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Who will win the debate?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb! Bush
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Jim Gilmore
Antonin Scalia
View Results
 
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SNAKES N CAKES
Sep 6, 2005

DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

Alter Ego posted:

Two questions:

1) Did Marco Rubio do well enough to erase the memory of that New Hampshire disaster, and

2) Did Trump do well enough to win in South Carolina?

Probably yes to both, but you never know with Trump. He himself seems to regard Dubya's forthcoming involvement as a major threat.

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Rexicon1
Oct 9, 2007

A Shameful Path Led You Here

Xenophanes posted:

I think you underestimate the depth of disaffection within both parties. Neither party is responsive to its constituents; witness the insouciant transition that the media has rendered as the narrative changed from "Hillary unopposed" to "fringe voters turn out for Sanders," the presumption is that the Democratic core is monolithic and obedient to the needs of the Party, whereas the process is corrupted only by enthusiasts and idealogues. Democrats for Trump may not be supported by the preponderance of historical evidence, but evidence is turning out to be an unreliable guide in TYOOL 2016. I'm not a Trump booster (_5), but I do see that Bernie is very likely to lose critical momentum in the next few weeks while Trump might yet gain it, and I think that some who view Bernie as a protest vote will indeed see Trump as a better option for fighting against the dead hand of the corporatist establishment than Hillary.

I have a feeling most democrat voters see trump as an orange clown man with silly faces.

Korelle
Sep 18, 2010

Alter Ego posted:

Two questions:

1) Did Marco Rubio do well enough to erase the memory of that New Hampshire disaster, and

2) Did Trump do well enough to win in South Carolina?

Trump is 15-20% ahead in SC. He'd have needed to perform a live abortion mid-debate to lose that.

Emanuel Collective
Jan 16, 2008

by Smythe

Rexicon1 posted:

I have a feeling most democrat voters see trump as an orange clown man with silly faces.

Polls of all voters show Trump has something like a 70% disapproval rating. It's just that the leftover 30% is all in for him

Korelle
Sep 18, 2010

Alter Ego posted:

Two questions:

1) Did Marco Rubio do well enough to erase the memory of that New Hampshire disaster, and

2) Did Trump do well enough to win in South Carolina?

Trump is 15-20% ahead in SC. He'd have needed to perform a live abortion mid-debate to lose that.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

"a latino hothead thing"

holy poo poo, anyone else hear that?

Baku
Aug 20, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
Dem voters aren't going to flip to Trump, but the rhetoric he displayed tonight will absolutely help him in the general election and encourage self-identified moderate conservatives to vote. The idea that there aren't any GOP voters who think Bush was bad on foreign policy, Roe v Wade is a good thing, and Planned Parenthood probably isn't selling baby legs to pharmaceutical companies is absurd. I was raised by two of them, and his performance tonight is exactly what people like them want to hear.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Aliquid posted:

"a latino hothead thing"

holy poo poo, anyone else hear that?

Trump say that?

Chemtrailologist
Jul 8, 2007

lol


Rubio: Yes, criticizing a fellow candidate for not speaking Spanish will surely play well during these primaries.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Despera posted:

Trump say that?

CBS News commentators, can't tell you who; female

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

Zombies' Downfall posted:

Dem voters aren't going to flip to Trump, but the rhetoric he displayed tonight will absolutely help him in the general election and encourage self-identified moderate conservatives to vote. The idea that there aren't any GOP voters who think Bush was bad on foreign policy, Roe v Wade is a good thing, and Planned Parenthood probably isn't selling baby legs to pharmaceutical companies is absurd. I was raised by two of them, and his performance tonight is exactly what people like them want to hear.

But 62% of Republcans think going into Iraq was right so they are very much in the minority

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

Remember that GWB has a 67% approval rating with Republicans

http://www.scribd.com/doc/287367315/10-27-15-Republican-Party-toplines

Xenophanes
Nov 8, 2015

Zikan posted:

But 62% of Republcans think going into Iraq was right so they are very much in the minority

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

62% of Republicans fall into line with whatever they are told helps defeat the forces of secularism and compulsive abortionists.

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


i don't think trump's rhetoric on bush or pp was focus tested or part of a grand strategy, i think it is genuinely what he believes. that's how he operates. i just think the damage it will do to him in the south will outweigh any potential gain in moderates.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/698711680541454337

kitten emergency
Jan 13, 2008

get meow this wack-ass crystal prison

Xenophanes posted:

62% of Republicans fall into line with whatever they are told helps defeat the forces of secularism and compulsive abortionists.

I'm excited by this new math that helps trump win with only 30% of 47% of the electorate supporting him, it sounds very high energy

Despera
Jun 6, 2011

Pinely
Jul 23, 2013
College Slice
Even if Trump is finally slain by this debate, these pundits still have no loving clue what they're talking about. I mean, if I predict that the sun will go down at 10:00am, again at 12:00pm, again at 3:00pm, then finally get it right at dusk I still look like a moron even though I eventually arrived at the right answer through sheer persistence.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


owns

Cornflakes
Dec 3, 2006

Joementum posted:

Jeb! was wearing heels tonight.



is that bill loving frist behind jeb???

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Joementum posted:

Jeb! was wearing heels tonight.



