THURS FEB 25 8:30pm ET CNN GOP Debate: A Thousand Years of Orangeness

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Who will win the debate?
	Donald Trump
	Marco Rubio
	Ted Cruz
	Ben Carson
	John Kasich
	C'mon, you know it's gonna be Trump

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

LIVE STREAMS

http://www.cnn.com/ will not require a cable subscription.

In case the official one doesn't work for whatever reason, these :yarr:

ones did last time:

http://www.livenewschat.eu/
http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/us/
http://www.hulkusc.com/

IRC

https://client00.chat.mibbit.com/?server=EU.synirc.net%3A%2B7001&channel=%23Poligoon

LOGISTICS

Venue: The University of Houston Moores Opera Center, Houston, TX
Moderators: Wolf :wow:

Blitzer, with CNN's Dana Bash, Salem Radio's Hugh Hewitt, and Telemundo's Maria Celeste Arraras
Sponsors: CNN, Telemundo, Salem Communications

THE CONTENDERS

With their greatest political achievement.

Claims to be Constitutionally Eligible

Senator from Calgary

Let's dispel with the fiction that Barack Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing.

Egyptologist

Karate Kid

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:14

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 6, 2024 06:29

Pick: Jul 19, 2009; Nap Ghost

Trump's in it to win it.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:16

Oiled and Ready: Oct 11, 2004; He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

I predict Marco Rubio will win according to the media and Trump will win every online poll (except perhaps the one in this thread).

Book it.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:18

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

I did some Joementum-style spreadsheeting over the past few days.

The only state that a non-Trump could win if the election was today is Texas, which has 158 delegates (almost 20% of the entire day). Those 158 are distributed proportionately with 47 going to anyone clearing 20% and 108 to congressional district winners + 3 party VIPs.

Knowing Trump will come out of every other state with a minimum of 300 and maybe 400+ delegates, Rubio has to keep Trump's numbers down in Texas or possibly lose on the spot. There is one and only one way for this to happen: Cruz has to win the state and everyone has to break 20%. If Cruz' support collapses, even Rubio winning wouldn't help him since Trump would win a lot of districts and probably get 40%+ of the delegates either way. On the other hand, Cruz is probably dropping out after Super Tuesday anyway and his delegates will be up for grabs, so every Cruz delegate is implicitly pro-Rubio to begin with. This means that Rubio has a surefire debate strategy: ignore Cruz and try to pull down Trump.

Okay, sounds good, anyone who's finished a high school math class can figure this out so Rubio will go after Trump tonight and I can place my bets accor

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/cruz-rubio-prep-for-brutal-debate-night-219760

quote:

Rubio�s playbook
Rubio has yet to aggressively engage Trump � and those briefed on his strategy say he�s unlikely to do so on Thursday night.
The Florida senator has concluded that going after Trump would accomplish little because the businessman�s supporters are deeply committed and unlikely to swing Rubio�s way. Inciting a confrontation with Trump onstage would create drama but wouldn�t help the senator gain voters, something he badly needs as he looks for his first primary win.
Instead, Rubio�s team has decided his best bet is to focus fire on Cruz. They think the Texas senator�s voters are less locked in and could swing Rubio�s way should Cruz fade. The only way to dislodge Trump, Rubio�s advisers say, is to turn it into a two-man race � meaning that they first need to get Cruz out of the way.

oh yeah, everyone running is a complete disaster factory, never mind

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:25

Scrub-Niggurath: Nov 27, 2007

HOT PREDICTION: Cruz and Rubio will eat each other alive while Trump looks on smiling

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:28

shadow puppet of a: Jan 10, 2007; NO TENGO SCORPIO

I never want this election cycle to end. With a narrowed field everyone is going to have to amp up their personality. Kasich is going to have to play so hard a common sense folksy that he'll pull out a meerschaum pipe and Carson will self-administer Propofol to reach herculean levels of drowse.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:28

Bouillon Rube: Aug 6, 2009

Evening classes are cancelled today, thanks GOP :toot:

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:28

MaxxBot: Oct 6, 2003; you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!

