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Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Fuschia tude posted:

He won 84% of the sub-30 vote in Iowa. I'm not sure that Millenials have much to do with him failing.

What was the turnout again among young voters in IA? 18%?

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Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Shinjobi posted:

Hot take: I would like Bernie Sanders to win convincingly today.



:)

He was +20% in NH in RCP at the end of IA. Anything less than that would be shameful.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Shear Modulus posted:

Did you not see that bombshell Politico article yesterday?

An article with anonymous sources about the Clintons is now considered a bombshell article?

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

Certainly completely destroys the whole "if he loses iowa he lost" that was so popular here.

He still might not win NH.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Spiros posted:

Is this the year voter turnout in the USA is finally not lovely?

2008 turnout was a lot higher than this year at least in Iowa.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

haha that's great

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

If only Jeb can inch up above Rubio and knock him down to 4th.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Josh Lyman posted:

Yes, but the CNN reporter said the precinct chair said they would "try" to allow the car people to vote.

The actual people in line, letting them vote was still treated like something novel.

Did you read about the 14 hour lines in Florida to vote in 2008 and 2012?

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Emanuel Collective posted:

Clinton got nearly 3/5ths of the votes in Seabrook in 08. This is a very bad omen for her

The polls were also indicating this.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Fullhouse posted:

I thought the meaningless and terrible charts gag was all played out, but boy you sure showed me!

I figured the context was good enough.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

why is this so far ahead of cnn's results

These guys are really good.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

argh im antsy, cnn's results have it 51 bernie to 41 hil in the dems, but the decision desk has 57 to 41

I think you can safely accept DecisionDesk's numbers. They typically call the races (correctly) before any of the networks too.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad
Rubio might get below 10%...

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

pathetic little tramp posted:

What's hilarious is Trump just absolutely destroyed the entire Republican field, leaving all of the worthless fools to wither and die on the side of the road.... and the media narrative is going to be about Kasich's rise.

Seeing Trump destroy GWB up until SC is going to be the greatest TV of all time.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

There's still 80% left to report.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

mannerup posted:

who will christie endorse when he drops out?

I bet he doesn't until there's a clear winner.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Montasque posted:



Christie is dropping out tomorrow.

Yep. He showed up, killed Rubio, and is now dropping out.

Maybe he held some kind of weird grudge over Rubio making it further in the VP process in 2012 than he did.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Or, maybe he legitimately believes Rubio is an empty suit baby back bench bitch, which he objectively is.

The only other person I've heard say or write 'back bench' this entire election is Jeb Bush.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Joementum posted:

From New Hampshire:

Bernie: 15
Clinton: 9

Those are preliminary numbers and could change once the vote is certified and we get solid counts of each congressional district.

Overall:

Bernie: 36 (21 soft pledged, 15 pledged)
Clinton: 32 (23 soft pledged, 9 pledged)

With superdelegates:

Clinton: 44 (24 soft pledged, 9 pledged, 12 PLEOs)
Bernie: 36 (21 soft pledged, 15 pledged, 0 PLEOs)
Uncommitted: 4 PLEOs

Clinton tied Sanders among registered Democratic voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-gets-harder-from-here-for-bernie-sanders/

quote:

Despite winning the state by more than 20 percentage points, the best Sanders could manage among registered Democrats was a tie. His large margin came from registered independents who voted in the Democratic primary. You must be a registered Democrat to vote in the Nevada caucus, though you can register as one the day of the election. In 2008, 81 percent of Nevada caucus-goers thought of themselves as Democrats. Just 58 percent of New Hampshire voters on Tuesday thought of themselves as Democrats.

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Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

turevidar posted:

This is a completely meaningless metric in NH, everybody registers independent so they can declare a party the day of the primary.

I want to see the relative turnout of each party for the primary and the election. How much of Trump's support yesterday was D voters picking the other ballot to get the max chaos outcome?

The only people who stay registered with a party longer than it takes to fill out a ballot are the absolute die hards and activists.

15% less than 2008 in NH.

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