538 podcast: Shook Nate Shookver in Shookworld

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 538 podcast: Shook Nate Shookver in Shookworld

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

I have to say, I really like the article they put together about why their model hasn't counted Trump out yet.

Seems kinda reasonable, and it's pretty funny how changing any of their assumptions leads them to look more like the various other pollsters out there.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

# ¿ Oct 25, 2016 15:31

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# ¿ May 18, 2024 03:14

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

poppingseagull posted:

The more I watch 538 the more I think it is just an awful model. Just way too conservative with some of its numbers. Okay, sure Florida/NC/AZ are 50%, that's fine.

But how the gently caress is Virginia 85% a week before the election when it looks like this:

IMO, the best method is just use state polls for that state. Then maybe slightly modify based on national polls, but I'd lean towards just ignoring them too. If we are trying to figure out how Virginians are voting, adding in any data based on how people are voting outside of Virginia is just noise.

I think they're overdoing it on state-by-state correlations and probably on their 'momentum' trackers.

I suppose time will tell though?

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 16:42

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Azathoth posted:

Yeah, take a look at Colorado, where it's been almost a month since a poll hit that showed Trump with a lead yet they give him a one in four shot of winning there.

It's because they are looking at the movement of all the deep Red hellholes bordering Colorado. Which, yes, state lines are basically permeable and imaginary. But polls of people within those states are not imaginary. If you have every poll in Colorado showing Clinton winning, people are not going to cross the border from Wyoming to flip the state red.

# ¿ Nov 2, 2016 16:55

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Oh man, I still dream of my hometown's local Greek gyro place in Munster, IN just under the protecting eaves of Chicago.

We also have a great Lebanese gyro place in town here, in central IL of all places. I'm still not used to how they grill the meat instead of just slicing it straight onto the pita, but it's still pretty delicious and the owner is a great dude.

Really all I want is a giant mountain of gyro meat with enough feta to flavor the whole thing. I don't need the sauce or anything else. Well, black olives are okay I guess.

And if Nate Silver or one of his cronies pronounces it like the first part of "gyroscope" they are dead to me.

# ¿ Nov 6, 2016 17:43

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Bip Roberts posted:

That's schwarma dumb rear end.

Nah, it's very definitely gyros with some shawarma-like preparation thrown in.

http://therockrestaurant.net/our-menu/

# ¿ Nov 6, 2016 18:20

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Lager posted:

Oh, what's up fellow Bloomington-Normal goon?

The Rock is definitely the best around here, but Uncle Nick's is the only reason to ever go to Rockford. It's worth it to check that place out if you're ever anywhere near that shithole of a town.

http://www.seeyounextgyros.com/welcome.html

Hey neighbor! Yeah, I've been going there since it was tiny, over in its old location! Said still remembers me somehow. He's great.

Can't say I spent much time in Rockford. But if I'm up there I'll do it!

# ¿ Nov 6, 2016 21:45

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

I take it back, Nate. I take it all back.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2016 03:51

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

So what I'm getting is that the Monster Vote was real.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2016 16:08

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Old Kentucky Shark posted:

Nate actually ended up doing s pretty good job with data that was bad.

Yeah. I can't give him too much crap for being more confident than deserved, given the broad, systemic polling failures nationwide. Those aren't his fault.

His model was pointing at a deeper story that the polls weren't catching, and his model was right.

# ¿ Nov 9, 2016 20:18

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# ¿ May 18, 2024 03:14

dwarf74: Sep 2, 2012; Buglord

Baloogan posted:

he is seriously better at eating bugs than statistics / polling analysis

Well, after this, his reputation for poll aggregation is basically shot, and he shouldn't add "welches on bets" to the list. So good on him, I guess. I'll never trust his take on polling again, either way.

# ¿ Nov 12, 2016 23:34

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > 538 podcast: Shook Nate Shookver in Shookworld