Disappointed that there's no Jeb! option

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:31

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

Disappointed that there's no Cthulhu option

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:32

Deki: May 12, 2008; It's Hammer Time!

Adar posted:

I did some Joementum-style spreadsheeting over the past few days.

The only state that a non-Trump could win if the election was today is Texas, which has 158 delegates (almost 20% of the entire day). Those 158 are distributed proportionately with 47 going to anyone clearing 20% and 108 to congressional district winners + 3 party VIPs.

Knowing Trump will come out of every other state with a minimum of 300 and maybe 400+ delegates, Rubio has to keep Trump's numbers down in Texas or possibly lose on the spot. There is one and only one way for this to happen: Cruz has to win the state and everyone has to break 20%. If Cruz' support collapses, even Rubio winning wouldn't help him since Trump would win a lot of districts and probably get 40%+ of the delegates either way. On the other hand, Cruz is probably dropping out after Super Tuesday anyway and his delegates will be up for grabs, so every Cruz delegate is implicitly pro-Rubio to begin with. This means that Rubio has a surefire debate strategy: ignore Cruz and try to pull down Trump.

Okay, sounds good, anyone who's finished a high school math class can figure this out so Rubio will go after Trump tonight and I can place my bets accor

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/cruz-rubio-prep-for-brutal-debate-night-219760

oh yeah, everyone running is a complete disaster factory, never mind

On the other hand, if he is going to come out hostile, it's probably best to not highlight the fact that you are.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:34

Montasque: Jul 18, 2003; Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Possible lines of attack in tonights debate

Rubio - > Trump on Foreign policy(Been hinting at this for a while)
Rubio - > Trump on ISREAL(Hinted at this yesterday)
Rubio -> Trump on electability
Rubio -> Trump TAX RETURNS
Rubio - > Cruz on electability
Rubio -> Cruz on being a liar

Cruz - > Trump on not being conservative
Cruz - > Trump Abortion/PP
Cruz - > Trump Healthcare
Cruz - > Trump TAX RETURNS
Cruz - > Rubio immigration
Cruz -> Rubio Dirty tricks
Cruz ->Rubio on 'WHOS THE BEST NOT-TRUMP"

Trump will counter punch in his own special way, Kasich will play the voice of reason, and Carson will say a few crazy things.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:53

Harold Stassen: Jan 24, 2016

How long is the debate?

# ? Feb 25, 2016 19:59

Oiled and Ready: Oct 11, 2004; He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Harold Stassen posted:

How long is the debate?

Not long enough.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:07

B B: Dec 1, 2005

Seriously? Another poll without Baby Hitler?

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:12

egon_beeblebrox: Mar 1, 2008; WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING IN LIFE.

So how much alcohol does everyone have for tonight?

I have 12 Icehouse Edges, because I want to regret all of this tomorrow.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:20

mdemone: Mar 14, 2001

Jesus God, the last debate is tonight and Super Tuesday is in five days. Time is moving too quickly into the future.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:22

Third World Reagan: May 19, 2008; Imagine four 'mechs waiting in a queue. Time works the same way.

egon_beeblebrox posted:

So how much alcohol does everyone have for tonight?

I have 12 Icehouse Edges, because I want to regret all of this tomorrow.

I got none since I am waking up early tomorrow for early voting in texas. It will be the last day it is available.

I kinda wanna wait for super tuesday to watch the entire thing, but I'd be stuck in a very tiny church the entire time.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:23

SpiderHyphenMan: Apr 1, 2010; by Fluffdaddy

mdemone posted:

Jesus God, the last debate is tonight and Super Tuesday is in five days. Time is moving too quickly into the future.

There's three post-Super Tuesday debates.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:24

SNAKES N CAKES: Sep 6, 2005; DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

There's three post-Super Tuesday debates.

