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Fabulous Knight
Nov 11, 2011

OhYeah posted:

Trump is a complete narcissist and if he gets into the White House, he will be the leader of the greatest empire that has ever existed on this planet. He will give jack poo poo to Putin.

Nah, I don't know. Trump said that he doesn't care whether or not Ukraine goes into NATO. That was literally what he said, "It gets in, I don't care, it doesn't, I don't care". He's always talking about how Ukraine is an European conflict and America shouldn't really be concerned with it. He would probably get in trouble for failing to address NATO but his personal views on the matter probably don't amount to much... like most of his views in general. He wants to be buddies with Putin and I doubt he gives a poo poo about Eastern Europe.

But hey, he won't win. Surely not.

Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 21:10 on Feb 28, 2016

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lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
vote Kte bush

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Russia is anywhere a Russian soldier has shed blood in service to the Motherland.

Also, anywhere that Russian speaking people have emigrated to.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Thug Lessons posted:

You're softballing it, they correctly identify the cause of their economic woes as caused by Western sanctions and oil price manipulation by the West's ally Saudi Arabia. So very predictably people are supporting the guy who's standing up to those countries more than anyone else on earth.

The Russian economy has been on the ropes for years. Like in Venezuela this was only barely disguised by the oil and commodities boom that was occurring. The EU sanctions would have had minimal effect if the underlying fiscal and economic position of Russia was better since the main restrictions they impose on things other than individuals is on extending credit to banks and companies linked to the Russian state or to figures close to senior state officials. Several Russian companies are having debt and financing crises and can't go cap in hand to the evil western capitalist banking sector for cash.

If you talk about trade sanctions then the Russian counter sanctions impacted a greater volume of cross border trade than the EU sanction on them did and were responsible for some of the greatest supply shortages and prices rises in Russia. The direct trade sanctions on Russia target arms and oil equipment which Russia can mostly build and supply domestically. Putin imposed the trade restrictions which had the most impact on the general Russian populace himself in order to reap the backlash stemming from those by linking them to the EU sanctions regime.

Saudi Arabia's move is aimed more at certain Western producers than Russia etc since they are the high cost producers rather than Russia who as a low cost producer can't be squeezed out of the market. The main difference is that these western economies have other areas of economic activity they can fall back on. That said if you've followed economic news at all then you should have noticed that the current situation has been devastating for the balance sheet of a lot of western oil companies. If the US really is driving Saudi oil policy in this case then some politicians are going to get crucified when it comes out.

Also, just as important is that Saudi Arabia's continued pumping is not the only driver of low oil prices. Low demand (like the general low demand for raw materials across the board) is another huge driver. That would not go away should Saudi Arabia sharply reduce their output. In addition there is a lot of spare capacity which has been mothballed due to the low oil prices, upticks in prices and demand would meet an increase in supply leaving the oil price low for an extended period. What drove the initial price drop of oil was not Saudi pumping but a huge amount of oil coming on the market from "unconventional" sources; those being the certain western producers I mentioned in the previous paragraph.

So yeah, "correctly identify the cause of their economic woes as caused by Western sanctions and oil price manipulation by the West's ally Saudi Arabia" my foot. The basic problem is that it has failed to reform its economy and has been far to reliant on raw material exports; it is now reaping the same reward as Venezuela (but less so since the level of graft and mismanagement in Venezuela was staggeringly beyond what is present in Russia).

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
That's why I used the word 'perceived'. When it comes to Putin's pupolarity, the true reasons for Russia's economic woes don't matter so much as who is blamed for them.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Friendly Humour posted:

That's why I used the word 'perceived'. When it comes to Putin's pupolarity, the true reasons for Russia's economic woes don't matter so much as who is blamed for them.

Yup, definitely. He has been very successful at focusing the ire of people on external enemies rather than domestic failings. That combined with the fact that he's been able to get Russia to throw its weight around on the geopolitical power table earns a lot of popularity.

