, Rubio at 15 with the rest of the field splitting the remainder, still not much has changed because Kasich has no realistic plan past New Hampshire. If Rubio and the Governors all tie at around 12%, then we're hosed. (Well, not really hosed, it actually just would make a Cruz nomination more likely.)
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Feb 9, 2016 14:01
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baw posted:so if rubio isn't in the top two here the slow-motion train wreck we've been watching for the past seven months begins to rapidly pick up speed right If he does badly enough, I think it lets the media run with the narrative of, "Rubio really is unprepared for the nomination," especially after his debate performance. Then its a question of whether Rubio can retain his status as the anointed one, or whether we get a Russian nesting doll effect where Bush gave way to Rubio who gave way to Kasich who might give way to Christie, etc. EDIT: Joementum has a better answer than me.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:02
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Now if the top four are Trump at 30, Cruz, at 20, Jeb! at 20, and Rubio at 15, we're in for a wild ride.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:04
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Joementum posted:Now if the top four are Trump at 30, Cruz, at 20, Jeb! at 20, and Rubio at 15, we're in for a wild ride. i notice all of your scenarios have cruz in second, even though that's far from a certainty. if it isn't cruz or rubio in second, then it's a governor. and then hopefully we watch the establishment try to consolidate behind kasich or jeb 
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Feb 9, 2016 14:08
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oystertoadfish posted:in florida elementary school every friday instead of the pledge they'd wheel a tv into the room and we'd sign along to this Confirming that we did this in Western NY after 9/11 as well, and that this is the reason I am a liberal who hates American values.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:12
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Yeah, my scenarios also all have Trump in first, which isn't a sure thing either The bigger point is that it's hard to see how Kasich or Christie could take a surge in NH and turn it into a viable campaign post New Hampshire. I think their ceiling is doing as well as Santorum did in 2012, able to hang on into the Spring, but unable to build the organization needed to take on a frontrunner when the contests start bunching up. Jeb! is the only one of the three with the resources to do that, but he's Jeb! so I'm not going to hold my breath for that to happen.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:12
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Rubio gonna do well.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:12
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If ˇJeb! somehow pulls off second, they might as well hand Trump the nomination. Kasich or Christie would have an uphill battle, but they’re workable candidates. ˇJeb! is a low‐energy loser. Rubio is somewhere in between. e: Yeah, Kasich and Christie lack ˇJeb!’s resources, but with a strong second‐place finish (“strong” compared not to Trump, but to third place), they’ll get resources fast. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 14:17 on Feb 9, 2016 |
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Feb 9, 2016 14:13
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Joementum posted:Yeah, my scenarios also all have Trump in first, which isn't a sure thing either this is good news. none of the governors are actually viable, rubio is the establishment's last hope. and he sucks
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Feb 9, 2016 14:15
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Platystemon posted:If ˇJeb! somehow pulls off second, they might as well hand Trump the nomination. Imagine a one on one debate between Trump and Jeb though 
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Feb 9, 2016 14:16
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baw posted:this is good news. none of the governors are actually viable, rubio is the establishment's last hope. and he sucks Yeah he sucks but he's the most appealing to dumb moderates
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Feb 9, 2016 14:16
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Feb 9, 2016 14:25
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Joementum posted:Depends on who's is in the top two and what the spreads are. I think you're being a little optimistic with the potential for a less than second finish for Rubio. Trump wins around 30, Kaisich comes next around 17, Cruz is third around 12, JEB! and Rubio both come in in the 10 range and the remaining merry fools split the rest. Really though, if Kasich can come in ahead of Rubio that's huge for our chances of watching the Republican field narrowed down to a pick between Chaotic Neutral and Lawful Evil. It restarts the coalescing of the establishment votes and begs all strains of media to talk about why Rubio sucks. Really though, what we're all truly hoping for in the end is that in his speech Rubio tries to get us to dispel with the fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:29
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So much they gave her a surprise victory over Obama 8 years ago when they could have crushed her.
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Feb 9, 2016 14:35
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