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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

OhFunny posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire

During every election year since 1968, the candidate with the plurality of Dixville Notch's voters has been the eventual Republican nominee for president.

CNN's going to have to come up with a new dumb factoid next time.

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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Holy poo poo!

9-9-9

Kasich-Trump-Cruz

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Dead Cosmonaut posted:

If Trump loses NH he's going to have problems

Bearing in mind that it's stupid to read absolutely anything into 35 votes, but Dixville Notch and Hart's location were always McCain/Romney/Huntsman territory, you'd expect Kasich to clean up there, not Trump to hold his own.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Trump/Cruz/Kasich/Rubio/Bush/Christie

More my hope (for chaos) then
a real prediction, but all the reasonable orders have been taken.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
68% of dems identify as liberal, in 2008 it was 56%.

Bernie gonna win (duh).

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Wolf teased that they have the ability to project at 8pm, suggests they might call the Democrats right away.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Xenophon posted:

Also, y'all were talking about the Seabrook Democratic results, but the Republican ones are good too:

2008:
Romney 52
Paul 20
Huntsman 10

Huntsman did great for a year he wasn't even running.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Fox is definitely going to call for Bernie at 8, maybe Trump too.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

fade5 posted:

Apparently Kasich borrowed Trump's ability to drain the soul (and votes) out of another candidate.

Trump used it on Carson, Kasich used it on Rubio.

Kasich didn't do poo poo but play it super safe and soak up the abandoned Huntsman vote.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

axeil posted:

And let's dispel once and for all with this fiction that Rubio isn't an empty suit. He's absolutely an empty suit.

Mad cred to any of the Republicans who try some variation of this in a speech tonight.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

axeil posted:

:siren: RUBIO UNDER 10% :siren:
:shlick:

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Korelle posted:

So if Rubio finishes below 10% here he's p. much done right? A result that bad + "robot Rubio" means Trump is going to troll him into a PTSD riddled shell just as he did poor Jeb.

Not really, there has to be an establishment candidate and Kasich is DOA in the next dozen contests. Jeb and Rubio still have money to try for that lane and have every reason to believe the other will be a pushover.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Josh Lyman posted:

What happens if Rubio doesn't break 10%?

He will still have (at least) the second best shot at the nomination.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

The X-man cometh posted:

No!! I need this to drag on into a brokered convention. 2 delegates keeps Marco in it longer, and keeps Trump/Cruz away from the nom.

This is the path to the contested nomination, though ideally Trump would be a bit softer and Cruz a bit more robust.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

lolllllll Not anymore he doesn't :fork:

They gotta go somewhere, Bush and Kasich don't really look all that more palatable because they got a few more percentage points in a much less conservative state then any of the ones following in short order.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
What percentage/placement does Christie need to stay in?

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

BUG JUG posted:

does rubio hold on til NV, try to pick up a half dozen more delegates, and then bargain them for a big boy seat at the convention (the smart move), or is he really in for the long haul?

He's not getting out until the non-Trump, non-Cruz has been anointed, that certainly isn't going to happen tonight.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Cardboard Box A posted:

Wait, what exactly does Jeb bring to the table there? Money?

Yes, South Carolina is a big state, the air war is much more important, if you have no money you have no campaign.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Kasich ran the Huntsman strategy and wound up with less votes, he should drop out.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
ABC News projects that Christie will finish 6th, Fiorina will be 7th, and Carson will be 8th

efb

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

OctoberBlues posted:

I really hope that if Rubio gets fifth place he proclaims that it was a three way split decision for third place. It is the only thing that can make this night better.

:ssh: Rubio's concession speech will sound remarkably similar to his regular stump speech.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

rscott posted:

Excellent call for unity

Smart play.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

OldSenileGuy posted:

I'm upset that Christie did so poorly because I wanted him to stay in long enough to clown on Rubio some more at the next debate.

I mean, he might still do that, but it's less likely now.

IF he could get into the debate I think he would, but how does he even crack the polling criteria to do that, wasn't he only in the last one by virtue of his support in NH.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

madey posted:

So does Kasich have to call Trump and concede? It seems weird to me that he would have to even though he's losing by less than hillary.

You have to call and concede when the networks call the election (unless you plan to demand a recount) the % doesn't mean much. Everyone does it because it's much less embarrassing to appear gracious tonight then like a sore loser when you're forced to concede the next day when the results are certified.

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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Cruz is delivering the speech Rubio gave last week.

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