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer

Munin posted:

That combined with the fact that he's been able to get Russia to throw its weight around on the geopolitical power table earns a lot of popularity.
See this is what I'm finding hard to explain. I know propaganda is a powerful tool but popularity by warmongering? Doesn't anyone in there stop and think that sending your army into sovereign countries might not be the best idea?

Lady Morgaga
Aug 27, 2012

by Smythe

anilEhilated posted:

See this is what I'm finding hard to explain. I know propaganda is a powerful tool but popularity by warmongering? Doesn't anyone in there stop and think that sending your army into sovereign countries might not be the best idea?

Fascists longing for lost empire. No I think they think that sending your army in sovereign countries is actually best idea.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

anilEhilated posted:

See this is what I'm finding hard to explain. I know propaganda is a powerful tool but popularity by warmongering? Doesn't anyone in there stop and think that sending your army into sovereign countries might not be the best idea?

What's wrong with mongering some war?

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
War is cool!

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Munin posted:

The Russian economy has been on the ropes for years. Like in Venezuela this was only barely disguised by the oil and commodities boom that was occurring. The EU sanctions would have had minimal effect if the underlying fiscal and economic position of Russia was better since the main restrictions they impose on things other than individuals is on extending credit to banks and companies linked to the Russian state or to figures close to senior state officials. Several Russian companies are having debt and financing crises and can't go cap in hand to the evil western capitalist banking sector for cash.

If you talk about trade sanctions then the Russian counter sanctions impacted a greater volume of cross border trade than the EU sanction on them did and were responsible for some of the greatest supply shortages and prices rises in Russia. The direct trade sanctions on Russia target arms and oil equipment which Russia can mostly build and supply domestically. Putin imposed the trade restrictions which had the most impact on the general Russian populace himself in order to reap the backlash stemming from those by linking them to the EU sanctions regime.

Saudi Arabia's move is aimed more at certain Western producers than Russia etc since they are the high cost producers rather than Russia who as a low cost producer can't be squeezed out of the market. The main difference is that these western economies have other areas of economic activity they can fall back on. That said if you've followed economic news at all then you should have noticed that the current situation has been devastating for the balance sheet of a lot of western oil companies. If the US really is driving Saudi oil policy in this case then some politicians are going to get crucified when it comes out.

Also, just as important is that Saudi Arabia's continued pumping is not the only driver of low oil prices. Low demand (like the general low demand for raw materials across the board) is another huge driver. That would not go away should Saudi Arabia sharply reduce their output. In addition there is a lot of spare capacity which has been mothballed due to the low oil prices, upticks in prices and demand would meet an increase in supply leaving the oil price low for an extended period. What drove the initial price drop of oil was not Saudi pumping but a huge amount of oil coming on the market from "unconventional" sources; those being the certain western producers I mentioned in the previous paragraph.

So yeah, "correctly identify the cause of their economic woes as caused by Western sanctions and oil price manipulation by the West's ally Saudi Arabia" my foot. The basic problem is that it has failed to reform its economy and has been far to reliant on raw material exports; it is now reaping the same reward as Venezuela (but less so since the level of graft and mismanagement in Venezuela was staggeringly beyond what is present in Russia).

Even if I grant all of this it doesn't change the situation much because the sanctions and oil price shock are still the proximate cause though not the ultimate. Were you saying that Putin isn't taking his fair share of the blame for the economy I could accept that, but what it seems like you're implying is that since Russia's economy is the underlying issue he should take most or all of the blame, which is nonsense. Russia simply would not be in an economic recession right now were it not the target of sanctions and economic pressure by the West and its allies, and you can't simply ignore this entirely to focus on structural issues or saying "well Putin was asking for it because of Ukraine".

