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Ithle01
May 28, 2013

bull3964 posted:

Bystander effect may work in some cases, but painting it as a major cause will cause the next election to be lost too.

For example, I would point to Luzerne county in PA. It's traditionally democratic leaning. The last republican to carry the county in a presidential election was Bush 1988. 59.26% of the voters are registered Democrat.

Voter turnout in 2012 - 123,741 51.7% Obama / 46.8% Romney
Voter turnout in 2016 - 134,983 58.29% Trump / 38.86% Clinton

This is a county that twice voted for Obama, voted for John Kerry, and voted for Al Gore. However, Trump ran the gently caress away with the county with the highest margin since loving Nixon.

There is something fundamentally wrong there and it wasn't voter turnout.

I live in Lackawanna county and let me tell you that Hilary is absolutely despised in PA. Anecdotally, I can say that I know a few older women who basically said "Sure Trump is a chauvinist amoral jackass, but Hilary is literally the devil" and voted against her specifically instead of staying home and not voting like they had planned because the Republican candidate was Donald loving Trump. Months before the election there were signs over ever rural area that were 'Lock her up: Democrats for Trump' or 'Trump that bitch'. When family from California came to visit they were astounded by the venom of the rhetoric.

On top of that Hilary's message had absolutely no ground in PA. The rust belt is not a place where you want to say that everything is going well and anyone who says they're going to get rid of immigrants or affirmative action can be guaranteed to get the attention of a segment of the population that actually goes out and votes.

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Ithle01
May 28, 2013

bull3964 posted:

I live near Pittsburgh so I was mostly insulated from that.

Though, you prove my point to a bit. Even with that vitriol, Hilary still won in your country. Not to the margin that Dems usually win, but she won. She got 10k fewer votes than Obama, but Trump got 13k more votes than Romney. Even if every single person that voted for Obama and not for Hilary voted for Trump, a further 3k people turned out to vote specifically for Trump. That's were the attention needs to be.

I thought it was clear that I was agreeing with you that there is something fundamentally wrong here, but now that I reread that yeah I hosed up, my mistake. And there is a pretty distinct possibility my county goes red in the future which was previously unthinkable, but I don't have any evidence for that beyond anecdotes.

Ithle01 fucked around with this message at 01:40 on Feb 15, 2017

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