And the first one is next Thursday, featuring the long-awaited Donald-Megyn reunion.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:37

mannerup: Jan 11, 2004; ♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

B B posted:

Seriously? Another poll without Baby Hitler?

I am writing in baby hitler

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:55

Mayor Dave: Feb 20, 2009; Bernie the Snow Clown

egon_beeblebrox posted:

So how much alcohol does everyone have for tonight?

I have 12 Icehouse Edges, because I want to regret all of this tomorrow.

I have a midterm that starts in the middle of the debate, otherwise I'd be blackout in 30 minutes

# ? Feb 25, 2016 20:59

Happy Noodle Boy: Jul 3, 2002

Cruz and Rubio are going to pull off a DBZ fusion to try to take on Trump

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:00

Red Dad Redemption: Sep 29, 2007

SNAKES N CAKES posted:

And the first one is next Thursday, featuring the long-awaited Donald-Megyn reunion.

I didn't realize he'd confirmed for that. Wonder if Megyn will hit him with old video clips like she did with Rubio and Cruz. He'll be in for a rough night in any event (or at least what for anyone else would be a rough night).

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:02

CubsWoo: Aug 17, 2005; Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Happy Noodle Boy posted:

Cruz and Rubio are going to pull off a DBZ fusion to try to take on Trump

Future answer to the children's joke "What do you get when you cross a shaved rat and a pool boy"

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:02

Ramrod Hotshot: May 30, 2003

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

HOT PREDICTION: Cruz and Rubio will eat each other alive while Trump looks on smiling

There's no way that Cruz and Rubio don't know that the end is near. It's time to throw a hail mary, attack Trump, and pray that something sticks. If they continue the same immigration slapfight they've repeated several times now, they both lose. Again.

It probably won't work, but I do expect both of them to go after Trump tonight.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:03

Concerned Citizen: Jul 22, 2007; Ramrod XTreme

joementum, can you please name the super tuesday thread you're going to make "Hillary sighed as she drew her katana." thanks in advance

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:03

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

SNAKES N CAKES posted:

And the first one is next Thursday, featuring the long-awaited Donald-Megyn reunion.

You know, if he sweeps Super Tuesday he doesn't really have to go and could hold another Trumptacular! But he will go because of Super Tuesday 2 the next week.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:10

Thump!: Nov 25, 2007; Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!

Baby Hitler is insulted once again < :mad:

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:17

marshmonkey: Dec 5, 2003; I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.; Switchblade Switcharoo

Any idea where is the debate going to be posted online first once it's over? I usually watch them while drunkenly posting itt - but I won't be home tonight until about the time it's wrapping up.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:23

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

B B posted:

Seriously? Another poll without Baby Hitler?

Actually, if you look closely, you'll see he's on there twice.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:27

Pontius Pilate: Jul 25, 2006; Crucify, Whale, Crucify

Might want to put the start time in the OP.

Oh it is in the title I am dumb ignore me

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:42

Shark Sandwich: Sep 6, 2010; by R. Guyovich

I fully expect the lack of Jeb won't stop Trump from randomly dunking on him

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:46

CubsWoo: Aug 17, 2005; Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Slaughterhouse-Ive posted:

I fully expect the lack of Jeb won't stop Trump from randomly dunking on him

I heard somewhere that GHWB and Barbara may be in attendance, may as well finish off Papa Bear since you got rid of the two sons

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:47

Sir Kodiak: May 14, 2007

CubsWoo posted:

I heard somewhere that GHWB and Barbara may be in attendance, may as well finish off Papa Bear since you got rid of the two sons

Nah, you just lament how disappointed he must be in his sons, one for knocking over a dictator that H.W. had the sense to leave in place, the other for the totality of failure that is Jeb. Like when Trump said that Barbara would have been a better candidate than Jeb.

# ? Feb 25, 2016 21:58