One thing I wouldn't grant though is your take on Saudi's oil price move. You're correct that it targets North American oil producers, but it's also taking place in the context of a proxy war in Syria with Russia and Iran on one side and the Saudis and their allies on the other. The Saudi coalition absolutely wants to put pressure on those countries, who were much less prepared for an oil price shock than KSA, and it's part of their motivation for taking these steps. I agree with you that the US is not backing it, but they are letting the Saudis get away with it despite the effects on their own economy and their very real leverage in Riyadh, and I would suspect the consolation prize of harming two of its geopolitical foes does indeed play a role in that decision to let them run rampant.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

anilEhilated posted:

See this is what I'm finding hard to explain. I know propaganda is a powerful tool but popularity by warmongering? Doesn't anyone in there stop and think that sending your army into sovereign countries might not be the best idea?

You're acting like Russians accept Ukrainian sovereignty....

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

anilEhilated posted:

See this is what I'm finding hard to explain. I know propaganda is a powerful tool but popularity by warmongering? Doesn't anyone in there stop and think that sending your army into sovereign countries might not be the best idea?

Russia stronk. World see Russia as weak and disrespect Russia. Russia must send army to take land back and show Russia stronk!

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/704242124926132224
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/704242692637773824
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/704245380670758912
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/704245639157313536
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/704246029802143744

Woman walking around the Moscow metro with a decapitated baby head shouting "I'm a terrorist".

drilldo squirt
Aug 18, 2006

a beautiful, soft meat sack
Clapping Larry

Im really glad these aren't loading for me.

Palpek
Dec 27, 2008


Do you feel it, Zach?
My coffee warned me about it.


Brown Moses posted:

Woman walking around the Moscow metro with a decapitated baby head shouting "I'm a terrorist".
I am sure this is a planned terrorist act and not just a tragic story of a severely mentally ill person.

Imapanda
Sep 12, 2008

Majoris Felidae Peditum

Palpek posted:

I am sure this is a planned terrorist act and not just a tragic story of a severely mentally ill person.

It could be she's mentally ill.

It could be she's imitating extremism because she doesn't like Islam at all, it's not an unknown issue to act like your geopolitical enemies so bystandards will be hopefully thinking "oh dear, that person and their way of life should not exist." thus ramping up more anti-arab/anti-islam extremism by itself.

It's probably just the typical case of radicalized immigrant though. Poor baby. :(

Palpek
Dec 27, 2008


Do you feel it, Zach?
My coffee warned me about it.


Imapanda posted:

It could be she's mentally ill.

It could be she's imitating extremism because she doesn't like Islam at all, it's not an unknown issue to act like your geopolitical enemies so bystandards will be hopefully thinking "oh dear, that person and their way of life should not exist." thus ramping up more anti-arab/anti-islam extremism by itself.

It's probably just the typical case of radicalized immigrant though. Poor baby. :(
No, it's not a typical case of radicalization - a typical radicalized immigrant joins an organization, contacts a group or supports terrorist acts (in extreme cases takes part in them) sure but doesn't walk aimlessly around a metro for hours with a decapitated baby head. It's mental illness. It's fueled by current events and political situation sure and it's tragic but it's not somebody getting righteously angry at something, it's pure insanity.

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer
"See this is yet another reason why we need to bomb the gently caress out of TurkeySyria."

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005


:smith: Jesus, how terrible.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Thug Lessons posted:

Even if I grant all of this it doesn't change the situation much because the sanctions and oil price shock are still the proximate cause though not the ultimate. Were you saying that Putin isn't taking his fair share of the blame for the economy I could accept that, but what it seems like you're implying is that since Russia's economy is the underlying issue he should take most or all of the blame, which is nonsense. Russia simply would not be in an economic recession right now were it not the target of sanctions and economic pressure by the West and its allies, and you can't simply ignore this entirely to focus on structural issues or saying "well Putin was asking for it because of Ukraine".

Why not? Putin invaded Ukraine, seizing Crimea and setting up a puppet state in the Donbass. That got him sanctions. Then he made counter-sanctions that made things terrible for Russians. And you say it's all the West's fault?