It amazes me that height is a thing in the year of our Lord 2016.

Who gives a gently caress if they are short or tall. Personality matters more and Jeb! is clearly too low energy to be president.

SNAKES N CAKES
Sep 6, 2005

DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

CornflakeS.Pecially posted:

is that bill loving frist behind jeb???

Probably, he's an official supporter.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Joementum posted:

MSNBC. But it's over now.

if anyone has a clip I'd love to see it, I can't stand that little poo poo

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019




:confused:

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

CornflakeS.Pecially posted:

is that bill loving frist behind jeb???

not really unless you have raws showing to the right of Jeb

FuriousxGeorge
Aug 8, 2007

We've been the best team all year.

They're just finding out.

Listening to Glenn Beck will keep you closer to reality than listening to the views of the Chair of the RNC.

Attorney at Funk
Jun 3, 2008

...the person who says honestly that he despairs is closer to being cured than all those who are not regarded as despairing by themselves or others.
what the gently caress was that

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011

Attorney at Funk posted:

what the gently caress was that

Cirrhosis.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Zombies' Downfall posted:

Dem voters aren't going to flip to Trump, but the rhetoric he displayed tonight will absolutely help him in the general election and encourage self-identified moderate conservatives to vote. The idea that there aren't any GOP voters who think Bush was bad on foreign policy, Roe v Wade is a good thing, and Planned Parenthood probably isn't selling baby legs to pharmaceutical companies is absurd. I was raised by two of them, and his performance tonight is exactly what people like them want to hear.

...and yet he still claims he'll build a wall on the Mexican border, bomb the Middle East back to the Stone Age, and viciously insult anyone who disagrees with him.

He's still an unlikable rear end.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Zikan posted:

But 62% of Republcans think going into Iraq was right so they are very much in the minority

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

Remember that GWB has a 67% approval rating with Republicans

http://www.scribd.com/doc/287367315/10-27-15-Republican-Party-toplines

I don't want to unskew polls here but I feel like a significant part of that is a sort of feeling of team obligation, if that makes any sense. Dubya was a Republican, and Iraq was a Republican war, and we're Republicans, so we must be for it. But given a way out of that in the form of a Republican who's one of them and who is opposed to the war and to Dubya, I think a lot of that 62% would reconsider. If Trump gets the nomination there aren't going to be any Republican voters who stay home because they're such big fans of Dubya and Iraq and won't brook Trump's positions, is what I'm saying. The neocon plank of the party's official ideology has always been the one with the most tenuous direct popular support

Lycus
Aug 5, 2008

Half the posters in this forum have been made up. This website is a goddamn ghost town.

Attorney at Funk posted:

what the gently caress was that

America's future.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

Alter Ego posted:

...and yet he still claims he'll build a wall on the Mexican border, bomb the Middle East back to the Stone Age, and viciously insult anyone who disagrees with him.

He's still an unlikable rear end.
If you're one of these undecided voter people, doesn't that mean you want to at least half do some of those things?

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Attorney at Funk posted:

what the gently caress was that

TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

WRAP IT UP

CBS has info that Trump only criticized the war five days after invasion

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
"You wanna pick your nominee or not? You must put those boys in the poo poo."

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Alter Ego posted:

...and yet he still claims he'll build a wall on the Mexican border, bomb the Middle East back to the Stone Age, and viciously insult anyone who disagrees with him.

He's still an unlikable rear end.

Lots of intermittent, poorly educated, low income white voters out there that agree with all that 100%. That will be an even bigger strength in the general than in the primary, because that pool of voters is not strongly ideological and grabbing them doesn't cost Trump anything in terms of core conservatives

Rexicon1
Oct 9, 2007

A Shameful Path Led You Here
I wonder what the Mythical Undecided Voter thinks of all this.

Zikan
Feb 29, 2004

icantfindaname posted:

I don't want to unskew polls here but I feel like a significant part of that is a sort of feeling of team obligation, if that makes any sense. Dubya was a Republican, and Iraq was a Republican war, and we're Republicans, so we must be for it. But given a way out of that in the form of a Republican who's one of them and who is opposed to the war and to Dubya, I think a lot of that 62% would reconsider. If Trump gets the nomination there aren't going to be any Republican voters who stay home because they're such big fans of Dubya and Iraq and won't brook Trump's positions, is what I'm saying. The neocon plank of the party's official ideology has always been the one with the most tenuous direct popular support

Well that's probably true for the General. The issue is that Republican voters can be choosy during the primaries. Remember the SC is basically the state that gave it the GWB during the 2000 Republican primary after Mccain had a strong NH win. They love him.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Rexicon1 posted:

I wonder what the Mythical Undecided Voter thinks of all this.

30% trump, 20% bush, 20% rubio, 15% cruz, 10% kasich, 5% carson

FuriousxGeorge
Aug 8, 2007

We've been the best team all year.

They're just finding out.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

icantfindaname posted:

Lots of intermittent, poorly educated, low income white voters out there that agree with all that 100%. That will be an even bigger strength in the general than in the primary, because that pool of voters is not strongly ideological and grabbing them doesn't cost Trump anything in terms of core conservatives

Those people are already voting Republican or not voting, and Trump will not roust them from their slumber to do anything more than yell "TRUMP" into a phone at a pollster.

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