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

She said she did it as revenge against her husband who was cheating on her, but that makes little sense as the child she murdered isn't hers or her husband's but rather the family's that hired her as a nanny. She's a nutcase. Poor kid. :smith:

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




This is very hosed up. :smith:

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Russia joins the American club to learn why public mental healthcare is important.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Friendly Humour posted:

Russia joins the American club to learn why public mental healthcare is important.
Mental healthcare has been virtually non-existent throughout the Soviet Union.

Anne Frank Funk
Nov 4, 2008

kalstrams posted:

Mental healthcare has been virtually non-existent throughout the Soviet Union.

Uh, slow progressive schizophrenia? :colbert:

anilEhilated
Feb 17, 2014

But I say fuck the rain.

Grimey Drawer

Pierogi posted:

Uh, slow progressive schizophrenia? :colbert:
Sounds like the USSR alright.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Found a rare video of the low-loader that transported the MH17 Buk filmed from the front and up close

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/704334886887358464

Rincewinds
Jul 30, 2014

MEAT IS MEAT

kalstrams posted:

Mental healthcare has been virtually non-existent throughout the Soviet Union.

That's not true, if you say that great leader is not so great, you will get all the medical attention you never needed.

Nitrox
Jul 5, 2002

Brown Moses posted:

Found a rare video of the low-loader that transported the MH17 Buk filmed from the front and up close
What makes it distinguishable from the rest of the truck fleet?

Plan Z
May 6, 2012

What's the current estimate of the number of Russian troops in Ukraine up to right now? I'm arguing with a guy who claims there are only 52, citing some lovely-looking video.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Plan Z posted:

What's the current estimate of the number of Russian troops in Ukraine up to right now? I'm arguing with a guy who claims there are only 52, citing some lovely-looking video.
Are you certain that he is interested in hearing you out?

Plan Z
May 6, 2012

kalstrams posted:

Are you certain that he is interested in hearing you out?

That, and i'd like to know as well since I fell out of news about the conflict.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Nitrox posted:

What makes it distinguishable from the rest of the truck fleet?

The truck's owner, from whom the truck was stolen from, said the paint job was unique, and it's always seen with that red trailer. There was a phone number on the side, but they removed that after July 17th.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Brown Moses posted:

The truck's owner, from whom the truck was stolen from, said the paint job was unique, and it's always seen with that red trailer. There was a phone number on the side, but they removed that after July 17th.

The Russian Army is transporting anti-air defense systems using stolen trucks.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless

Friendly Humour posted:

The Russian Army is transporting anti-air defense systems using stolen trucks.

It's happened before - didn't Daesh get a truck with a Texas business registration / decals?

The black market provides.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Plan Z posted:

That, and i'd like to know as well since I fell out of news about the conflict.
The video mentioned is an alleged SBU report that I have not seen on official channels of SBU or Espresso.tv (though I have not specifically looked for it), which says that Security Service of Ukraine have investigations on 56 citizens of Russian Federation. Given the freezing nature of the conflict for the past year or so, there are no recent estimates that would go into great detail on the matter, that I know of at least. If we look at this piece by British military think tank from March last year, for example, then peak simultaneous presence of Russia soldiers is estimated at 12 thousand in eastern Ukraine, with some 30-40 thousands stationed in Crimea and total of some 40-50 thousands on the eastern border of Ukraine.

lollontee
Nov 4, 2014
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Outsourced materiel provisions officer - fancy new way to grand theft auto

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

1) If you think the United States has any control over what Saudi Arabia sells oil for I don't know what to say. We don't, and never have, and if we did US economic history would be different (thr 70s). Further, at this point it's very doubtful they are even in control of pricing, despite their attempts to maintain appearances of still holding cartel power, because it's not the 70s anymore and oil production is globalized.

2) even if we did control the oil price and are setting it just to gently caress over Russia, that would actually be worth it because when Russia was riding high they started getting very aggressive to their neighbors and invaded one. Putin has shown that he's aggressive when strong and less aggressive when weak so the only rational choice he's given the world is to try to weaken him.

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Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Best Friends posted:

that would actually be worth it because when Russia was riding high they started getting very aggressive to their neighbors and invaded one.

Two.

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